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I can feel the love...
I don't necessarily question whether or not GNF is a better deal for the consumer. I question whether or not it will be a more profitable deal for the company and stockholders. So far JF and crew haven't shown anyone they have what it takes to sustain profitability.
Short term gains for the stockholders in this penny stock have little to do with long term business gains for this company in this industry.
I'll let it go at that. My goals with GZFX are fairly short term right now - it's obvious our perspectives/conclusions are significantly different.
Think about that for a moment.
These whiners complaining about throttling don't make any money for Netflix... they are profit-sucking consumers. And you want them to subscribe to GNF--that's clearly not making any profit, with prices set for an even less profit margin than Netflix.
That don't make no sense at all.
As a NFLX stockholder I say get rid of these bums.
As a GZFX stockholder I say we don't need'em over here.
This is the sort of tripe coming from this crowd...
So, like I said I had no problems for roughly 6 months, and I would recieve about 20 movies a week. Now I know this sounds like an astronimical amount of movies, but I wasn't really watching them all I was just copying them and making my own home library.
http://www.hackingnetflix.com/2006/02/comments_on_the.html#comments
If Gameznflix survives long enough, they'll be dealing with this very issue.
You're beginning to sound like a honest-to-goodness pumper. That makes me more nervous than your past negativity.
The first sentence says it all...IMO...
Manuel Villanueva realizes he has been getting a pretty good deal since he signed up for Netflix Inc.'s online DVD rental service 2 1/2 years ago
He's looking for publicity or maybe some $$$ from a settlement to get him to shut his mouth. He's whiner. He just needs to sit down and shut up.
OT: Yeah... good on ya. That's what I want... collect my pension for at least as long as I was active duty. I got 29.5 right now, got a waiver to stay until 32.
OT: E8
RD - they took the 'sexually explicit' stuff out in 1996. It caused quite a big stink at the time, but it doesn't seem to be a big deal these days.
Maybe you missed this:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9676390
Goin' over the the top on this aren't you?
Of course they have the right to access/buy/view porn... on their own time and in their own privacy. And if GZFX wants to offer it to them, of course they have the right to do so.
It just can't be sold in AAFES. Is that so hard to grasp?
Sexually explicit material is not allowed in the "military" work place, or on government computer systems.
This isn't complicated.
And I don't care what people watch... with the exception of my wife and kids.
And I don't normally search lockers... and if I did find porn while conducting a legal search (unless it's kiddie porn) I expect I'd ignore it... unless it was porn we're specifically looking for... for some odd reason.
Let's not get too dramatic... most of us don't wake up thinking we're going to get shot in the head today.
We keep drifting from the original issue...
The H U G E AAFES deal!!! It probably won't happen if porn's involved. I expect JF knows that. It's probably already a dead issue.
It has nothing to do with our 1st ammendment rights... according to Clinton's Supreme Court.
So what are you saying?
Porn will soon be available in AAFES by way of Gameznflix?
Maybe... but it would surprise me that AAFES would cut a deal like that.
I don't believe I said anything about the UCMJ... but in this case it would apply to anyone in uniform having unauthorized porn in his/her possession in the wrong place... and getting caught by the 'wrong' person. "Witch Hunts" (except on the computer networks) aren't really that common. The trick is to not be stupid. That's easier for some than others.
Here - look at this if you really want to gloat:
http://www.manuelsweb.com/netflix.htm
Manuel Villanueva's personal NFLX bashing website. If he were to do this to GZFX y'all would accuse him of being a paid basher. Superficially he's done a great job... but it's actually not too hard to poke lots of holes in his thesis of how bad the "problem" really is.
Regarding GZFX and throttling... eventually, if GZFX ever reaches profitability, they'll also have to decide what to do with profit-eating customers. Every industry has to.
Villanueva is the classic case of a very vocal minority making a mountain outta a mole hill. Netflix carries the highest consumer satisfaction rating of any online company... consistently.
Argue all you want to prove your point.
The point we're talking about is porn via GZFX into AAFES.
That ain't gonna happen.
Over.
http://www.defense.gov/news/Sep1998/n09241998_9809244.html
It's not allowed.
