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I’m out of RCEL as of mid December except for some January calls that will expire worthless. I needed to harvest tax losses to offset gains in SQ, that rewarded me handsomely. I’m trying to decide whether to get reenter a position after 30 days, oR add to my position in IMMR, which I think will move up nicely. I still think Avita will thrive at some point but just not sure if now is the time or if a reinvestment will be dead money.
next few months wont be great imo
Thanks for the advice. I bought the following day at 19.33. You’re always so right about this stock
I’m out of RCEL as of mid December except for some January calls that will expire worthless. I needed to harvest tax losses to offset gains in SQ, that rewarded me handsomely. I’m trying to decide whether to get reenter a position after 30 days, oR add to my position in IMMR, which I think will move up nicely. I still think Avita will thrive at some point but just not sure if now is the time or if a reinvestment will be dead money.
Do some DD on this stock. After many years of mismanagement the reconstituted board and manage the team seem set to finally increase shareholder value. After many years of holding, I bailed out in 2018. I’m back in with a larger position than originally. RAGING CAPITAL and VIEX are now at the helm and this will pay holders outsized returns
Do some DD on this stock. After many years of mismanagement the reconstituted board and manage the team seem set to finally increase shareholder value. After many years of holding, I bailed out in 2018. I’m back in with a larger position than originally. RAGING CAPITAL and VIEX are now at the helm and this will pay holders outsized returns
Mike
Let’s suppose that you are 100% correct, as you said, on all your points, although I believe many of them are arguable, which is an entirely different matter.
Please tell me what you think will happen when articles are written under the following scenarios:
1. The quarterly report shows significant increase in sales and further penetration in burn centers
2, Promising data is released regarding Vitiligo trial enrollment
3. Positive results from the pediatric scalds trials
4. Approval in Japan for broad use
5. Annual report again showing gains in sales And penetration
6. Obtaining a C code from CMS for outpatient burns
7. Presentation of preliminary results of the Vitiligo study at one conference or another
Will the stock continue to dive over time when these events occur and the company continues to penetrate the skin and burn markets?
Will management act so ineptly that sales momentum will come to a grinding halt?
Will any of the achievements move the needle or am I doomed with endless tax write offs for the entirety of my existence?
I anxiously await your comments and advice
I agree. Early stage biotechs are not valued by bottom line but more on product and pipeline. If the burn rate stays high and the have to dilute that could be a problem in the future, but even that won’t be a big problem if it’s to fund something very promising.
The good news is RCEL is getting noticed and as you mentioned volume has picked up dramatically. Quarterly sales comparisons should be favorable. I think one piece of positive news and it will pop. When that is, I haven’t a clue but I’m confident it will happen
Could someone please explain to me the process by which posts on this board are reviewed and allowed or deleted.
I think it’s called running the company, not running the share price. It is my understanding, and correct me if I’m mistaken, that BARDA funded the majority of the US trials. Their interest was burns and that is what they paid for. There is no way The company could possibly self fund FDA trials for vitiligo and the previous trials would only be considered anecdotal.
I have to admit I was “WAY” wrong in my analysis of Avita’s prospects immediately after the reverse split. One thing that I did not consider was the impact of the redomicile on the Aussie shares. Since it is now a US stock and no longer part of the ASX 200, the has had to be forced selling by any tracking funds involved with that index. I wonder if that might be a factor in the recent steep decline or whether I being delusional and not seeing something far more obvious. Thoughts?
Agree that we are pawns. I think the institutions are going to own 80% of this within a year. They’ll have to take some pawns with them, so I’m in for the ride. Please take this cigarette from my left hand.
Thank you for being the voice of reason today. Watching tick by tick pricing and wondering where the price will be next week, is very distracting.
One thing to consider in the near to mid-term would be a licensing agreement and collaboration with a major Pharma. Avita is much too small to undertake that huge a market on its own. An agreement would infuse the company with cash and avoid shareholder dilution, while they pursue significant , but certainly smaller, opportunities.
I believe the company will be acquired a some point, but I don’t think it’s around the corner. The are applications for this technology that haven’t even been thought of yet, but they are 5 to 10 years out, regardless of who owns the company. I see a lot of biotechs with much higher valuations, with not nearly the potential of Avita. Now that RCEL in no longer a penny stock in a foreign country, that trade US ADR’s, and have a massive float, it can settle into trading in the largest market in the world. I don’t think it will be long before people realize that at current valuation Avita is undervalued at current prices
I Ignore the current chaos and don’t worry about whether or not it’s up today. In the long run the company’s value will be recognized.
