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What is "Bernanke Put"?
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=41
Record Spread in Oils! WTI - Brent $16
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=21
What time-frame should I trade as a novice?
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=48#p182
QQQQ Swing Trading System http://bit.ly/faRk7g
Short QQQQ 58.44 Stop 59.60 Target 56
Record Spread in Oils! WTI - Brent $16
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=21
Entered today: Short QQQQ 58.44 Stop 59.60 Target 56 http://bit.ly/fcH5hb
Market is 30% overvalued based on P/E
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9
Stocks, Bonds or Commodities in 2011?
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7
What's Driving Market: Quantitative Easing or Great Earnings
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=8
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6
Why Am I Not Surprised Market Jumped Since Jan 28
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5
Model Porfolio: Inflation Protection & Safety Bonds and GLD
http://carnalstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3
2011 Market Predictions From Pros
Welcome to this board! I hope you will enjoy it and will come back often ;)
hi,
a friend of mine knows how to analyze Elliott. he does an analysis for me once in a while
Apple (AAPL) Elliott Wave Analysis
Analysis of Apple stock price is not very congruent within the methodology I am using, however I am intrigued by the stock behavior. It does not look hopeless either and therefore I decided to watch it for a while more closely.
NOTE: the main inconsistency is related to the starting point of the impulsive structure which does not fit well with the general pattern for US stocks. The impulse starts in 1997 rather than in 1987. This may imply some limitations for the projected time and price zones in the long time frame.
Trading Strategy
No trading yet. Just get some feel on how the stock behaves in the context of Elliott Analysis.
Elliott Analysis
Long term:
The corrective pattern for the price action has finished and now the price is in the Wave (III) of the Supercycle degree Impulse that is expected to complete in the price range 45.72 to 225.55, but more probably between 51.65 and 97.32. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 30-Dec-2011, but is most likely to complete before 12-Nov-2008.
Then expect the stock to pull back into wave (IV), which will be corrective in nature and has a probability of 84% of being a Flat or other sideways pattern. Wave (IV) should not retrace back into the price range of wave (I) or (II). After wave (IV), expect wave (V) to move beyond the end of wave (III) to complete this Impulse.
Medium term:
The price is in the Wave III of the Cycle degree Impulse which should complete in the price range 53.82 to 142.84, but more probably between 59.68 and 92.08. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 31-Jan-2007, but is most likely to complete before 05-Jun-2006. Then expect the stock to pull back into wave IV, which will be corrective in nature After wave IV, expect wave V to move beyond the end of wave III to complete this Impulse which will also complete Wave (III) of the Supercycle degree Impulse (long term).
Short term:
Wave 3 of the Primary degree Impulse is expected to complete in the price range 57.96 to 107.41, but more probably between 61.25 and 77.91. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 22-Feb-2006, but is most likely to complete before 21-Dec-2005.
Shorter time frame forecast is rather uncertain. Probably the price is in the Wave 5 and it will complete in the price range 60.36 to 89.56, but more probably between 63.81 and 72.92. This wave was expected to complete before 17-Nov-2005 and must complete by 2-Dec-2005. When completed, it will also complete wave 3 of the higher degree pattern. Taking into account that previous correction waves were relatively short both in time and price ranges, we should expect extended correction patterns for waves 4. They may provide low risk opportunities for trading within the price channels.
C (Citigroup) forecast using Elliott Waves
Trading Strategy
According to the preferred scenario, the stock has further potential to rise and probably one could even pull some profit out of such a move, however, if the outlook is correct, this growth may suddenly change into the sharp decline of the price.
1. Unless the market will provide a good opportunity to enter long in the nearest one or two weeks, we will wait for the completion of the current wave and opening short position.2. Watch the stock behavior on daily basis.
3. Should the price rich 52.88 than it means that current outlook is totally wrong.
C outlook
Long term
C is still in the correction Wave II of the Grand Supercycle degree Impulse which is expected to complete in the price range 1.54 to 48.18, but more probably between 25.12 and 43.35. This wave is expected to complete before 04-May-2005, and must complete by 14-Oct-2033. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue up into wave III. Wave III should always be an Impulse and should retrace wave II completely.
