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Good question. Clear as mud.
Gibba, looks like a catch-up Form D filing for prior sales of stock and debt pursuant to a private placement to 9 accredited investors that started on 8/31/16. It may already be completed. These notices are required by federal law. I read the 10-Qs/10-K which are clear as mud and could not tell if the offering was completed. In order for GT Biopharma to get uplifted to NASDAQ, they are going to undergo a lot of legal scrutiny on all of their prior stock/debt moves. Bottom line, their filings will be much more transparent once they are listed and things will be easier to follow.
Did you read the footer of the last press release? $550,000 for stock promotion until 10/1/17.
Fedel, been sitting on base hits with ATLT for awhile and now your describing a home run. Where are you getting your information?
This stock is screaming two days in a row. Thoughts?
I read all posts as we are all speculating. I like this particular bet in this sector. The biotech sector is moving and shaking. Big gains and losses at stake. Juno was up $3 yesterday. GT Biopharma is poised for a big hit.
Good analysis. Thank you oxis007. To the moon!
I have a similar perspective and an excel spreadsheet with before and after split pricing points so we are on the same page. My only remaining concern for reentry is the 23M shares issued post split to former debt holders which is free to trade due to being exempt from registration. In any event, I agree with you and am not missing the $5 to $6 range. Ultimately, the institutions will start aggregating when NASDAQ listing happens. Good luck ammobox.
I so agree with you. Just trying to figure out timing. I got plenty more to throw at this, up or down. Just trying to minimize capital outflow and hold time. I'm still trying to figure out the balancing act of these biotechs with institutional purchasing to sustain and increase share value like Kite and Juno. Optimistic based on sector, heavy hitter names, and products.
Simon, how far down or up will it go? What is the bottom? We have three Huge salaries ($500K for him and her and $400K for CFO) and huge restricted stock grants for him and to be determined for her (nail biter). One in FDA pipeline through her for 2018. How far down or up do you believe it will go? What's your timing? Next Monday new symbol.
Update coming 9/14/17. Litigation clearing up. May be ready to fly with RNAi technology. Thoughts?
What do you think is happening? Especially with regard to the new shares just issued that are exempt from registration and eligible for immediate sale (23,110,270 shares of common stock +/-494,000 post-split = +/-23,604,270). $8.00 appears to be a present value steady price range. It could be a nickel if value was figured differently by the former debt holders in addition to market factors. I would think $20.00 would be better present value based on Novartis at $87 PS and Gileads/Kite at $173 PS. Thoughts?
Your point is well taken by the way. The debt shares are exempt from registration. I'm okay averaging up or down while these biotech advancements take hold. It's a timing bet to me. Do you really believe that the debt holders (turned equity holders upon conversion) will want to sell their shares this time (like they did last time) with all the new big names, the acquisition, change of name, timing and likely success of the trials, and new execs coming on board so quickly to ruin the market and value? Wouldn't they want to leak them out strategically this time since value creation is closer to fruition this time?
We are in agreement about dilution but not stock price. The increase or decrease is a timing issue and based on a lot of factors. There is a timing difference between the issuance of restricted shares and sale of those shares in the market unless there is a registration statement. Then throw into the mix the timing of the trials to build value for the company. Throw into mix stock issued as incentives to management for building the business. Then throw into mix possible additional products that could be acquired. Throw into the mix institutional buyers that can buy if on an exchange and hold. These are elements I look at and why I'm optimistic. We already know the downside can always occur over time. Tons of no good dirty rotten scoundrel penny stocks out there. We have a real biotech play with big names, useful advanced technologies, etc. That's why everything needs to work together timing wise for successful outcome. Just my opinion.
Greed could be a good thing as long as there is no Titanic. Let's wait-n-see. It's treacherous coming down from NASDAQ to QB and then stock dropping like a tank. These Execs need to save face in the near term.
Posturing for an uncertain future event that may be simmering? Who would turn $4.3 million of cash into equity and publicly limit it until a major transaction takes place?
What are your thoughts on the 8/23/17 Certificate of Amendment?
There is a window of opportunity for increased share value (basically trading pre-split in 2 to 3 cent range) and it must be balanced. I respect your numerical ability (your posts are telling) and I have come close to your dilution calculation (I've rummaged through the SEC filings - not the clearest but that will need to change if they get to NASDAQ) but differ with you when the value diminishes to under $1 (only likely to occur if fraud or acquisition unwinds). There is a balance of time with the current market of approximately 500K shares and the new dilution shares to get rid of disclosed debt and settlements that we can't miss (assuming all company disclosures are true and not misleading). Still remain optimistic timing wise with the big names, technology, and low float. This is a timing bet and effective management is needed to make it work or all parties lose. I'm in for the biotech advancements. That's my bottom line.
I know. I watch all day for that information. They withdrew registration statement so new shares will be restricted unless they file new registration statement but that will take months. New names coming in will not take lightly low stock prices. Curious as heck with their strategy. Still optimistic.
Don't see it as a tease. Quite possible the reversal (pardon the pun) has subsided and people are holding onto their pre-split shares. Not a lot of shares after the RS. From all available published information from the Company's perspective, this could be a good bet. I don't know about the past. I only know what has been presented recently. The names and technology appear real. I'm optimistic.
Smartest due diligence yet. Thanks.
No doubt about dilution. It's a stated fact. Did you average down?
Scoot27: Help me understand. Did they have the same circumstances last RS? Same acquisition? Same big names? Same news?
Right on target. Never saw it. Thank you for sharing.
Could be different this time. Progress takes time. The news appears good. The technological advancements appear good. The names appear good. The investor road show appears good. The new IR/PR Firm for 6 months appears good. True the chart speaks for itself. The 10-Q speaks for itself. Brilliant maneuvering with convertible debt and legal process to maintain control and get to the present position. A lot to weigh here. I followed Allergan for 15 years. I'm cautiously optimistic right this minute.
Excellent synopsis. Thank you for your research and experienced explanation.