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to krunk
Don't have PM on this. Not sure what you see on level 2. describe?
I've followed the company since 1995. I currently own a very small number of shares at the pre-split price of about .05. I've no interest in buying more at this point.
I've no idea who would be buying Noah's shares...I don't think it speaks well for impression mg't that he is selling, especially given the circumstances that they obtained under. For me, Noah is tainted (until he proves otherwise) as to integrity having to do with being the beneficiary of strategies that handsomely rewarded him and failed mg't for ruining the company.
DNA has been aware of Alteon sine prior to 1998 when they funded failed trials in Pimagedine and paid for that funding by purchasing floorless convertible preferred shares, which in other hands, would have led to death spiral financing. DNA took a position of benign neglect for years with Alteon, choosing not to increase their investment in the company but doing nothing to hinder their operations. (They could have owned ALT-711 outright, simply by converting all their shares)
They eventually allowed enough of their shares to be cancelled to allow for this "merger" to take place and ended up with a common share interest in the company.
clearly, whatever due diligence they did on the pathway that Alteon pursued with ALT-711 was dead-on, balls accurate, because everything they tried blew up in their face. I wouldn't touch this company until someone, anyone, in the development of medications business gives their pipeline some third part validation by investing money in the development of a product, rather than investing money in the manipulations of the stock, derivatives, arbitrages, etc.
the fact that it is specualtive and it is big risk/big reward...as you say doesn't mean you should ignore facts about the company.
Fact...alagebrium has been around forever. DNA has parternered with Alteon and chose never to fund any research having to do with ALT-711, despite basically owning the entire company in the form of debt that was way more than the market cap. to think that they would suddenly have an about face now, may be possible...but it certainly isn't indicated by anyhitng other than pure unadultered wishful thinking.
Secondly...i've told you, whatever options exist now can be repriced and more can be added at lower price...costing the insider nothing. Can you average down without any risk whatsoever?...they can. don't confuse your financial interests with those of insiders...the strategies that are availbale are highly dissimilar.
And by the way..NO research has ever demontrated clincal efficacy for any indication in ALT-711 beyond pre-clinical and early stage clinical work. There are also safety concerns that were never fully adressed relating to liver tumors, which could once again come to the forefront in a large scale study such as might be needed for CHF.
This company and its Ip were whored around forever with absolutley no-takers except for Berkowitz...who was basically paid to take over the company and trigger the exit clauses and rewards for prior mgt.
the more things change...the more they remain the same.
Their only possiblity of generating any interest in their IP is to continue to self fund skeletal trials on shareholders backs with vulture money...you'll get dilluted out of existence while insiders keep repricing and issuing more options, with no risk to themselves and make themselves whole.
An insider might sell at a gain...somewhere down the road...but a long term private investor never will.
They have no business plan.
Why does Noah keep selling and selling...if patience pays here?
To be fair...I haven't paid very close attention here recently and didn't recall the 2074 study nor the Heart Failure study for Alt-711. Both are very recent...Have they accrued any patients yet?
The other study was the one I was referring to taking place in Israel.
I've been telling you for years....active research is not much more than an illusion at that company.
The only updates they have provided for years, as to their research activities was to say that patient accruals were significantly delayed due to geopolitical tensions in a trial that they elected to conduct in the M.E.
All of the other activities, more or less since 2004-5 seemed to have had to do with helping previous mg't rape the company and introducing new perpetrators of this crime to the victim.
The sham "merger"...the options, the funding...all of it looks to have nothing to do with conducting clinical research which was more or less completely halted several years ago.
Alteon shareholders paid to have their company taken away from them and current shareholders may now do the same thing.
I very specifically warned everybody what mg't would do with options as a way of making their "investment" in this company...no risk to them.
OMG...it should be criminal.
Noah sells shares day after day...he drives this dismally traded stock down and he gets another 260K options?
How are these guys not in jail? Ken should be in the stockade. Noah no bettah.
nothing but an ownership scam for years.
I think it was more than that and i'm not sure what "programmed sel" means in this situation.
Looks like a market order for about 60K shares (or about 1/3 of holdings) was entered and it was sold off at whatever price was bid...bringing the PPS down with it.
A 60K sell order on this stock, given its daily volume is huge. Keep in mind...pre-split, that's about 3 million shares
Berkowitz selling stock like wild.
See the form 4's.
This has been, is and will continue to be a salary mill for executives...nothing more,nothing less.
Sales as soon as the stock from the latest tranch was registered.
Predictably Ugly and Very Sad.
Thanks. I thought that TRCA was in 2005, but I wasn't paying attention to the fact that the report was based on fiscal and not cal. yr.
That clears it.
Be well.
Wasn't it a simmpler reason than that? Didn't Tercia receive marketing approval in 2005?
Sorry if I got the dates wrong.
Do you happen to know of some companies that DNA has been in development arrangments, strategic alliances or royalty/milestone circumstances where they have bought out the company.
Co-
Has DNA had much of a history of buying companies that it is in development or strategic relationships with?
Sorry...my apologies if I read and understood it wrong.
