Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
That’s the 64000 dollar question. The update that had been envisioned to come with the second quarter results turned out to be a punt. Quote “ remobilization is expected to begin in the coming weeks” then “continuing to review the impact on the timeline and budget”. We’re close to the end of the third quarter and the project has been idled for 6 months. Resumption will likely be slow in my opinion, I believe that a delay in production is inevitable. Keep your fingers crossed.
Building a battery factory in northern Nevada is a great idea....oh wait.... someone did it already TESLA!! The gigafactory has been built in Sparks Nevada at a cost of 5 BILLION dollars. The author of that article is delusional. Tha company has already stated that building the plant for the eventual Nevada mine would cost just short of a billion dollar. The entire enterprise value of the company is about 700 millions. Good luck with that math.
Quoted from three most recent update from the company “ The Company is coordinating closely with the Province of Jujuy, local communities, unions and its workforce on the safe restart of operations and the implementation of additional COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
Remobilization is expected to begin in the coming weeks and will be gradual in order to allow time to adopt as well as progressively assess and refine the pandemic related operating protocols.
The Company is continuing to review the impacts of the temporary suspension of the project on the timeline and budget and will provide an update once the assessments have been completed. “. It seems to leave a lot to interpretation .....working to implement protocol? Expected to begin in the coming weeks(months?) reviewing impact? A month ago they alluded to an update by the 2nd qtr report. Looks like they’re punting with vague statements. On the positive side the stock IS moving on good volume. Somebody know something!!!!!
I know... that news was out on the 14th but.... the eps number was MINUS -.07 cents
What revenue? There are no revenues. The only thing I can think to explain this run up is someone looking to buy this company.... Gangfang?
You’re right! Lately it has gone straight up aided by a falling dollar AND an overall market that continues to deny reality(my opinion). I readily admitted in previous posts that I jumped the gun and lost a great opportunity, however, the fat lady has not sung yet. Time will tell. Consider the following... Nov 17 $10.78 Dec18 $2.95 73% dip, Apr 19 $4.89 78% spike, Nov 19 $2.75 44% dip, Feb 20 $6.03 119% spike, Mar 20 $1.92 71% dip, current $7.26 278% spike. Granted those are levels no one could predict and count on, but, some recurrence of swings will happen again unless all goes well from here on in.
trust me Tiko, I’m not giving up. I’m convinced that this virus thing will DEFINITELY result in further delays too the production date. That will give us more opportunities to buy the dips and sell the spikes. It just would have been so easy to increase my holdings had I waited a couple more weeks to make my move. Good luck!
Tiko, the dip will be muted by the falling dollar. Bad news for me, as I pointed out to you I sold out entirely at around the $5 level expecting a lower SP after the second quarter report (bad news???) it cost me dearly (&50000).
I agree Tiko, the overall ev market is expanding and lithium price will follow, another undeniable factor is the falling dollar. Lithium companies are seeing the effect as is the entire materials space +15% since June 25th. In the same time frame Abemarle and SQM are up 12%
Selling at $6.00 would be a no brainer. Unfortunately I sold at a lower level after the original virus news. I do think that after the latest update we’ll be faced with an additional delay in production and possibly a cost overrun. That should result in a SP decline however the recent price action does not seem to follow my logic. Oh well, not the first time I might turn out to be wrong! Time will tell
The big run up day on strong volume coincided with the latest release on the virus situation at the Argentine project. When I read the update I could not find anything positive. What am I missing? Any thoughts ?
Tiko... I find no fault with a hold and wait viewpoint. I may regret my move I’m not sure I’m right. I just think that a rush to $10 is not likely therefore the chance to increase my position is considerable while the result of having to buy in at a price higher than I sold is minimal. The recent SP spike could be due to overall market rally, recent strength in all materials (Sqm and alb as an example) , and maybe a short squeeze.
Hey Tiko.... I dug around looking for good news to explain today’s price spike (at good volume), instead I found out that construction has been halted again due to some workers testing positive with the virus. Following up on my thinking expressed in my earlier post I sold the remaining 12000 shares at 5.60. At this time I’m totally out!!! However let me be clear, I still believe LAC will do well in the long run.
In early Feb I sold 12000 shares at $5.40. I bought back in Mar under $3 and gained 6000 shares. I than held a total of 26000 shares. recently(two weeks ago) I sold 14000 shares at 4.50 and this is why. When Argentina started back up the company stated that it was TOO EARLY to assess the impact of the shut down. In the release from Jun 23rd they "anticipate construction to be completed by mid-2021" at the very least production won't start until the second half of the year. That's a DELAY. Later in the release they stated the following "The Company expects to provide a further UPDATE WITH Q2 2020 RESULTS".
