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Bigger stones will be thrown in the pond
And bigger ripples will be felt. (see the post that this is in response to, and the date of the original post)
3rd quarter earnings season is nearly upon us and the effects of the subprime meltdown will show up on paper, in black and white, for everyone to see. The reach of the events which have occurred over the last 3 months will surprise many. The US markets will not be as attractive to foreign investors as it was when the housing and credit markets enjoyed some stability. Yearly estimates will be revised lower to reflect the past set-backs and future hurdles, and we may even see some big names falter completely. Like I said, bigger stones.
This will not happen tomorrow in all probability, but soon. I am preparing today with various hedging strategies which will be implemented at the right time. Not right now, but the plans are in place to take action when the opportunity arrises. May I suggest that we all do the same without sounding too much like a doomsayer?
Some strategies to consider, while still maintaining some long positions, may be:
shorting stocks
buying inverse index funds like: DXD, SDS, and QID
buying puts or selling calls on your positions which offer an option chain
moving to currency
A market will always be there, but it is not up to us to determine its direction- only how we will use the current information available to profit from the next expected move, or at least save us the losses which come from being wrong.
researcher59 - the IBD
They get pretty uptight if someone posts their "proprietary" information for public use. I'd rather avoid the attention that they might give me if I start posting their lists. I hope you understand.
IBD 100 - first week in Jan 07
Ari,
Don't ask me what 100 stocks are on the list, and don't rely on the absolute accuracy of the information, but the IBD 100 for the first week of January, if approximately $200 was invested in each stock, would have appreciated 6.3% as of Friday's close. There may be a slight difference to the actual gain due to rounding, but the percent change is fairly accurate. The answer to your question, is "no, the IBD is not up 32% if you only took the 100 stocks on the first week of January." But, honestly, I don't think that statistic is a good measure of the IBD's value to the investor.
some notables:
DIGE was absorbed by Qiagen, a Dutch company
ACH +177%
BTJ +103%
PCLN +103%
AXR -76%
VOL -64%
GROW -63%
HRT -54%
Thank you! It very nice of you to do that. I've always appreciated the work that goes into this contest. Sorry I missed the deadline.
I know that I cannot participate in the actual contest, but I was wondering if my PSL6 picks were going to be tracked along with the real contest- such as they were for others in previous contests? It's no big deal if that's a negative; I was just wondering.
I was unable to post my 6 stocks for the contest on time, but here they are just for shits and giggles:
GMXR
KLIC
MWRK
NGS
RICK
SMSI
ari5000 - natural gas
I like an entry at these prices.
LNG market should expand with technology improvements in public transportation using alternative fuels. China is expected to display their LNG-burning busses for the Olympics. I just read an article in WSJ regarding China building a large LNG terminal on their coastline. Seems that some majors are making large moves into this market. I have even heard that some UPS trucks here in the States run on NG or LNG, but I've never seen one. Expansion of the number of filling stations seems like it will be the major impetus to the future of this energy play. NG prices are predicted to be back in the 7's by year-end.
If you are strictly looking for pure-play NG stocks/ETFs, then keep in mind that organically growing NG companies will trade at higher valuations than those growing through acquisitions.
What specific NG companies are you interested in? I've been keeping an eye on EOG, myself.
I also like some of the smaller cap plays. I currently own SYNL, which is one of a few international LNG piping suppliers, and it currently trades at a substantial discount to just about every metric.
SYNL - getting ridiculously cheap
I'm surprised at the discount being offered for SYNL shares currently. I would tell my grandmother to buy shares here if she was living.
I bought some shares at $26.50 last week and then some more, today, at $23.85. I have another order to buy at a lower price.
Any theories why the price has been beaten down so much? Short interest is 25% of the small float.
SYNL - getting cheap
I've decided to re-establish a position in SYNL. I bot my first lot at $26.50.
I have owned this before... from $17ish to $40, and I think I can get another double from my current entry price. When that will happen is another question. The time it takes won't matter much. The new laws which basically force matress makers to use SYNL fire-retardant products in the manufacturing process should be a nice boost to revenues. And actually, make the company a decent buyout prospect by some of the mattress makers like ZZ and TPX or even SHLD who has been expanding their mattress product line.
