military industrial complex alive and well

conflict of interest

NIOBF trades 2018

Close Prices Last 3 Months
Date Ex Sym Open High Low Close Chg Vol #Tr Bid Ask
2018-04-04 Q NIOBF 0.47288 0.49 0.4695 0.48 0.01 41,588 44 0.418 0.514
2018-04-03 Q NIOBF 0.4769 0.48996 0.465 0.47 34,806 16 0.4012 0.514
2018-04-02 Q NIOBF 0.481159 0.48732 0.47 0.47 -0.00146 54,186 47 0.459 0.493
2018-03-30 Q NIOBF 0.48597 0.48597 0.4577 0.47146 -0.00244 179,895 0
2018-03-29 Q NIOBF 0.48597 0.48597 0.4577 0.47146 -0.00244 179,895 66 0.25 0.70
2018-03-28 Q NIOBF 0.4641 0.488 0.46 0.4739 -0.0011 67,963 26 0.423 0.546
2018-03-27 Q NIOBF 0.514 0.514 0.47 0.475 -0.005 55,174 43 0.458 0.555
2018-03-26 Q NIOBF 0.51 0.51074 0.47695 0.48 -0.0096 97,149 36 0.43 0.53
2018-03-23 Q NIOBF 0.501 0.5014 0.4896 0.4896 -0.0124 57,547 29 0.4687 0.503
2018-03-22 Q NIOBF 0.5054 0.50898 0.495 0.502 -0.0028 78,697 56 0.4665 0.545
2018-03-21 Q NIOBF 0.50699 0.51 0.49 0.5048 0.0108 111,028 66 0.4677 0.509
2018-03-20 Q NIOBF 0.51 0.51 0.492 0.494 -0.016 147,653 54 0.459 0.529
2018-03-19 Q NIOBF 0.4945 0.533 0.4945 0.51 -0.0115 119,506 51 0.47 0.538
2018-03-16 Q NIOBF 0.52225 0.53574 0.51 0.5215 0.02 85,665 57 0.465 0.58
2018-03-15 Q NIOBF 0.522 0.53 0.5015 0.5015 -0.0211 80,116 44 0.50 0.568
2018-03-14 Q NIOBF 0.523 0.523 0.50575 0.5226 0.0192 40,482 36 0.488 0.523
2018-03-13 Q NIOBF 0.55 0.55 0.5034 0.5034 -0.0156 157,385 65 0.49 0.5315
2018-03-12 Q NIOBF 0.5436 0.5501 0.5166 0.519 -0.0137 225,922 96 0.50 0.60
2018-03-09 Q NIOBF 0.51 0.5423 0.51 0.5327 0.01914 93,505 58 0.517 0.548
2018-03-08 Q NIOBF 0.53 0.5385 0.496 0.51356 -0.01684 122,026 106 0.483 0.533
2018-03-07 Q NIOBF 0.5126 0.5366 0.4987 0.5304 0.0304 161,160 74 0.492 0.533
2018-03-06 Q NIOBF 0.4835 0.5133 0.48298 0.50 0.01 194,510 94 0.488 0.549
2018-03-05 Q NIOBF 0.51 0.526 0.481 0.49 -0.0267 241,051 91 0.456 0.552
2018-03-02 Q NIOBF 0.521 0.5458 0.50 0.5167 -0.0084 117,858 74 0.5077 0.60
2018-03-01 Q NIOBF 0.54 0.547 0.507229 0.5251 -0.0149 95,518 51 0.481 0.582
2018-02-28 Q NIOBF 0.595 0.595 0.54 0.54 -0.0451 146,113 80 0.526 0.551
2018-02-27 Q NIOBF 0.599 0.60 0.58 0.5851 -0.0085 146,369 58 0.543 0.63
2018-02-26 Q NIOBF 0.60 0.6021 0.575 0.5936 0.0038 316,529 137 0.538 0.63
2018-02-23 Q NIOBF 0.5875 0.59 0.5659 0.5898 0.0128 280,733 119 0.58 0.63
2018-02-22 Q NIOBF 0.545 0.58 0.545 0.577 0.038 223,764 121 0.535 0.585