Medium Term
In the medium term the stock is most likely in the Wave (c) of the Supercycle degree Flat which should be the impulsive wave that is expected to complete at a price no higher than 41.24, but more probably no higher than 25.56. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 04-Jul-2014, but is most likely to complete before 04-Apr-2006. In the shorter term we observe development of the Wave II of the inverted Impulse which is expectedto complete in the price range 43.39 to 52.88, but more probably between 44.47 and 48.13. This wave was expected to complete before 31-Dec-2004, and must complete by 02-Jun-2006. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue down into wave III, corrective wave IV and final wave V which will complete the Wave (c) and the Wave II of the Grand Supercycle.
Note: that corrective flat pattern is interchangeable with double 3 and they are different only with respect to the final wave that should be corrective for double three and impulsive for the flat. The target price range is quite similar for both patterns, however considering double 3 as an alternative may give slightly different scenario in the short term.
Short Term
Currently the stock is in the Wave c of the inverted Flat. It is expected to complete in the price range 44.29 to 57.13, but more probably between 47.74 and 53.15. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 19-Jul-2007, but is most likely to complete before 06-Feb-2006. This wave will also complete Wave II of the higher order (Medium term). Wave c ought to be an impulse and now C is in the Wave 3 of the Impulse and it is expected to complete in the price range 46.57 to 52.88, but more probably between 46.97 and 50.73. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 07-Feb-2006, but is most likely to complete before 25-Nov-2005.
Note: if the alternative scenario with double three is considered, the stock is in the high probability zone of the wave d of the contracting triangle and it means that it may change the direction into the wave e any time. This would be the final wave which will complete D3.
AMGN Elliott Wave Update
Trading Strategy
1. Move stop loss to 78.5 to lock in 50% of the profit.
2. Watch closely AMGN behavior during the week - although it has a potential for further growth, the stock is in the overbought territory and one can not exclude correction in the nearest future.
3. If the stop loss is hit we will update the outlook.
AMGN outlook
Apparently, we observe Scenario 2 in progress with the potential target area at least above 85.4 and likely above 92. At this moment there is no solid background for more accurate forecast of price target zones. In the very short term a mild correction is possible during the next week. Depending on the price action we will either keep our long position open or will exit by locking 50% of profits and will seek for an opportunity to re-enter long again at lower price.
AMGN (Amgen) Elliott Wave forecast
Trading strategy:
We entered long on 31-Oct-2005 at 75.96. Since then the stock went down to 73.84 and then closed at 79.19 at the end of the week.
1. Move stop loss to break even at 75.96. Leave take profit at 99.90.
2. When the price moves below 72.37 resistance, enter short at 72.30 withthe stop loss 73.20 and profit target 58.0.
3. Follow the market and define which scenario is in development.
4. If the market hits the stop loss, we will update the trading plan.
Amgen outlook:
The outlook for this stock has not much changed since last weekend. Perhaps bullish scenarios have become more probable. However, the price is still in the high probability range of the correction wave 2 of the inverted impulse and it may go down in the nearest future. Although the price is already outside the high probability time range for correction wave 2, it still potentially has about two months to complete.
for the previous forcast, see my preceding post.
dew,
actually, I don't think I have ever considered your idea that provenge could be sold to somebody else. I don't know who the buyer could be. I can only raise another question in return.
let's see... if somebody with my stance on provenge had a choice to start provenge development from scratch, than it would not be worth it. But, dendreon did absorb the cost so far, so there could be some value in provenge at this moment. basically my question is: what could provenge be worth if sold to some company today? the identity of the would-be buyer(s) could be related to the price tag on provenge today.
I don't know how much they have spent on provenge. it is somewhat academic, but at the end of the day one would like to know the expenses on development to judge the financial success.
Is Dendreon worth more without Provenge?
This is perhaps a startling thought to many people. But while I do find it provocative, it is perhaps not very far-fetched and has its merits. Of course, if one believes that Provenge is a guaranteed blockbuster than the thought is simply absurd. But if one takes what I consider a more realistic view that the path to Provenge’s success is extremely difficult then, perhaps, getting rid of Provenge is not such a bad idea.
Dendreon is burning close to 100 million dollars per year, with most of the money going to Provenge clinical trials, building manufacturing facilities for Provenge, preparing the sales force for Provenge, etc. Provenge, Provenge, Provenge – everything else seems to be on the back burner. While the company still has cash at the moment, it is running out of it fast. In fact, the money will have to be raised sometime in 2006, before or soon after the launch of Provenge. Dendreon will likely to be starving for cash till 2008 before the money from the Provenge sales may start trickling down. And what if the trickle is very meager? Two-three years from now new cheaper drugs could well outcompete Provenge and reduce it to a fancy expensive drug with limited patient base. There are several competitors that could bring their drugs relatively soon after Provenge hits the market. Prostvac-VF from Therion, GVAX from Cell Genesys (CEGE), and DN-101 from Novacea come to mind. While these drugs are likely to be approved after Provenge, they will most likely be much cheaper to produce because they are not custom-manufactured for each patient. With so many drugs targeting the prostate cancer, the ability of a company to deliver drugs that are competitive price-wise could be the most critical for winning a substantial share of the market.
