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GLD chart shows a move to 160 to 180 from here very possible. Like that over the latest stock ragers of GOOG, BIDU and AAPL.
MOO looks to be finding footing and heading higher. Could be the silent money maker.
New Zealand dollar with nice moves, its too bad not enough people play the currency options cause the spreads are too large, if more people played them the spreads would tighten. Especially with lesser known currencies such as New Zealand.
USD is down hard at 0.5% premarket, Silver up 0.4% and Gold down 0.2%, Gold must just be taking a rest cause there are no debt talks effecting it this morning.
Copper getting interesting, FCX seems to be the play with it.
I think every country has some debt issues and debt is healthy to a degree but we may need that curve to come down 50% some how over the next several years.
Gold and SIlver being surpassed by an Apple rush but is it a double top or will it keep going ? GLD and SLV seem safer for now.
Great article on how Reagan dealt with the economic crisis in the early 80s.
Lower individual taxes, Raise Business Taxes. Offer spending cuts
( those never took hold but it didnt matter cause the lower personal
income taxes probably led to the recovery in 1983 ).
Even individuals running major corporations may appreciate lower
income taxes and probably can deal with higher business taxes.
Sounds good lets do it Mr. Obama.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-07-22-reagan-obama-economy-1980s-taxes_n.htm
Naturally since they are options the best options to buy are ones that move over 50% in 6 months ideally. and options with call put spreads at a minimum.
Since AAPL is one of the most common trades of late that is what is used in the paper trade.
Change to the Risk Management strategy, Even Spread instead of 2-1-1
So its a 1-1-1-1 spread. Trying it out in paper trading through
Optionshouse. For example the 1-1-1-1 means 1,000 bucks to buy a
call, 1,000 bucks to buy a put same expiration date at least 3 months out
1,000 bucks to protect against flatlining with a sell of a call
1,000 bucks to protect against flatlining with sell of a put.
Total investment in this example 4000 bucks 1-1-1-1 at 1,000 bucks
per trade. Will check results at intervals of one month or so.
Dietary Changes that are interesting:
Dropping: Eggs, Cheese, Butter, Steaks, Hamburger, Fish, Chicken
Adding: Pasta and Red Sauce, Pasta and Basil Pesto, Rice and frozen
Veggies, Rice and fresh asparagus, Rice and Fresh Broccoli.
attempts to lower cholesterol, and fat content. Not Atkins Diet approved but that diet is way too loaded with bad heart stuff.
Some Semis won today like CY, and AMD, its a day to day watch with new winners moving. AAPL still moving up.
Change in strategy instead of a ratio of 2-1-1 for selling a call or put and buying a call and a put.
We now have even distribution, of 1-1-1-1
Here are the trades to make a proper straddle.
1 trade that sells a call at a value of 10,000 on the bid
1 trade that sells a put at a value of 10,000 on the ask
1 trade that buys a call at a value of 10,000 on the ask
1 trade that buys a put at a value of 10,000 on the bid
This in theory should cover the stock if it travels flat, up or down and will both preserve cash and make it if it moves far in any direction.
I BELIEVE THIS WILL WORK TO OPPOSE DIRECTIONAL RISK !!!
The only weighting that isnt factored in is the implied volatility
and therefore the premium in the options price, if the stock has
been rising for a bit the premium is high in the calls, and
dropping puts etc. so this will not make the straddle a perfect
balanced risk trade but lets see how close it can protect and
gain.
One day VIX trade was another mistake, measure twice cut once is all I can say there. Should have picked the one week puts and not the one day put. VIX doesnt move much that fast.
This last post attempts to remove directional risk which is definately the number one reason NOT to profit in options investing.
Hope it works, fingers crossed.
Just thought of a possible risk free trade strategy. In options why
wouldn't one take a 2 to 1 to 1 spread in money distribution and
just Sell a call for 2 buy a call for 1 and buy a put for 1. Seems
like all your bases are covered that way.
