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Lets face it: It used to be VERY EASY to predict where ACB was going.
From March 2019 to a few days ago - if you said "DOWN" - you would be right 90% of the time.
Don't believe me? (Just look at the 1 Year Chart).
However, now with Corona and 2/3 of the World Shut-Down, the game has changed (in case someone hasn't noticed).
The DOW took an 11,000 Point Correction in a matter of WEEKS. We will probably never see that again. (Or at least I hope I never do).
World Economies are on the brink and about 2-3 Million Americans are already laid-off and applying for Unemployment. These Lay-Offs happened almost all at once (not over time) and they hit ALL INDUSTRIES.
So my point is: These ARE NOT normal Market Conditions by any stretch of the imagination.
If you want to see volatility - the DOW is up 2,000 Points one day, Down 2,000 Points the next day. These are some of the largest swings EVER.
So what does this mean for ACB's Share Price? No one really knows. It is a "guess" at best right now.
But I can say that Curaleaf's Earning's Report was very BULLISH for the Overall Cannabis Sector due to increased Cannabis consumption due to Corona.
I also like the fact that the Cannabis Sector has been beaten down sooooo much...that these valuations actually look attractive in the light of INCREASED DEMAND DUE TO CORONA.
I said it 10 times so far: CORONA CAN SAVE THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY.
Well Well...
You know what would be interesting to see?
A time where ACB keeps going UP - while the rest of the Cannabis Sector is going DOWN.
I really don't think I have ever seen a single day where ACB was UP and the rest of the Cannabis Sector was DOWN.
Tilray closed up 56% today. Aurora up 20%.
You can tell when you have a winning Company in a Sector when it shines above it's peers.
OGI and Canopy release great ER's - And it makes ACB go UP with them.
ACB releases Earnings - And it drags the whole Cannabis Sector DOWN.
So lets not pretend that ACB is a Market Mover.
Or if ACB is a Market Mover - it has been in the WRONG DIRECTION.
Taking Profit is a smart move.
If I am really into a specific Stock or Sector, I usually don't buy all at once and I usually don't sell all at once.
I mean, if my target is to own 100,000 shares of a stock, I usually buy in 10,000 block increments. Same holds true when I sell.
That way, you are still locking in profits when you sell some shares (and you have cash) - but you also have some shares remaining in case it keeps going up.
After Hours doesn't mean Jack.
But I hope this day does repeat itself over and over and over and over.
If the Cannabis Sector becomes extremely volatile, I might flip some shares.
But the Cannabis Sector (and ACB) hasn't been that volatile over the past year. Instead, it has been mostly down, down, down, down. And it is impossible to flip for a profit with so much downward momentum.
There needs to be an equal amount of up days in between down days to make it worth it.
But if there is an up day, followed by a down day, followed by an up day - that pattern can make money.
Buy Red, Sell into strength, Buy Red, Sell into Green, Buy Red...
But we'll see. One day does not make a Trend or Pattern.
If 2019 taught the Cannabis Investors anything - it should have taught them that investing in Cannabis is far from a "Slam Dunk" or "No Brainer".
Don't get me wrong - today was a great day for the Cannabis Sector and I hope we have many, many, many more days like today.
However, the Cannabis Sector is still facing the same headwinds that were there yesterday. Banking, Capitalization, Profits, etc.
But per Curaleaf's ER and CEO - Demand and Sales are up due to Corona.
In a World full of failing businesses due to Corona (Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants, etc) - it is good to be in a Sector that is Positively Affected by the Corona National Emergency.
For Example: Every time there is a Hurricane in Florida - I buy Home Depot. People need to board up their houses before the Hurricane - and they need to rebuild after the Hurricane. So Home Depot usually is a winner when a Hurricane hits.
And if Cannabis is positively affected by Corona - who am I to argue. I'll take it!!
That's good to hear.
These past 2 weeks have been some tough waters to navigate unscathed.
When Panic Selling happens, the Market throws the "Baby Out With The Bathwater" and the MM's sell things they shouldn't be selling - at prices they shouldn't be selling at.
I picked up some REITS for $4.79 a share that were trading at $18 prior to Corona with a 12% Dividend. They bounced back to $8/Share this week and are showing a 33% Dividend right now (due to the low sales price).
You just can't beat deals like that.
There is no better place to be when a Stock Market Crashes than in Cash. Everything is on sale. Dividend Stocks usually recover first, then after the Market levels off - speculation will begin again.
Yeah, I know. That is why ACB is under $1 right now.
