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"Quite Period". Does anybody know the SEC rule at to the "quite period" before earnings announcements. It's been my understanding that, if a company is going to have a drastic change vis-a-vis prior guidance, they must go public before they enter the "quite period", and I thought this was 15 days prior to scheduled announcement. Therefore, once you get within 15 days of earnings, and you have not had an announcement, you (probably/shouldn't) won't have actual earnings that vary much, up or down, from guidance. Can someone validate or correct the above?? Thanks.
Ike, we're about due for a bounce. What levels of resistance will we have to break through, and hold for two days, to give us any comfort? For these purposes do you ignore intraday movement, and only rely on closing levels? Thank you.
Rise in SEMI book-to-bill points to bottom of slump, say analysts
Semiconductor Business News
(08/22/01 10:14 a.m. EST)
SAN JOSE -- New book-to-bill numbers for North American-based suppliers of semiconductor equipment appear to provide more proof that the downturn has hit bottom, according to analysts reacting to data released on late Tuesday.
Orders for chip production tools grew 5% in July from the previous month at North American-based suppliers, said the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group here. The slight increase in orders coupled with a
continuing decline in tool shipments pushed SEMI's book-to-bill up from 0.56 in June to 0.67 in July (see Aug. 21 story).
The July book-to-bill reading was the third consecutive increase in SEMI's index since the ratio hit its lowest point ever in April at 0.44. While the book-to-bill's rise could be good news for battered chip equipment suppliers, falling shipments underscore the depth of this recession.
Based on a three-month moving average, North American-based suppliers posted a 12% decline in shipments to just $1.14 billion worldwide from $1.29 billion in June. July's shipments were 52% lower than $2.4 billion in the same month last year. Orders were at $764.2 million in July compared to $727.5 million in June, using SEMI's three-month moving average. July's bookings were 74% lower than $2.9 billion in the month last year, said SEMI's Express Report
SEMI officials in San Jose were optimistic but cautious about the gradual rise of the book-to-bill ratio. The new numbers seem to back up a growing consensus that the recession has finally hit a low bottom. The major question, according to observers, is: How long will the bottom last?
Analysts at Prudential Securities Inc. in New York today said the "stabilization" in equipment orders was a "good sign," but they believe a sustainable recovery in bookings is still a few months away.
Frontend equipment orders for July were at $672.5 million, a slight increase over $654.9 million in June, according to the SEMI Express Report, which covers worldwide activities at North American-based suppliers. The book-to-bill for wafer fab frontend tools was at 0.70 in July. In June, the book-to-bill ratio for frontend tools was at 0.60, according to SEMI. A year ago, the frontend equipment book-to-bill stood at 1.28.
Backend chip assembly equipment orders were up significantly in July--$91.7 million vs. $72.6 million, pushing the SEMI book-to-bill for semiconductor packaging tools to 0.53 from a woeful 0.37 in June. A year ago, the backend book-to-bill was above parity at 1.09.
also found in the Wal-Mart announcement:
The retailer said based on a preliminary analysis, customers who cashed their federal income tax rebate checks at Wal-Mart stores were spending about 25 percent of the money there, while customers who cashed the checks at Sam's Club were spending about 80 percent of the money.
1. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. , the world's largest retailer, said on Thursday sales at stores open at least a year, or "same-store" sales, rose 6 percent in July, above its expectations.
2. J.C. Penney Co. Inc. , which operates department stores and the Eckerd drugstore chain, on Thursday said July sales at its department stores open at least a year were above its expectations and rose 2.2 percent from a year
earlier.
The retailer also said it expects earnings for its fiscal second quarter ended July 28 to be slightly better than the analysts' First Call mean estimate. According to Thomson Financial/First Call, analysts pegged JCPenney's second quarter results as a loss equal to 22 cents a share.
On a comparable basis, drugstore sales were also higher than expected and increased 10.0 percent, led by a 12.7 percent increase in pharmacy sales. Front-end same-store sales, which exclude pharmacy sales, were up 4.7 percent from the same month a year earlier.
Total department store sales increased 0.7 percent to $935 million from $929 million last year. Total sales at the company's Eckerd drugstore chain were 8.9 percent higher at about $1.01 billion.
Hi Ike: Enjoyed your post about ignoring the experts. I just keep checking to see if the wind has changed direction. Most of what we all hear is noise. Upgrade, downgrade, upgrade, downgrade. Analyst A, Analyst B. Predictions from talking heads that usually have a vested interest. Blah, blah.