So you have $40,000 dollars for options trading apple, would it be fool
proof to allocate $20,000 and sell a call ( need a margin account for this )
then $10,000 dollars to buy a call, and $10,000 dollars to buy a put.
This way it seems that your covered if the stock stays flat within '
the price of the call sold, and your covered if the stock moves in
either direction. Need to practice this trade using the mock
account at Options House. I shall run this trade for a month or
so and see how it goes.
Ran the trade with AAPL for 40k in virtual funds in selling a call
the Jan 190 2012 Call for $20,005 cost basis. Bought a call at Jan
295 strike Call for $10,050 bucks. and Bought a PUT at Jan 485 Put
at $9,875. The trade starts out with a deficit from commissions
and Spreads between Bid/ask at only a $150 dollar loss, lets see
how it goes over time.
That guy Jim Iurio thought that CAT would beat on CNBC boy all the PROs got this wrong wrong wrong
CAT and Honeywell both miss, SUX... crappy day on the way.
I hear ya all the new rules and regulations are expensive and may be hurting growth a little. But the agile and hi performance firms will adapt quickly and others wont.
Watching CATs earnings and have some VIX puts in case the dollar slide continues or the VIX continues to drop.. Weeklies on the VIXes though so need it to happen NOW, hehe.
My Favorite Quote of Today: Unless you BUY IT and TRY IT, YOU Will NEVER KNOW !!!
AAPL is at a buy high and sell higher, What great earnings, 7.31 is
the EPS when estimates called for $5.85. IPAD was the best
recommend that could have happened, thank you Got Options, Your
welcome Mr. Market.
HOFBRAU OKTOBERFEST is worth mentioning again for the pleasant aftertaste it is leaving on the Pallet.
I guess its Hofbrau vs Spaten Oktoberfest, judging from memory of the Spaten I would pick the HOFBRAU, I dont know how you could improve upon this OKTOBERFEST flavor.
This passes as a summer beer but as I am learning it is many times more expensive than Corona and harder to find in the Liquor store than Sweaty Betty, Busch, and other good summer beers mentioned.
Incidently to fit the spirit of this: The boys of summer:
STOUDTS DOUBLE IPA is so good it is worth an individual POST:
The flavor is AWESOME, smooth, sweet, and a little bitter. The after
taste is one of the best on the tongue aftertastes I can remember.
Stats on the bottle are: STOUDTS DOUBLE IPA, Bottle Conditioned
India Pale Ale Microbrewed Beer, ADAMSTOWN Pennsylvania, 19501
Despite what might seem like a domestic Bias I am truly unpartial to
any location of a brewery and am all about the "talent" or flavor
of the beer. That is what I lay my hard earned dollars down for.
UP THE DISTRIBUTION TO MASSACHUSETTS FOR STOUDTS DOUBLE IPA is my take on the dealio..
FINDING THE BEST SUMMER BEER VIA TASTE TEST CONTINUED:
SWEATY BETTY Wheat is the Best drinkable beer so far
http://www.boulderbeer.com/NewsApril05.htm#Betty
AVENTINUS Wheat Dopplebock is the best sipper beer for one 12 oz bottle or two
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Aventinus_weizen.jpg
=================================================================
Next Beers to test:
BROOKLYN LAGER: ( couldnt find the pilsner )
http://www.brooklynbrewery.com/
Great Lager Flavor from BROOKLYN, I find that it tastes close in proximity to Sam Adams and cannot distinguish the two much. Its a Lager so it wont make best summer beer but definately worth a drink.
HOFBRAU OKTOBERFEST MUNCHEN ( sounds like a standard ocotberfest in Germany )
http://www.hofbrauhaus.us/content/beer.php?beer_id=22
This one is tasty and could definately pass for a summer beer,
Well October is often warm during many days so lets call it one of the best October beers and leave it at that. This is a must buy for beer though cause it is very smooth and very tasty.
