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Shorts last hurrah!
They are just testing the waters to see how much more they can mop up from the 98lb weaklings.
Look at the volume, they are selling to themselves!
We close green today!
There is usually no activity of Nwbo shares on the German bourse but this morning there was some activity...albeit a meagre 4250 units but at a price of €0.264 ($0.32) equivalent to a rise of 15% (€0.229) over Friday's close....an indication of today's price action? One can only hope!
GLTALs
Shakeout of Traders.
Good news into bad.
How can the retirement by a creditor of its AP via shares be bad? On TOP of that, it is being placed in the hands of a friendly party and wont be put on the market anytime soon.
Go figure! Short opportunists at work.....all at their own peril!
It's ready for another run. GLTALs
Here we go again, round and round the mulberry bush!
R/S, crooked Linda enriching herself and her cronies via dilutions and issuing shares at low prices, failed trial, concealing failed results, milking the company for her monthly salary....and the beat goes on!
We are at the stage where Nwbo's price is 8K driven, not 10Q. This latest 10Q is a rear view snapshot of the company as at 30 September. The current price is being driven by anticipation of impending news. If the shorts think they can drive the price down because of this latest 10Q, they are doing it at their own peril...because the drop will be temporary.....if true longs think the company's management is engaged in nefarious or underhanded activities, the OTC is a means by which you can exit your investment and salvage whatever remains of your initial investment or if you are in the money good for you, you can still exit when the market opens.
Now for the investors or "the jury is still out" people, my main takeaway on the latest 10Q is this, if you were a subcontractor and was owed millions by an R&D company (essentially boom or bust type profile), you would have an idea of how your client is doing and if you accept your debtor's stock, does that not indicate you have confidence that your client would succeed and that the stock is worth something? People tend to forget or ignore the fact that a company is a LEGAL ENTITY and even if you have common shareholders, the officers of Cognate would have to act in ITS best interest. If a conflict of interest issue arise, they have to abstain. Similarly, on the Nwbo side, in major decisions involving companies where one has an interest, they would have to abstain. Basic corporate law 101.
As shareholders, we are only interested in ONE THING......Is the trial successful or not?
Othe main concerns would be :
Can the company keep the lights on while we are waiting for the result?
Is management handling any crisis effectively without jeopardising the completion of the trial or not?
I believe the management is already doing all that effectively!
Monday morning quarterbacks and armchair generals....dime a dozen. The "coulda and shoulda" crowd, please put that in your memoirs.
So, if we open down, good luck to the shorties and to the true longs who sold, I wish you well and sorry for your losses and well done for those that bought in the teens and are baling out. Your agonising wait is over!
For the rest of us, well the science and the hope for a positive result is still there and that frankly, keeps me warm wth my investment on cold days when the company's pps gets thrashed or trash talked!
Before reply in your usual spin fashion, please follow the link to the actual site, read the differences and then comment. Like you spun the Nasdaq migration.
To assist:
NWBO Northwest Biotherapeutics has a new DCVAX trademark which was registered today, 11/14/2017. Serial No. 86298423, Registration No. 5332321:
http://tsdr.uspto.gov/documentviewer?caseId=sn86298423&docId=ORC20171029110505#docIndex=0&page=1
Curiouser and curiouser..... Applied on 9 August 2017, Gazzette notice 29 August and certificate issued 14 November.
So, they knew something back then and confidently started the trademark registration process in anticipation of marketing DC Vax....having to work by "candle light" as they diverted the " keep the lights on money", foregoing their "junket" to London (as some may put it) ... to pay for trademark legal and registration fees....LOL!
Your management has been busy putting your shareholders dollars at work!
GLTALs
Thanks ATL for your great finds!
The new trademark find is very positive. From my experience, a new Trademark registration is done only when you have something positive to market and to give it a new market profile and better product recognition.
However, knowing the spinmeisters here, the new trademark registration is so that we longs can easily identify the company when it goes into Chapter 11!
Lastly, I believe the migration from Nasdaq was for the fact that it was below $1 and they had to have an average 30 day price above $1! Our fearless leader Linda Powers....refused to do an R/S......so the alternative was the OTC.
The finishing line is in sight and longs.... stay the course and it will be ????happy days are here again????
Highway,
Nail on the head! ??
It’s against HIS shateholders’ interest to highlight an ANONYMOUS REPORT and later suits based on it failed.
The report had been out for almost a month without any adverse reaction by the market or to the pps but the moment he drew attention to it (thus giving credence to it) the price started its downward spiral.... and by doing that he was looking after HIS shareholders?
