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It does no such thing.
Posters with bluster just mad that I’m right and you’re wrong.
Why don’t you do the work of disproving these posts. My guess is you can’t.
That’s not so bad as Missling can’t either
What he will do is say don’t look at that. Instead look at this shiny thing over here.
This is interesting, but doesn't address my point. All this says is Anavex is right, but doesn't show anywhere where the other people are wrong. Just a snarky comment about SA guy
My point is where is analysis going through the Substack article math point by point and the SA article math from last night point by point.
He's gotten NO drugs approved so he's perfect for Anavex's regulatory team.
I'm a sucker for a happy ending as much as the next guy, but being in trial doesn't mean she's on the drug. Yes, it could mean that, but have you heard of placebo effect?
The authors of these articles are not speculating.
They're using the data the company shared.
Here's the thing...I've seen 2 or 3 detailed analyses of the data poking holes at the conclusions. Not one person on this board or anywhere else has provided a detailed analysis showing where they're wrong. All anyone has said is a version of "that's BS." Well, if it's BS show us your math.
The best thing is for the company to provide the math proving BS, but Missling isn't going to do that for us any time soon. Why is that? Either because he's realized his math is wrong and the naysayers are right OR he's going to wait for the peer review to take himself out of the equation having to defend the math. He'll let the authors do that.
No doubt this was a ridiculous NON answer.
Missling's not dumb, just no business savvy.
Way over his skis as CEO - can't clearly communicate to the street which doesn't inspire investor confidence coupled with consistently missing deadlines which doesn't inspire execution ability - most important in trials and commercialization.
He's just f'ing terrible. No way around it.
Already posted. Check the board first.
I don't expect it, but If Missling doesn't come through by Monday after having a chance to work the weekend we won't see the data until the peer reviewed article in 12 months. He knows his credibility is gone so after a week of beatings he may as well wait and have the data peer reviewed by an unbiased (hopefully) bunch of scientists rather than getting the $hit kicked out of him daily. This of course is a self inflicted wound caused by any number of critical thinking and execution errors. Missling most definitely needs to be fired as CEO. Perhaps he can stay as CFO, but that's it.
Guy didn't even announce he joined Anavex on LinkedIn.
Probably took the job because he needed the cash, but didn't want his personal network to know about it.
In short, embarrassing for him to work with this joke of a CEO
Here's another one picking apart Missling. No response or 8K filing yet, but there's still time.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4563626-anavex-thorough-approach-to-data
Just proposing theories like everyone else does every day all day.
Air at Colleton River Plantation is just ok today so hard to breath.
Who's thinking bad news 8K after the close?
That would be the perfect time to inform the world that Missling's HP 12C was low on battery's so the calcs were incorrect.
That's what he gets for using a financial calculator instead of a stats one.
This analysis is right on point.
I've told Missling the last 3 days that his naysayers are all but calling him a liar and asking him what is he going to do about it.
At this point Missling has realized the ADL problem - fail - and is working out how to spin as an honest mistake. He is also going to couple the mistake acknowledgement with other positive data like the 50mg results and announcing he's moving forward with a phase 3 trial at 50mg vs. placebo with the same endpoints in an attempt to minimize the blow.
That won't work because the stock is being evaluated on the credibility of the CEO and not much else right now.
It's just wait and see for now. I think you can buy about 50% lower than here in the very near future.
You know Anavex has access to computers, right.
This is not hard: basic statistical programs like SPSS or SAP can calculate everything is literally seconds.
You just have to have a clean database as well as ask the software the right questions.
Yes, right. Anavex is a small, unknown biotech company that doesn't get the benefit of the doubt on anything. Anavex will get turned down because they can't present the data to regulators in a clear, compelling manner. Missling starts out 10 strokes behind big pharma in front of the FDA so he has play perfectly just to catch up. Perhaps he's better with the FDA than he is with analysts, but I doubt it. Bottom line, he has to be perfect. He can't tell the FDA that his way of doing analysis is better than how it's been done before. That may be true, but does he really want to die on that hill and/or wait for the big boys present it his way. Bureaucrats don't like change. Missling will never convince them his way is better. Biogen maybe can.
The substack post seems pretty compelling that this trial was a failure.
Why are you confident in a successful phase 3 given the failure of phase 2?
Is it simply better chosen participants based on precision medicine?
That's fine. The last 10k from the other day said no shares remain available for issuance on the 2019 agreement and none were issued in 2021 or 2022 - page 76. While I don't recall anavex issuing an 8k terminating the deal I do recall reading in a filing that the deal was terminated. Is an agreement like this one with LPC still active if there's no shares available?
