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The current price is a much better deal than the sweet heart insider's deal that got instantly gobbled up just a few weeks ago... How often can you buy a company for 50% of cash, a portfolio of patents and intellectual property, and a miniscule burn rate???
I'm guessing that Ryan and Alkon will meet with the FDA to discuss the trial results, get feedback, then structure a new trial with a partner. The deal with the partner should set a new elevated value on the company...
10-K out this evening.
http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20200313/AUBZB22C8W22K2Z2222I2CZZGQMDZ2Z2XL22/
I did a quick scan and didn't see anything of note that was not already known... I'll read more thoroughly this weekend...
We're trading at 50% of cash, and I would expect something is in the works, just have to be patient...
I thought I had bought close to the bottom, but it seems I'm always proven wrong on that... Oh well, just need to be patient...
The price didn't instantly drop in line with the market at opening, there was support and then it has given away some... I think it is a great buying opportunity and I've gone in for more shares this afternoon. I was keeping some powder dry in case this thing was going to drop further than my last purchase (under $1.15) but I'm reasonably comfortable that we've seen the bottom (post news a month ago) and I think this is poised to run above $1.40 in short order, IMHO...
Agreed! And, in particular, I've become so impressed with Alkon! I'm happy to bet on him!!
Great find!!
In the Details tab, a Laurie M Ryan is listed as involved, hmmm....
Predictions:
1) NTRP will get to $1.65 /share (41% above current price) within 6-8 weeks.
2) NTRP will get to $2.00 /share (71% above current price) within 3 months.
We'll see!! :)
Yeah, I think the key thing to remember is that fully diluted we are still under 50 million shares and this is still low relative to others in this space and relative to the massive upside potential. Considering the scare of the collapse recently (a lot of people thought the company was done), having a solid balance sheet is a nice downside protection as we move forward, and I believe that we will still do very well, particularly from this current $1.25 price point...
AVXL IS A SCAM!!!! BEWARE!!!
NTRP is a vastly superior opportunity than AVXL!
NTRP has evidence of actually doing something positive with Alzheimer's patients...
AVXL is just a lot of smoke and mirrors with a LONG bleed out while nothing actually ever happens...
Flat out undervalued right now!
I've seen this exact scenario play out many times with similar public companies doing similar new equity raises. For whatever reason, there is an initial reaction of the price falling below the new deal price ($1.65/ share in our case; also happened on previous equity raise at $4.47? when stock fell into the $3.50ish range in short term).
In a post the other day, I predicted this stock would fall into the $1.20s, only on the basis of similar observed patterns. It's a great price!!! Consider that the $1.65/share deal is a sweet heart deal that didn't really need to be sold, it was buttoned up instantly. So, that is the real baseline now, and interestingly, this equity deal raises the tangible book value from before the deal.
The price will probably linger around where it is right now for a short period of time, and then begin a gradual ascent to the $1.65 range. From there, it might move gradually upward and over $2...
Then, at some point, we should get some favorable news of a partnership deal and the stock will pass $5, IMHO...
While the dilution sucks, we still have less that 50 million shares all in, and that still isn't much relative to the potential... It's a long game, but we have an opportunity to draft behind this current equity placement at a price below what they (a sophisticated group) are paying... I recommend taking advantage of it!
I want to buy more and almost pulled the trigger at $1.24 this morning, hopefully it comes back down, I'll patiently wait...
NTRP is still a vastly superior opportunity than AVXL!
NTRP has evidence of actually doing something positive with Alzheimer's patients...
AVXL is just a lot of smoke and mirrors with a LONG bleed out while nothing actually ever happens...
I was fortunate to have sold the 20,000 shares that I picked up in the fall for .725 this morning for 3.59. I still have the 45,000 shares that I had when the trial results hit...
My guess on the future is that near term, the price might slip back a little, to say the $1.20s, then stabilize around $1.40s-$1.60s for some period of time until a deal is announced. I think we see $5+ a share this year, they just took a lot of our top off...
Indeed! Just strap in...
It does seem like something positive is brewing...
It seems that the partial correction is settling in... Still undervalued, at least below tangible cash and then whatever value the intellectual assets carry...
Go Baby Go!!!!
Hopefully we get rolling next week!
That would be nice! I'm thinking we'll see a positive week next week...
Indeed! This stock is definitely poised for some form of a run, IMHO... At least "correct" to a more appropriate valuation...
Agree completely!!! Also, current price is still well below tangible book value (cash) and with management having publicly stated that they are reviewing options to maximize shareholder value, the stock is at least a great value play at current price, and still holds some level of significant upside...
Hopefully more if recent trial data can be made sense of...
We should get at least $3-5/share in 2020...
Look for rise to continue into 2020...
This is just a correction.
The placebo result is SO HIGHLY UNUSUAL!!
The first question in my mind has been, were Bryostatin and the placebo mixed up within a segment of the population???
If this happened, then the data should reveal it... Imagine if half the group showed consistent Bryostatin at +3 to +6 (+4.5 avg) versus a placebo at 0 to -2 (-1 avg) and the other half with inverse results, then clearly, WTF??
There is a massive historical data base of placebo results, and while there can be a minor short term positive effect, I'm not aware of results like this trial suggested...