The chronology of this historical pps chart against the appearance of the report and his “mentioning” it has been posted here many times.
Completely agree with the sentiments of your post.
Linda, Les and the other lower profile people that make up Nwbo management team are one tenacious group of people! Against all odds and operating in a very hostile industry sector, they are bringing the trial not only to fruition but I strongly believe, a successful one!
The reason we are "not there yet" or have "missed fake and self proclaimed deadlines", it's because patients are living longer. Inconvenient for some who are on their own "deadline" to make their investment payoff but hey, it's great for those patients who are fighting for their lives just to live one or two or six months longer.
Patients are "Stayin' Alive" but the Nwbo management are saying to AF, BP and perhaps NW (my pet theory that he did not do Nwbo any favours by giving credence to the Phase V report).........
Bio,
Your points are noted with thanks. Have a great weekend!
Looking4aprofit
There should be a way to eliminate the constant "rinse and repeat " cycle of FUD on Nwbo. Every few months we have to rebut the same points and we should also report slander on the alleged fraudulent behaviour of nwbo's management to them.
May I suggest a Directory of FUD (everyone can contribute some FUD levelled at Nwbo to complete this compendium of FUD) ) and have a Stickie (like Flipper's Calendar of events) and any newbie can just be referred to the Stickie (when they ask seemingly "innocent" and "legitimate" questions). The heading can be Asked and Answered. So when they bring it up again...we don't waste our time answering. If Shorties bring it up again further down the road in the "Spin Cycle", we just post, please refer to the Stickie #25!
Potential investors in a company usually do their DD on the financials and other mainstream reports first and then come to MBs to try to gauge "ground level" murmurings...it does not help when they read the FUD and then we have to go through the same rehash, defence and rebut. Sifting through the posts may just "turn off" their appetite for the company and we lose the investor.
A compedium of "Asked and Answered" Stickie would be extremely useful for newbies and any rehash of old FUD.
Today's price action is reflecting the market's expectation of a capital raise....surprise surprise, we "never" expected it.
The stock is priced as a "failed" trial, so, what has anyone who has held from the "dollars" range got to lose? Are they trying to salvage 17cents out of their investment? Being this close to the publication of results? Not likely but there are some investors who think that way....you are not for the bio sector.
Then, there are those who may have bought in the teens or twenties or thirties etc and rode it all the way to the current price "doldrums". They bought in the hope for "any day now" the results would be announced reason....sadly, the patients lived longer and the article that was "prepared over summer" is taking too long to be published...so maybe they want to bail out now. No nerves, the bio sector is not for you.
Now there are those who try to convince us that the market (aka Wall St) behaves rationally and that there are no dark pools, no naked short selling, price manipulation or bad hombres out there and the price of the stock is what it is and reflects its true value....ok, then you also want us to believe that the world is flat and rests on the back of a turtle. Does the current price reflect that of a company expecting a Phase 3 Trial result? So, who is bailing out now and causing the weakness in the price? Why not sell it down to zero now? Why stop at 16cents? No forces at play here?
With regard to the trial result, we longs have made rational arguments that the results will be positive given the "glimpses, hints and connecting the unnumbered dots" but without conclusive news or PRs, the arguments make it vulnerable to attacks. Management is NOT obligated to give us a day by day accounting of their decisions because there are bad hombres out there who distort their good news and morph it into something bad...they only issue 8Ks, no ifs no buts, no embellishments to be distorted or interpreted to be pumping, so their stance is "no thanks but I'll keep it close to my chest and let the final trial results speak for itself". Their hint "bear with me and there will be a few surprises...." or something to that effect by Bosch. Perhaps even more pointed...read Bohsie or SOS!
I'd just like to say, i believe in the science and we longs may differ on our views on the quality and competence of the management but whatever, I'm in till the fat lady sings. Investment rationale... 17 cents to zero, is nothing compared to da moon Alice! Just love the risk/reward ratio!
AIMHO
HUGE SELL OFF????
Two institutions sold a total of 95,717 shares (20,000 & 75,717) it caused this morning weakness in the price???
Ok, heaven us!
GLTALs
Algo,
Greatly appreciate your observations, charts and comments.
My thoughts on why NWBO and Cofer Black have been awfully silent on the matter is that they and perhaps the regulators, may be on the sidelines watching and gathering indictable evidence. It took 7 years before the Dendreon case could be unravelled as per Deep Capture.
Too much going on behind the curtains, be that as it may, there is a season for sowing and there is a season for reaping.....the harvest is upon us...GLTALs!
Spot on Afford!
