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Remdisivir is already in use as a treatment. There was an article in the NY Post this morning how the drug put a guy with a 103 fever from COVID into remission within 24 hours.
The price is being tightly controlled. Speculation: there is a buyout deal that requires the price to be kept from running.
If one were to go back over the past 4 years and analyze the progression of the optimistic prognostications of Bavi's potential on this board, one would arrive at the inescapable conclusion that the advertised vaunted expectations have required a steady readjustment downward. From the 2012 "blockbuster adjuvent" Phase II trial fiasco (and subsequent "Opdivo: Son of Fargo!" futility drama) to yesterday's confirmed "bury any Sunrise BLA" to the present "biomarker search for applicable subsets," exosomes, etc: the past four years (I'm being very charitable here) have been one giant clusterflock.
Posters here for the past month leading to the ASM have repeatedly and unequivocally stated that there would be no R/S only to have to commence the mantra "Well, we have nearly six months with the NASDAQ extension to get the price share up." No more unequivocal pronouncements.
Ladies and gentlemen: this is a publicly traded company. IF there was a scintilla of evidence that Peregrine had the goods in Bavituximab, it would not matter if St. Peregrine himself was trying to hold down the stock price for whatever heavenly cause, the market would sniff this out and we'd be exponentially higher than we are now in terms of share price. That's the way the market works. Nothing that was said yesterday offers a remote hope that PPHM has anything on the near or distant horizon that would offer a glimmer of the so-called "astronomical value" we first heard from CEO King and which has been repeated ad nauseam on this Board.
Please step back and take a long hard look at all of this. There are newcomers here, God bless them, who sound just as I thought 4, 8, 12, and 17 years ago. I caution them about lecturing those of us who have lived through this nightmare for 17 years and accusing us of being just naysayers or trolls because we do not share your positive attitude regarding this company. I (and probably others who have left over the years) didn't start that way.
I have nothing but respect for the honest posters -- both the optimists and the pessimists. Some of them, especially the science guys, have written selfless, time consuming posts by the gross. I cannot express my thanks sufficiently. For the dishonest trolls, I just shrug my aging shoulders; like the poor, they will always be with us.
At this point, I've had to realize that at my age, my six figure losses will not be made up by continuing my investment in this company. I will hang on a bit longer with the diminishing hope of a partnership or buyout before the R/S. And I will keep an eye out for Peregrine long after I've sold; my pending sale feels like divorcing a former love after 17 years of ups and downs. I sincerely hope that some of you here get to see those astronomical phenomena that many of us have looked for in vain; but at my age and given my health, it will not be me.
I would ask someone who is in the know if, in your charity, you would inform the Board how much warning a company is required to give its shareholders (if any) before it executes a R/S. TIA.
God bless you all. If I have offended anyone, I apologize. I regret being unable to offer anywhere near what I have received from those who have contributed over the years. I have received far more than I had the ability to return. This has been a great community of support, right or wrong! I will miss it.
P.S. I wrote this lengthy tome because I needed to have closure on a dream that has contributed, often, to a sense of hope at times when I needed it most. Hope: never underestimate the value of that commodity.
I posted a message this afternoon expressing concern that we haven't heard from masshysteria. . . . and it gets scrubbed? Too funny.
chey: selling pressure for this stock has been reduced; but buying pressure is nil.
CP, no one articulates the optimist point of view regarding this better company than you (with the possible exceptions of masshysteria, cjgaddy, entdoc, and one other whose moniker escapes me at the moment). But when you begin speaking about a R/S in such indifferent tones, it really flips a switch on me.
In the 16 years I've owned this company, I've seen 55,000 shares, the purchase price somewhere around $150,000 (lot of money for me) be reduced (if this 1:7 R/S takes place) to a little north of 10,000 shares worth at today's prices about $4000 on a good day. Get the picture?
NOW I have to make a choice to buy more (if I want to make ANY money should the latest narrative of rosy scenarios come to pass) under the same management that has been totally contemptuous of the retail investor since I've owned this company.
So, if I want ANY chance of even breaking even at this point, I am required to buy now another nearly 100,000 shares of this company if I want to retain my same 15,000 share position post split. Of course, I would do this with the thieves who continue to naked short this at will still in control. Yeah, I know, when the news breaks about Bavi that will move the earth under my feet, I'll be VERY happy. Of course, given Fargo and Sunrise, I've heard this lullaby before. The question I need to ask myself is: fool me once. . . .fool me twice.....but is it prudent to stick my financial chin out again?
If this company has an ounce of integrity, they will file for the 6 month extension (and if they have the goods as you and others think they do, they will get the extension), lay their revolutionary Bavi biologic card on the table, and let the share price take care of itself.
IF they R/S when they know they have the goods, it is for one reason and one reason only: to dilute retail and turn over the massive amount of shelf shares to BP.