Before Canadian Legalization, ACB was trading on News, Seeking Alpha Articles, and Rumors of Big Deals. That is why ACB skyrocketed to $13/Share.
But after Legalization, investors had ACB's Financial Statements to base their Buy, Hold, and Sell Decisions on - and obviously, most of them did not like ACB's Financial Position. Thus, ACB is under $1 today.
I do like the Bullish moves I am seeing in the Cannabis Sector over the past few days.
Curaleaf's CEO is saying that sales are up over 20% due to Corona. That is a huge Catalyst to the Cannabis Sector.
I mean, right now, the Money Managers are looking for Sectors that are either un-affected by Corona or they are looking at Sectors that Corona is actually HELPING Sales.
And it appears that Corona is helping Cannabis Sales. So the MM's will pour into Cannabis in hopes of salvaging 2020.
It is still early. The next couple weeks will tell the true story.
VFF is announcing Earnings next Tuesday and lets hope they sing the same song as Curaleaf just did.
I don't buy the "It Just Takes Time" or "Be Patient" Scenarios.
The people that bought at $10 and were "Patient" got rewarded with a 63 Cent Stock Price a few days ago.
The question of the day is: With Millions of people Unemployed, will they smoke more weed? Or not?
One argument is that the Unemployed are sitting at home - so they have plenty of time to smoke weed.
However, if Companies are doing drug tests - maybe people won't smoke as much because they are interviewing for a new job?
But most of the Unemployed are in the Restaurant and Hotel Industry - and that is a good demographic of Cannabis Users.
Also, I use the term "ACB Long-Long" for people that CANNOT change their minds about ACB regardless of the facts & circumstances presented.
"ACB Long-Longs" were pumping ACB for the past year even though I was watching ACB steadily tick down from $10 to 63 Cents everyday.
Personally, I find that not being able to change one's mind as the facts change to be silly.
For Example: I was long ACB up until $10 - and then I changed my mind as the facts changed.
If I had not changed my mind at $10, I would be sitting on ACB shares worth about 93 Cents today.
There is no doubt about that.
Maybe with Cam & Terry "out of the way" - Nelson can bring in some BIG $$$ PARTNERS to shore-up ACB's Balance Sheet with some much needed Cash.
I've posted a lot about "Game Changing Catalysts" for ACB over the past year and a Big $$$ Partner is one of the Catalysts.
The Long-Longs have been starring at their screens for the past year hoping that a "Game Changing Catalyst" would happen for ACB - but it hasn't so far (that is why ACB went from $10 to 63 Cents).
The only problem is: Corona is causing liquidity issues and the Big Companies are laying people off. So if ACB could not secure a Big Deal with the Market was booming - I'm not sure if they can do it in a Recession.
But we will see. Anything can happen.
I really never dreamed that I would be working from home due to a World Wide Pandemic. If you would have told me this 6 months ago - I would have laughed. But here I am.
Yep. And they usually take even more profits the next day.
But I like to sell shares on the way up.
If you are selling on the way up and making $$$ - that is the name of the game.
When we do finally beat Corona, and everyone has a $1,200 check from Trump in their pockets - I just hope they go to the local dispensary and buy some weed.
I can really see people doing that with their $1,200.
I was long the Hotel and Airline Industry also.
The Economy was booming, people had extra money to spend, why not travel?
Should I not change my mind now that the Corona Pandemic has hit?
"I am allowed to change my mind as facts, data, & circumstances change" is a famous quote by the Economist Keynes.
Actually he said: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
So when Corona hit - I am no longer Bullish on the Airlines and Hotels. I am now Bearish on these industries.
Why the sudden switch? I dunno - maybe the fact that NO ONE is flying?
Just like these Nation Wide Lock-Downs. No one would have predicted that a World Wide Pandemic would force people to stay inside 24/7 and they would smoke more Cannabis.
But if that is the case. I'll take it. I still own a lot of VFF, OGI, and APHA.
Now regarding ACB: From a Financial Standpoint - there are much better Cannabis Stocks to own than ACB. I've been saying that all along and so have all the analysts. But do your own Due Diligence - it is your money.
The next few weeks will tell the real story.
The Shorts (and Longs) read Curaleaf's Earnings Report and the Shorts are probably running for cover (at all costs).
Curaleaf reported greatly increased sales due to Corona and the logic is: All Cannabis Companies will also have greatly increased sales due to Corona.
We saw this same effect when OGI Reported great sales and jumped 43% in one day and the rest of the Cannabis Stocks jumped up along with OGI.
Canopy had a great ER also - and they brought ACB up for a while with it.
