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I was being sarcastic in my post.
There is no short squeeze coming.
Think about this: How solid is you investment in ACB when you are praying for a short squeeze to make the Share Price go higher?
When you are investing in a good stock - you don't have to pray for a short squeeze.
And no - the shorts are not toast. The shorts are RICH because of ACB.
The Long-Longs are the ones that are toast.
And by he way, don't believe that "I don't have a loss until I sell BS". If your screen is RED - you have a loss. It is just an unrealized loss.
If you don't like the posts on here. It is very simple. YOU just go away and stay away.
No one is making you read anything.
Player 1234 -
Good response - but I thought mine was more funny.
Have a good weekend.
P.S. - Can't wait to watch next week's Episode of: "The Real Longs of Aurora Cannabis".
I wonder what will happen in next week's Episode?
ATM Dilution?
Reverse Split?
Short Squeeze?
Cash Crunch?
Stay tuned...more drama is guaranteed...
Great Post!!
I am certain the ACB Shorts are shaking in their boots right now.
I mean, if I were short ACB, I would be really concerned about:
- ACB's huge Cash Balance.
- ACB's Partnership with Coca-Cola.
- ACB's Explosive Quarter-Over-Quarter Revenues.
- ACB's Sales into 25 Countries.
I mean, why would anyone ever short such a great stock like ACB?
Personally, I think your $25 Price Target is way too low. If I were you - I wouldn't sell a share until ACB reaches at least $50 a share.
If they are announcing Good News on Monday, it had better be BRAND NEW Good News.
If the news is not absolutely BRAND NEW - then they should have disclosed it a few days ago in the Earnings Report instead.
That said, you are going to hear all kinds of rumors about ACB because the Long-Longs are desperate.
I mean, I think I heard Alberta is going to loan ACB $350 Million (Don't hold your breath).
Coke Deal? (Don't hold your breath either).
If they do announce good news - there are a lot of people with their fingers on the "sell" button for any up-tick.
Cam & Terry created a nightmare mess here - and the Long Shareholders are living the nightmare.
You are making the ASSUMPTION that Nelson Peltz is on the Shareholder's side.
Nelson hired on as a consultant a year ago because Cam & Terry offered him a HUGE sum of MONEY $$$$.
You can ASSUME that Nelson is here to help the poor-old Long-Longs out.
But what if he doesn't give a SH#T about the Long-Longs at all?
What if Nelson is in this for...ready for it...NELSON!!
Billionaires become Billionaires by looking-out for themselves.
Billionaires are in this game to MAKE THEMSELVES RICH (not the Long-Long buying ACB for $1.50 a share and PRAYING that it will go up).
So lets ASSUME that Nelson is in this for himself. What can Nelson get out of ACB?
For Starters - Nelson is working on placing his buddies on the Board. This means Nelson has some Board Votes "In His Pocket".
I'm telling ya. Cam & Terry already got their MONEY $$$ by pulling their Golden Parachutes.
Now watch - Nelson will make MONEY $$$ too.
But then watch who gets screwed in the end (hint: The Shareholders).
Yep.
Cannabis Consumers have choices now.
Before legalization, you basically bought what your dealer had and you were happy.
But now, people can walk-up to the Dispensary Counter, ask to smell the Canopy OG Kush and ask to smell the Aurora OG Kush.
If the Canopy OG Kush is better than the Aurora OG Kush - then Canopy will sell more weed than Aurora.
It's that simple.
Quality matters. Cannabis Customers will go out of their way for GREAT Weed. And every Cannabis User I know has their favorite "go to" strain.
The question is: What is Aurora doing to improve their sales and Brand Loyalty?
Yeah, no kidding.
Compare Aurora's Revenues next to that Trend.
Overall Cannabis Sales are rising (which is what we expect and is great for the Sector).
But while the Market is increasing - ACB's Revenues are decreasing.
Not good...
I like following ACB.
If you think it is like watching paint dry - you haven't been following the news.
-Ousted CEO.
-Ousted COO.
- Running out of Money.
- Nelson stacking the board with his buddies...
I mean, there is a lot happening with ACB.
The only problem is: None of it is good.
Yep. I noticed that weird sideways trading also.
Yesterday, ACB shot up to $1.70 in the morning and didn't deviate from $1.70 for the rest of the day. You could have bought 200 Million Shares and they would have all been at $1.70.
I've never seen a stock trade that perfectly sideways on large volume before.
But like all things related to ACB - I'm sure we'll find-out what is going on - after the fact.
Yep. I know. I noticed that also.
The DOW was down and my screen was green - so that is a nice Bullish Sign also.
IMO. The sell-off of all the Cannabis Companies was way overdone. However, since it was overdone - may investors are now very sheepish because they don't want any more losses from the Cannabis Sector. So the Cannabis Recovery could take years to realize.
Yep! I like it!!
Let's face it: If Aurora can recover - then the rest of the well-run, well-financed, Cannabis Companies will also recover.
So Aurora's recovery is good for EVERYONE.
That doesn't mean Aurora is a good buy. And it doesn't mean that Aurora is well-run or well-financed.