Sweaty Betty still holds best summer beer however despite the less than stellar website and absolutely no Hype for this beer.
DOGFISH 90 MINUTE IPA ( Won best beer of America Award ):
http://www.dogfish.com/brews-spirits/the-brews/year-round-brews/90-minute-ipa.htm
Amber in color, much anticipation for this one, Wow one of the most flavorful beers I have ever had, not for swilling but for sipping, Chocolatey taste, hopsy but not over bitter, salty taste as well, tastes like a chocolate covered pretzel with salt, best analogy I can come up with. Gotta Give Sweaty Betty the edge over this one for drinking in the SUMMER, this one good for the rest of the year. A Must BUY in Six Pack form, hehe.
STOUDTS DOUBLE IPA ( couldnt find the Pilsner ):
http://www.stoudtsbeer.com/brewery.html
Wow I find myself comparing STOUDTS to DOGFISH and wanting to determine which is better.. After all you cant buy every six pack in the world, hehe.
Tasting STOUDTS Double IPA I would have to guess that its malty cause its smooth and sweet a bit, IPAs appear to be salty flavored but here I dont know if it is chocolate. On the sweeter side.
I will have to go with the STOUDTS over DOGFISH, despite what I liked for marketing with DOGFISH. If you like bubbly over malty I would pick the Dogfish, If you like that malty smooth taste its STOUDTS, both of these are not going to Dethrone SWEATY BETTY.
So FOR THIS ROUND OF TASTE TESTS SWEATY BETTY IS the WINNER
ALL of these are good beers some better for sipping, some are very close in caliber to SWEATY BETTY so it was a tough call but I actually am choosing the Least Hyped, Least Promoted and Possibly most Unknown BEER to win this. Which says many positive things about Microbrews without ad budgets. CHEERS ENJOY and to reiterate
UNLESS YOU BUY IT AND TRY IT, YOU WILL NEVER KNOW, HEHE
SUMMER BEER TASTE TEST ( Continued )KOLSCH vs SWEATY BETTY
Reisdorf KOLSCH also a light colored beer no amber color to it at all
Subtle flavors difficult to distinguish but tastes like pretzel a bit
KOlsch is right up there with the best of summer beers Highly Recommend
However personal opinion would suggest that the Boulder Brew is a bit
better of a summer beer. Sometimes you cannot tell these things until
much more consumption to find out if you like the flavor over the long
haul. But this one bears more interest as a summer beer. APPROVED !!
However all things considered price and quality SWeaty Betty still WINS !!!
WOW MORE SURPRISES: A LOCAL UNKNOWN.. PAPER CITY BREWING HOLYOKE MASS, CABOT STREET WHEAT...
If your a fan of American Beers like BUD and BUSCH but want more local and more Texture and body in the beer go Paper CITY folks.
This would tend to apply only to Massachusetts residents or however the reach of this company has in distribution.
HOWEVER SWEATY BETTY STILL WINS !!!
MIDSUMMER BEER TASTING INTERMISSION: What is with this Boulder
Colorado Sweaty BETTY STUFF ???? WOW I am surprised and
impressed
Sweaty Betty VS G. Schneider & Sohn AVENTINUS WHEAT DOPPELBOCK
This is a difficult comparison, cause AVENTINUS tastes like a winter beer
For drinking in small quantity I vote Aventinus as the superior beer for less than 2 beers.
For drinking 3 or more go with the Sweaty Betty its smoother and you
wont get sick of the flavor over many beers.
AVENTINUS wins as a PREMIUM BEER with the most complex, best tasting
flavors but its a bit like those umbrella drinks you dont want to
overdo it.
SWEATY BETTY still wins as the summer beer since you dont
sip beers in the summer you swill them, in the winter drinking
alone go for the Aventinus, OH and by the way AVENTINUS is the
premium choice since it is 3 times the cost of the Sweaty Betty.