The problem is: Curaleaf's Financials and Canopy's Financials ARE NOT ACB's Financials.
So even though the entire Cannabis Sector is up today. All Cannabis Companies ARE NOT the same.
Very true.
However, I am the exact opposite of that.
I scrutinize every buy and entry point (this is the only thing I can really control).
And I have no trouble selling.
In fact, I always sell some shares when I see strength like this.
And if the Cannabis Stocks keep rallying - I'll sell some more shares.
I buy in the dumpster and sell on the rallies.
But some people buy on the rallies (for FOMO) and sell in the dumpster - that is backwards.
Cash is King.
I am allowed to change my mind as FACTS, DATA, & CIRCUMSTANCES CHANGE.
Please refer to my posts from last week concerning how: CORONA CAN SAVE THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY.
I wrote it in bold in my post last week so people will remember it.
MX -
I've been trying to tell you to buy puts for the past year.
Or was I too criptive with my Bearish Posts?
When ACB was trading at $8, the $7 puts were dirt cheap.
Imagine owning $7 puts when ACB is trading at 70 Cents?
It is easy to say that.
But the truth is: Some Cannabis Companies will make it - and some Cannabis Companies wont.
The Black Market is still out there.
But lets hope that Corona puts the Cannabis Companies in the Black (Positive EBITDA) and lets hope they stay there.
Actually, the Entire Stock Market is way Oversold due to Corona.
Cannabis Stocks were in the Tank before Corona - and Corona drove them down even further.
This is starting to look like one big short squeeze - the demand for Cannabis stocks are up due to Curaleaf's ER and the increase in demand for Cannabis due to being locked inside.
So the shorts are getting what they deserve today. Stick it to them!
Actually, the Entire Stock Market is way Oversold due to Corona.
Cannabis Stocks were in the Tank before Corona - and Corona drove them down even further.
This is starting to look like one big short squeeze - the demand for Cannabis stocks are up due to Curaleaf's ER and the increase in demand for Cannabis due to being locked inside.
So the shorts are getting what they deserve today. Stick it to them!
Yep. Everyone trades differently.
Personally, when I stock jumps more than 10% in one day - I usually sell some and take profits.
This Rally could be just one big short squeeze.
When stocks pop like this - they usually sell off just as fast.
Ben Graham wrote "The Intelligent Investor" and it is Warren Buffet's favorite book.
Ben Graham says: When your speculative stocks pop - sell some.
Pigs get fat - hogs get slaughtered.
I'm taking some profits today - because tomorrow - who knows.
Cash is king.
Uh, I did post that LAST NIGHT didn't I?
Also: Please reread my posts about CORONA COULD SAVE THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY.
But the truth is: ACB has been dismal even with today's pop. I mean, look at the 1 year chart. That is UGLY and today's pop doesn't even show up.
ACB was trading at $2 before legalization. So I hope they can get back to at least $2/Share sometime soon.
We will see...
Yep CP! You were right again last night. ACB is popping!
It has a lot to do with the following factors:
1) The Cannabis Companies were way oversold to begin with.
2) People are Consuming A LOT more Cannabis due to being locked inside due to Corona.
3) Curaleaf had a great ER that showed huge Revenue increases.
4) People turn to Cannabis to cope in times of high anxiety and stress.
5) Trump could take Cannabis off of Schedule 1 to create JOBS.
https://mugglehead.com/curaleaf-reports-record-q4-bucks-recent-trends-with-hiring-spree/
When I posted that Article about Curaleaf's ER last night - I think the comment that stuck-out the most was that Cannabis was "Corona Positive".
Meaning that Corona has a positive effect on Cannabis Sales.
Curaleaf is actually HIRING PEOPLE right now.
I'm telling ya, Trump wants JOBS and Cannabis creates JOBS.
I can really see where Trump could take Cannabis off of Schedule 1.
Also, when the Corona OutBreak is over - the States are going to be in dire straights Financially (Record Unemployment, etc) - so the State will turn to Legal Cannabis for Revenues.
New York is on the top of the list. If New York legalizes - that is 11 Million People in New York City alone.
Huge Revenues!!
I am a Cannabis Bull again!! Go Cannabis Go!!
https://mugglehead.com/curaleaf-reports-record-q4-bucks-recent-trends-with-hiring-spree/
When a stock jumps 27% in one day - I usually sell some to lock into profits.
Or MX can coach you on buying some Put Options to insure your gains.
ACB looked like it was going to pop - and it did!
I hope Randy Newman does scare the shorts out of the Cannabis Sector!!
