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runncoach, I thought you were talking about Anavex with the missed endpoints comment, is that correct??
Fair enough. I'll say one thing, I'm a strong buyer at shares below $2 in that event... I believe they can work us out of the crazy floor, just have to be patient and not lose heart...
So, about a $7 million market cap, with $40 million in cash and a tangible book value of around $25 million, with upcoming trials in MS and Fragile X??
Wow, that would be very harsh! There would be a sell off no doubt and it would probably over sell initially with a bounce back to something close to more reasonable all things considered, IMHO... I think NTRP had about twice the number of shares and maybe less in cash? And NTRP didn't have the additional trials on deck...
I sincerely would think that they could go to a big pharma and get something like $50 million (half of which is already there in cash) for everything, including licenses, patents, etc....
Urge2surge, where have you been???
What do you think our trading floor is if the results disappoint??
Cyosol, what do you make of the trading volume and behavior this past Friday?
Does Synaptogenix have the trial data as of right now??
I know that none of you "know", I'm curious if you think that they likely do given the timing and expectation of the read out in 3 weeks or so...
The observation period is still ongoing for the final enrollees so the trial is not officially over but certainly the data points for the read out are closed by now, right?? I'm thinking that once those data points are closed, they can be unblinded, but I don't really know...
I think Anavex is a Scam!
That sounds about right…
If the results are what we are all hoping for, I believe the market will sharply correct to something closer to the real value of the company... We could be looking at a massive gap up when trading resumes...
One thing that is different is that there is no remaining motivation to manipulate the stock price down, it is free to move forward now...
It's a stunningly horrible deal!!
They are getting the ability to purchase approximately 4 million shares at a substantially lower price than they could possible get in the open market, and their invested capital sits at the top of the capital structure and gets paid before any of us do, and with the amount of existing cash, I would say their deal offers very little risk (close to zero) with exceptional upside. It had to be a very easy sell to fully subscribe!
It's bullshit and a breach of management's (Silverman) fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.
Now, I do think it is only neutral or bullish as far as expected trial outcome. There is no way that Katalyst does this if they have any reason to think the trial results will be bad....
I think Alkon absolutely believes what he is saying! And, I'm not sure how clued in he and Tuchman were to this private placement until right before it was announced...
I think this is all Silverman...
There was an investor call right after the company separated from Petros and SNPX was created. The question of needed cash and potential dilution was raised and I think Tuchman responded that they didn't expect to need to do so for some period of time. Interestingly, when the written transcript of this call was released, these comments were scrubbed out of it and only a few days later, the Silverman squared private placement was announced....
I do believe there is a place for a deal like this, BUT not here, where the company has adequate cash to weather the storm of the possibility of negative results. This deal would make more sense AFTER negative results... These deals are for companies that don't really have any choice and have to raise cash to stay in business...
Bold move by the Silvermans!
Silverman is a crook! But, I have strong confidence in Alkon, Tuchman and the science.
This stock has been deeply undervalued, all things considered, from a risk/reward standpoint and likely was manipulated into this position (easy on a low volume stock like this) and is now free to release to a more reasonable valuation heading into the trial results announcement. All, IMHO of course.
I don't think any of them will show up here.
Agreed!!!
This deal looks insane if I'm understanding it correctly, whereas a straight stock and warrants purchase carries the downside risk, they've mitigated the downside by going the preferred stock route and jumping in front of everyone for payback in the worst case scenario. I don't see where they are taking ANY risk given the company's cash position and low burn rate, and they are rewarded massively on the upside...
Why did the company need to do this at this point in time?? This deal is for a company that is about to fizzle out of existence due to a lack of cash... What about the fiduciary responsibility to us shareholders???
There should be some legal recourse for us shareholders, I would hope...
I just realized I and you responding to me meant Silverman, not Silverstein...
I need to go back and read through all of this carefully, this may be worse than I thought. Is this a risk free deal for these "investors" given the cash on hand??
You've been right! It's a shame he found his way into this company...
