Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
They ran away to Australia, and they are slow playing the process over multiple years, while they continue to feed from the teat for as long as possible... Without proper controls they can data mine for any semblance of a positive effect (maybe placebo, maybe the subject doesn't even have the disease) and call that process "precision medicine", or a "21st century" approach, lol...
With NTRP, reality is right in front of us and it won't be decided by debates/arguments on this board, it will be determined by facts and truth in just a few days...
I don't think it has ever made sense to release information like this right before Labor Day, which is a bad news cycle. Next week is possible, but I'm guessing it will be the following week and my guess is Monday September 9th...
True!
Yeah, that is a whole other dimension...
There are not that many of us shareholders in NTRP and I doubt that many of us are selling...
We are probably just one to three weeks away from knowing who has been right and who has been wrong... As for me, I'm smiling and feeling good!
62K shares shorted yesterday, 30% of the traded volume, we are currently over 1 million shares shorted with NTRP... That is a ton of future buying volume for this thinly traded stock...
You've been repeatedly conflating Alkon with Missling, the irony is that Neurotrope has been the anti-pump and dump, which is why nobody seems to know about them...
Thanks!!
Cyosol, Where do you get this information?
"24% of volume last Friday were shorts"
Short interest up to 869,579 as of 8/15!
I view this as a strong positive that the share price has held as shorts are continuing to pile on... In fact, I believe there was a lot of shorting today, we may be over 1 million shares short as of today? This is substantial on a lightly traded stock that can literally go hours without a single share being traded...
This is a lot of future buying volume!!! How frustrating it must be for them to be pounding away and not see the price continue downward?? Like a treadmill for them...
This is great stuff!! Alkon is immensely impressive!!!
I believe that Missling's objective is to keep the gravy train running as long as possible... Move to another country, introduce multi-year running trials without control protocols, mix in some hopeful possibilities, and keep that train running...
Great stuff, Whatsupp!!!
RC, my point on that question was if those requests are happening (even if they can't keep the people on the drug), then that would be a positive indicator of where the results might be going... Maybe there is some anecdotal feedback that has found its way to them??
Could there be family members of patients reaching out to NTRP to ask if their loved ones can stay on the drug?
That doesn't make any sense! They have complete command on how their drug works!
AVXL, on the other hand, is throwing fairy dust into the air...
ITT, yes, I agree with you on all points!
I've been suspecting some pre-discussion and negotiation, but, if they want to maximize shareholder value, as they are supposed to, the process should involve the steps you mention... I think it will be public that this process is taking place and should be reflected in share price expectation at some level so I'm not seeing trading in the 20s or anywhere near there...
I expect a solid partnership to be announced relatively soon after the results. I'm guessing preliminary discussions have been held, with perhaps multiple possibilities. I believe that there is a lot that will happen quickly, once the data is official and public... We'll see...
One thing that should be indisputable is that the value of the company calculation changes dramatically with confirmed positive results.
That said, there is an imputed cognitive dissonance with the current market value of the company. There are two key variables that are simply not connecting:
1) Probability of confirmatory trial success. The subset data is quite powerful and combined with the compassionate use patients, suggests a clear and real effect. The statistical analysis of the probability of success has most certainly been done by Wei and team and while I don't know what the figure is, it seems to me that it must be above 80% success expectation, or let's call it "highly probable"...
2) Value of the company with confirmed results. We have a drug that is potentially priceless, there isn't really a large number that is absurd, IMHO... The Biogen/Eisai worldwide market value reaction of +$20 billion on a reported drug effect that is substantially less than what NTRP would be confirming, provides insight into the potential, going from near absolute obscurity to a big pharma partner and worldwide attention and hope...
If ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas!
Whatsupp, agreed, generally warrants are exercised if they are about to expire, or if the holder believes that the current price might be the peak price before the expiration... The whole value of the warrant is leverage over time...
Sure, maybe there is a small number that need cash, but that would be a small percentage, IMHO...
I thought that AXSM was a good example of how the "market" can undervalue an opportunity at a point in time, and how institutional interest and share price can skyrocket with a tangible results basis, used to counter some absurd repetitive posts polluting the board...
But, assuming confirmed data with NTRP, are they really that comparable in terms of potential and upside?? Seriously, should a company that has statistically credible data suggesting the ability to reverse Alzheimer's be worth less than a single billion dollars??
Doesn't the experience with Biogen and their partner Eisai with aducanumab suggest potential in the tens of billions? There would be a period of share price appreciation before a peak, but I just can't see it starting in the $20s per share, IMHO... The shorts would get off light if that happened...