Clinton banned it.
OT Yup - and in those days... 75-83, one could smoke dope and get away with it. Try that today. C-Ya!
You didn't READ what I wrote Frankie...
I don't doubt there's a market for renting video games, the question is, can you profit from renting video games?
RENTING games, Frankie... not selling them.
AND... the big names in selling USED games are EB Toys and GameStop. AND their model is taking used games in, giving in-store credits (not cash) and turning them around. My kids are hooked on that. Check out GME sometime.
The model for renting games, then selling them to the renters isn't a proven model yet.
Show me a company that does that AND is showing a significant profit.
Regarding "Mom & Pop's"... Your argument is again with Reed Hastings, not me... from his 2005 Q4 CC, I do not question his accuracy.
"The second factor I want to touch on is competition. You may think that VOD or Blockbuster Online is our primary competition. But all of our research shows that local video stores remain the primary alternative to Netflix for consumers. And it is clear that the local video store economic model continues to weaken. As Blockbuster Online invests more in marketing in 2006 to approach 2 million subscribers, and as we grow to nearly 6 million subscribers this year, the awareness and size of the online rental market expands greatly. The result in economic pressure on Movie Gallery stores, Blockbuster stores, and the smaller chains will intensify. In the San Francisco Bay Area, where online rental is ahead of the nation, Blockbuster closed 10% of its stores in 2005. This is part of the reason that in the Bay Area, Netflix saw an acceleration of net additions in Q4, with Netflix now in over 12% of all households in a market that serves as a remarkably accurate indicator of our national trend line."
As far as GZFX being "entrenched" - that remains to be seen doesn't it? Do you have any idea what Netflix may or may not be planning? I don't think Fleming is as god-like as many around here seem to believe. His background is venture capital... so far he hasn't shown us he can run a public company and take care of the investors at the same time.
I read my post over again Frankie - what did I say that you disagree with?
Frankie - I got six kids... all boys... from 9 to 26. I have five computers in the house and two X-Boxes.
You might be right.
I don't doubt there's a market for renting video games, the question is, can you profit from renting video games?
Maybe.
Currently most game rentals come from local Mom & Pop brick & mortars (Video & Games) ... in the process of being driven out of business by Netflix. That may very well create a void that GZFX can fill... if they get in quick enough to beat NLFX when/if they decide they want that market.
We'll see soon enough if Fleming has it wired or not, won't we?
I bet Hastings and crew has looked long and hard at it... and I bet they have a pretty good idea what the numbers are... and I bet they've considered their options and when they move it will be overwhelmingly fast and furious.
I simply said the reason NFLX hasn't entered this market has already been stated by Reed Hastings... argue with him. He knows old movies are his gravy... and his company's stock shows it.
Read this:
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/99/open_customer-netflix.html
All I really want out of this is a 3-bagger. Double my money and leave 1/3 of my stock to ride. Almost had it in December.
True.
But games have higher initial investment cost. The users hold them longer, so you need more in the inventory to rent. They have a more finite life-cycle resulting in greater investment as you turn them over.
NFLX has determined they make most of their money by renting older movies. The movie rental model is significantly different from the games rental.
The emerging GZFX business model seems to have more in common with Amazon than with NFLZ.
It seems they're spreading themselves pretty thin (DVD, Games, Books, VOD, SAT, you-name-it) in a broad arena filled with well-funded, name-branded competition. I still hold that they're not focused enough. They're bouncing all over the place. Doing exactly opposite what (for example) AAPL does. They're too small, thinking too big. Think about it.
No sweat FF...
You had a few beers... I'm recovering from my first colonoscopy this morning. Yesterday's prep sucked...
I try to not take too much too personal.
Did you jump back in on this one yet?
hahahaha!
Sure... what's your question? hahahaha!
I guess you're right! hahaha
but why did they avoid games? ahhhhhh ;^)
According to Reed, the profit margin is too small and no one else (by this I suppose, 'serious' competitor) is doing it. That alone could make one ask if it's really worth the investment to make it work.
As I watch GZFX begin to unfold it's becoming more apparent they aren't really interested in competing with NFLX, they're going after AMZN. LOL
I guess you're talking about the "throttling" issue rising to the surface again. Maybe it's GZFX shareholders trying to turn the company upside down.