I suspect some funds are beginning to buy in the price will meet all minimums by the settlement day. I expect a big upside move in the month of July, brought on by new analyst coverage and company announcements. Short sellers and pretty smart people and I don’t think they are going to find reason to pounce on this.
JMHO
I was able to pick up 5000 shares today at $5.80. This will become 1000 shares at $29 on Monday. I don’t think RCEL will stay under $30 very long after the new shares are issued. I think too much is being made of the reverse split and once it starts trading with a higher price and smaller float the stock will surge higher. I look for an announcement and new analyst coverage in the next couple of weeks.
Redomicile and reverse split
I’m nobody, and I don’t pretend to be any smarter or more insightful than anyone‘ anywhere. That being said, my (humble) opinion of what is likely to happen upon the completion of the process is contrary to most on this message board.
It has been just about 2 months since the announcement and the trend has been down. Also, it had very little participation in the past month’s rally. Volume has been trending downward since April, with 5 of the last 20 trading days showing volume below 200,000. This indicates, to me, a lack of sellers, and even fewer buyers.
RCEL is a retail penny stock with virtually no institutional ownership. By restructuring its capital , the new entity will be the same company but a very different stock. With a new listing on NASDAQ it becomes much more than a non-domestic biotech with a bloated share count. It will meet all criteria for investment by the vast majority of Biotech ETFs and biotech and health care mutual funds. A look into any of these vehicles components and you find hundreds of companies of varying market caps and at different stages of development. I believe there will be a demand for the new shares that do not exist with the present structure.
I further believe that, in a very short time Avita will garner analyst coverage and based on their story and potential , I believe, ratings will be favorable. I also think the higher share price gives the company a higher profile, which will make it easier for a bid pharma to say yes to a collaboration in the cosmetic area. If this were to come about, the value of the company’s IP would increase dramatically.
With those thoughts in mind, I have initiated a position in RCEL JAN21 calls. I feel confident that prior to expiration the share price in move up enough to cover the spread, premium and commissions.
My thoughts only, but a scenario that could be a possibility.
In My Humble Opinion
The recent announcement has certainly stirred up a hornet’s nest among the group on this board. So, with Epi-pen in hand, I’d like to offer my thoughts and opinions.
There will be a reverse split 1:100 ASX or 1:5 ADR, the financial effect on current shareholders on the day the transaction is finalized is zero. Instead of having 5 one ounce pieces of pie , you now have 1 five ounce piece. What will matter is what happens from there. Some would lead you to believe that management will act irresponsibly and screw shareholders in unimaginable positions. Others are worried about having fewer shares and their perception of a reverse split. The vast majority of R/s’s end up unfavorably for existing shareholders but that in not always the case. Most are done to avoid delisting for a company that is in financial difficulty
As that does not appear to be the case with Avita, then why?
Right Sizing
A decrease in outstanding shares from 2B to 20M puts it in the realm of biotechs of similar size and valuation.
It will be much easier to measure performance and progress. Suppose over time the company continues to execute and make a $2 million bottom line profit. Profitability is measured by earnings per share, most commonly. With a 2B float that translates to .001 or 1/10 of a cent per share. Under the new structure in equates to 0.10/share. This gives a much clearer picture of a biotech going from a losing company to a profitable one.
Currently, the company’s 2B float probably is more a detriment in attracting new investors, be they individuals or institutions.
Everyone has to make their own decisions based on the facts as they see them. There was angst about the capital raise which turned out to be well timed. There are varying management conspiracy theories but, thus far, I’ve found the leaders to be responsible.
Off topic: Why are so many posts being deleted. I hope not because they are negative about Avita. Let the blowhards blow.
If he’s never out of RCEL for more than 48 hours, and doesn’t hit the highs and lows that means his trades account for more than 100% of the volume on the days he trades, both in and out. Makes sense to me. I’ve made $3,227,863.24 trading my 1000 share position in the last 6 months.
I disagree. The report was nothing but positive. Happy trails. I’ll send up a postcard from the moon.
I don’t know how the report could have been better. I expect this will be up tonight and tomorrow. Not disappointed at all. Don’t just watch sales.
Sorry folks. Thought this was new. Actually a year old.
I’ve seen my fair share of dumps. I can say, that they normally occur on heavy volume, unlike corrections which
Tend to happen on near normal volume. My theory, and only my own opinion, with no hard numbers to back it up, is as follows.
2019 generated huge profits for those who invested early. It seems logical to me that 2020, being a new tax year, would invite many to take some profits prior to earnings.
As to insiders selling, I have seen no filings to that effect.