The "numbers" look appealing at these prices
NGA - IRS issues
I saw that there were some buyers who quickly sold after the release of the repayments of bonds to satisfy section 130 of the Internal Revenue Code. Now, maybe the release came at a bad time, on a shortened trading day, during a seemingly weak market, and after an extensive decline in the stock's pps, but the news release did not change anything about the company itself. The repayment of the bond was done because NGA must have been declaring a tax exemption on the bond interest for the development zone
see this link for more information on the code: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-wd/9926004.pdf
and this link for the news release: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070703/nga8-k.html
This looks to be a one time charge, if anything. No material effect on future operations should occur, IMO. I'm not sure where the fear came into play. NGA is benefitting twofold in the current environment: being able to pass on the increasing zinc costs, and government sponsored development and refurbishing of the electrical infrastructure.
However, I do understand that a 3% or 5% realized loss is easier to swallow than sitting on a position that could be down much more than that.
I think NGA is sorely undervalued at the current pps of just under $8. I think that there is a strong possibility of the stock regaining a top 10 listing in IBD.
best of luck
NGA - discount or harbinger
I'm wondering whether the recent price action in NGA is offering investors a bargain discount here, or whether this is an indication of further price declines. Technically speaking, there is a gap to fill, but who knows whether it will ever occur. It (the gap) is on the minds of everyone that looks at the chart, so maybe it should be considered.
This has been a nice little growth company over the past few years and could continue. The numbers on it make me think that if it can trade over $15, then the chances of a top ten listing on the IBD 100 are pretty good. That's at least a double from the current price, though.
I would appreciate any comments that can be offered.
I'm wondering whether my trade went through yesterday? I don't see it in the IBox
Please confirm the prices and number of shares. Thank you very much for holding this fine contest
I take great satisfaction that I am the least sheepish. I'm not sure why- it must just be my personality. In any case, I've always thought that opposing or alternative viewpoints are sometimes the most valuable because they can either reaffirm your own conclusions or at least make you rethink your initial assumptions. So, thanks folks, er, I mean, sheep! May your sunny days in the green pasture make you forget the ultimate fate which we all must face. :)
Wade - HSOA
I was one of the doubters of your position in HSOA. I am happy to congratulate you on a fine demonstration of sticking to your guns and not flip-flopping like a presidential candidate. I hope that you have been adding to your position when it looked bleak, and I hope you won't be too stubborn to trim when it all looks rosy.
Congrats!
Thanks, Len
That is pretty disturbing. TDAmeritrade takes responsibility for hacks and other security violations as long as you, the user, has done all that you could do to reasonably prevent the occurance from happening.
Another thing that TDAmeritrade does is that you must place limit orders on OTCBB stocks- no market orders
R59 - SYNL
Yes, I guess I'm trying to time the top a little, but I've been in this for a while, and it really seems to be overextending itself on no news other than recent earnings. Current action is probably speculation coming in for future earnings, but it will die down as interest fades. Maybe I was early to bail, but I'm still smiling. :)
SYNL - closed
OK, I'm all done with this. It's been a great ride!
SYNL - IBD 100
Was there ever any doubt?
Quick, hurry up and bury this message.
R59 - IBD main page
I was under the impression that the main page was updated at the beginning of each month. If SYNL isn't on it now, I'm not sure if that means it also won't be on Friday. IBD bases so much of their data from Friday's close on their stocks. Friday was still in March, so that MIGHT have something to do with it. Wish I could help some more.
SYNL matches many of the criteria that I know of.
SYNL - IBD 100
It should make it this weekend. Not sure on the exact ranking, but all the parts add up.
Let's see how fast this post will be buried
Lentinman - TA
We both agree, then, that calling market tops and bottoms is next to impossible. I will go on to add that anyone who does it successfully must rely on something more than statistical valuations or interpretations from charts; they need luck, and there is no way to capture that in a bottle, so to speak.
Regarding overbought and oversold- yes, this is a good tool. But like all TA tools, it is not perfect. I can think of several cases of a stock indicating whether it was oversold or overbought and the price did seem to be extended in either direction. Funny thing, though, it did not stop the price from becoming even more extended. (a recent example which was discussed on this board is OFI) The parameters for determining overbought and oversold can be, and should be, different for every stock. No two companies have the same share structure or investor interest. Why put them on equal playing fields when it comes to the parameters used that determine overbought and oversold?