The long term story is the economy will get stronger. Stronger in late 2001, early 2002, mid-2002, I don't know. Interest rates lower still, I don't know.
Does the company you have invested in have good products?, is it still investing in R&D?, does it have cash? If so sleep well. Or trade in and out while the economy goes sideways. The money is in trading and has been in trading for the past 18 months. The risk is being caught on the sidelines once the market turns. So, I'm in some good companies waiting for the turn, and doing a little trading in the meantime.
Kind sir, how about listing your favorite Naz stocks? I'm working on my Naz list, and I will post it soon. Only two I know for sure are ATML and CEGE, both of which have plenty of capital, good management, diverse products, large customer base (actual for ATML and potential for CEGE) and bright futures - just hard to say how long it will take to see a good run. [I'm happy that we stayed above the 1212 and 2040 - next week might be fun for us longs]
Ike: employment numbers in line - looks okay to me.
Lawrence Kudlow is great, isn't he?
Since it's Friday, I expect lower volume and sideways action. Have a nice weekend.
Glad you have cleared this up to your satisfaction, although 99.9% of your followers never believed any of that stuff anyway.
A little antedotal information. Today I played golf with a man who owns a fairly big company that sells machine tool & die equipment, and his primary customers are in the automobile industry. He said that all of his auto mfg customers stopped buying his equipment several months ago, except for repair items, but in the last 2 or 3 weeks they are starting to order again. He feels it was just a long pause in capital spending, but the worm has turned.
Your levels duly noted. Thanks, Ike.
There is a little blood flowing through the veins of the semi's today; apparently the doctor (Joe Osha at Merrill) says they might recover. SOX might make another attempt to 700 level. Looks like we have the 2032 okay, watching the 1212 closely.
Oops, MCLD earnings tomorrow, not today. Sorry.
Ike: Interesting post on ALGX. I have been watching the CLECs fall off the edge - they have all been hit hard. I think the main problem is their burn rate and whether they will run out of $ before they become profitable. Today MCLD, touted to be one of the best managed CLECs, announces earnings, and it should be interesting.
Also, thanks for your rebuttal to the MS speech on global recession.
so far we are above your support level - high for the day 1209.05 - hoping for a little afternoon rally
Ike, I'm an eternal optomist, but I try to read opinions from all sides. I found the following link on the SI board, posted by PMG, and it is interesting, to say the least. I hope you have time to read it and will post a comment for your board. Thanks for the PM regarding trip.
http://www.senate.gov/~banking/01_07hrg/072501/roach.htm
hoping to see more of the followong in the next few months:
"8:24AM Kopin Corp (KOPN) 12.78: CIBC World Markets upgrades to BUY from Hold with an $18 target;
says it appears that Jun qtr was the trough and is expecting 20% sequential growth in both Sep and Dec qtrs.
Briefing.com, Fri. morning "
Ike: How do you rate Jubak? I love ATML and, at some point, it makes sense that GX will be evrybody's favorite. I have not researched the other Jubak picks [all 10 are Amdocs, Atmel, BEA Systems, Brocade, Ciena, First Data, Clobal Crossing, Icos, Siebel Systems, and Telefonica]. Mainly curious as to what you think about Jubak and whether or not he has a big following. Thanks, mon amie [pardon the poor French].
Thanks for the response. I will wait, as you advise. I imagine there is a lot of money on the sidelines, waiting for signals (different signals for different folks). When the sideline money starts coming in, and the shorts start covering - won't that be fun?
Ike: Do you have an opinion on taking a long position on JDSU in the next few days? We assume the stock will be under pressure from Furuwaka selling - also earnings come today, so we would wait to see about that. JDSU has a lot of cash and little debt. I keep wanting to take a position here for a 6 to 12 month trade. Thanks.
Followed you on SI for a long time. Very appreciative of you taking
the time to post your views. You have the amazing ability to see the
support levels and levels of resistance better than most people - one
of your many strengths.
My view is that we will stay sideways and sloppy until semi's turn,
and I hope that will happen before October. My favorite semi is ATML.
Also speculating with a little ASYS and MCLD, but I recognize the high
risk with these plays.
I live in a metropolitan area in Tennessee. Dell has a facility here and HCA
has its headquarters here. I see no signs of economic doom, actually the
opposite. New homes continue to be built. Slightly slower retail sales
and slight increase in office space, but nothing alarming. Auto and truck
sales are off a little, but everyone feels it is "just another cycle" in an
endless series of cycles. General mood is optomistic.
Peace.