Again good news being morphed into bad. Refi with cashflow, Highstreet banks can do the math better than those who don't know better. Linda & Les know that with some rental income, they may not need to resort to toxic financing at least for the short term. Maybe the next 8k announces a refi with a payment moratorium till when the rent start to roll in, as I said, it's a matter of packaging and the terms.
Deals are made everyday and giving Linda credit, she is one tenacious lady, she and Les will surely try to cut such a deal! Maybe more dilution to keep the lights on, acceptable, we are just too close to the finish line not to want to swallow some "bitter herbs" with the bread.
However, with approval, any financing terms will dramatically increase for the better and not counting the very real possibility of a partnership. Linda did a bit of "posturing" with her "go big or go home", the reality is this, Nwbo can't go it alone if they want to realise the full potential of its platform. The management knows this, I therefore speculate that within months of announcing positive topline (before FDA approvals) we may be in the enviable position of evaluating different "marriage proposals"!
Full confidence in the management....the happy problem is....patients are living longer!
Last reply......and it's not because of my daily limit!
Do you understand how banks evaluate loans and a borrower's ability to service the loan?
Borrower with no cashflow as compared to a company that has CASHFLOW?
Do you also understand what non performing loans are and why a bank would hang up on them? Why would a bank NOT lend to someone with assets without cashflow but lend someone else with lesser value assets but have a healthy cashflow?
Do you know what straight out mortgages are as opposed to loans against properties when the borrower does not have any servicing capability?
Why a company like Nwbo has to accept the "bitter" terms on the property? The previous "loans" they took out used the property as security....the loan, should Nwbo go down that route, will be collateral to a bank. A financial institution is not in the property business but is in the business of LENDING, therefore, if Nwbo can service any property loans via its rental payments, their borrowing option becomes that much easier and be more mainstream garden variety type borrowing, not the toxic ones of late. Servicing means it's a performing loan with monthly installments!
Hellooooo? Key to thiis is...... yup....no prizes but you got it! CASHFLOW!
So, please, ask your "altruistic" pal Jerry about these financial matters and how this rental income has impacted Nwbo's ability to obtain loans. Prior to this ZERO CASH INFLOW. AFTER THIS AGREEMENT, $100k PER MONTH....WHICH PART OF THEY ARE BETTER OFF DONT YOU UNDERSTAND?
At last some free time (I do have a day job) to reply to the inane response from one known naysayer and another...who claims to be a Long.
In response:
Subtle change in direction : opinions differ....debatable...not worth the time
Cashflow : please note I said financial institution will "lend against" this cashflow, not make a derivative out of it? Selling the income stream? Didn't 2008 teach you anything?
Have you thought of going back to basic borrowing 101 like walking down Mainstreet and have a Property Title in your hand and telling Mr. Bank Manager " Sir, I have this property that has been rented out to XYZ Company (here are their financial statements and Sir, they are going to make improvements and these asset enhancements will belong to my company at the end of the rental period) and oh, they will be paying a rental of say $100k a month.....can I BORROW $xxx since I have this current income stream and can SERVICE a loan for at least 5 years but would like to ask for a X years loan tenor? Terms to be determined. All a matter of financial packaging. The property is currently valued at $YYYm and Sir, your LOAN to ASSET cover is X times. (Could someone familiar please fill in the YYY)
I won't do your homework for you but please call up any bank in the UK with this loan proposal and see how much you can get. (Clue : much more than $3-4m throw in a well known company as a tenant and a locational backdrop where there are other pharmaceutical campuses).
Besides the loan giving them some breathing space, a successful trial will also give rise to partnership opportunities. So if you still spread FUD that this rental income is inconsequential to a biotech (whom before this event did not have any monthly income) well....and also, please don't subtly hint at an R/S, if Linda stoicly went through a migration from Nasdaq to the OTC to avoid an R/S, do you really think at this late stage of the game she will go down that road? Please, a higher standard of FUD.
I've jousted with Jerry Campbell over at YMB many a time on Finance matters and the retorts on my current post are pretty amateurish compared to the exchanges he and I had over the years. Understand he is now over at the Village...still proclaiming his "Mother Teresa" work of saving us investors from "Enron Linda", he really should see a therapist, after all he says he has no skin in the game but spends the whole day at the keyboard posting.
Notice the subtle change in direction by our resident naysayers?
They are now tempering our expectations on the price "after" a possible positive Top Line result announcement. Not more than $1???? MC of $400m? For a new SOC for GBM? Good try!
Their rationale, it's going to take "years and years" before it sees $5 or more because of ramp ups in production and marketing...yup....good one! Your rationale is so lame that anyone with Finance 101 can tear down your argument. Have you heard of PE ratios? It maybe valued on potential earnings but a cancer (Direct) / GBM SOC at $1?