I just want to explain, again, why some of us are not dancing a jig at the moment.
Mr. Jonson, please stop with denigration by utilizing the "conspiracy" meme. One doesn't need to be a "conspiricist" to understand and believe that Wall Street is very much a rigged game. So, it isn't a matter of what works for me; it's a matter that it works.
I disagree, Robert C. Cheynew has documented the insane percentage of naked shorts on a daily basis for some time. Why would the shorts bother with a stock under 40 cents -- unless it was to suppress share price for a reason? I believe that reason is to justify a R/S. Probably not a popular opinion, but I have no reason to be anything but suspicious when it comes to management and their willingness to screw over the retail investor. No need to repeat the reasons for that suspicion. They are well documented.
Well said, cheynew. I agree wholeheartedly. I was concerned about an R/S even before the awful Sunrise news in February -- specifically as a way of cleaning out the retail investor (which stood and stands as the predominant type of shareholder in PPHM).
They knew all of this supposed good news (I await the actual content of the revelations before committing my heart again) BEFORE they asked for the R/S in the proxy. Why would they do that if they did not plan on executing it?
eb...FWIW: reiterating Dr. Thorpe's statements "of mice and men" is an excellent reminder for some of us and excellent new information for others. Thank you.
CP, I don't have the mental energy at this point to spend an hour or so contradicting your rosy scenario for PPHM (Exosomes, Bavi partnerships, etc.) If that was the case, why do we even need an RS?
But PLEASE stop reiterating that the RS is a neutral. The history of this company proves you wrong.
Oh, and by the way, aren't you the least bit curious that we're sitting here in the 7th month after the Sunrise cessation still wondering about what Garnick has found (or NOT found) in his post-futility analysis??!! Asking for an RS before a syllable is uttered regarding this issue?
Why would you criticize the posters here that refer to this management as incompetent at best and horrendously incompetent at worst?
...but we all know that Big Pharma will take extreme measures and that is one very good reason for the letters to help the BOD protect shareholders interest...
biopharm: we have been and remain on different sides of the fence when it comes to optimism and realism regarding PPHM. However, this is the first post of yours toward which I have ever wanted to react viscerally: WHEN has this BOD EVER indicated an inclination to protect shareholder interest????!!!!
Let's give some credit where it is due.
entdoc, with all due respect: I'll give it some credit when I can glimpse on the horizon some return on my nearly 17 years of investment in this company and it's loathsome management.
TampaTradr: if I were a betting man, I'd say that the RS is intended to serve as the final flush of the retail investor in this company. If there is anything to the Bavi story at all (which I sincerely doubt), the shelf shares will be used to deliver to the future majority holder(s) of PPHM. If Bavi is the dud which the realists (NOT refering to the poster with that moniker) here suspect, the shelf shares will be used to subsidize the expansion costs of AVID. JMHO
chey, as I write, there are less than 20 posts from yesterday till today (we used to do more than that in an hour on a good day). I think this mirrors the sparse trading activity (or vise versa). We may well be witnessing the new normal as we transition from Bavi to AVID as the true face of PPHM.
James GMS, FWIW:
Some of us here who are not in the camp of the optimists view the science positively; what we do have every reason to doubt thus far is whether or not Bavi is the biologic which will successively execute the mechanisms which will bring the science to fruition.
If Wolchok validates the science without specifically mentioning Bavi, I expect nothing to more slippage. If he validates the science and specifically articulates the efficacy of Bavi, we'll be over our NASDAQ requirement worries. However, until this BOD and management is replaced, I think they will severely limit our upside. Wall Street apparently neither likes nor trusts them.
What is stopping purported "big money" buying shares with or without presence of "retail"? Your rationalization makes no sense, IMO.
No? According to available statistics, insiders and institutions own about 22% of the company. Who do you think owns the majority of the balance?
You can throw out wild accusations on a message board but if you truly believed what you are saying you should hire an attorney and start a class action suit.
Two reasons:
(1) Not everyone possesses the financial resources that would permit them to hire attorneys for a lawsuit.
(2) In the end, what is there to be gained from a company worth so little? More money would be spent on the lawsuit than what anyone would get as remuneration.
chey.....the outstanding short shares may not tell the story. The shorts could be active all day manipulating the share price; but it doesn't mean they need to hold their short shares long term. In other words, there is limited downside on a 36 cent company. Why would they short for any other reason than to daily manipulate?
If this is a failed company, why bother manipulating the sp? Why?
Hope, it isn't a failed company...yet. The shorts have always controlled this company at their leisure. Given the present state of things, I would offer several reasons why the price has been manipulated to remain in the 36 cent range:
(1) To force the RS; they can make more money shorting a $2+ stock than a .36 stock; and, at the same time,
(2) drive this company into the ground once and for all. The entity(ies) who have controlled the share price for decades have PPHM on the ropes; they may well be attempting the coup de grace. Why would they do this? Either because someone wants the patents and AVID or, due to the perversity of some of these market fiends, for the sheer enjoyment of it all (in other words, "because they can").