The support and resistance comment I was making was in reference to my stategy to capture or cut short any gains or losses which may occur beyond that which my fundamental analysis determines. ie. if my FA target is 20 and the stock gets there and looks to go higher, I will set a stop at my FA target and move that stop higher as certain price levels are acheived or tested beyond the $20 target. A recent example of this was HMSY which I successfully traded from 17 to 21.50. My initial target was only 10%, or $18.70. But, the stock wanted to go higher according to some TA that I look at, so when 18.70 hit, I set my stop and watched as HMSY went to 21.50, retraced a little and created a small step of support at $20.70, but then took out the resistance at $21.50. Guess where I re-set my stop? $21.50 Essentially, I got an extra $2.80 per share from this strategy- a very nice return for some simple support TA. I also note that on the same HMSY chart, the 7-day RSI indicated an overbought condition (according to other folks >90) on Feb 12, the price was about $21.00. Soon thereafter, it went to $23.00
I don't want to sound like I'm trying to argue with you, Len, or to disprove or discredit your statements. I'm sharing what works FOR ME. I know that you are very good at this, and everyone here can learn from all that information swimming around in that mellon above your neck. Just letting you know that there are different ways to skin a cat.
Kipp - TA on the indices
First, let me just tell you that I am primarily a fundamental value type of investor. However, it is foolish to think that TA does not have its merits. Many people use it and profit from it, so ignoring the possiblities that TA presents, might mean that unexpected gains can be realized or potential losses stopped before they get out of control.
The problem is finding the one system and the one interpretation of that system that works best for the individual investor. What makes sense to one person, is meaningless to another.
Trying to interpret current market conditions and then extrapolating your analysis to form a view on the condition of the economy assumes that the 2 are in synchronious harmony- but that is not the case. The Market Cycle can be anywhere from 3 to 9 months ahead of the Economic Cycle. Market tops are historically associated with certain sector strength or weakness, and normally come at times when the majority of the sentiment is bullish. To find this in a chart has been tried by so many different professionals and gurus that the resulting theory is that there is no way to accurately predict such things.
I suggest that you personally work on driving a wedge between TA on the indices and your personal views on the condition of the economy. There is no connection in life, and should, therefore, have no connection in your portfolio.
TA may be best used by the quick traders looking to capitalize on the minor fluctuations in the market. TA can show you certain things that suggest whether a stock or index is over-extended and due for a pullback to levels of support; or finding support and ready to head higher. So TA should be used FOR ONLY THAT- finding a price pivot point and then the resulting target. If you stick to this structure of trading, rather than investing, then TA will be your only guide, as fundamentals are meaningless at that point. You would only be using fundamentals to give you a general bias on the health of the company or index.
Just be careful about calling index moves longer than a week's time-frame... everyone tries, and normally fails.
R59 Canadien Gas
It's not easy to give good calculations on the decline. From some presentations that I've seen, the production rate can decline as rapidly as 66% to 40% from tap to stabilization. So some wells that are tapped at 2 MCF, may only be producing 1.1 to .75 MCF in as little as 5 Months. The time-frame normally depends on the volumetric size of the tapped reserve, and the area of the country or type of producing formation (ie shale, sands, etc).
We may not begin to see this effect until late summer / early autumn. But it will be confirmed when pure-play Canadien Nat Gas co.'s begin to report lower production from their comparable operations quarter to quarter.
10% YOY declines in autumn is not crazy
R59 - Nat. Gas
Halliburton just announced decreased future revs due to lower activity in Canada. Wells are at their most productive when first drilled. The decline in imported nat gas 3-4 months from now should be dramatic, and sustained due to the decreased drilling activity.
I'm just putting 2 and 2 together- hopefully it is right.
What's the deal on El Nino? Are we going to have a bunch of hurricanes, or what?
So you like Nickel
I'm not sure if you, the reader of this message, knows how some of my past picks have panned out, but I'll preface this message with a simple statement: I'm not an idiot! :)
Quite a few VMC posters have been expressing an interest in Nickle activity, lately, and how to capture some nice gains from the expected moves in Nickel pricing based on demand/supply dynamics.
I have been steadily expanding my position in a company which deals heavily in Nickel. So far, it has been a very good investment for me. I look forward to future years of being an investor with this firm. I have lofty targets (which I don't plan to share). Risky alternatives were eliminated before choosing AM Castle Co. http://www.amcastle.com/ as my choice to capitalize on positive Nickel market movement.
The ticker is CAS. Good Luck!
Gold Stocks, now?
This little guy seems interesting...
Richmont Mines, RIC
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ric
Wade,
What country has the biggest economy on Earth? Who's drum-beat do you think that the rest of the world's economies march to? Who does anyone turn to that needs to save their butt in a financial crunch? If ANYONE stands to lose the most, it's the US- but compare our markets to everyone elses, and you'll understand the answer to your question. USA is #1, Wade. I'm not sure if your question was rhetorical, or not, but that's the answer.