Takeaway......they know we are at the cusp of positive results and are mentally preparing us investors that "should" Topline be positive, they are advising you to sell, sell sell...because it's NOT going to be more than a $1! Sell at 30/50/70/90 cents.....giving them more stocks to cover.
We are close to the finishing line and they are trying to tell you about valuation models etc....hello? I'm in the venture cap business and biotech with an FDA approval? It's to da moon Alice and don't tell me otherwise because the pipeline starved BPs or those with patents running out will be scrambling to "court" the little engine that could!
We may get another round of dilution but remember, we can expect an income stream soon from rents. Financial institutions WILL lend against current cash flows as opposed to a "possible" drug approval, hence the need for the recent round toxic financings to keep the "lights on" shorties failed, again. Linda obtained an income stream to see us through the ramp up period. Loans are extended based on cashflow streams and only a small part, on asset values. NWBO may have a prime property location for logistics and distribution but their masterstroke is to rope in a good and solid tenant.
Psych war Phase of the assault has begun!
Just for the record, these are my opinions and I'm not connected to the company in any shape or form but a long time shareholder.
To recap on my "Sunday musings" post last week (that was deleted), I had speculated on :
- Possible effect of NW's action that resulted in the price plunge (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/northwest-biotherapeutics-to-probe-allegations-of-poor-governance/2015/12/01/0deaf1ae-97c5-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html?utm_term=.df9df15eed79)
- Possible reasons for the "bad blood" between Linda and him
- Use of the Dendreon playbook (Google Deep Capture on how they brought down DNDN, Valeant later bought it at a Chapter 11 price of $400m and then sold it off to a Chinese company Sanpower for $819.9m 8 months later)
- The role of Fudsters and how they operate
- Why this company is perfect for a Pump & Dump scam but there has been no attempt to do so
I would like to expand on my hypothesis. First, some historical background for newbies and a few reasons on why I subscribe to the manipulation theory :
- I believe that this is one of the most manipulated stock with very "powerful people" or BP behind it. The Washington Post and CREW had to back off when they took issue to the bash articles by The Street. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/northwest-biotherapeutics-stock-woes-highlight-the-harm-of-short-sales/2014/09/26/78b99b0a-4507-11e4-b47c-f5889e061e5f_story.html?utm_term=.2f55d0151eb3).
The Street's lawyers had paid this Pulitzer Prize columnist a visit and he subsequently backed off. Why didn't the Post support him? They initially said they would get their own attorneys on it. How could AF get them to do this if "larger personalities" were not behind it?
- The DMC chairman himself had to come out to defend NWBO, an unprecedented move by a sitting DMC chairman of a trial. Not much airplay on it.
- How about AF being able to "locate an MD Anderson doctor" who wasn't even involved in the trial but got him to put in his "unethical" assertion for AF to quote. This very doctor had previously touted a drug still in trials. No "unethical" accusations then...why...because it was sponsored by a BP?
- Media control. To me the most recent bullish news, directors lending their own money to the company. Was it reported by mainstream news? Totally downplayed! The Naysayers' refrain, they were "paid interest", hey Einstein, if a company is going bankrupt would you still lend it money at 12% or 15% or 25%? After all, NWBO had "already" failed in their trials and as directors, they should know this but still.... Or yes, to pay themselves! (Sarcasm, in case I'm misquoted) Or why didn't they buy stock, Insider transactions this close to results? Think man, think!
The above are just a few facts for the newbies on why I reckon there are bigger things at play here than just a yea or a nay on this drug. Billions of dollars are potentially at stake here. LP knows it, NW knows and so do the BPs. We are talking disruptive tech!
My 2 cents take on the price action and possible manipulation.
For this stock's price to be continually depressed, the people behind it must "discourage" new investors or casual retail from investing. A company that is close to announcing trial results is bound to attract traders, risk takers, small HFs, Algo opportunists, your cousins, friends, every man and his dog, all wanting to buy into this ...17 cents to "infinity and beyond" Cinderella story with only a downside risk of 17cents!
How would a manipulator hold back the hordes?
- First analyze the profile of the current shareholders. They are probably retail, day traders, stale bulls or newbies, still here despite adverse posts, blogs, tweets and the general FUD that is floating around. These would be the "die hards" who are "married" to the stock, believe in the science or have confidence in management or whatever other reasons but they are in for the long haul. Therefore a stable and known "quantity" to the manipulators. Unlikely to have much interest or firepower to average or make further investments. So the "bad" guys theoretically still "own" the playing field.
