Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Notwithstanding the fact that this is fairly easy to do, even with limited information provided for the update, it should have been done. At the same time, I am hopeful that the lack of update is indicative of a final update and coming asap and it is only because data scrubbing is taking a bit longer than expected....
Also of note, if it hasn't been posted already. ClinicalTrials.gov shows our phase 3 status as "unknown." Apparently,each company is supposed to update at least every two years, and NWBO has not. Lovely. "Unknown: A study on ClinicalTrials.gov whose last known status was recruiting; not yet recruiting; or active, not recruiting but that has passed its completion date, and the status has not been last verified within the past 2 years."
Bingo. Lots of ways to do it. And, for the record, I have no idea if there are or are not naked shorts. And, for what the short interest currently is, no idea. It is my opinion we have 8-10% (float) of legit short shares and some more naked by unscrupulous MM's. the ONLY way to be sure is to have a massive buy of the stock. 20 to 30 million shares in a day....then we will know. How do we get that day? Announce the results already.....
Could be a someone behind the MM with an account at their firm, but on OTC and BB stocks, sometimes these MM's trade for their own accounts as part of their strategy. For example, you can take risk and buy for yourself as a firm by making a market in a particular stock, and if you are correct, and you own 10,000 shares of stock at lets say $1, then it goes you to $3, you put it on the ask and make the spread as it sells for a $2/share profit. Same on the short side. That said, it is supposed to be regulated, and their should be a trail through monthly disclosures to NASD. But those are internal and visible only to the firm and the NASD. they are trading strategies so not publicly disclosed unless there are violations.
EX, I understand your side of the naked short theory. Here is mine. Having been a FinOp for a NASDAQ firm years ago, and having made markets in OTC stocks, i saw this game play out. Shorting and naked shorting is especially rampant is startups, and biotech startups are particularly easier given the small percentage who succeed. You sell short with stock and without stock delivered (naked). These stocks drop, reverse split, issue more shares, and drop again. the perfect result is BK, then you never have to deliver shares. Or, which is my opinion of where we are with NWBO, shorting and some naked shorting has taken place. And those market makers with the largest short positions, legal or naked, are sitting on the ask, offering more shares they don't own, waiting for failure of phase 3 or BK. The odds from their perspective are in their favor. they are ahead on the short position, maybe shorting all the way down from $12, so even offering more naked shares they have to cover, given the lack of transparency and current state of the company, it's a good bet for them. The only way to test this theory is to have a positive phase 3 announcement and $20 million worth of buying come into the stock. MM's will cover what they have to and get out of the way.
Agreed. I don't feel like I am part of the in-crowd, or in-the-know crowd in this case. We are approaching 5 months since ASCO. You can read LP's "coming weeks" comment any way you like, but I cannot sit here and say 5 months is coming weeks. Something has to be divulged and announced asap or we are going below .10 IMO.
Oh grreat, more radio silence....
Sad to say but I am hoping your sock and stair prognostication is correct. It appears to be equal in potential to Chris L signing off or SOS and his prediction.
Same here, over 200,000 shares for more than two years. I believe there are limited financing options due to LP. After what happened with Woodford, and the fact that she controls the vote and direction solely....no legit investor will touch this. This is due to her actions, IMO. then, the lack of transparency and updates (good or bad), leaves any potential partner or investor on the sidelines. Who would put money in after researching this for the last 6 months? There very well may have been opportunities and the take-it-or-leave-it LP offer is just not appetizing, IMO. We need the trial to stand on it's own, publicly.
To hear this contempt from you Flipper is disheartening, but understandable. Your analyses and insight are truly helpful and are some of the reasons I believe in the science. It is truly amazing we have heard nothing. Regardless of SEC, Phase V, all the other noise, it cannot prevent a company from updating the markets and it's shareholders. This is by choice of LP, period. Tells me one of two things. Scrubbing data and squeaking by financially for an update in the next few weeks (as some have surmised) or have no intention of unblinding (and won't tell us) and will drag this on with small, dilutive financings. If the latter is the case, I personally believe shareholder lawsuits will be the next company issue.
I believe they are between a rock and a hard place with financing. No legit investment house or fund would touch this given the delays and current financial situation. Unless, they were made privy to news we don’t have, which would be illegal. That leaves another band aid loan from LP. That said, another short term loan would tell me we are close to data. Even LP wouldn’t throw good money after bad. Another loan would tell me she will risk another $2 million to see the data. A larger loan would tell me they are locked, and scrubbing, and confident.
If there are truly naked shorts out there, with an effort to bury nwbo as some have speculated, those likely haven’t covered. Bulletin board shortens, naked shorters, never plan on covering, they wait for bk or dissolution. So, there MAY be some out there like that.
I certainly hope so!!!
Money switched from the bid to the ask, looks like they are trying to temper the rise as usual. IMO. Heavier volume will tell if they can keep it down this time.
Scotty, I am in the camp that believes there will be no more dilution until news, so I hope I am right.
Also, What is Dr. Q going to say at his presentation Friday at Mayo summit? He obviously isn't the company spokesperson and doesn't have the history with the company. So, I highly doubt there would be news ahead of his presentation as it would put him in an awkward position. Maybe his talk is step one, then next week a PR?