2018-02-21 Q NIOBF 0.52 0.546 0.515 0.539 0.019 154,084 89 0.452 0.55
2018-02-20 Q NIOBF 0.525 0.5318 0.509057 0.52 0.00661 104,556 69 0.469 0.55
2018-02-19 Q NIOBF 0.505 0.5155 0.4983 0.51339 0.01339 315,389 0
2018-02-16 Q NIOBF 0.505 0.5155 0.4983 0.51339 0.01339 315,389 101 0.44 0.527
2018-02-15 Q NIOBF 0.489918 0.50 0.4733 0.50 0.0182 140,491 69 0.45 0.51
2018-02-14 Q NIOBF 0.4802 0.49 0.4672 0.4818 0.0012 64,818 50 0.45 0.494
2018-02-13 Q NIOBF 0.467 0.481 0.46 0.4806 0.0102 91,203 61 0.45 0.482
2018-02-12 Q NIOBF 0.491523 0.491523 0.4548 0.4704 0.0048 50,949 39 0.4313 0.51
2018-02-09 Q NIOBF 0.4653 0.49 0.455 0.4656 0.0006 96,314 95 0.447 0.491
2018-02-08 Q NIOBF 0.475 0.49 0.465 0.465 0.005 60,235 43 0.455 0.49
2018-02-07 Q NIOBF 0.4749 0.4767 0.4472 0.46 0.004855 24,484 39 0.40 0.49
2018-02-06 Q NIOBF 0.455 0.476 0.4525 0.455145 -0.018855 56,309 45 0.442 0.4691
2018-02-05 Q NIOBF 0.4534 0.49 0.4534 0.474 0.0262 126,403 59 0.4342 0.49
2018-02-02 Q NIOBF 0.4714 0.48 0.4472 0.4478 -0.0462 103,367 109 0.429 0.4723
2018-02-01 Q NIOBF 0.5025 0.505 0.47 0.494 0.005 90,048 37 0.428 0.52
2018-01-31 Q NIOBF 0.5099 0.51 0.48 0.489 -0.0078 48,233 41 0.45 0.55
2018-01-30 Q NIOBF 0.50 0.507 0.475 0.4968 -0.00732 128,785 58 0.489 0.572
2018-01-29 Q NIOBF 0.493 0.519933 0.493 0.50412 -0.00588 108,541 102 0.495 0.511
2018-01-26 Q NIOBF 0.4959 0.5129 0.4873 0.51 0.03 31,462 31 0.465 0.53
2018-01-25 Q NIOBF 0.5109 0.5109 0.4764 0.48 0.0055 39,727 38 0.477 0.502
2018-01-24 Q NIOBF 0.4795 0.52742 0.4745 0.4745 -0.005 111,988 85 0.443 0.53
2018-01-23 Q NIOBF 0.4838 0.4838 0.4591 0.4795 -0.0042 55,603 58 0.469 0.488
2018-01-22 Q NIOBF 0.47 0.5029 0.4593 0.4837 -0.0163 114,455 62 0.452 0.479
2018-01-19 Q NIOBF 0.516 0.516 0.4807 0.50 -0.004 48,032 33 0.482 0.51
2018-01-18 Q NIOBF 0.51 0.534282 0.499 0.504 0.0055 186,748 78 0.486 0.537
2018-01-17 Q NIOBF 0.4709 0.511 0.4632 0.4985 0.0379 197,028 108 0.4692 0.511
2018-01-16 Q NIOBF 0.4783 0.4783 0.4323 0.4606 0.0281 86,503 53 0.41 0.49
2018-01-12 Q NIOBF 0.45 0.4656 0.4229 0.4325 -0.0326 239,973 81 0.42 0.474
2018-01-11 Q NIOBF 0.485 0.493 0.45 0.4651 -0.0549 326,322 136 0.45 0.524
2018-01-10 Q NIOBF 0.5316 0.5316 0.5166 0.522084 -0.01261 64,769 37 0.488 0.54
2018-01-09 Q NIOBF 0.55 0.55239 0.53 0.53261 -0.00369 83,687 43 0.5003 0.54
2018-01-08 Q NIOBF 0.505 0.5502 0.505 0.5363 0.0206 93,035 63 0.518 0.537