- Do daily price walk downs to frustrate any thoughts of averaging by stale bulls and discourage new investors (price weakness is a sign of a failed trial, therefore assumed to be "shunned" by the more "astute" investors, insiders and institutions, after all, they should know better).
- Wash Trade at lower prices creating a spiral. That's a possible answer to the question where all these shares are coming from! MMs are a law unto themselves! Are they audited? This is not the Nasdaq, these guys rule the waves until a bigger whale comes along!
- Perhaps get a "chart technician" to come out every time there is a rally to tell investors / traders where the "resistance and support" prices are? Is it to perhaps limit the price rise? Or give a blinding" hint for traders to take profits at the resistance and conversely for traders to "not buy" the stock when the support is broken? Notice that the resistance is "almost always" not broken but the support "inevitably" collapses? So, is this "information" is for the retail traders or newbies...chart says it's time to sell or to hold off buying! Jinx or deliberate? However, in all fairness, it could be purely an innocent way of drumming up technical teaching business....but just a thought!
- Painting the tape. Traders use algos for floor/ceiling price signalling, usually pre programmed (not rocket science) at the buy / sell trigger points or price levels that are to be flagged. This is usually at certain price percentage movements and volume surges. Closing in the red will cause it to be under the "radar" of most algos. A price drop of 0.005 for a 17 cent share is close to 3%? Algos won't flag the stock. Have you guys ever wondered why a bona fide shareholder would want to sell 1000 shares at the Bid when it is only 0.001 cents below the Ask? A 10 cents difference to a sale but it makes it red at the close? To let it run up over a few sessions could potentially get it flagged and possibly be given a "once over" by a junior analyst and if it has a "story", will be further researched and analysed. Heaven forbid this occurring to a shortie's target stock, when funds smell blood (like a VW short squeeze in the making) it will be a "vicious dog eat dog fight" and if NWBO has potentially irrefutable results on its side, its lights out for the shorties. (Maybe LP is planning something along those lines, I hope so) Holding the price down is a cheap but effective trick of the trade to let the stock go unnoticed by the other vultures. Money has no loyalty!
I truly believe a game of "bankrupt" the company is unfolding here and a "buy it cheap later scheme" in play. LP may have a compelling story but if you can't keep the lights on....DNDN ( the end the end, couldn't resist!) The real villain or Valeant wannabe will emerge (like the Deep Capture story) when the dust settles. However, these guys didn't count on a tenacious management, a few friendly Analysts (who remained true and bullish) and a whole bunch of knowledgeable and diligent MB posters who know their stuff. Digging up reservations for meeting rooms in Canada, Bills of lading by cognate, Recruitment ads, joining the dots etc....bravo!
My thanks to you guys on this Board. I'm only a finance person but you guys have related / unrelated day jobs but yet have the in depth medical knowledge and diligence to help us other lay people sift through the noise! Your posts have also convinced me that we are at the cusp of medical history and as a minor shareholder I hope to one day say, "I bought some shares when it was at 17cents and that's how daddy got his Lear"! ??????
Our day is coming, next month or year end or early 2018, whatever, I'll still be here but I would not want to be a short and end up like Jesse Livermore! One last passing shot (pun not intended), ask yourselves this question, if it is a failed trial, why isn't this stock at 0.001 cents but seem to be hovering in the teens? Riddle me that?
Shorts, you have been warned!
GLTALs
Thought I should follow up to my earlier post.
I was informed that a portion of my post was in violation of the TOS and I could repost if I took the portion out. However, as taking parts of it out may lose some of the essence of my thoughts, I'd just rather not repost.
Anyway, I truly believe we are near the finishing post of this arduous ride (with its numerous twists and turns) and kudos again to management for trying their darnedest to "keep the lights on" so that when the "Approval Letter" comes, they can at least read it in the light!
Btw, Flipper44, your points are noted and I should not have broad brushed some of my points.
Well, it's on the road again....flight has just been called!
GLTALs
Hey Highwayman,
Good to see "old handles" from the YMB days! Still alive and kicking and afraid I'm guilty of averaging down all the way to 15cents! Something to help the cause and hopefully the retirement fund!
I've been too busy to contribute to the MB but I do follow IH from airport lounge to airport lounge. The posts here provide such valuable insights, especially those posted by flipper, senti and a whole bunch of others. Just too long to list but all the same greatly appreciated by us bona fide shareholders. Thank you!
Al4door, I'm sorry I can't provide any opinion on the Hold as it is beyond my area of expertise and will have to defer to the technical guys here to hypothesize. All I know is that we are on the home stretch and believe that "all will be revealed" soon!
Good luck guys!