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Lol is it just me or did he remove imetelstat grom the linkedin profile?
Did he just get slapped for revealing too much?
The last few months from $2 was an interesting ride. The next few weeks are going to be amazing!
For every short attack on GERN there is a more violent cover averaging sp higher (in 2018). Get in before the cover to ride the easy bounce
The larger war chest enables Geron to execute on multiple options. The increase is a corporate projection JNJ will aggressively develop and market Imetelstat in new applications.
The chance JNJ would let Geron walk away with a drug with unprecedented survival rates on a terminal condition is close to nil. Especially after the right to try law.
These William Hait slides look like they are from early 2017.
For proof Imetelstat is part of JNJs filings, please refer to the 4/28 pipeline update on their site
Such is the masterful execution of Scarlett having the experience from selling multiple companies. Creating this shelf covers Geron against multiple scenarios during these times of negotiations. In order for Janssen to predict Geron's counter moves, those calculations now must account for larger reserves. Capital, or the ability to execute multiple options, protects Geron from lowball offers.
The safety profile is reviewed by the FDA and given a continuation after careful review of the circumstance. It granted Fast Track Designation.
Raising capital is a signal of the Opt In decision after Janssen's continuation announcement. The golden age for Geron is beginning with this ramp up
And so begins the ramp up. 8 by June
Buyout before 9/30
No one can deny there is a lot happening in the background for no news. Whether it be precisely timed articles to lower price points or tells of further investments and acts of stay on course. There is something inexplicable for Janssens actions and perception of development progressing as planned. This may be one of the largest binary events in 2018.
To ignore the possibility of 2018 FDA approval is missing due diligence. A drug with Fast Track Designation can be approved for NDA if the drug fulfills an unmet need or shows improved efficacy over the existing treatment. Imetelstat does both. This can be approved after the phase 2 study that just ended. Janssen is a beast that knows how to bring drugs to market with utmost discretion.
Nothing is certain but GERN is a definite buyout assuming Imetelstat is as good as it is looking so far.
I wouldnt expect IR to commit to a 2018 approval or buyout for that matter until its official.
It has a ticket to finish in 2018, whether they can cash it in depends on JNJ
They already granted Fast Track Designation towards the effort to bring this to market quicker
That is an undervalued point most investors do not make the connection on. Medically proficient contributors have pointed it out but most investors tend to stick to the 3 phases after a drug is developed: 1) safety 2) efficacy 3) peer comparison.
If a drug is deemed first in class and shows survival benefits, it will be essential to bring to market sooner than later. The amount of lives lost between a P2 and P3 trial does not warrant a peer comparison if it already displays improved results over its peers.
In the case of Imetelstat, there is no equivalent peer
The FDA granted fast track having assessed the safety profile. The drug is extending life beyond all expectations for RR patients. The world needs Imetelstat to fill a dire gap. FDA approval is a question of 2018 vs 2019.
Actually, in that statement you are just repeating another FUD article trying to add momentum. Do not pretend to believe a lie to conceal your attempt to misdirect investors hoping it would mitigate your losses. 3 months from now, it will not be excusable to pretend the FUD article fooled everyone. It's only fooling fellow shorts themselves to short more. That short momentum fades quickly. Don't be the one caught holding the contract when it gaps up again
All signs point to an FDA approval. Perhaps an early approval. JNJ will buyout rather than payout. Continuation decision is a no brainer with its unprecedented survival stats.
Simplified- a short enters into a contract and borrows a share to sell it with an obligation to return the share in the future. If a short enters into the contract when the share price is $2, it would sell a share for $2 immediately. In the future if it's worth $4, they would need to purchase a share at $4 to cover/return. The gains are easy but at high risk due to the unlimited upside potential. Buyout news would exponentially skyrocket a price. If the shorter shorted 1000 shares of GERN at $2 and the price is $4, the short would initially make $2000 and buy those shares back later for $4000. Simply put, it's the reverse of purchasing a stock- you are selling it without actually owning it.
For everyone concerned of the article on the partnership, you need to realize how much money is at stake. There's about 35 million shares shorted. Two months ago, GERN was trading at $2 for a long time before investors realized median survival has not been reached. Investors threw money at GERN with consideration it can be a drug deemed essential to market by the FDA. This massive gain signaled short traders the stock may adjust down. A tight-lipped partnership in the biotech market is every shorts dream- easy to manipulate investor sentiment and thus price.
During it's shoot up in March, it would have cost shorts over $100 million to cover. Despite your personal feeling for shorts, they are extremely resourceful in spreading doubt using a repeatable process- spread doubt and coordinate a steep sell off to prime a panic sentiment.
An negative article in March from Alpha Exposure & Adam Feuerstein and multiple advertisements of potential lawsuits sent prices tumbling down to a modest 50% gain. A month later, the price still stands at 100% gain from its value two months ago. These gains push shorts against the wall once again.
It's not easy to just accept losses of this magnitude. The short article and morning selloff today can be seen as an unfortunate event for many longs- it was after all, a solid 5% win for the shorts. The remarkable note to be made is the selloff and article had only a 25% effectiveness on share price it had a month ago- signalling an enormous improvement in sentiment towards the value of GERN.
Here's what to expect- Gradual increases in GERN's share price and another short attack against GERN in the next 2 weeks. If unsuccessful, this may trigger a reduction in short stake assuming there are no meteoric gains in share price
If Imetelstat brings in 4B on just MDS and MF alone, the payments from JNJ would be worth 1B plus 800M/year. No company would pass up this golden goose with a lowball offer
Survival numbers of a treatment for a hopeless RR state is key for FDA approval. When all the best solutions modern medicine provides is not enough, the patients desperately needs an answer.
In steps Imetelstat with unprecedented results that include complete remissions. A novel treatment attacks cancer from a new angle. One that solves a problem lacking a solution. Results showing unheard of survival rates thus far, beating expectations by 2-300%. Is this the future for how cancer should be treated? 2 indications may justify testing its mettle against an advanced form of the cancer.
This is a lull before a violent storm in oncology.
There's no obligation for Geron to accept an offer below what they will make back in a few years.
Agree Janssen is in control right now. There's a reason why they try to keep results hushed. By keeping results hushed, they are at advantage on other buyers. The continuation decision is a key revelation that would trigger competition. Buy the goose before everyone sees it lay the golden egg.
Geron would not sell for any less than 30. Even if Janssen does not buyout, the royalty payments would allow any buyer to recuperate the funds in a few years. A fraction of the time for them to develop Imetelstat. It's free cash for the owner of the contract if Imetelstat is successful.
Continuation decision signals buyers to extend their offers and jnj to payout. Janssen will not let Geron get to the continuation decision date.
What's the realistic value of the MF MDS and AML markets?