great post - I will save that for the archives.

Canada has lots of cheap hydro electicity to make aluminum

Alley Nb deposit in BC
https://www.tasekomines.com/properties/aley

Large undeveloped asset: The world's largest niobium deposit, outside the two operating mines in Brazil
84 million tonne proven and probable reserve @ 0.50% Nb2O5

share ownership - got a breakdown ?

Buy American
this would work for Elk

https://investorintel.com/sectors/uranium-energy/uranium-energy-intel/concern-impact-u-s-national-security-dependency-foreign-uranium-sources-unites-industry-leaders/

Head office in USA is best imo.

Largo MS became CEO in March 2015
http://www.largoresources.com/English/investors/news/news-release-details/2015/Largo-Provides-Corporate-Update-and-Announces-New-Chief-Executive-Officer/default.aspx

Investor belief in a stock when there are serious fundamental issues about the viability is the other side of the coin.
Community sentiment currently bullish.

I have posted about CBMM. There several other undeveloped deposits in Kenya, Canada, Australia
US has bigger problems than worrying about Nb diversification. Brazil is a very safe supplier country imo. Australia, Canada rank same.
Isn't the TK offtake for there steel operations outside of US ? So much for US consumption.
My view of the Nb offtakes is that they will take it at prevailing spot prices if Niocorp spends $1 billion to construct Elk.

As long as they advise them that it will take 3-4 years for delivery.
I don't buy the critical materials arguement for Niobium when there is a unlimited supply of Nb in Brazil.

Russia REEs
this from NB I Hub

https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/russia-revs-production-rare-earths-scandium/?utm_source=InvestorIntel+General+Email+List&utm_campaign=d4153c4bc2-INVESTOR_INTEL_DAILY_RSS&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e78262a875-d4153c4bc2-46124525

Largo Q4 results will be interesting.
LGO has been saved by rising V prices in 2017

Largo Q3
Debt is approx. $260 million
Largo's vanadium operation Brazil is operating in the green currently.

see page 449
"niobium sales as modelled would cover cost of production for all 3 commodities but Sc sales will be required to generate positive cash flow to
cover" loans / interest and dividends.
A lot of the $1 billion capex will be loans that needs to be repaid.

Niobium revenue is dependent on CBMM maintaining current $40/kg spot price.
If they drop price to squeeze other producers that would cut into Elk revenue.

Lots of risk

judging by the sentiment graph I am not sure that the risk is recognized.
Page 449 is a red flag considering that Sc is 66% of the revenue stream that the glowing FS economics are based on.

page 449
The Project will obviously benefit from becoming a stable, domestic US producer of Nb and Sc2O3 where currently all supplies must be imported from abroad. However, this valuation is most dependent upon the sale of all annual Sc2O3 production from startup as it accounts for 66% of LoM
gross revenue generated. At the extreme, at a cash cost of US$37.59/kg Nb and current US$40/kg benchmark price and assuming no Sc2O3 revenue it is apparent that Nb sales (32% of gross revenue generated) as modelled would cover the cost of production for all three commodities but Sc2O3 sales
will be required to generate positive cash flow to cover any Project loan principal repayments/interest expense and meet investment criteria for stakeholders.
Although 75% of Nb sales in the first 10 years are currently covered by offtake agreements, the revenues generated under those contracts are still sensitive to the benchmark Nb price currently set
in the technical economic model at US$40/kg. The benchmark price is exposed to competitive pressure.
SRK notes for disclosure purposes that there are project risks related to the scandium market including:
• Currently a well developed commercial application for uses of scandium in the volumes projected in this technical report do not exist;
• Scandium may not be adopted by aerospace firms as anticipated;
• Multiple scandium producers may come into the market simultaneously; and
• NioCorp’s products may not command specialty chemical pricing.

Strategic reserve
Since Elk is the only known niobium and only known scandium deposit of a large size in USA it should be kept as a reserve for the future unknown.
Why squander it ?

How big is CBMM ?

Niobium Resources
As of December 2012, mineral reserves in the residual ore totaled nearly 808 million tonnes with an average of 2.3% Nb2O5.

Fresh rock mineral resources were estimated at approximately 1.8 billion tonnes with an average of 1.5% Nb2O5. Evidence collected from drill holes to a depth of 820 meters still intersect mineralized rock, indicating the likelihood that additional reserves probably extend even deeper.

Considering the current market, the mineral resources in Araxá measured in the residual ore and potentially existent in the fresh rock indicate that CBMM will be able to supply the world demand for niobium products for many decades to come.

The ore is friable and the mining operations are carried out in an open pit with no need of explosives. The thickness of the residual ore reaches 250 meters.

http://www.cbmm.com.br/en/Pages/geology.aspx

Does not hurt to refresh this for the benefit of all current posters who may not be aware of the situation.

Also offtakes for Nb that Elk has are at prevailing spot prices without any financial contribution towards capex. These type of offtakes are better than nothing. They could include some $$ to help finance the $1 Billion capex if the offtakers were really committed.

What is your take on Cradle Resources?
Cradle Nb - $200 million capex
Scandium International scy - $200 million capex
$400 million total capex for both
One heck of a lot less than $1 billion for Elk

CBMM
70% Brazil Moriera Group
15% Chinese
15% Japanese / South Koreans (attn: millman not north koreans)

http://www.cbmm.com.br/en/Pages/About-CBMM.aspx

Chinese own 15% of CBMM

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cbmm-niobium/china-baosteel-group-buys-1-95-bln-stake-in-brazil-cbmm-idUSTRE7811UB20110902

CBMM can increase production easily

USGS Niobium Report

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/niobium/mcs-2015-niobi.pdf

Brazil dominates in production and reserves