(3) Outside possibility: they have financing lined up for developing BAVI for some heretofore discovered and unannounced specific utility. They will then take the company private (at these fire sale prices) until a future date when they will reissue shares at prices that will limit the participation of low life retail investors (which management considers probably most of the posters on this Board).
Besides obtaining NASDAQ compliance (thus signaling they have no catalyst to move the stock price above a lousy $!), can anyone offer a sensible, positive reason why they would ask for a RS? I know some will say to give them more time by offering NASDAQ a plan to get the stock price above $1 in order to gain time for the finalization of some kind of super news. Given this company's track record, that strains credibility.
Sunrise failed, it stinks...
NO! Didn't you hear? BAVI met management's expectations! The future is brighter than ever (though THEY didn't say that; the optimists on this board have).
This RS is a death blow to the optimists. Either:
(1) The RS is telling us that we got 'nothin on the horizon in terms of BAVI'S future (and after 6 months, that 'ol master mind Garnick knows that we don't; and if he hasn't completed examining the data it's because he doesn't want to see the final statistics). OR
(2) Management is squeezing retail out (who have financed their pitiful butts for the past 25 years) to bring in the big money boys.
And as far as the "RS is a neutral maneuver" mantra purveyors, I don't want to hear it; just read the common history of many of us in post #270317.
They know they already have the votes for a RS. Otherwise they wouldn't have called for a vote.
This may kill it for me. I wanted to stick it out to the end, but I cannot see the point. I had 40K shares when they did the last 1:5 split. I built that up to my present 15K shares. SO: essentially 47K shares will, with this 1:7 split, be reduced to a little more than 2K shares worth at present prices less than $4500. Do I stick around and watch that shorted to under $1? Is it worth $3000 to find out? At this point, I'm just so damn discouraged and loathe this management so much, I doubt I'm willing to risk any further aggravation. I'll sleep on it.
But, if they had a catalyst to get the share price over $1 for NASDAQ listing compliance, they wouldn't need an RS. In other words, this is pretty much telling us that we got 'nothin except for AVID.
A reverse split offers a greater incentive to short the stock. History of this security is that shorts operate at will. Without news, we'll be sitting ducks.
chey: it appears to be a web site for people looking for employment. FWIW: This is the most recent poster (March 16, 2016):
I worked at Peregrine Pharmaceuticals full-time (More than 3 years)
Pros
Very elegant conference room with glass blocks and hardwood walls. Beautiful conference table. The CEO rarely leaves his office do you don't need to worry about him popping in in you.
Cons
CEO and CEO only have industry experience from this company, so they remain tragically and sometimes embarrassingly inexperienced.
CFO is essentially an accountant with an inexplicably large staff. He often creates knee-jerk rules, many of which are laughably naïve.
CEO is too intimidated by his senior staff to make independent decisions. For a company that is over 30 years old very few senior management have pharmaceutical company experience. The company has never produced a profit. Ever. Think about it.
None of their clinical stage drugs have any chance whatsoever of becoming approved products. That was shown recently when bavituximab recently (and mercifully) failed a pivotal trial.
Show More
Advice to Management:
You do not have the leadership capabilities to develop a drug even if it did work. Give up on drug development and focus on growing the manufacturing subsidiary. You should not be in the therapeutic business.
Goodbye to an unfailingly pleasant gentleman. RIP.
Hopefilled: nor am I selling -- but to say I'm disgusted is the understatement of the decade.
Hopefilled: Listen to the little old lady in this clip. That's the market's attitude toward PPHM -- despite the plethora of rosy scenarios I read here about a 39 cent stock:
Thank you, MH, for taking the time to write such a comprehensive and cogent analysis.
Excellent post and on the money on all counts. The frustration on this board is due to the fact that the optimists cannot understand the simply stated bottom line point of view that you articulated in your last post. And those of us who are not optimists about Bavi cannot understand why the optimists equate the legitimate theory behind Bavi with the actual success of Bavi.
Frustrating for both points of view.
Good work, cheynew. Thank you.
Paul, your scenario is my nightmare. For those who have never lived through a reverse split with this company, permit me to illustrate the corrosive effects:
20,000 = 2000 shares after a 1 for 10 RS (which given the share price would be the probable ratio)
Post RS price = $4.00 (at today's share price)
Shorts (who have ALWAYS controlled this security except for a brief period in 2012) do their usual dance: SP = $1.50 - $1.00.
Avid propels the company to $7.00: at 20,000 shares I would have had $140,000 and made up 80% of my losses of the past 16 years; now, post RS: $14,000. I'm stil deep in the hole.
