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After reviewing the data and listening to the call AH I’m confused regarding the slide (no one who understands this disease state believed 70+% ORR was possible in the heavily pre-treated population). Personally I think today institutional investors increased their ownership % a nice bit by giving the retail peons a little shake. The numbers don’t lie- Pozi actually continues to prove it’s the real deal and will become SOC. BTD will happen in Q4. I am surprised JT didn’t have a bigger presence on today’s call...after all...investors watched 22% of their investment wiped out (disappointing but). My musings:
- Stock gets back at least half of it’s loss tomorrow
- JT rushes to announce BTD submission ASAP (at or before Q3 financials)
- SPPI settles in the 23-25 range (possibly higher depending on what’s released/announced)
- Pozi is sold off for cash or BO happens and in-line brands plus Rolo are spun off sooner rather than later
Yahoo message board is pure entertainment. Do these ppl really believe the stuff they put out there?
That speculation (which I agree it is just that- speculation/rumor) came from a current employee. I always assumed the potential buyers would be Amgen, D/S or a Merck/Eli Lilly and never considered Roche.
I believe they are courting potential buyers (why would they not be) and this news only strengthens their negotiating position. My gut tells me this story ran prior to tomorrow’s data presentation...I believe superiority could happen. $50 would be steal of the century...after Rolontis BLA and with additional Pozio data (so let’s call it Q4) no way it sells below $70.
Thoughts/opinions that the potential suitor is Roche and the target price is $50? That’s what I’ve heard...
Happy New Year all! Question for everyone- has anyone seen where Dr Raj dumped a bunch of stock? I saw someone say it on the Yahoo board (which candidly is NOT a place I put much faith in...and by that I mean zero faith). I ask because SPPI has been under a blackout since Dec 21 or 22nd.
I’m with you on the waiting game. If I had to put a mark on the wall for being out, my hope is by Q4 2018- Q1 2019.
Exactly...until there is concrete data or FDA response we should be cautious of (or not even worry about) those “randomly up 5% on lower than average volume” days in my humble opinion.
As for if Dr Raj has a moral or ethical compass when it comes to his statements to investors/the street- his track record speaks for itself. Pozi is making him look like he created this momentum but make no mistake of it- SPPI will flourish IN SPITE of Raj NOT because of him. Like Ville, I have a long memory of many of his antics.
I’m pleasantly surprised with the Q3 earnings PR and call thus far! Really expected a disappointment even though I remained, as my name says, Bullish on SPPI for the long run.
I see earnings in the 32-33 range. Evomela might grow slightly in market share but there is too much price competition in that arena to show much Q over Q growth (or any growth for that matter) at this point. All other 5 products face different challenges but nonetheless challenges. They aren’t growth products and flat sales would be a win at this point. I say they collectively decline Q vs. last Q.
All that said, the current valuation is based more on what’s ahead than what was sold in Q3. I do expect a pullback of 5-10% post call unless a pipeline update allows investors to gloss over the current earnings. Like Ville said...whatever happens is temporary as we know its headed north of 25-30 sooner rather than later.
Quick question- with everything being so positive as of late with updates and investor overage, how will a below street expectations earnings call impact the stock price?
My gut says minimal but I do think it gives back some gains UNLESS any new data or updates are released on the call.
I say 5-10% pullback
I expect (or maybe hope is the better word) HER 2 data in conjunction with the earnings call. But it’s probably being too bullish. 100% I think it hits the wire in Q4.
Honestly once these 3 things happen I think we breach $30...and I’m thinking it’s between now and April 2018:
1. MD Anderson gives additional updates on its trial (with Spectrum hopefully having some initial P2 top line data as well).
2. Top line readouts for Spectrum’s Rolontis trial.
3. FDA approves a fast track pathway for Pozi.
Reading this I amend my prediction- if all these things happen it’s $40 ??
That conference call was excellent! Its rare to hear that kind of data AND excitement from the investor questions- all ended with “congrats”
Nice! Today should be fun...I think I’ll sell 1.5-2k shares but I want this ride to continue!
ORR 73%!!!
My apologies- presentation is at 8:10PM EST...I inadvertently said 6 previously
I’m confused...you aren’t excited about the presentation and hitting an all time high? What am I missing here. My thoughts are that if we breach 20 all of the sudden 25/30/35/40 and a possible buyout are on the horizon.
I’m like a kid waiting on Christmas! I think we are about to see 20/share in the morning!
Sidebar question (and I hope it’s not rude/unprofessional). How big of a stake do the regular posters on here have?
Less than 1000 shares
1000-5000
5000-10000
10000 plus
I’m just north of 15k myself
T-minus 20 or so hours until the presentation. 6:10pm (EST) Tuesday night by my calculations.
So you believe the presentation at World Lung will fall flat? Also you are correct Raj is greedy but maybe they thought the price jump reflected the presentation thats coming up so it was already baked in if you will. I’m still bullish but maybe its more I’m just hopeful the 5 yr ride I’ve been with this stock will finally pay off?
Here's a question that I can't answer and would love to hear insights on:
When you consider the 2 latest moves (ATM cash raise and convertible debt) that occurred after the positive PR, but before the World Lung, why??? I can't make sense of it? Dilute the share price because you know it's going to skyrocket after the 18th OR is Raj tapping his investor piggybank one last time knowing if the 18th goes bad his only hope is to have enough cash on hand to get Rolontis to market?
Everyone here seems way smarter than me...what's some takeaways?
Thanks in advance for your insights and allowing me to be a part of this board!
I honestly don't see how the presentation won't be a grand slam home run. I respect the $18.12 if it's compelling but think it will be much higher ever. 20-25 based on MD Anderson's data and potential of it being a billion dollar market. Upon approval which I think happens before Rolontis in first half of 2018 we are talking 40 and up. Look at Puma...hit 80 at launch! Ville- I respect your take...am I crazy?