Has a placebo ever showed results not merely slowing down the rate of decline but reversing Alzheimers in a decent sized trial??? Something is not right with that, IMHO...
Didn't memantine get approved by merely slowing the rate of decline down more than the placebo?
The synthetic play is an interesting one...
The fact is that the previous data ("look at the data") was powerful and suggested a high probability of confirmatory success. I am absolutely not throwing the towel in on Bryostatin as I simply don't believe that the previous results were nothing more than remarkable low probability, vastly exceeding the odds random success...
I truly believe that this current data will provide clues as to what went wrong. I'll start with an obvious but seemingly low probability (because of trial controls) possibility in that for a segment of the trial, the placebo and Bryostatin were mixed up (would lead to unusual Placebo success against poor Bryostatin results and potentially a top line averaging results like we saw)? The possibility of the "burned out receptor" from years of memantine use is worth looking into? Another possibility is how was the Bryostatin transported to the various clinics and did a loss of refrigeration or improper handling lead to a vastly reduced efficacy (drugs do lose efficacy over time and poor handling could accelerate this)?
Lots of questions?? NTRP has plenty of cash and a low burn rate with a lot of scientific eyes on them looking at this and hoping for an explanation reconciling the result with the belief in the potential...
In contrast to AVXL, which has red flags and fraud signals all over the place, NTRP has given every indication of an honest attempt at solving this seemingly impossible riddle and there is enough cash and possible directional options that there is no reason to think that this thing is done, IMHO...
I certainly understand this. What is shocking to me is the high volume of short sales continuing on this stock at under $1/share... That is beyond crazy!
This thing will come back up, and while I'm suffering a big wound, I'm probably going to have to buy more of this stock at this price...
I believe that there is a good chance that a review of the data will review what went wrong, this company is definitely not dead! Huge set back for sure! But, take the punches and keep moving forward...
We all hated the "sweetheart" deal capital raise and dilution late last year but in retrospect, and we talked about it as "de-risking" (real but not reflected in current price) the downside, thank God, now, huh...
I know there have to be rigorous controls in place, but is there a chance that the real drug and placebo got mixed up in part of the trial??
Separately, the sell off is an absurd overreaction to the deeply disappointing news. As I posted before the trial results, IMHO, the company should be worth $50-100 million based upon cash, patents and licenses... The bad outcome is a big setback but it just means they have to figure things out. The fact remains that Bryostatin has done some remarkable things for many people and still has potential across multiple CNS diseases... To a big pharma company, $50-100 million is a rounding error and they can commit the resources to properly advancing the drug forward...
The crazy thing about the current, short sale pounded, share price, is that I sincerely believe that it is below what the company could be sold for if the trial results show no effect (low probability).
It remains a fact that CS patients and 15/16 non-memantine patients showed a very real and unprecedented positive effect. Additional research such as Johns Hopkins for MS is very real. The cash, patent portfolio, licenses, and intellectual property HAS TO BE WORTH $65 million ($5/share) to a big pharma company that should be happy to take it on the cheap ($65 million is a rounding error for them) and work with what is there, all IMHO...
I think we have a relatively small number of NTRP shareholders and that they are more sophisticated than mass society stock owners, as many are accredited investors. So, I don't think our long shareholders can be so easily manipulated into panic sales...
Of course that is possible. But, there really are a limited number of actual and meaningful shareholders of NTRP and I really don't believe that there is a lot of selling at this price point, immediately before the results release among this group. Maybe a little bit, but not significant is my strongly felt opinion on this...
IMHO, this shorting is more formulaic than any real fundamental analysis pertaining specifically to NTRP, or any real insider early insight leaking of the results. This "bet" (shorting before ALZ trial results) has been a "lock" for a long time and over many companies (filled with great stories and optimism among shareholders), and that can lead to short cuts and sloppiness... There are plenty of examples of dogmatic hubris before the fall with hedge funds...
I suspect there is a decent amount of Naked Shorting going on in addition to traditional shorting. Time will tell, but I suspect a very highly leveraged and significant short position with our relatively limited share float... Traditional Shorting alone is well over a million shares right now...
This is a perfect description of the future of Anavex (AVXL).
Guessing: PR end of day this Friday, announcing results pre-market following Monday and a conference call time.
Given how significant these results could potentially be, how cool would it be if there was something like a 60 minutes piece on Sunday evening (following opening day NFL)... One can dream. :)
LOL! AVXL is fairy dust, dependent upon PR promotion and spin, driven through social media, to stay afloat. This works both for AVXL and against perceived competitors...
Conversely, NTRP is real, the trial is real, and results will be known in a few days, one way or the other. There is no amount of social media and message board noise that will have any impact on the truth and reality that will be known to the world very soon...
There are not a lot of us NTRP shareholders, but we are all feeling very good right now...
Agreed, if the options and warrants are not about to expire, then I don't expect many to be exercised... Their value is leverage over time... Other than being hard up for cash (unlikely for vast majority), the only reason to exercise them and sell them immediately would be if the person believed that the price had hit a peak and wouldn't be expected to go higher before the expiration date... Maybe some "take some off the table" action, but I can't imagine anyone doing that at a double digit stock price if the news is positive as expected...
This could be a brutal short squeeze and the schadenfreude will be delightful!!
Actually, it's a great sign! It's absorbing the desperate doubling down of the shorts and holding firm...