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Hmm. You had my interest, now you have my attention. NSP has been going up for five years. Tell me more. What happened over there exactly?
CEI- News is out, and it's good. Plus, SSR day. Great timing. Expecting fireworks.
Great call on CEI, Ash. Good runup today, and holding well. Here's a link over to some good DD, in case anybody missed Ash's excellent DD awhile back:
http://stocktwits.com/PghD/message/138539609
Natesto has the potential to be “paradigm shifting” in our approach to develop a safe and effective treatment for men with low T who wish to preserve fertility.
https://www.eu-focus.europeanurology.com/article/S2405-4569(18)30228-1/fulltext
Interesting video on preliminary test results. On demand testosterone boost. 1.7 mil float. Hmmm.
https://stocktwits.com/JSGinger/message/135394636
You called it. Congrats!
Eh. Classic pump & dump. But it's definitely screwed down tight. There's too much genuinely right with CEI to to keep it here for long, IMO.
Looks like the shorts are getting out now. News must be impending.
SPCB - Setting up a golden cross on the 8x34 chart. Looks poised to move up.
Discover Growth Fund recently purchased 1.9 million shares, and currently owns 9.99% of the company. Interestingly, DGF also seems to be a one employee company headquartered in Grand Cayman. If I had to hazard a guess, the buy triggered the spike a month or so ago, and he (or she) has been shorting ever since. You could definitely manipulate the SP with that many shares to swing around. Thoughts?
Thanks, Ash. Still seeing red flags, or does it look safe to put a toe in the water?
Institutional investment:
https://fintel.io/i/discover-growth-fund
A LOT of institutional selling since April. Somebody over at Discover Growth must think they're onto something nobody else is seeing.
Same on Stocktwits. Pumping and shorting, more likely. ER isn't until mid November, I think. Good news coming EOM and September, if all goes well, but gonna be a rough ride in the meantime, maybe even til ER.
Excellent call here, Ash. Any idea why this is going in the wrong direction?
Ok, who slapped the Ask? Sitting at 270 right now. Seriously!?
It's quiet. Too quiet...
I've been on some bumpy rides with Ash on DCTH & DRYS, and I totally agree - his DD is excellent. Thank you, Ash! This should be another interesting ride. GLTA!
Nah. Given the very narrow range this has been trading in, I'd say somebody covered a sizable short position ahead of the weekend. If no news on Monday, I'd say shorts will be hard at it, and we'll be back to $3.10's to $3.20's by Tuesday or Wednesday. On the other hand, if there's news...different story. JMHO.
According to shortsqueeze.com, short interest is 3,001,700. Down from 3,316,900, or about 10%.
If I read my prospectus correctly, the shares that GE purchases as the backstop are subject to a six month lock up. And while friends and family could have bought the offering, they'd have been money ahead to buy when the share price was well below $2.75, like anyone else.
Let's watch what he does with the shares once he has them. That should tell us a great deal.
It'll take time to move the share price up in a stable way. There's a lot of churn waiting to happen. If I were GE, and I had six months of tailwind to build up the pps before releasing 36 million shares into the float, I'd want the price to be as high as possible and heading higher. It would also give him more room to short on the way down.
Plus, I'm sure those locked up shares aren't the only shares in play with GE and his friends.
The important thing is to watch what he does, or doesn't do, and not wait for him to do what we think he should be doing. He may have reasons to keep the price locked down going forward. If the price isn't moving up between the conclusion of the Offering, and the end of December, I'd strongly suspect GE's interests may no longer be aligned with shareholders.
JMHO
So am I. It also puts GE in the best possible position to squeeze the shorts. If he can hold the pps here until the Offering is finalized, he can certainly make it run after it's over. He's got all the ammunition he needs - BDI is up, ships are being delivered, rates are up, he could choose to pay down debt or buy more assets w/the $100 mil. Diluted NAV is somewhere between $7-$10, and everybody knows it. He could drive pps up any number of ways.
But if the pps doesn't move after the offering and before the end of December, I'd say something is up, and that something isn't likely to be good for shareholders...
Burnt Before beat me to it. In the prospectus under Lockup. I should've been more clear - the lockup applies only to the backstop investor, NOT common shareholders who would take advantage of the offering.
And given that circumstance, I think the best thing that could happen in the near term would be if GE bought all the shares.
This Rights Offering appears to be a dog & pony show designed to put 36 million additional shares into GE's hands. Why would he need so many additional shares if he already has 53% control of the company unless he was positioning for further share dilution and reverse splits down the road? The prospectus practically says as much, indicating that following the Rights Offering, GE may control 70% of the company, and that his interests may not align with shareholders. The lockup on the Rights Offering is six months, but after December, the company is free to go back to diluting shares, outside of the Offering. I'm thinking any reasonably 'safe' window of opportunity is between now and December 31st. After that, all bets are off, and it's a brand new game.