IMHO, this explains why this stock has fallen to current price levels with relatively low volume. I was hoping this wasn't the case as it takes shameless balls to make this move with the cash on hand and big news coming within a month...
My gut is that neither Alkon nor Tuchman had much to do with this and that this is another Silverstein squared deal...
I would be willing to bet that they could have sold an option to a Big Pharma for better terms than this....
My disgust about this aside, this reinforces the stock's floor (which is pretty much the current price) and likely bodes well about their confidence in success. They are just grifting a piece off of those of us that have been carrying the risk over time...
Theburg, I merely chose simple numbers to illustrate my point. Frankly, even considering our relatively VERY LOW fully diluted number of shares, my examples are quite conservative considering that we could have better data than Biogen whose partnered drug generated a $20 billion market reaction...
$200 per share would ONLY be approximately a $2.5 billion market value. Any future success estimation must include fully diluted shares as that would instantly become reality. Current shares are more relevant for downside valuation and we have approximately $4 per share in cash right now...
Given some of the management comments, I believe the most likely scenario is a big pharma partnership. They prefer to bet on sure things as far as proven data and don't mind paying a premium to do so... I would bet that our management has turned down lesser partnership offers, because they are confident and are betting on success here...
Would it be good or bad if a big pharma comes in at 50% for $1 billion??? All of us would make a ton of money and the company would be well funded for any levels of future trials, marketing and distribution...
Does Synaptogenix have the trial data as of right now??
The low float is very important here, the idea that someone can wait until after positive trial results and then find a market where existing shareholders that have carried the risk over time would be willing to unload their shares at merely 80% above the current price, is not remotely realistic, IMHO...
I fully expect a sharp correction to market value, a massive gap up, there are no free lunches... That is not to say that maybe someone couldn't buy shares at $200 and then see them hit $500 within a short time frame, but the upside leverage will be greatly diminished...
If you want to play this one, you should already be in or get in ASAP...
I agree with your 80% number and that seems crazy to imagine, because I think you can do the math on what the stock should be currently trading for with that probability. I only used 10% because even at that level of probability, the stock is deeply undervalued. We have a risk/reward proposition that is priced way out of line right now...
I don't think anyone has posted that they are certain of positive upcoming trial results, rather, speaking for myself, I'm "certain" that this stock is deeply undervalued as of today.
If the probability of a successful trial is 10%, then this stock is deeply undervalued, as of today.
Yeah, it would be INSANE to sell SNPX short right now! $29 million in bank, low burn rate, upcoming trials, even if this trial fails, we're close to that price right now versus unlimited upside... I thought it was insane to short the stock last time but I've cashed on bad bets and sometimes a bad bet gets lucky...
I just watched Dr. Alkon's presentation yesterday and I was well prepared with what to expect based upon everyone's comments.
I continue to be completely dumbfounded by the market's lack of interest in this company. We are currently priced near cash with results coming in just 6 weeks and with a limitless price ceiling.... Racking my mind trying to reconcile this and I keep landing on this simply must sound to good to be true to prospective investors...
Results will correct this market inefficiency!
Thanks Cyosol!!!
Thanks as always Runncoach!!!
NONSENSE!!!
That is a great question!
To start, without looking it up, I believe cash is $4-5 /share. The burn rate is low, there should be additional trials going with Fragile X and MS, and there is a patent and license portfolio that obviously has positive value...
That said, a negative trial result will see a major selloff, probably initially driving the price below $2, before, I'm completely guessing, bouncing back to trade in the $2-3 range, still a solid discount to cash and suggesting a market value of $14-21 million.
We'd still have a company with over $20 million in cash and two ongoing trials so the company would not be dead. In this scenario, I could see a big pharma player coming in with something like a $50 million offer for the company which is right where the current price is... Furthermore, maybe there would be something in the post hoc review that would continue the promise of the drug, who knows...
The crazy thing is that we are not far from the floor at current pricing, so the question is, what is the probability of a successful trial???
I agree with your first sentence that most people either don't know about this company or don't expect it to succeed after failing to prove efficacy over placebo twice in a row, regardless of post hoc review...