So for those of you who pound the drumbeat that a RS affects nothing, it would only be true if post RS the share price ignored past history and headed north at a serious pace. But even then, let's say that after the RS by some miracle the share price went to $50. If I had my original 20,000 shares I'd have $1 million. With the RS, I'd have $200,000. Not exactly ASTRONOMICAL is it, Dr. King?
And PLEASE don't suggest that I should have bought more when it is this cheap. I had 40,000 shares at the time of the last RS. BUILT IT BACK TO 20,000. Fool me once.......etc etc.
The reverse split is THE nightmare.
Paul. Well said. I understand the point of view of the optimists. I want them to be right, but I am unable to sustain a rational faith in Bavi without unambiguous evidence.
Good post. Thanks for your thoughts.
Cheynew - I think we're both looking for reasons to hope. I'm truly puzzled by the optimists and keep thinking I'm missing something.
St. Peregrine: patron saint of those suffering from cancer.
Regarding a RS: let's say it's 1:10 (at the present PPS, that's the only number that would make sense). I don't agree that it is a neutral. In terms of sheer worth, yes. However, let's say I hold 15,000 shares and I was calculating holding till PPHM hit $50 (before, of course, the SUNRISE debacle). I was counting on selling at a profit of approximately $750K. After the split, I'll own 1500 shares. At $50, I would have only $75K. The share price would have to go to $500 to recoup my original calculation.
THAT is the crime. I've already gone through the 1:5 RS and had 40,000 shares reduced to 8,000. Do the Math. It ain't pretty.
Thanks, chey. Again, I hope I'm wrong on all of it.
sulaco, I understand what you are saying. I really do.
I know you don't think I was comparing my knowledge with that of Jed Wolcott's. But Jed has had to throw in the towel on some of the largest biotech trials -- even as the investors thought that his very testing of their product was a sign that there was something significant being produced by their company. So simply throwing out a researcher's name as if it lends some kind of magical quality to the biologic he is testing simply is not logical. Is he still researching BAVI? I don't know. Do you? Will we be told in a timely manner that he is no longer researching BAVI? I don't know; do you?
But regardless of who's still researching BAVI, the optimists on this Board have to contend with the fact that management has not given us a crumb of hard evidence that there's more to this story after so many years. They leave us only with more questions: questions that are answered hypothetically by writers who offer optimistic scenarios; these are good people but they are generally the same good people who assured us that SUNRISE was a slam dunk.
When I hear, for instance, that King said in the catastrophic presser in February that BAVI had performed as expected, there has been an entire narrative of hope created which would lead one to believe that he was signaling that BAVI continues on the path to success. Yet, in that same presser, he said that the termination of SUNRISE was a huge disappointment. He gave no qualifications to that statement. One could argue, I guess, that his relating that BAVI testing would continue with immuno synergies was indirectly stating that the path to success is still on the straight and narrow. But he never said that. We are left with conjecture, but nothing more.
You make the failure of SUNRISE to be a small blip on a radar screen. It wasn't: not for this company. A lot of scarce resources were poured into this trial. We hung, in the investment world (ask the Board member who wrote the excellent stories about BAVI on Seeking Alpha), the reputation of BAVI on this Phase III. Added to the other negative perceptions of the Street regarding this company and this was a solid hit to the hull of the USS PPHM. Can the damage be repaired? I wouldn't rule it out, but I am overloaded with skepticism.
My slim retention of an ounce of hope hangs on the possibility that, for whatever reason, BAVI requires more time to work than what its been given the ability to demonstrate. This was offered as a possibility after the failure with whatever the Defense Department was using it to test as well as something to do (years ago) with either pancreatic or liver cancer (I cannot remember).
I agree with you that the field is too dynamic for outlandish expectations. But that argument works against us as well. The field of cancer research is moving so quickly that whatever BAVI can or cannot do may be obsolete by the time it registers any hard successes.
Bottom line: a small biotech does not throw its meager resources into a very rare Phase III lightly (unless this management is even more inept that what I even have considered). Forcing a small biotech like PPHM to shutdown a trial in the biotech investment world is devastating. I don't think this point has been made sufficiently clear.
I'm in no position, by the way, to call anyone a fool. I've stuck with this investment since 2000. I've read your posts pre-February and admired your putting yourself on the line in defense of BAVI and PPHM. I've just reached a different conclusion 10 weeks after the SUNRISE shutdown. I hope and pray that I'm wrong. I just cannot mentally embrace an optimistic scenario regarding BAVI at this juncture. AVID is real. BAVI is a potential citizen in a far away country. Sell BAVI (if it's even possible) and turn PPHM into a manufacturing power house. I think that is the best investment going forward.
Good luck to you and all of us.