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A calculation based on assumptions is an estimation...
This stock continues to amaze me. Just when you thought we had a solid ground, stupid (yeah, not bad, stupid) news come out. I’m gonna sell some more of my common when we hit 4$ again—and make no mistake, we will get there again.
2 words: liquidation preference. This meant that we did not increase in value, because every penny we retain we basically owe it to the gov. This is stupid, hope court wins keep coming so that we can truly do away with the nws otherwise it’s going to be a while before the govt says the capital you retain is yours
I’m almost hitting myself for selling 1/4 of the common stock I had. Oh well, still plenty of money riding the Fannie train.
This should be at least $6 imo, and climbing as we start to retain earnings. Calabria has stated that we will retain earnings, the question is just how much and when. Mnuchin wants it to be the next quarter, Calabria this one. My guess is that it will be a phased approached: we will be allowed to retain some earnings this quarter, but more as time goes by. We know this companies are profitable, got a good court case, and will now have capital!
This stock has fluctuated and hit 3 bucks so many times it’s almost certain it will get there again on some hopeful news. It might drop to 1.9 again, but it will also rebound, and keep playing on that loop.
Will Happily sell to you for 3 bucks a piece
I’ll probably keep 10k in common and all my preferreds, but time is eating away any potential for a good profit
That’s it, I’m selling next time it hits $3...
Hmmm what noticed is that if common goes up without a corresponding surge on preferred, it tends to lose the gains. Overall I think theres upside on both
I bought prefs as a hedge and have a 85% return right now on those, whereas my commons are at 12% I believe. Common has been deep red, but the prefs haave been just slightly so. However, Prefs have already realized a bunch of value. I would keep it 70/30 at least in terms of common / pref.
And yet we’re still above 3$ which many said we’d never see again.
Gotta say I’m a bit dissapointed we didn’t hit the 4$ we did when Mnuchin got appointed, but this year has made up heavy losses (for me) on the commons.
Wish I had picked up up more prefs when I hedged with them, but overall this is finally shaping up to be a different year
Funny thing is this is true, share prices are usually tied to expectations of how well a company can perform rather than an accounting exercise nowadays
Makes no sense. Will just need to tide it out
Why not? Seems like a tradeable pattern with good profits. I put a sell order at 3.10 but it was too late and didn’t get filled, would buy again at 2.75. I do worry about missing the big run to $6, but I’m in this to make money
Btw, my prefs have been steadily increasing (fnmfn), close to 70% return. If I hadn’t bought these as a hedge, I would be kicking myself right now. They still have quite a bit of upside imo
I want to kiss Calabria
Pardon my ignorance, why is the screenshot a positive development?
Yeah...selling on the next 3$ pop —which will happen. I’ll probably only keep prefs (if it wouldn’t be for them I’d be deep in the red)
Not a recco
Thank god I invested in some pref’s. Have steadily climbed and stayed up. What’s up with common not getting the same benefit? I guess getting out of c-ship will be beneficial to prefs no matter what, but could be beneficial or not for commons (higher risk, potentially higher reward (or the shaft)).
Invest wisely.
What calendar are you looking at? Do you only have 10 months in your year?
Best of luck!
I think this it it. I’m selling my commons the next pop I’m back in green territory. If Calabria won’t do anything, no one will because Congress will stall on this forever. This is ridiculous
Sweet, now let’s just wait...
Deja vu
Fund invested in prefs, even if you are long common, the article posts a positive outlook
https://gatorcapital.com/research-article/gse-preferred-stock-2/
This slow bleed reminds me of why I wanted to sell the last time we hit $3. I think there’ll still be a nice push and retreat before we ‘rocket’ to $8.
Why isn’t Calabria’s eminent undertaking of the FHFA position have a bigger impact on the stock? Otting’s news caused a huge spike in January. Is his plan baked in the current pps? If someone has a good insight, let me know. No pumpers please.
Billionaires beat millionaires every single time. My money is on Paulson and Mnuchin. I’m betting on both common and preferred and there is no reason why I would only own one of the two types of stock.
Thank you
Well, is it happening?
I own both and the prefs have been by far a better investment thus far. It all depends when you bought in. Also, the commons have much higher risk, and should provide a higher return; else you’re taking a much bigger amount of risk in vain. Commons could be worthless while preferreds would get some money back in the worst of scenarios. If I were to start the investment again ai would likely have a 60:40 prefs to common ratio, but I’m comfortable where I am closer to a 30:70 ratio. For those betting the house on this, if you’re going to put all eggs in one basket, at least have different kinds of eggs in there.
Now 2.68 support level
I would not expect Otting to cause issues with Calabria’s hearing by stopping the NWS tomorrow. I would be VERY surprised if that happens. I do like Calabrias ‘refer to the law’ comment, since he’s always said that the amendment goes against the law.
My humble prediction: another pop and go down again before we move up permanently. Calabria is a game changer in this.
Not a recco
Same day as hearing ??
“Why will the government "require and explicit paid for guarantee for catastrophic losses"? The government did not require such fee for banks, GM, AIG, etc., etc., so why pick on fnma??? “
The same reason why’re still in conservatorship and none of those companies are. FnF operated very differently from those companies and Mnuchin and Crapo have both said that if there is a guarantee, it has to be explicit and paid for (search on YouTube the last hearings). If there isn’t a govt guarantee, either the market won’t be as liquid or the profits won’t be as big. As an investor buying a product that a private company insures instead of the US govt, you will require a higher yield as it is a riskier investment.
We are guaranteed by the govt right now. Are you talking about the future? Capital requirements are not the same as guarantees. But , if you want to pump this to unrealistic expectations, go ahead. I am long, but anyone giving a price higher than 30$ is selling smoke. Hedge funds have done their homework, have much more inside info, and they are predicting much lower prices.
There are good reasons why this is unreasonable:
1. If the companies are released, then the govt will require and explicit, paid for guarantee for catastrophic losses. This would take 10-15% of share value
2. There will most likely limit the market share of FnF, in the long term they are the best positioned to succeed, but still market share will be reduced. This will further reduce market share. I don’t see how the govt would take away less than 30% of their market share.
3. Dilution for recap. Need I say more?
So shoot for about 20-40% of your estimates, if that. Still much better than todays price
It doesn’t sound like he really cares about Congress. He copied pasted text from a public doc, and then said ‘give me suggestions if you want’
????
Interesting that spokespeople are being politically correct, but official seems to be advancing his own plan. Honestly, this might be another peon on the executive vs legislative power battle. If there’s enough buzz then we’ll all benefit as long as we don’t wait for 20$$
I dont know that preferred investors want to be common investors. I own both, and would be perfectly happy with my preferred getting par and future dividends, and let the market dictate the price of the commons. Having to pay a dividend would make it harder to capitalize if you’re retaining earnings though, so would be Ok with converting my prefs to common if at the time of doing I get par (or very close to it).
Yes, I’m losing about 3k today argh...but am over 80k up this year ??. I don’t know a stock that only has green days.
You can buy as many as you want now ??
Every movement upward has a small temporary pullback. I’d rather close near where we are right now, and keep moving upward on Tuesday
We need both of them up. Our interests are aligned in terms of ending the nws getting R&R. Capitalization is key and commons will more than likely get diluted and preferred won’t get par, but both will be much better off than todat