I believe that makes sense. ALthough, the volume would have to be dramatically higher in the tens of millions for days with short covering as well.
Let's hope so. It will take a lot of shares to get through to new highs. Meaning over .34, before we talk about dollars per share. IMO
Certainly looks like there is a bid to start the week. Unfortunately, without news (that several have touted as imminent), we will not see a move upward through the resistance levels. I hope SOS and Chris L are finally correct and we see the top line numbers.
looks like some late day buying trying to push the close past 20 cents.
We all know now that without unequivocal, positive data release, the stock will get hammered. It's too easy at this point for shorts given the history of the company (situation that LP created, BTW, IMO). Positive news with real data will create the 20+ million share day(s) to flush out shorts and break through to prices unseen in several years, whatever those may be.
Presentation next Friday at 2:30, State of the Art—Future Therapies for Glioblastoma Multiforme by Alfredo Quiñones-Hinojosa, M.D.
Anyone think he will discuss upcoming combo trial with NWBO or possible success of current phase 3?
I don't see how they can go that far out without money. I am hoping the next news isn't a financing announcement from LP again. That would tell me there is no news coming. I am in the camp that believes that they want to announce data lock and top line, which, if positive, would solve cash flow issues through warrants and options.
That post from Chris was from two years ago. Nothing but pure speculation on this board, IMO. No way to know anything until the company speaks.
If NWBO is truly planning to announce data lock and top line in November, wouldn't you start using your new PR firm to drip info leading up to it? Like now? After the debacle of ASCO in June with a mediocre journal article and theater presentation all crammed into a few days, I would think we get more traction and exposure with a true, professional, transparent PR plan and CLEAR news.
I am just tired of the delay without info game. New trial goal post moved to September 1st and it is now October 5th. Nothing, no update, no trial start. Wouldn't that be material? As a start up biotech, a big time partner trial, which may validate your proprietary products,and you PR nothing? Unacceptable. IMO.
The Nature article has a quote from Liau on the intriguing results of the phase 3 trial, then there is this line later in the article: "Buzz has been building around another personalized-vaccine effort that has shown hints of improved survival. The DCVax-L strategy from Northwest Biotherapeutics in Bethesda, Maryland, entails training dendritic cells with protein extracts derived from tumors. Researchers who are collaborating with the company on a phase III trial reported that 100 of the 331 people who were treated are still alive 40 months later.
Maybe it will take a few days to get circulated and get attention? Or, are we in a place where no matter what is said about NWBO, even if it is positive, no one will touch it until they release top line data??
yes, the bigger question. I have been guessing at valuation based on about 850 million fully diluted outstanding shares. It may be closer to 1 billion when all said and done, depending on warrants and further dilution. So, given recent acquisitions of lesser (IMO) potential companies, I am looking for a 10+ billion valuation/buyout or around $10/share. That would be prior to FDA approval, but after topline release of positive data. Unfortunately, we have zero idea when that will be. 4 months past ASCO, August is past. November seems to be the next goal post to be moved based on management's prior actions, or lack thereof. IMO.
agreed.
good math.
Oh, they did, which might be why the outstanding share count is over 500 million, it was listed at something like 350 million last week...
510 million may be outstanding prior to warrant exercise and conversion to common. As stated in an earlier post, warrants are not stock until exercised. So they remain on the books as issued, and as a liability, until warrant owner converts. Thus, the exposure is probably up to 1 billion common outstanding once all warrants are turned into stock. But, that fills the coffers with cash on most of them.
To me, with no news, and not a peep out of NWBO, this wreaks of dilution....IMO>
Stock just getting buried due to lack of communication from LP and LG. It is impossible that they don't have something to PR, IMO. Unless it is not good, which is what it appears the market believes due to PPS drop.
We are almost 4 months past ASCO 2018. Lots of speculation, but NO NEWS from NWBO. Very frustrating.
I don't believe you do this for no reason, makes no sense if there is no real need. However, specifically no need for a reverse split as those are adjusted accordingly with no added effort. This is an added effort for another purpose. Buyout is one potential reason. Imo. Where is the 10q? Should have been out or an extension filed? Maybe speaks to something coming in that?
New Combo trial start date still September 1, 2018, still not recruiting.
August has passed, no news.
A Bosch presentation that told us nothing new.
No new financing, but they are broke?
No idea on NICE application?
More than Three months past ASCO...."coming weeks" Months?
Where is the accountability for this management?
I believe a valuation of 3-5 billion on positive top line results is reasonable given historical valuations of similar biotechs. I would expect a higher valuation on a buyout. In the meantime I am of the camp that believes August is data gathering of 36 month post enrollment combined with 2018 spring refresh and will bring topline and lock announcement within the next two weeks. Then November will bring full release of unblinded data. That said, stock and warrants combined, I would expect a $2 billion valuation on initial positive release, or about $2.50 per share.
That is my thought exactly. There have to be a couple of nuggets of new information tonight or we will get pummeled tomorrow, IMO.
Why would Bosch speak if there is nothing new to say? They saw what happened in June after a lackluster response to year-old, blinded, blended data. Stock got whacked. Could he discuss refresh numbers and a "hopeful" time line for releasing top line data? data lock? Partnership? new trial starting next week?