(We're this way with alot of help from our northern neighbors, I might add)
Gigamedia - GIGM
They reported some very nice results today, and the CEO seems excited about the future and increasing shareholder value
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070313/hktu003.html?.v=47
We know about China, but what about Taiwan?
This is no micro-cap, but I thought that there might be a few interested people here.
researcher59 - IBD 100 requirements
I'm not familiar with 100% of the protocall, just some basics. Both the volume and the main page requirements were gotten from third party info which I have no reason to doubt. I think what is meant by the "main page" is the Nasdaq main page in the IBD newspaper.
I no longer subscribe, so I don't know whether things have changed in the last year or so
Marvelmeister - SYNL
In order for the stock to make the 100 list, it has to be listed on the Nasdaq main board AND have 20K avg volume. And it needs these 2 stipulations to be true for at least 1 month, because that is when the main boards are updated. Do not expect SYNL on IBD 100 until April if it keeps up the RSI
Sub-prime lending market
If the whole world markets and economies go down, then the USA as a whole becomes the biggest sub-prime lender. That would make the US earnings, as a whole, less attractive, and P/E levels will drop to what is perceived today as "cheap" but consider the loans that we make... those P/E's might not be considered "cheap" anymore... more like "par"
The sub-prime lending market will have a rippling effect on financial institutions- the recent action was just the first stone hitting the middle of the pond
quote / bid / ask / price problems
They continue into this morning's trading. I don't have a news link, just reporting what I am witnessing watching the QQQQ and QID
Great play on the QID, Wade- and at a great time on Tuesday!
Marvel, SYNL:
Good Sector, good company, good prospects, good fundies, good chart, even good management... what's not to like? IF it makes it on IBD (good luck) you should be rewarded handsomely. The only problem I could possibly see would be a wide spread bear raid on the steel sector. I don't think that would be good for SYNL.
Rogue - intraday charts
MarketWatch offers BigCharts, but I don't know about Canadian issues, and I am sure the data is delayed at least 20 minutes. Here's a link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=&time=&freq=
MSGI,
I think you should look at my portfolio and then my position in the contest. You may actually like my picks.
I think these low float, one trade wonders are a joke, but if people make money from them, and win contests with them, then it just goes to show you that ANYTHING is possible.
What I think those who are against these low volume stocks are trying to say, is that it is dangerous. Dangerous because of the human condition. We are all competitive beasts, trying to leave the biggest mark on our own little micro-societies that we can. Since all of us are using VMC and PSL as a part of our micro-societies, we are in some way joined in both camaraderie and competition. The competitive spirit is that which will drive our decisions. The problem then becomes: the moral and financial sacrifices which some may make in order to simply win a game- does this give us true results of our conglomerated stock-picking ability, or does it just provide liquidity to otherwise stale issues which can be manipulated with relative ease?
Anyone who assumes that their personal wealth could and should be based on PSL is fooling themselves. I think THAT is the true failure here, not that people may or may not manipulate a stock (that happens all the time), but that the top results of the contestents come from stocks which few investors (as evidenced by previous volume) would ever consider. That being the case, it drives more people to try to find similar stocks of previous winners in order to copy previous results- it's the old, "what worked then, should work now" mentality. In other words, by producing huge winners on low volume, people are inadvertently perpetuating the poor decisions of other contestents to look for similar companies, or worse, the same ones in real life. In a word: DANGEROUS!
I'll look forward to your future stock picks, MSGI, as you and I seem to be on the same wavelength regarding the type of companies to "invest" in.
Len, SSKILLZ1, others, I like the CONTEST, but some of the picks here are outrageous!
MSGI -
Are these the average scores of the 9 contestents on each side of the sheep spectrum? If so, thanks.
scorekeepers:
I thought of a new stat that may or may not be interesting to you or the rest of the contestents.
The 5 Most Sheepish (or Mr Sheep)
vs
The 5 Least Sheepish (or Mr. Black Sheep)
re-visiting MERIX Corp.
MERX- Anyone look at this recently? A board search showed that a few VMCers thought it looked OK last year, but I guess that was prior to the huge drop-off the edge of a cliff at $14 back in Sept 06.
Anyway, $9 has been fairly stable and the company seems pretty cheap now, and they actually give guidance of over 100% EPS growth for 2007, unless I'm reading things incorrectly.
Watchaa-think?
Thanks Len, but I closed OFI and doubled down on IHR yesterday at the close, so there is new information for me
SSKILLZ1
So that I can continue to track my PSL6 port in Yahoo, could you please let me know how many shares of IHR and the average price, or however you are tracking... thanks!