As I reread the Basic Subscription Right, I believe you are correct, and I'm wrong. Each Right entitles you to purchase 1.1526 shares at $2.75 per share, so every 1.1526 shares would cost $3.1697. I misunderstood it to mean you'd be buying at a 15% discount, but in actuality, you're entitled to purchase 15% more shares than qualified you for the Rights Offering at $2.75/share. I apologize for the confusion.
According to the prospectus, if you are eligible to receive The Rights Offering, you have been issued Rights equal to the number of shares which qualified you for the offering. Each Right may be purchased for $2.75 and the buyer will receive 1.1526 shares for each Right purchased (although the company will round down partial shares). You may buy some, all, or none of the Rights. If you buy none, the Rights Offering will simply expire on Oct 2.
I believe the purchase of 'extra' shares you refer to relates to the Oversubscription Privilege. IF you fully execute your Basic Subscription Rights (buy ALL of the Rights you see sitting in your portfolio), you THEN may request to buy ADDITIONAL Rights, up to the number of initial qualification, and they will be provided IF available. If not enough shares are available to fill everyone's Oversubscription requests, orders will be filled in proportion to the shares you own relative to everyone else making the request. The Oversubscription Rights must be paid for up front, and if your request cannot be completely filled, that amount of your money will be refunded.
I recommend that you read the prospectus, and discuss it with a financial planner. My guy said this was new territory for him, so be careful. It doesn't surprise me at all that TDA and other online brokerages aren't much help.
I will also say this feels a lot like a carrot on a stick,and an easy way to get way in over your head. Be very careful.
I read it as you exercise one Right at $2.75, and receive 1.15 shares. I'll clarify with Ed Jones in the morning, but 99% sure. Wouldn't make sense, otherwise.
I received the perspectus, and this is how it it reads:
'The Basic Subscription Right gives our shareholders the opportunity to purchase 1.1526 shares for every share of Common Stock owned on the Record Date at a subscription price of $2.75 per share. For example, if you owned 1,000 shares of our Common Stock, as of 5:00 p.m., New York City time on The Record Date, your Basic Subscription Right would entitle you to receive 1,000 Rights and you would have the right to purchase 1,152 shares (rounded down from 1,152.60) of Common Stock for $2.75 per share.'
That's straight from the perspectus. I have not exercised the option, as I'm not too far off in my own share price as it is, I'm 10k deep, and there's always risk, especially with GE and DRYS. Just trying to provide clarity. I hope this helps. GLTA.
Those aren't shares you're seeing. They're Rights. You should have Rights equal to the number of shares that qualified you for the offering. Each Right entitles you to purchase 1.15 shares of common stock. It's all in the prospectus.
In the near term, the best thing that could happen would be if GE purchased the entire offering. The lockup would take those shares out of play for six months, giving earnings and revenue forecasts a chance to drive up the share price, while avoiding sell offs by profit takers. Plus, disincentivise GE and friends to short the stock.
Since every Right enables you to buy 1.15 shares, if you exercised 1000 Rights, at $2.75 per Right, you'd have 1,150 shares for $2,750. That makes PPS $2.39. We're already above that now. Current price levels should actually be an incentive to buy the rights offering, and take advantage of the Oversubscription option, too. Anybody see it differently?
I agree with you. GE does hold the cards. So I'm watching what he does, more than what he says. The ER was strangely, and inconveniently devoid of any forward guidance. Instead, it contained a statement about having received a subpoena from the SEC. That went over like a lead balloon, and here we are. I'd love to be wrong, but the rights offering, against the backdrop of this company's relationship with shareholders, always felt more like a carrot on a stick than an olive branch. I think it may be GE's plan to make the rights offering unattractive, so few will take advantage of it before it expires in a month. If the company is not forthcoming with positive press releases, and soon, I think it'll become clear that this was his intent. If that's the case, PPS goes up after 10/2. Again, I hope I'm wrong.
Got to admit, this has me thinking. $2.75 was supposed to be a floor, not a ceiling. Unless it was never meant to be a ceiling. I'm wondering what GE has up his sleeve. Why would anybody take advantage of the offering before the price is over $2.75? The SEC investigation is going be like an albatross on the share price until they concede there's no wrong doing, and that's likely to be well after the Oct 2nd deadline for the offering. But the offering is backstopped by GE. Does that mean he's about to become majority shareholder when he purchases $100mil worth of shares at $2.75 after October 2nd? Hmmmm.
Thanks, Emptyhead. Can someone please sticky this? Everything you need to know about how to access the offering.