I would go as far as to suggest that the scenario according to which Provenge is not even able to pay for the cost of its own development is quite likely. At the same time, the cash that Dendreon has now could be used to more speedily pursue highly promising Trp8 inhibitors that are currently in the pre-clinical development. ~130M in cash is large enough to push Trp8 program well into phase II clinical trials. It may be unfortunate that the money will be spent on Provenge, a possible money sink with no meaningful return to the shareholders. DNDN should continue to produce good setup for the short-term trader but it may not be such a great play for the long-term investor.
how does tarceva compare to capecitambine? both improve survival and are given in combo with gemcitabine.
hxxp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/02/AR2005110201942.html
How soon will we see antagomirs in the clinic? Is Alnylam a Buy?
Are antagomirs the best compounds that could be practical for treating multiple human diseases? Could companies like Alnylam (ALNY) initiate first clinical trials using antagomirs relatively soon? I believe the answers to both questions are yes.
The paper published a couple of days ago by the scientists from Alnylam, the Rockefeller, and NY University (see the abstract below) provides perhaps the most convincing evidence from animal studies that RNAi-related approaches could be practical for treating multiple human diseases. While the experiments were done in mice, there is little doubt that the approach could be tailored to humans. Two points in the paper are critical. First, there is very specific and potent inhibition of the targeted miRNAs. Second, the application of the “drug”, antagomir, delivered via simple intravenous injection, affected most tissues in the animals. Both the amounts of antagomirs introduced and the delivery method (intravenous injection) are likely feasible for humans.
When could the first clinical trials be initiated in humans? Now that there is an antagomir tool to knock down miRNAs, what we need are target miRNAs that could be involved in human diseases. While there are many protein coding genes known or suspected to be involved in various diseases, almost nothing is known about miRNAs in this respect. But, this is going to change were quickly via research in the academia and the industry. There are already examples of miRNAs implicated in cancer. For instance, miRNA let-7 is a suspected tumor suppressor. Knocking out a tumor suppressor won’t stop cancer. So other miRNAs that are required for cancer survival and not cancer suppression are needed. I am sure the research to locate such miRNAs is in high gear already. We will probably see the first clinical trials using antigomirs in the 1-2 years.
Simple calculation shows that the antagomir dose used on mice (80 mg/kg) translates to about 6 g/injection for an adult person. Now, with 6 g/dose what could be the price tag to synthesize compounds like antagomirs? Antagomir synthesis is essentially the same as synthesis of modified RNA oligonucleotides. My estimates are that antagomirs could cost around 1000$/g or 6,000$/dose for humans. So, even if the drug’s effect could last around a month like in mice, the medicine is still pricey. Of course, the price should come down as the scale of the synthesis is increased but I still see the expensive price of synthesis as a potential problem for commercialization of antagomir-base therapies.
Nature. 2005 Oct 30; [Epub ahead of print]
Silencing of microRNAs in vivo with 'antagomirs'
Krutzfeldt J, Rajewsky N, Braich R, Rajeev KG, Tuschl T, Manoharan M, Stoffel M.
Laboratory of Metabolic Diseases, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue,
New York, New York 10021, USA.
MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are an abundant class of non-coding RNAs that are believed to
be important in many biological processes through regulation of gene expression.
The precise molecular function of miRNAs in mammals is largely unknown and a
better understanding will require loss-of-function studies in vivo. Here we show
that a novel class of chemically engineered oligonucleotides, termed
'antagomirs', are efficient and specific silencers of endogenous miRNAs in mice.
Intravenous administration of antagomirs against miR-16, miR-122, miR-192 and
miR-194 resulted in a marked reduction of corresponding miRNA levels in liver,
lung, kidney, heart, intestine, fat, skin, bone marrow, muscle, ovaries and
adrenals. The silencing of endogenous miRNAs by this novel method is specific,
efficient and long-lasting. The biological significance of silencing miRNAs with
the use of antagomirs was studied for miR-122, an abundant liver-specific miRNA.