And now for the Big Guns of World Summer Brews
Magic Hat Brewing Vermont CIRCUS BOY Hefeweizen vs. Boulder Sweaty Betty
Circus Boy: Nice texture, color but the flavor pales to Boulders
wheat beer, taste difficult to distinguish but that nutmeg/cinnamon
flavor we all love from magic hat comes through slightly.
SWEATY BETTY WINS !!! I am just as surprised as many on this...
Boulder Beer Companies Sweaty Betty VS. SAM ADAMS COASTAL WHEAT
Sam Adams Coastal: It would take a real expert to distinguish the
difference here but to the novice taste tester this beer tastes a
little more muddy than Sweaty Betty.
Sweaty Betty Wins !!!
Big Surprise win Sweaty Betty WINS
Grolsch vs. Sweaty Betty Boulder Colorado Wheat Ale
Sweaty Betty is amazingly smooth, good flavor, very light yellow
color, no harsh aftertaste.
Hmmm I think Grolsch and Sweaty Betty are in two different
categories but so far Sweaty Betty beats Sam Adams Summer for Wheat
Beers.
Sweaty Betty WINS.. Somehow as full bodied, flavorful and smoother
than Grolsch, I did not expect that
GO PILSNER is the result so far
TEST #4: PILSNER VS WHEAT
GROLSCH Pilsner VS. SAM ADAMS SUMMER WHEAT ALE
Now here I will attempt to not include a bias towards a local
favorite called Sam Adams Brewery, haha.
Wheat vs Pilsner probably would lead to alot of controversy
Sam Adams Wheat: Wheat flavor is slightly more bitter tasting than
the Pilsner, very smooth texture though and same color as Grolsch
Beer however it is cloudy versus clear for Grolsch.
GROLSCH WINS, so at least initially Pilsner wins over Wheat Beers.
Yes Reply to Bird Guy, thanks for the concern however I am only
tasting and sealing up bottles to prevent losing tasting ability to
drunkedness, haha. But the science of this has top priority and
just waiting for Apple earnings which should be interesting.
Cheers,
Got Options.
Well due to lack of more World Pilsners for now Grolsch is the
winning Pilsner for summer beers. The next round of testing is
PILSNER vs. WHEAT BEER and then finding the best Wheat Beer for the
ultimate goal of finding the best summer beer based on these
tastings anyways. ( results may vary based upon
personal taste of taster ).
TASTING PILSNERS continued: GROLSCH VS. PILSNER URQUELL
PILSNER URQUELL: Slightly more mild tasting than Grolsch, but the
flavor you do taste is good. Light amber yellow in color. If you
dont like hops bitter taste this is the beer for you. PLZEN,
CZECHOSLOVAKIA.
GROLSCH: Slightly more bodied and more hopsy and flavor is as good
as URQUELL, so the slight edge goes to GROLSCH WINS TEST #3
MIDSUMMER BEER TASTING (PILSNERS), Taste Test #2 BUSCH VS. GROLSCH
Grolsch Pilsner: Amber Yellow in color, Smooth, only slightly hoppy
more body and texture than Busch, clearly a better beer, GROLSCH
WINS
BUSCH: Smooth, a bit watery, less body, pure yellow in color
Nice Job Dutchie, Pole Position so far. Grolsch almost twice the
cost but at least you are getting more of what you paid for.
MIDSUMMER BEER TASTING, Wide Variety Style
Taste comparison #1 Lagunitis Pils VS. Busch ( in can )
Lagunitis Pils, Pilsner
Amber yellow in color, hoppy and sharp tasting, not preferred in
the summer I tend to like smoother flavors
Busch Beer... Basic american pilsner/lager smooth tasting a little
watered down but goes down the hatch easy with no bitter
aftertaste
Winner of Test #1... Busch beer at 5 dollars per six pack versus 9
dollars per six of the Lagunitis... Also some rankings for
Lagunitis rank it #1 for pilsner beers, I would tend to DISAGREE,
haha but you dont know until you buy it and try it.