"Actually the trca press release says that Insmed literally infringed 3 claims of the 414 patent but Tercica's press releases have been less than truthful before this so why should they start now."
So your analysis is that this is a non-issue because you simply are dismissing the PR? Whew! That's a pretty risky way of approaching DD...at least I thnk so.
Patent litigation seems to unfortunately have gone against INSM. Check news on TRCA for details. I would expect a response later today from INSM as they figure how to put the best face on this.
"For short-term trading, you touch you die."
That's been recently true if you only trade from the long side, no?
Increlex is a prior authorization item for Empire Blue Cross, IPLEX not listed yet.
I've asked you politely to let it be and that we should agree to disagree.
I'm asking one more time before this gets personal and volatile.
You seem to harbor some sort of grudge...Apparently i've made more of an imression on you then you have on me...Because i haven't the slightest idea who you are.
I don't agree with your point of view...I maintain what i've said. Just because you feel that you've "called" me onsomething doesn't make you correct. Now let it go!
By the way...the comment of mine which you jumped on, wasn't even addressed to you in the first place.
This is not going anywhere and I really don't want this to become a "Yahooish" interaction so ther comes a time to let it go and agree to disagree...This is clearly that time.
Just because you say something is illogical does not make it so. It is specualtive at this point, to predict a nearly 50% increase in PPS based on the milestone event of a product launch. There are many other factors that could easily have a larger impact on the PPS then simply the demarcation point of beginning to sell this product.
There is always a ramp up time when products launch. Have you calculated or seen cost projections as to the increased burn rate for production, sales and distribution for IPLEX compared to projected revenues for the first year of sales?
If so, please share it here.
This is an orphan product...not a blockbuster. Think of the event of a product launch like a wedding. There might be a bit of fanfare and celebration around the event, but it's only the start.
It was me that used the terms "stunningly speculative". I was referring to the idea that they will not use the shelf offering prior to the product launch and that the PPS is likely to be above $3 when they do.
I continue to hold that opinion.
That is stunningly speculative. Just because IPLEX launches, it does not follow that the PPS goes up.
It may, in fact, go down once costs associated with the launch vs revenues derived from product sales are fully realized. Furthermore, the lower their cash position goes (which it will if they burn on a product launch and clinical trial costs), they will once again be increasingly desperate for cash...on any terms.
Best scenario is when a small biotech can partner for codevelopment so that the partner's profits are ultimately made by the progresss and development of the product...not the gyrations or manipulations of the stock price.
It's standard fare. While any or all of those items may come to pass...that's the reason they are there...it's boilerplate.
Sorry...but no. Orphan drug status relates to a particular indication for which the product is approved...not all future possible indications.
The concept of "orphan" has to do with drug development for limited use treatments...If IPLEX were to eventually be developed for MD,for example, that would hardly be limited use.
Thank you...but when I read your post I realized what I meant to say was to speed up timelines and expand clinical pathways, not expand timelines.
Glad you understood what i meant.
"What am I missing? What are they thinking, and what could be next to blow the roof off this stock and send it rocketing above five so massive instutional buying may take place."
Partnership would provide a huge lift to the stock price due to several factors.
Third party validation of the science from a commercial point of view.
Increased assets to potentially speed up and expand timelines for future indications
Expertise to navigate European regualtions
Increased transparency as to cost of cash.
It would blow the lid off...at least temporarily and then settle back at a somewhat higher level then beofer any partnership anouncement.
"Maybe new coverage coming?"
I'd say that's most likely explanantion. The "news leaking out" conspiracy theorists aren't right too often.
Biggest question for me at the moment is what would most likely derail the momentum?
Probably PIPE before partner scenario.
Not only that...there is a market cap benefit as the stock appreciates in response to the third party validation a partner brings to the science by making an investment in the product rather then on the arbitrage related to the stock.
Also... there is often a benefit in the potential shortening of timelines for further research with the added capital and research infrastructure a partner can bring.
You are treating "note holders" as if they are a single entity.
The best of luck to you...I hope you finance Ivy League for the kids.
So...you had a few percent pullback today. Did you buy?
Just a question for you to think about:
If you are that optimistic about INSM, that you are planning on holding it for the long term, paying off houses, financing educations etc...why are you so concerned about the couple pennies that it might fluctuate? I could understand if you are looking to short term trade this (no problem with that)...but a long term investor?
Bob-
I'm trying to get my hands (and very small brain) around a piece of the science here.
Am I understanding correctly, that any clinical pathway and disease target that is being pursued by either Increlex or Myotrophin is potentially suitable for IPLEX...barring the concerns that would inevitably develop around use patents, etc?
Gary
I think that file was uploaded to the INSMED Yahoo group. I never joined, but if you are a member you can see the PDF file there...or, possibly one of the folks that are members could copy it here?
Don't Cephalon and Chiron have Mytrophin?
Is the issue between them...same compound...different use patents and clinical pathways being pursued?
Can it then be assumed that any research being conducted on Mytrophin is potentially a pathway for Iplex?
I'm sure somebody here will know this immediately.
What's the difference between Increlex and Myotrophin?
Thanks