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FED pulls more levers
Will it be taken as "fear/panic" like the emergency cuts or good to provide a backstop for the economy?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/federal-reserve-unveils-details-of-its-much-anticipated-main-street-lending-program.html
Thanks Jerry for your insights into the internal workings of the market.
In the meantime, virus cases are at 400K and we could be 1M+ this time next week. What a mess while our leader blames everyone else and does not take responsibility for anything! Sigh :(
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/07/trump-blames-who-for-getting-coronavirus-pandemic-wrong-threatens-to-withhold-funding.html
Interesting Keep ... That lines up with my thinking of testing the lows by OPEX next Friday. Let's see how this plays out!
In a Bear market, OPEX weeks tend to behave opposite like we had in March.
AMEN Brother ... My "gut" is telling me this move takes us to lower lows as early as next week! But my gut has been more wrong than right lol
Same here ... more comfortable in the bear camp especially at the top of the range. I had 2711-2740 gap fill as the target and was expecting a close at the highs (2740) but the reverse happened. Went with gut and shorted the open and holding SPXU from 19.
Let's see if the downtrend takes hold tomorrow into a continuation and end of the rally up! Gap up of 90-100 points tomorrow could wipe out my gains but willing to take that risk given today's action!
Good call as always Jerry!!
In your defintion, would a red bar today be a "close down" or do we have to close below yesterday's close?
Hmmm ... Why? Just head down lol
Yeah, will watch the day/close today to see if there is any juice left to power this up above 2750 towards 2800-2850.
If we close negative, holding short till lower lows!
Went short at SPX 2750 open this morning
Ahhh ... don't trade that :)
RTY == Real Time Y?
2850 possible too ... Issue is a lot of folks here are "itching" to go short like I am! :)
I'm hoping that is not a 'contratrian indicator' ... maybe all the smart traders are on this board and the rest lathered up buy the dip bulls are on the other Ihub boards! lol
Good advice ... This has the potential to run all the way to 0.5 retrace close to 2800.
Indeed long in the pile ... gap down tomorrow?
Ahh ... didn't realize there were multiple shadows! :)
Shadow says no bear market?
Bullish already? Wow!
Will do that buddy .... been there done that too! :)
After 3-4 weeks of regular Monday gap downs, they change the rules
They will use any positive news to ramp this up ... NY peaking this week or Italy records lowest coronavirus death rate in two weeks
Excellent analysis by shadow as always
Of the 4 possibilities, since the market did not break down below 2440 even with such bad employment numbers last week, I had the "look above and go" as a most probable outcome in the back of my mind on Friday. This forced me to cover my short from 2600.
Futures hinting in that direction with a "jump the creek" over the 20 dma and trendline that will attract new buyers and force more short covering to take this to 2700.
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street
Yep I was a novice that unfortunately started my investment/trading in late 1998-99 and was one those that capitulated and sold when the "pain" was too much after the dot com crash! Watching CNBC for advice didn't help too :)
Understood and aligned
Also think that bear low is anywhere between 1000 - 1800. Glad to bounce ideas and hear other's perspective as we all navigate through this together
Ha ha ... good observation!
For the history books, it will be a 2020-2021 recession but the bear market may be over this year, IMHO.
Awesome information Jerry!
Thanks for guiding us through this bear market given your experience. I went through the 2001-03 and 2008-09 bear markets "clueless" and got smoked both times! :)
Panic of 1907 ... 10-12 years earlier
“History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes,” - Mark Twain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907
gdl, this scenario is back off on my mind too but I believe there was a sharp defationary recession then. Market declined ~47% and recovered to new highs within a year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920%E2%80%9321
I still think we fall at least 50% from the highs in the next 2 months but IMHO this is not a 2 year bear market. When this thing bottoms, the BULL will be ROARING and we will see new highs within months I think.
Ironic that it is 100 years later!
Yes Jerry, made my money on my 3x short
Not an adept day trader like some of you .... try to pick a trend over a few days/weeks. Glad to hear you are recovering well.
In the middle of the range is a difficult place to be. Short in the 2600-2800 area and long in the 2000-2200 area is what I'm thinking for now.
Happy Hour Extended through April 17th
I think they close it 2440-2450 to keep everyone guessing over the weekend if it will gap up or down! lol
2447 has to give in on a closing basis for that to happen
I know ... crazy stuff! Shorted in the 2600 area looking for lower lows but am not sure now.
Bailed ... If today's bad numbers can't take it down much, this could go to 2700 next week! Not risking going long for now but on the sidelines.
Really strange indeed
If it doesn't decisively break down this afternoon, will have to bail. Not liking this consolidation under the 20dma.
Agree gdl, I really don't see this going above 2600 anytime soon.
Holding/staying short for now.
They've got everybody now "convinced" that the Market will Rally inspite of bad numbers ... Can they do it a 3rd time tomorrow?
Yes lots of positives for us to reflect on and appreciate life/family/nature!
I'm hearing the same thing with drastic improvement in pollution levels back in India with this 21 day lockdown! People can finally see that the SKY IS BLUE! :)
Thought I'd share this poem that I received today with this group:
We fell asleep in one world, and woke up in another.
Suddenly Disney is out of magic,
Paris is no longer romantic,
New York doesn't stand up anymore,
the Chinese wall is no longer a fortress, and Mecca is empty.
Hugs & kisses suddenly become weapons, and not visiting parents & friends becomes an act of love.
Suddenly you realise that power, beauty & money are worthless, and can't get you the oxygen you're fighting for.
The world continues its life and it is beautiful. It only puts humans in cages. I think it's sending us a message:
"You are not necessary. The air, earth, water and sky without you are fine. When you come back, remember that you are my guests. Not my masters."
Yep virus all over and these kids are not taking it seriously at all!
Got it en masse to Austin, TX! Sigh :(
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/austin-spring-breakers-coronavirus-trnd/index.html
Reason for End of March Rally
DAN NILES: BEAR MARKET RALLIES & PENSION REBALANCING
He's calling for a 50% haircut from the peak
https://www.danniles.com/articles
https://www.danniles.com/interviews
DAN NILES: PENSION FUND REBALANCING, BEAR MARKET RALLY, & POTENTIAL FOR MARKETS TO GO LOWER
https://www.danniles.com/interviews
Yep, agree there
We need to "refuel" to make a charge back above 2600+