What it means is: If Aurora can recover from the mess Cam & Terry created - then the rest of the good Cannabis Companies: Canopy, OGI, Cron, APHA - should have NO PROBLEM recovering.
So Go Aurora Go!!
DARN IT!! Almost 4 Green Days in a Row!!
But the streak had to end sometime.
Hopefully, a new green streak will start again tomorrow.
The Colorado 2019 Sales are very Bullish for the Cannabis Industry in General.
It takes a while, but eventually the Black Market will get pushed-out and people will become more accepting of Cannabis as they learn more about it.
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/02/18/colorado-marijuana-sales-2019/
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/483534-colorado-saw-record-cannabis-sales-in-2019
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/business/colorado-cannabis-record-sales-2019/index.html
It is becoming very clear that someone big wants ACB to trade at $1.70/Share.
Yesterday, ACB flatlined at $1.70 almost all day long.
Today, someone dumped 2 Million shares and it fought it's way back to $1.70.
So $1.70 seems to be a popular number right now.
I think the Canadian Cannabis Market is worth about $11.5 Billion once fully matured.
I based my math on Colorado Sales in 2019.
5.69 Million People in Colorado.
37.59 Million People in Canada.
Canada has 6.6 Times the Number of people Colorado does.
Colorado sold $1.75 Billion of Cannabis in 2019.
So $1.75 Billion X 6.6 = $11.5 Billion Canadian Cannabis Market.
But the USA Market is HUGE.
USA has 329 Million people.
So using the same math. The USA Cannabis Market is about $101 Billion.
I know. Someone sold 2 Million shares and it went red for a while - but now it is back to green.
So the MM's must really want ACB's Share Price to go up.
This is a Bullish Sign.
We'll have to wait and see if this trend continues - or if there is another big sell-off.
Did you notice how "Flat" ACB was trading yesterday?
I mean, it hit $1.70 and never moved from $1.70 almost all day long.
IMO - The Underwriters of Aurora's At-The-Market (ATM) Offering must have promised Aurora's Management that they would get $1.70 a share or something.
Funny how that just works out that way.
The one thing I learned about ACB Stock is:
If you are showing a PROFIT (Green) - then take it while the taking is good.
Because that green might not be there tomorrow.
Only 25 cents more to go and then the "Cup" will be formed at the $2 Level.
I know. Somehow my comment on "not being able to grow a Tesla in my closet" comparison of the Tech Sector turned into a debate on Home Growing.
But what some people don't realize is: Before 50 days ago - Cannabis consumers in Chicago only had 2 choices:
1) Buy Weed on the Black Market from Drug Dealers.
2) Grow your own.
Those were the two choices we had. That's it.
In fact, I think some people get the Black Market and Home Growing Backwards.
The Black Market and Home Growing are the Incumbents. They have been around for decades.
The "New Kid on the Block" are Recreational Retail Sales.
And in order to knock the incumbents out - they're going to have to come up with something more enticing than $65 1/8ths.
LOL!! Good one!!
Canopy was talking about destroying their excess inventory. They said they would rather destroy it than devalue the Cannabis Market.
That is nothing new though. Burberry destroys their excess clothing inventory took keep the values of their products higher also.
However, it is well known that I am in favor of a Cannabis Dividend instead of destroying good Cannabis for the sake of profits.
A LOT of things can happen in 1 year. That is for sure.
For example: This time last year, ACB was trading at $10/Share.
Now a year later...not so much.
Betting on 2021 and 2022 is way, way, way far off.
Yep. What is the ONE YEAR Return on Investment for Aurora?
I mean, if you just bought 1 share of Aurora a year ago - how much money would you have made?
Or better yet, if you bought ACB earlier in February 2020 (when ACB was trading at $2.20) how much money did you make so far?
There are 2 sides to every trade. So when people are buying at $1.70 - that means someone else is selling.
Now why would people be selling at $1.70?
I mean, ACB is such a good deal - right?
Trend -
There are some people that just seem to ignore detailed analysis (that you provide), Financial Statements, Analysts Downgrades, Common Sense, etc.
The people that ignore these things are called: "Bag Holders".
They will try to tell you a stock is going up because they just want to break-even "someday".
Make no mistake about it: The Long-Longs have lost serious money on ACB Stock.
The smart ones got out when ACB was tanking over the last 11 months. But the not-so-smart ones are waiting and "hoping"...
Actually, ACB was trading at $2.10 just 8 Trading Sessions ago.
So with a $1.93 Average - you have a good chance of getting your money back.
Let's face it: A lot of Longs would just love to get their money back and break-even. A LOT of Longs are never going to see a dime of profit from their ACB Investment.
So "the dream" is to just break-even and get your money back.
For example: The Longs that bought at $8/Share are not in a good place right now.
I have no idea.
It all depends on when they announce the New CEO and who the New CEO is.
There are too many factors at play with Aurora.
For the last 11 months, Aurora has been very predictable. If you guessed "down" you would be right 99% of the time.
But now, ACB is bouncing off a multi-year low.