The truth is... it's just not an issue to the large majority of Netflix subscibers. Perhaps it shows in their high customer satisfaction rating, despite this 'pressing' issue for a very small portion of their customer base.
Gameznflix will (with lots of luck) have to deal with this very issue some day too. I'll be curious to see how JF and crew solve this problem... and remain profitable (whenever they get there).
OT: Nothing like stereotyping...
But - cops got donuts, soldiers got hookers... Could be worse.
I guess that's all they got to do in their spare time when they're not playing GAMEZ... reading the old one-handed magazines and lusting after the hot babes in the porn flicks.
Good thing we got them standing by, waiting to protect our freedom... with their guns in their hands.
PORN WILL SAVE GZFX!!!
I'm not serious.
I have far more respect for
our fighting men and women.
OT: Man... this place is Bi-polar.
So actually you're only "long" until you hit a self-predetermined level of "riches" ... then you'll sell?
It just may take a little longer for you to flip it than for someone else.
Okay. I'll buy that. We're all long... some longer than others.
Yeah Yeah...
They didn't say Phuck it! - they said Pha-Q!... they want you to go to a cheesy website and pay for information freely available from from any other respectable company...
e.g., http://ir.netflix.com/
It's just another way of cloaking themselves in secrecy.
Why would they do that?
Try this...?
http://earth.google.com/
Curiouser and curiouser.
Maybe - maybe not. There's plenty-o-companies where the insiders make money and the stockholders don't. What we have here remains to be seen.
Probably an honest mistake - just a little typo, he meant to type 3500. hehehe
What I gain from your post is...never avoid any action because the possibiliites are limitless.
Given the odds... in the past 100 years how many Americans have been eaten by grizzly bears;
What was the probability that Timothy Treadwell would be eaten by a grizzly bear?
What is the probability that YOU will be eaten by a grizzly bear?
Certainly "the odds" were in Treadwell's favor to live long and prosper... or were they?
Exploring possibilities... Sure.
In reality... not everything is possible. I think at this point it is safe to say - it is not possible to live with wild grizzly bears in their natural habitat for 13 years and not get eaten by one.
Perspective and application of knowledge. That's what makes us rational beings.
I don't care if people post their opinions, I hope they do... I'm one of the few here that seems willing to listen to what anyone has to say, without muting those that get tiresome. I try to have my idiot filter engaged at all times. :)
I'm not telling people to flip. However, I believe in the short term, flipping is probably what I'll be doing. I certainly won't tell anyone to not go long. I will encourage folks to look at the whole picture and determine their own odds for success.
All any of us "know" is what The Company has stated in their filings and what they say in their "historical" PR's. We will likely all draw different conclusions from what we "know."
I am free to believe they have lost their focus - you are free to believe they have not.
They say they are in the Video Game/DVD rental business.
Are they? How are they doing (compared to their competitors)?
Are they profitable in this business?
If not, what are they doing to achieve profitability?
What are they doing that will draw them away from this Video Game/DVD rental business?
Have they shifted their focus to "alternative content delivery?" I may have missed it, but it's not mentioned in their latest filing... only traditional Games & DVD rentals.
You can suggest this alternative content delivery distraction is all part of their big (previously undisclosed) business plan and they're keeping the details under wraps to throw off the competition.
I say balderdash to that. Smoke and mirrors.
This position of business plan secrecy at this point in the game by this old start-up, new "growth" company simply makes many of us suspicious of management's real motives. What are the "possibilities?"
They have no real track record, except that they are very willing to dilute the stock, they have a very lucrative compensation plan in place for the insiders and they have paid dearly for outside and now inside "consultants"... all at the stockholders expense. Do you deny this?
I really do hope you guys that really are long on this company do get rich. But when I consider the probabilities of that (and "rich" is a relative term) I fear the odds are not in your favor.
It's called "risk" and we all have different levels of tolerance. My risk management system normally doesn't allow for me to put more than $5000 in any single company. I limit my potential losses that way. I am reasonably satisfied with my overall portfolio. We all need to go with our own self-determined odds.