Gene expression and bioinformatic analysis of messenger RNA from
antagomir-treated animals revealed that the 3' untranslated regions of
upregulated genes are strongly enriched in miR-122 recognition motifs, whereas
downregulated genes are depleted in these motifs. Analysis of the functional
annotation of downregulated genes specifically predicted that cholesterol
biosynthesis genes would be affected by miR-122, and plasma cholesterol
measurements showed reduced levels in antagomir-122-treated mice. Our findings
show that antagomirs are powerful tools to silence specific miRNAs in vivo and
may represent a therapeutic strategy for silencing miRNAs in disease.
PMID: 16258535 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
the management are getting paid, aren't they? if the stock perfoms too poorly they may be let go sooner rather than later.
AMGN (Amgen) forecast using Elliott Waves.
Consider this forecast as an attempt to develop a trading approach based on the Elliott wave theory. Keep in mind that the future can not be predicted. Be skeptic about any forecasts.
AMGN possible Trading Strategy:
Since the outlook is bullish long term and short term (except Scenario 3), the following trading strategy seems reasonable.
1. Enter market at open 31-Oct-2005 (if the price above 72.37). Stop loss 72.30. Take profit 99.90.
2. If the price moves below 72.37 resistance, enter short at 72.30 with the stop loss 73.20 and profit target 58.0.
3. Follow the market and define which scenario is in development.
4. It is important to watch AMGN pattern closely in the next 2-3 days to minimize losses if a long positition is open but Scenario 3 will tend to be the real scenario.
Detailed Elliott Analysis for AMGN:
The stock is at an interesting point when three alternative scenarios may unfold in the nearest future.
1. AMGN accomplished a correction pattern in July 2002 and since then it is in the third impulsive wave. In the long term it is expected to complete in the price range 93.40 to 474.41, but more probably between 104.81 and 198.79. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 17-Jan-2017, but is most likely to complete before 13-Apr-2011. Medium term - wave (III) of the third wave is expected to complete in the price range 77.66 to 233.29, but more probably between 86.05 and 128.83. This wave could complete anytime between now and 15-Jan-2008, but is most likely to complete sometime between 22-Jul-2005 and 01-Dec-2006. In the Short term, AMGN just finished correction wave on October 21 and it is about to rise sharply to the target area of the Medium term forecast. If the price falls below the high on 15-Jul-2003 - 72.37, then this scenario will become invalid. (Scenario 1)
2. AMGN still in the correction stage. In the long term, wave (b) of the Flat had already entered high probability price range and outside the high probability time range, which means that time is running out for this wave. It is expected to complete in the price range 64.48 to 160.73, but more probably between 65.47 and 90.91. This wave was expected to complete before 09-Nov-2004, and must complete by 01-May-2015. After wave (b) is complete, expect the market to continue down into wave(c), which should be a five wave Impulsive pattern. It will complete flat pattern and corrective wave II of the Grand Supercycle degree Impulse in the price range .08 to 69.99, but more probably between 35.43 and 62.76. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 14-Apr-2038, but is mostlikely to complete before 18-Nov-2005. After this wave II is complete, expect the market to continue up into wave III. In the Medium term, wave (y) of the inverted Double Zigzag is expected to complete in the price range 88.36 to 153.85, but more probably between 88.99 and 117.89. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 06-Dec-2007, but is most likely to complete before 12-May-2006. Wave (y) will probably complete this Double Sharp pattern, although it couldpossibly extend into a Triple Sharp pattern. However the shorter term view provides two possible outlooks:
a) Short term correction is finished and the new bullish move is expected tocomplete in the price range 100.18 to 122.88, but more probably between100.65 and 113.02. This wave is most likely to complete sometime between 05-Dec-2005 and 26-Apr-2006 Note that it cannot complete until 25-Nov-2005 but must complete by 14-Sep-2006. This wave will probably complete the Double Zigzag pattern. (Scenario 2)
b) the wave (y) was already completed on 20-Sep-2005 and since then we have observed the first impulsive wave of the higher order Flat. Currently AMGN is in the wave 2 of the inverted Impulse which is expected to complete in the price range 74.78 to 86.92, but more probably between 77.12 and 81.95. This wave is due to complete anytime from now until 06-Jan-2006, but is most likely to complete before 31-Oct-2005. After this wave 2 is complete, expect the market to continue down into wave 3. Penetration through the resistanceat 72.37 should support this scenario. (Scenario 3)
So, Dew, do you expect DNDN selling off hard on Monday given your sentiment towards the data and the stock run-up last week? Thanks