This is how I read the tea leaves..... they're postponing the inevitable...there WILL BE FURTHER delay in production and possibly cost overruns. If I'm right I will re-invest when the price hits the mid 3's and increase my holdings by 8000/12000 shares, if not I will still buy back at some time and lose some leverage. I'll wair for the q2 report sometimes in mid-August and act acorrdingly.
What earnings? We don’t have any! All we’re going to get is the usual regurgitations plus likely hints at further delays using the virus excuse that the entire business community uses whether applicable or not!
I suspect you'll be getting your wish for lower prices soon but... be careful about what you wish for. The stoppage of construction could lead to a delay of production and ... cost overrun, more cash burn, need for more credit etc. etc.
Over the years I expressed my misgivings about the organic lay operation (losses during a booming fracking business) . I thought they should have shut it down. It finally happened but they did not bother to tell us about it, they simply referenced the occasion in a note toward the end of the year end report. A fast perusal of the available data totals total losses in excess of 25 million dollars. I need a scalp!!!!
It’s about time!!!! After wasting millions of dollars over the years they finally pulled the plug on the oregano lay fiasco. Notice they never aknowledged this by way of a news releases. COWARDS!!!!
Anyone read the 300+ pages of the new PS? Kidding of course. I went to the cost of the project which is well above half a billion dollars. Am I wrong or do I remember the original PS estimate being around 440 mils? I know for a fact that the Co. repeated the assurance of "being fully funded" multiple times. Are we? Also they have not referenced phase 2 for almost two years. Is there still a phase 2 ? I'm not feeling very comfortable these days.
Ay thoughts?
Thanks Tiko I found your post very informative and somewhat reassuring in the future of the company. I don't worry about the progress of pond construction, after all the last ones don't need to be ready until after production starts and some ponds have been fully processed in actual lithium. I envision a system where some ponds are being processed in the plant, some have fully evaporated into raw element,some are partially evaporated and some are beginning to be filled. A rotation of all ponds will be determined by the ability of the plant production (2 to 3 years from start to finish?).
The key to success remains in the shifting timeline (I hope NO ADDITIONAL DELAYS) of the start of production start.
Toast... to be clear I'm guessing this John K is a PR guy and all he said should be taken with a grain (maybe a pound) of salt. In the interest of looking at reality I make the following points... ONE.... it makes zero sense to consider the current Lithium price relevant our SP now, after all producing Lithium at any reasonable price would be better than only producing fracking mud AT A LOSS!!! The FS projected good earnings at two price levels, $10,000 and $ 12,000 a ton.Currently reduced spot prices fall within those parameters. TWO.....institutional investors for the most part have NO IDEA who we are and most are limited by their charters from investing in PENNY STOCK. Make no mistake, but for the reverse split we're sitting at 60cents, THREE..... EBITA stands for EARNING BEFORE INTEREST TAXES and AMMORTIZATION. We have NO EARNINGS!!!! FOUR...."management stood by what they say"..... Aug 26 2016 "stage 1 productionin 2019"....Aug 14 2018 "stage one production in 2020".....Nov 14 2018 "no delay in production is anticipated"....Aug 13 2019 "by the end of 2020".....Sep 25 2019 "in early 2021" Need I say more? Full disclosure... I've been in this stock for the better part of 10/12 years and I'm hanging on for dear life. My concern is NOT the price of lithium but the real possibility that we run out of money before we sell the first pound of lithium. PAY ATTENTION to the third quarter report due out over the next couple of weeks and FOCUS ON the CASH BURN!!!
DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY TO 40000 TONS GOOD LOOOOOONG TERM NEWS. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT IS THE ADDITIONAL COST AND... THE PUSH BACK OF START UP DATE. MORE DEBT(COMPOUNDING) AND LONGER TIME UNTIL THE OPPORTUNITY TO REPAY IT. A DEADLY COMBINATION FOR PAST VENTURES!! LET US NOT FORGET THAT THE CORPORATION IS BURNING ABOUT 8 MILS PER QUARTER INDEPENDENT OF THE COST OF THE PROJECT. I VIEW THIS ANNOUNCEMENT AS MASKING BAD NEWS. THEY HAVE DONE THIS IN THE PAST. I REMEMBER THE STAT UP DATE BEING "2019" FOLLOWED BY "SECOND HALF 2019" THAN "FOURTH QUARTER 2019" THAN "EARLY 2020"... ETC...ETC...ETC
Two things, one NOW IO think I read somewhere that the report will be out on the 14th. Two.... Argentina news can't be a positive. In addition to the BAD GUYS (?) taking over, the Argentine currency lost 15 % against the dollar. I the currency world that's a tsunami of biblical proportions
Thanks Tiko, good information. I was somewhat puzzled by the forecast at the same point in the report for 25000 tons at full production of the plant especially given the mention of possible increased output to 40000 tons. How do they expect to handle this increase? Also, I always assumed they would build a plant capable of handling the second phase of the project thus eliminating the need of a second plant. Ho well what do I know!