Let me tell you what pisses me off most about what I did with my GZFX play...
I initially bought in @ .006 in my taxable account, after a month or so I decided to double my position but I wanted to avoid the potential (possible) tax implications so I dumped the second purchase (@.014) into my Roth account.
I wish I had your confidence that this stock will soar. Right now I regret putting any of it in my Roth. I can handle a 100% loss, but I would prefer to have the tax loss option and I hate the idea that the potential loss to my Roth is permanent.
I made two mistakes.
1) Don't speculate with the Roth.
2) Don't ignore the details and get greedy.
Two good lessons for me - I win!
Thanks for the discourse.
CHEERS! LOL
Absolutely not. I would not suggest they do not have the capital to run their core business. Their latest filing says they do, I cannot argue with that. I believe if they held to developing their core business they'd be fine... probably thrive in the next couple years. I don't know how well the stock would do.
But... their filing also says "Our growth will require us in the future to make more significant capital investments in library content, distribution infrastructure and technology. Our current capacity will allow us to service approximately 15,000 monthly subscribers before significant investment as mentioned previously would be required."
I question whether or not they have the capital required to compete with the big boys in the R&D arena for these alternative content delivery systems AND develop their core business. This is where I think they lost their focus and are wandering away.
The only way I see them getting additional capital is through more dilution, which doesn't seem to bother them at all. It only hurts the investors, not the insiders--they are rewarded handsomely for the work they do.
We can debate the possibilites/probabilities all day - in the end I'm confident what conclusion most prudent investors will come to. How much money have the "true" GZFX longs (those already in this longer than 12 months) lost? I'm amazed they've held on so long. I wonder why. I wonder how many (honestly) would do all over again, the same way. Xan may comment on this...?
At this point in this game I believe the only safe bet with GZFX are momentum/swing plays. I expect there's lots of life left here.
Hmmm...Doesn't JF end all his emails with "Cheers!" ... ?
I've said from the beginning, I'm only here to make money. I saw (see?) some potential for that with GZFX.
As far as who was right/wrong mattering ... I agree ... I think.
I think (for many) it's mostly an ego thing, but in retrospect, those most vocal folks that were also wrong in their prognostications will certainly have less impact on my decision-making processes... so for me right/wrong opinions are significant. In the old days a prophet who spoke something that was proven wrong got stoned... and not with weed.
Cheers!
OT: I seldom (almost never) read the Yahoo message boards - how about to link to this awful stuff. I've hunted around some and can't find that which you speak of.
I'm a bit bored today... the Cowboys aren't playing.
Sorry - I wasn't trying to be mean I was just looking at possibilities.
More on this here:
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6304446.html
The money in GZFX's bank (according to Chip) is enough to keep them above water for the next year. When subs exceed 15,000 some serious capital investments will be required for any further growth. All this new content delivery R&D is also going to cost some serious $$$ to compete with "the big boys."
Some might call this, "biting off more than they can chew."
They readily admit they've been in the learning mode - and now we choose to believe they have learned enough (about their new business venture) to outsmart the "big boys" that have been at this for years (and are much better funded, not to mention connected).
Possibilities and probabilities.
I've said this before... their focus needs to be on their core business. I'm not so sure they really know what it is anymore.
If I knew in October what I know now, it's very likely none of you would have ever seen the name Egeliah. Since that's not the case, now I have to determine what the most likely probabilities are. In the meantime ... recognizing the possibilities, I hold.
Agent,
If someone told you in November, serious dilution in the next two months, would you have said probable? Most here denied it.
If someone told you in February, billions more Authorized Shares coming soon, what would you say? Most here will deny this.
If someone told you management is lining their own pockets and bankruptcy looms within the next 12 months, would you say possible? Most here will deny this.
These are ALL undeniable possibilities? Are they probabilities? (I don't know... I hope not.)
Ever hear of Webvan? If not, GOOG it.
Like I already said... anything is possible. Now we have to deal with probabilites... the reality.
"I always base my decisions on the possible return..."
Interesting difference in perspectives (that may have just dawned on me). I tend to base my decisions on what I consider probable returns. Anything is possible... but what is probable...?