Monday, October 10, 2022 8:11:10 PM
To start, without looking it up, I believe cash is $4-5 /share. The burn rate is low, there should be additional trials going with Fragile X and MS, and there is a patent and license portfolio that obviously has positive value...
That said, a negative trial result will see a major selloff, probably initially driving the price below $2, before, I'm completely guessing, bouncing back to trade in the $2-3 range, still a solid discount to cash and suggesting a market value of $14-21 million.
We'd still have a company with over $20 million in cash and two ongoing trials so the company would not be dead. In this scenario, I could see a big pharma player coming in with something like a $50 million offer for the company which is right where the current price is... Furthermore, maybe there would be something in the post hoc review that would continue the promise of the drug, who knows...
The crazy thing is that we are not far from the floor at current pricing, so the question is, what is the probability of a successful trial???
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