Tiko about 29 ponds reference. Where did you get that? I can't seem to find any information about that.
Q1 report is out. One surprise Tom Hogdson is out. Good? Bad ? Indifferent?
Had it been announced prior to now? If not, why not?
All due respect but..... what part of the report could possibly be POSITIVE? Will hectatone LOSE less money than in the third qtr? Did they lay off 8 or 9 of the brothers-in-law to reduce payroll and cash burn? Did they claw back some of the options awards to look out for the poor shareholders? ALL we're going to get is more meaningless verbal masturbation!!! I's getting 50% out tomorrow and waiting to buy back in the 3's.
I'm with you all the way. My hope is a timely and on cost for Argentina phase 1 followed by easy financing for phase 2 (additional ponds BUT the SAME plant to process the evaporated brine. Call it 3/4 years form now. With positive results I can than see SP in the $10/$15 level. THAN..... I can see favorable financing for Nevada. Any effort to look for a billion dollars anytime soon will RAPE all of us and possibly lead to ZERO
Totally agree.The time frame omits entirely the need for a BILLION dollars of financing. Anyone with a billion can buy the company outright THREE TIMES OVER. Any financing deal at this point would throw existing investors (us) under the bus. I do see a value in Rig's post, point one. If Gangfeng really expedites the Argentina project to the point of actually achieving meaningful production by mid 2020 it would be very positive.
SP up again and... on good volume. I looked everywhere for news and can't find anything. HELP?
Thank you for the HYDROXIDE update. Actually I did noticed it on my own, I just thought at this time that information is irrelevant given the slim (none) possibility of raising a billion dollar to advance the Nevada project on the stated timeline. AS far as calling IR for information, I tried it before, and was always given the Company line. Over the years I found that to be a waist of time, I drank enough cool aid as a child!
Not an earning release, just a weak attempt at bolstering SP. As I stated earlier it might as well be the upcoming 4th Qtr results.... nothing to get excited about. I AM bothered that they omitted ANY mention of the plant, could it be that it's late to the party!!
NOW.... so when are you gonna report? I hope I'm wrong BUT they reported TODAY with their UPDATE!! Anyone seeing anything new in the UPDATE? NO same old crap.... just repeating what we have known forever! See anything on the PLANT? NO!! by now they should be showing ACTUAL pictures of the PLANT, not water pumping into a hole. (pumping seems appropriate here). Also following the PRE FEASABILTY STUDY we get a pre pilot plant = spending money we don't have to prove something that can't possibly happen over the next 5 years.
Ho well, it served it's purpose, KILLING the current rally! Noticed the action today?
Got it! I'll keep my fingers crossed for both of us !! And ALL of us of course
"Early to the party" is a relative time frame.I remember trading at these levels when the company was called Western Lithium (6/7 years ago) and when a PFS anticipated a 2016 Nevada lithium plant startup. Soon after the mud plant opened and was predicted to be be cash flow positive by the end of 2016 and here we are one bad news away from oblivion.
It would be nice if markets worked that simply, unfortunately they don't! So the answer must be elsewhere. While the overall decline in interest in lithium hurt the entire industry, two LAC specific developments were not received well by the market. ONE.... after being given 50% of a multi billion dollar property for a mere $25 mils. SQM bailed out after a year or so... WHY? TWO.... Gangfeng buys out SQM and in the process gives LAC a bigger piece of the pie for NO LOGICAL REASON. WHY? I don't know the answer but I'm assuming there are no well meaning Tooth Fairies at work here.I'm holding my breath, hoping and praying that construction is on time and on budget.
Sorry I might have been wrong on the quarter results date. It could be in March.
Q4 results should be out sometimes over the next 5/9 days. We need some catalyst (good news) to help SP, I just can't imagine what could pass for good news. Watch for continued bad results on mud profits (they will be additional losses) and continued excessive cash burn. I'm hoping for a positive update on Argentina progress!
XSV ... I totally agree with you! I'll go farther.. completing the first AND second phase in Argentina is the Company's ONLY option. We'll be at least 400 million dollars in debt before the first ounce of lithium is processed from phase one. Financing phase two will be less costly as the plant will be able to process both. Ponds and pumps will be needed foe two.
I made the point a few months ago that trying to finance nevada would be suicidal and likely impossible with the stock in the dumpster. It would be like getting a $800,000 thousand dollar second mortgage on a house worth $350.000 and under water on a $400,000 first mortgage. GOOD LUCK with that one.
The important date to keep in mind is the second half of 2020 (they already alluded as much ) and hopefully the plant will be ready to start production. Also, new operations always reveal snags ( shakedown cruise if you will ) My hope is that 2021 will produce actual lithium at close to the projected rate. I can't see SP anywhere near $8 until late 2019 at best.