This pop is happening across my board. My VFF is up over 20% right now and my MedMen is popping at 27%!
Let's hope this is the shape of things to come!!
Trump really could take Cannabis off of Schedule 1 (if the Post-Corona Economy is bad enough).
Trump LOVES nothing more than a Healthy Economy.
And the Cannabis Sector means JOBS!!!
MX - Thanks!!
Chicago is in total lock-down. I mean, the streets are empty. So the chances of me catching are extremely low.
But I do have a ton of Cannabis Cookies, Brownies, and Banana Muffins in the Freezer. So I'll probably switch to Edibles just to be on the super safe side.
Thanks!!
Boom Boom Shaka!! I do like days like this!!
My REITS are popping like crazy. Up 33% this morning and the market is only up 3% Overall. The REITS are paying crazy dividends right now too. Up 33% with a 38% Dividend.
Break-Out the Dance Music!!
Corona saved the Cannabis Industry!! Yippie!!
They did a survey regarding what people like to do when they are isolated and alone.
Very few in the survey said they turned to Alcohol as a coping mechanism. Alcohol tends to just make you more sad and depressed.
However, the Survey found that Cannabis was used a lot when people are home alone. With Cannabis - you can have FUN doing anything.
I love smoking a bowl of GSC and cleaning the house, or going for a walk, or doing anything.
Certain strains of Cannabis even fight depression (and people are stressed right now).
So I can see why Corona is increasing Cannabis Sales.
When you are high, watching TV is fun. Everything is fun. And Cannabis is cheap in Canada.
If the World goes into a Recession or Depression because of Corona - Cannabis will be the #1 Vice of choice (just like Alcohol was during the Great Depression).
Things are popping today - that is for sure. I love the color GREEN!!
MX -
It sounds like you have a great investment strategy.
I am seeing lots of green across my board today and I like it!!
Lets make some $$$$ !!!
ACB is like a Canary in a Coal Mine.
If ACB is up 9% - that means APHA, OGI, and VFF are up 16%.
That is one of the reasons I like following ACB. If people are buying ACB - then they are REALLY BUYING the Cannabis Companies with the solid Financials.
Like I said (repeating myself): CORONA CAN SAVE THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY!
I know I am repeating myself: But CORONA MAY ACTUALLY SAVE THE CANNABIS INDUSTRY.
Curaleaf just reported greatly improved Sales due to Corona.
And if one Cannabis Company is selling more weed - that is a good indicator that they all are.
I hope just hope this rally keeps going. OGI, VFF, and APHA are still way undervalued.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/covid-19-a-net-positive-for-marijuana-producer-curaleaf-says-analyst-2020-03-25
Yep. ACB could pop soon. Lots of Options Activity...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-aurora-cannabis-125112740.html
MX -
You are playing the Options so I can see why you do not have the same concerns as the Common Shareholders who actually OWN the Company.
All you really care about is that ACB reaches a certain selling price at a certain point in time.
If ACB does reach that selling point - then your BET will pay off and then you are onto the next Option Trade.
If ACB doesn't reach that selling point - then your BET will not pay off and you are onto the next Option Trade.
So I can see why you are not concerned about: Financial Statements, Analysts Downgrades, Dilution, Cash Crunches, CEO Firings, Insiders dumping shares, etc.
All you really want is your BET to pay-off.
However, please be aware that some investors actually do care about these things because they are OWNERS of the Company.
Yep. I agree.
Maybe that is why Insiders are Bailing?
Think of it this way:
IF ACB was such a great stock to own.
Then WHY is DELISTING even a topic?
Does Apple or Google discuss what they are going to do about Delisting?
Nope - That is because Apple and Google are great Companies.
ACB - Not so much.
We all know that ACB's 1.1 Billion Shares Outstanding are too many shares.
And we also know that ACB is a Penny Stock.
So what do you do when you have too many shares outstanding and your stock is trading for pennies?
Never say never.
There are A LOT of Board Members that thought ACB would never see 70 Cents again.
But here we are.
I just wish I would have bought more OGI. It is up 15% again today.
If the Economic Downturn due to the Corona Outbreak is severe enough - it could put pressure on Trump (and other Countries) to legalize Recreational Cannabis.
I mean, if the US Economy slides into Depression - the US will need every JOB it can get.
Plus, the Spin to Trump is: If America grows it's own Cannabis Legally - then we will no longer need to import it from the drug dealers in Mexico.
JOBS and less drugs coming across the border from Mexico - Sounds like a winner to me.