For reference, ACB traded at $2.10 a share on February 6, 2020. That is just 8 trading sessions ago.
So some speculators are willing to bet that ACB won't go lower at this point. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will go much higher either.
If I have unrealized losses on a stock, I usually don't try to average down. It just doesn't work for me. Instead, I take the money that I would be averaging down with and invest it in something else that is more predictable. There are 100's of thousands of places to invest your money outside of Cannabis.
Taking a Long Position in ACB does make sense in one respect.
The next "perception" Catalyst that I can see is the "New CEO Announcement".
The play is: Buy ACB at $1.70 today - and then just wait until they announce the New CEO.
I'm sure the New CEO will come from a well established Company (like Kraft/Heinz) and the stock will "pop" on the announcement.
The ACB Long-Longs will cheer!! Yippie!! (just like they did when the news of Nelson was announced).
But the key is: That is when you SELL. Sell when they make the announcement.
But timing is everything.
If they don't hire a new CEO before the next ER - then this strategy won't work. Because, well, we know how ACB's ER's have been going...
Yep. 7 Trading Days left until Month End.
If ACB just goes up 20 Cents a day for 7 days straight - then it will reach your $3 price target.
ACB just needs to go up 47 Cents a day for 7 days straight to meet your $5 Price Target.
This could really happen!!
Let's watch and see if it does!!
Cannabis must not be $520 an ounce in Frankfurt.
The question of the day is: Who is selling at $1.71 today?
I'm assuming that Long-Longs are not selling at this low price.
So who could be selling?
Aurora's Management At The Market (ATM)?
Short Sellers?
People that bought at $1.50 and are flipping at $1.71?
Someone is selling. The question is who.
I can see the allure of ACB at $1.70.
I mean, ACB has not traded at $1.70 a share since October 2016.
It is too bad that ACB's Management put ACB's Shareholders in this position to begin with. About $8.5 Billion in Market Cap - down the drain.
But there is "perception" and then there is "reality".
And the "reality" is: ACB sold 1/2 the amount of Cannabis that Canopy did last quarter.
You will see a lot of Seeking Alpha Articles trying to change your "perception" of ACB Stock - but the "reality" is found in the Financial Statements.
You can try and trade on perception - but the shorts are still out there and they are shorting at $1.70 this morning.
What term would you like to use to describe hard-headed people that believe they are correct even though the facts and circumstances clearly have determined that they are not?
I'm 100% for debating the pros and cons.
However, you should see the hateful e-mails I have gotten from the Long-Longs when I said I was selling at $10.
Here is how this works.
A stock goes from $10 to $1.50 in less than a year (and the Long-Longs are determined they are correct).
Then when the stock goes from $1.50 to $1.70 (this proves the Long-Longs were correct all the time!!) Yippie!!
Growing your own weed can be a novelty for some.
For others, it is a viable hobby. It's like gardening, or growing orchids, but with a higher purpose in mind.
It like growing a beautiful rose bush - and then rolling it up and smoking it. LOL!!
Yep. There is no doubt about it. Growing is not for everyone.
However, we are missing the original point.
People can grow if they want to. Growing is a viable option.
However, if I want a Tesla or a Iphone - the only option is to buy one.
So in summary:
Cannabis Consumer have Options.
Iphone and Tesla Consumers do not.
I'm not underestimating a good CEO.
But let's talk about importance.
ACB can go a long time without a CEO. CEO searches usually last more than 6 months.
But how long can ACB last without the GROWERS? 1 Day? 2 Days?
I'm not underestimating the CEO's Position.
But let's talk about importance.
ACB can go a long time without a CEO. CEO searches usually last more than 6 months.
But how long can ACB last without the GROWERS? 1 Day? 2 Days?
Yep. Price is only one of the reasons I choose to grow at home though.
The truth is: Growing Cannabis is one heck of a fun hobby.
Smoking Cannabis might not be addictive - but Growing Cannabis sure is.
Yep. $480 per Ounce. And people are still waiting in lines to pay it.
I can't wait to see Cresco's or Green Thumbs next Earnings Report.
At $480 an ounce - they have to be making a fortune.
AND, they are getting $480/Ounce for "regular" strains that are easy to grow - like Pineapple Express.
When I buy weed at the dispensary, I am usually looking for stuff that is really hard to grow like the Purple Strains or Fruity Pebbles.
Everyone makes a big deal about new CEO's.
But in my opinion - the "Chief Grower" position is much more important.
Aurora has basically 1 product - Cannabis.
Aurora has been doing all fancy finance stuff (ie: Mergers, Acquisitions, Issuing Shares, Hiring Consultants, etc) in order to be the BIGGEST Cannabis Company.
But instead, they should be focused on growing the BEST Cannabis in the World.
If you grow the BEST Cannabis - the world is your Oyster.
People on here have been comparing Aurora to Apple.
Why is Apple so successful?
Answer: People LOVE Apple's Products.
So my point is: Aurora needs to grow weed better than anyone else. Not "as good as" Canopy or OGI - but better.
Competition in the Cannabis Space is going to be 100% about Product Quality going forward.