I may be way wrong, but I’m very confident that the next financial update will be positive and show that the company is progressing on all fronts. I think the product is in more burn centers and and more kits are being used in their existing base. $5.25, $5.80, $8.27. Those are the closing prices on the dates of the 3 previous reports. I’ll be patient and monitor the company’s progress because it takes time to get to the moon.
You can call it a dump. I called it a buying opportunity.
I bought 3 times today at an average price of $9.17.
Real time. It might go up, but it might go down.
On 1/14 you called the dump
On 1/13 you were bullish
I’ll make a prediction. It might go
up or it might go down. I’m a genius
I sold all my shares last week at $10.54 and bought back today at $9.41
Wow, see how easy it is to tell the world how smart I am after the fact.
I’ll tell you when I sell these shares a few days after it hits a new high
And I’ll be sure to inform you of my genius a few days after it corrects to a
Lower price. Just don’t ask me about my buys and sells in real time.
I’m glad everyone is making money in their own way. I’ll be even happier if a lot more people make a lot more money in the future
No retracement. We’re going to the moon.
That must be some really good dank, Dank
Today seemed to be the reverse of the trading day we had on New Year’s Eve
Then we spiked up and dropped to close within pennies of the ASX adjusted price. Today we
dropped early and recovered late to again closed near to the ASX close.
If this was the “dump” it lasted less than 6 hours.
Perhaps our resident “MasterTrader” can give us insight as to what signifies a “dump”
as to depth and duration and the typical volume to expect.
The price ran all the way up to resistance
from the tops in October and November and
was thwarted. Once it didn’t penetrate the
sellers came in en masse toward the end of the day
Cramer alerted a lot of traders to RCEL who just play
their own particular method to make a buck and
know or care little about what Avita. It adds volatility
but it also adds liquidity, which is positive. I’m hoping
That some are building short positions, because at some
point they’ll cover at higher prices.
I expect it won’t be very long before we retest
resistance again, probably due to some piece of
news. Today’s ride was a good one but if you look,
the price closed within pennies of the ASX close
last night.
This has to be the dump
We were at the top on the wave
last week. Sell Sell Sell and buy
back higher
Jugs
He’s been recommending people sell before
The big dump happens for some time now.
Look at his past posts. He’s a very accurate
reverse barometer
Just yesterday I went to my CPA
for stock market advice. When I
Was done, I brought my tax documents
to my broker at Merrill Lynch
I think the best deal for shareholders would
be to license Recell to a large pharma company
With deep pockets for cosmetic use. Avita would
Keep control of the pipeline and get milestone payments and
A % of sales after approval. Perry mentioned that
He couldn’t get into it, which means something is
Happening in that area
I agree. So sorry I missed the prior
opportunity to dump and stupidly bought
at 8.11 then 7.70 and again at 7.39.
Now, 6 weeks later, I understand there’s
another opportunity to dump at the top of
the wave. So I bought more yesterday at
8.89. Pass the Kool Aid please.
Cramer
I must say it’s been an exciting week since
the Mad Money appearance. The shorts really
took over. Also, I think a lot of people sitting on
Some hefty profits go spooked and sold all
or some of their positions. Pre market and after hours
trading has waned and hopefully we will get back to
normal soon. In the mean time, nothing has changed
except the stock price. The story is no less compelling
and the company continues to make progress on
multiple fronts
“ I may be going to hell in a bucket
But a least I’m enjoying the ride”
I meant no harm and agree that this
Is not the place to express our
political beliefs.
Hezekia
“ A fool says what he knows, a wise man knows
what he says”
Thank you for being a wise man
Regarding Cramer. Someone emails CNBC and is told
They don’t release guest lineups in advance. The e mail exchange
you posted intimates that certain things shouldn’t
be committed to writing. It’s just possible that you
we’re told something on conversation that wasn’t yet ready
for public consumption.
Cramer is like a shot of espresso. Quick jolt but not
really sustainable. It may present a great trading
opportunity for those so inclined. As to Avita name
recognition among investors, that will comes as
things unfold. Cramer may be a catalyst, but he really
isn’t part of the end product.
Avita has a product that completely
satisfies the Value Proposition on multiple
levels. It’s still in it’s infancy.
PS. I love the smell of fairy dust in the morning
Thank you for the insightful and
well thought out reply.
According to the 2018 annual report
he had 50 million RSU’s. If the came due
this year and he exercised, he would
have a tax liability of 47%. Do the math.
Your comments have also prompted me
to read the bio’s of the entire board.
Their credentials seem to me to be
Impeccable. What moves could be
Made to improve things. You can’t
Fire a CEO because he decided to
cash in. Looking at his bio, he
certainly left a very responsible job and,no doubt,
well paying job to move to Avita.