I glad you know with a new trial "it's going to be good" because I sure as hell don't.
Every trial Missling messes around with the data making results unclear at best and misleading at worst. He's clearly a finance guy and over his head as a science guy.
I agree, most likely not lie.
Doesn't mean a calculation mistake couldn't be made and the 8-K has to be amended.
Given that the data showed up the day before it's not crazy to think a mistake could be made.
That's why Missling needs to prepare the additional data in the format suggested by investor immediately and quit f-ing around. His naysayers are all but calling him a liar. The Substack guy is just the latest.
Companies amend filings all the time.
Acknowledge your post was wrong. Anavex doesn't use vulture investors any longer. There's an actual date in the 10K you can look up.
Bio, here's where you lose your credibility. The vulture investor Lincoln Park was closed out a couple of year ago. Read the 10K for proof. You may argue the ATM with Cantor and Riley is the same thing, but it's not. Missling also raised money last year from a biotech investment firm at $25 or so.
I agree: If, if, if is the problem. That's all anyone can say.
There were 170 people on 50mg. Not approving based on 170. The only possibility and it's low (and I've been saying this) is if (there's that word again) the results achieve near perfection at 50 mg. Define perfection however you want. So far, this isn't that.
Sure, they're going to do exactly as you suggest. Not based on these trial results presented by this CEO. The advisory are risk averse bureaucrats too. Not going out on a limb.
At the end of the day it's politics and Missling loses unless he gives them a damn good reason not to reject. He hasn't.
Indeed !!!
Struck. a. nerve.
Good. for. you. to reduce holdings. Very. smart. move.
I would even go short and cover at $4.00.
That's what I've done.
The FDA is a bunch of scientific, bureaucratic, weasels which by definition means they aren't going out on a limb approving anything from Anavex that isn't an obvious home home. That means near perfection in all aspects. Have you met a bureaucrat? They are the most risk averse people on the planet. As much as I'd like to believe it they aren't approving this drug based on this trail data EVER.
The fact the FDA approved aducanucamb is irrelevant. If anything it makes approval of 2-73 LESS not more likely. The FDA stepped out on that limb for that drug and it was chopped off. It's not going to happen again for a very. long. time.
I thought Missling hired a bunch of people?
What are they doing?
BTW - Lecanemab was published in a peer reviewed article within just a month or two of initial results being PR'd.
That's Missling's bogey.
I heard Dr. Perry. He falls into the conflicts of interest category. Why do you think he was there? Only to support Missling's narrative.
Talk to me when the stock's at $5 and stays there for 5 years.
Says you and other biased people with conflicts of interest. People who aren't cheerleaders and who are objective see it the same way: Missling F'D up, AGAIN. This time with the added element of anger coupled with self-righteousness. Most, if not all of the time, that means lying or at best not telling the truth.
People do dumb, crazy $hit all the time to jeopardize their careers. One of the tells of a liar is when they are angry and self righteous when being pushed for answers.
At the beginning of yesterday's call when Missling hides behind "we're in the business of making patients lives better" in what I thought was self righteous anger the possibility of him lying went way up. I never thought this about him before until then. That statement also makes me think he's woke and doesn't understand his job.
His job is to commercialize drugs. That obviously makes lives better, but that's not his job, that's an outcome.
For the market it comes down to this:
The market believes (justifiably) that the design of these trials won't yield any regulatory approvals for AD within the next 5 years.
Missling can say "aggressively" all he wants, but no regulatory body is going out on a limb and approving 2-73 with this design and this data.
Maybe she's on placebo. This is a blinded trial so the mother has no idea.
I sent an email to Missling saying he was done. Told him he can't lead the company after screwing up 2 major clinical readouts. Told him his arrogance and hubris was a problem and he's been caught. You can't just redefine things as you go along and expect everyone to say ok without major blowback.
This is a zombie company and Missling is a zombie CEO for the foreseeable future.
Cantor definitely gets fired from the ATM. No more easy fees for you.
Cantor ATM guys are saying thanks Charles.
The principal financial officer looks like the smartest person in the room.
She exercised and sold all she could last year and cleared $3 million.
Missling wasn't even smart enough to do that.
Good for her.
I saw several news stories over the weekend with trial participants of lucanumab. So wrong
Another wasted year from Missling. Nothing really happened that translated into value. 2 fuster cluck readouts and pile of options for Missling, value destroyed for shareholders. Another wasted year for me reading mostly nonsense.
Nobody KNOWS anything including you. Like 99% of the posts on this board it's a prediction.