Anything is possible if those with the significant warrant positions are willing to take money off the table at that level, but there aren't many of these people, they are sophisticated investors and believers in this company, so I'm not so sure that they will "take money off the table" at that price level, we'll see...
Doc, you might be right about the price in the 20s after good news, BUT, I just can't see that as a likely scenario. I'm pretty sure that there is a massive amount of demand on the sidelines ready to jump in with the justification of confirmed data. There would have to be enough sell side support to match for demand price in the 20s and I'm thinking this supply and demand won't meet until a much higher price...
Obviously, we are talking about a scenario with confirmed results that is unprecedented with far reaching implications for not just Alzheimers but the other CNS indications as well... This would be paradigm shifting and very exiting news around the world... Our trading shares float for NTRP is minuscule relative to potential demand and thus I would expect an extraordinary gap up...
Yes! Thanks for the pick-me-up Whatsupp!
red, I interpreted Doc's post as saying that he sold covered calls on an 1/8th of his position, Sept 12.5s for $1.60. So, he would be hoping for the data release after the expiration of these calls (otherwise he could lose his shares for $12.50)...
The Septembers are going to be interesting... At the Maxim meeting, the Maxim host spoke before introducing Ryan, and said that he expected results around the beginning of September... I know you'll be rooting for the release in the final week of September and if that happens, your play will be brilliant... Good luck!
Great stuff Doc! That said, I suspect that at least a lot of it is not hedged, as the options action is clearly with October calls and the volume isn't high enough, IMHO to hedge the bulk of the short action. Buying call options is still a popular leverage play for speculators in situations like this and I suspect a lot of it is simply that, and not a hedge... But, obviously there is no way to know for sure...
I wish there was public information about the open options interest, such as how much of it is covered versus naked... I'll bet there are knuckleheads writing naked calls and I can't see a lot of covered call selling in this situation, even from those with warrants... There really aren't a lot of us NTRP shareholders and most of us are in this for the big hit, not to give it away by selling a covered call... So, what I'm saying is that I actually suspect that in addition to open short interest, there is open naked call writing, and I do think there are people foolish enough to do this...
I view the increasing short interest very positively!!! This is a thinly traded stock that has seen full days pass with less than 10K shares traded, so to be able to absorb heavy shorting, 660K shares as of 7/31, certainly more now, shows a lot of solid support and we get to look forward to those shares needing to be purchased...
There is no knowledge behind those short trades, just formula shorting based upon ridiculously high failure rates of AD trials... But, to be shorting at these low prices with a firm that is merely confirming previous statistically significant subset results and has enough cash on hand to continue as a going concern for two years, then with other potential CNS disease solutions and a valuable patent and intellectual property portfolio, is malpractice, they should have their licenses revoked when the tsunami destroys their positions...
I don't remember Ryan's exact words (from Maxim meeting) but I definitely left with the impression that there are numerous conversations that have been taking place among big pharma and large fund managers... It's all about confirming the data...
If you are enjoying saying that now, just wait until how much you'll enjoy it after the results are released!
Wow, that would be amazing!!
Xena, thanks for the responses!
blu_1, in your opinion, how likely is it that AVXL will find a big pharma partner within the next two years?
XenaLives, if NTRP has a highly successful trial result, what will that mean for AVXL?
rayovacAAA, How risky do you think an investment in AVXL is right now?
Investor 2014, in your opinion, what is a current fair market value of AVXL and NTRP?
Thanks in advance for responding!
Short interest has been rapidly expanding. As of right now, we only know the 7/15 number (468,427 shares) but the 7/31 number will be out in a few days...
If all of the short positions were covered, this stock would be over $10 easily right now! They are in a world of hurt, with a backbone of support just under $5 /share and lack of trading liquidity to cover their positions without running the price back up... They are getting hung out to dry through the data release...
Question about AVXL for everyone?
Since it's discussed frequently on this board... Do you think 2019 will finally be the year that the existing shareholders of AVXL realize that they've been scammed with an antioxidant formula placebo drug for all these years, and that data mining to find those that best benefit from the placebo is called "precision medicine" and that the lack of a placebo control comparison is called a "21st Century" approach, also, moved to another country, with the dubious trials reaching forward for several years???
It's actually quite comical when all put together, right??
Frustrating day for shorts, huh??
With a positive trial result, I think that difference is immaterial...
I agree and it seems to me that Ryan and Alkon should be heavily involved in the drafting of the press release...