The value of an approved AD drug is really priceless, we're using Aducanumab as a baseline as positive trial news did demonstrate a $20 Billion market gain for the two companies partnering. That said, a successful Bryostatin trial could blow away the results of Aducanumab, so what would it be worth??? I think people are just using $1 Billion as a simple illustration at this point in time, obviously SNPX would be worth a lot more than $1 Billion with a successful trial, and I'm reluctant to even try to put a number on it as if this drug is what Dr. Alkon believes it is, it is priceless and crosses over into the full CNS treatment/cure possibilities... I'm pretty sure you agree with this...
I do think your backwards solve into a justification of the current market value is flawed on many levels. Quite importantly, we are not randomly drawing into a 100-1 shot. All of the cumulative experience, data and learning resulting in the recent peer review article is quite credible and compelling to me. We are not merely talking about an interesting theory, there is statistically credible evidence of efficacy and a trial specifically designed with many learned lessons to deliver success. You know this much better than I do, but the point is, this is not a random 100-1 shot... Then after that, the half values for successive trials are cute, but come on... :)
I believe you are bullish on this company and you are obviously VERY smart, but I struggle to reconcile how you've come to believe that the current market value is appropriate for the risk/reward proposition that is SPNX...
The current $7 /share valuation makes sense if the REAL probability of a successful trial is some number close to zero. Some of us believe that the probability of success is greater than close to zero and thus that this stock is ridiculously undervalued in the current market...
A very simple calculation is that if there is a 10% chance of success and success would result in a $150 share price, then the current price should be $15. I believe that the probability of success is greater than 10% and I also believe that the company value would be greater than $150 with a successful trial...
With a very low burn rate, cash on hand is still in the $4-5 /share range, I believe?? We are trading close to cash which only "makes sense" if the "real" success probability is practically zero... Frankly, the current market cap is just stupid! And, additionally there aren't that many shares fully diluted...
I don't see an efficient market for this stock, I see a vacuum of awareness, a black hole... I wonder if people that casually look into this company, instinctively assume that it must be too good to be true and look away... Biotech is a massive sea of failed companies that all had some exciting story/hope at one point, I know if someone just mentioned this company to me and I looked, I'd probably assume there was some good reason that I wasn't seeing to explain the low valuation and I'd steer clear...
I must say that is an excellent response and I appreciate you taking the time to write it up.
That is a perfectly plausible explanation in a generic Occam's Razor sense. But, all any of us can do is speculate.
This stock has a history of relatively high volume "mysterious" supply of stock meeting the increased demand needs following an event that would logically accelerate demand and price. Historically, this trading behavior coincidentally or not, was followed by sweetheart private equity offerings (good price with warrant match).
So, yes, I feel confident that there were manipulations in the past. Frankly, it seems odd to me that someone would be holding a sizable position and would want to unload at yesterday's prices at this point in time. If I were trying to get out of such a position, I would want to let it run and try to patiently work it out, not aggressively fill demand orders... That's just me, obviously anything is possible...
Understood, what you are saying is correct, BUT, I specifically used the word "seeping" to imply the possibility of positive anecdotal feedback, of course, that could be supercharged placebo performance like last time, who knows... I'm sure this stuff is buttoned up, but I'm open to the possibility of positive anecdotal results "seeping" out...
Regardless, our guys have publicly expressed more confidence than ever before...
Completely agree!!! It's hard to hide with a stock that can go hours with no shares traded and then all of the sudden when there is a logical reason for buy side demand to drive the price up, the matching sell side shows up out of seemingly nowhere to maintain a price point...
I love that press release!! It could be seen as a little cocky, but wow, if there was any concern about negative trial feedback seeping back to our leadership, it's crystal clear that Alkon and team believe they have something!
Of course, we'll see.... But, the risk/reward pricing disparities within this sector are mind blowing...
Biogen up +50% in premarket, they started out with a $28 Billion market cap, so close to $15 Billion increase based upon their 50% ownership of the drug.