Thanks. Annoyingly he seems to have gotten the AGO accounting wrong. As shown in the Presentation to Surplus Noteholders, Syncora really will pay about $360mm to AGO, coming from $69.252mm in bonds and $294.935mm of cash. The transaction does remove the accounting liability for unearned premium revenue as he says ($238.803mm on the 9/30 GAAP balance sheet), BUT the adjusted book calculation for 9/30 already added most of it back, as "Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed" of $222.5mm. (Not to criticize the transaction too much, it was probably the best option: stopped a lot of the interest burn on the surplus notes, also as we see now released $42mm from the mandatory contingency reserve.) Incidentally Greenpoint did get recognized on the 12/31 stat balance sheet, as salvage rather than cash (it's the reason unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses became so negative).
True adjusted book after Greenpoint plus AGO should still be around $4.
The important things right now are American Roads and Macquarie, as management said: "After completion of American Roads Sale,
there are no other large strategic projects. We would like the ability to retire surplus notes and/or Twin
Reefs at a discount as part of future distributions." Interesting they're stating my view I think for the first time, which is that the prefs should be worth less than liquidation preference--how much I'm not sure. The surplus noteholders on the other hand I'd have thought would have enough leverage to get taken out at par.