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I did same back on 3/20 if you see my post. I was calling out the pull back. I took some off the table as well. I still feel long this is a good trading stock.
Yeah I am thinking about trading this more through this year and less holding as I antispate dips but for long I am still bullish. I mostly think people are taking some money off the table and locking some profits. I am waiting on pull backs now.
I think were poised for a break out next week if we go about 52 week high.
$10 value is still good for accumulation.
Fingers and Toes crossed Please
Yeah I agree I am thinking 18-20Mill this year anything above that would help our share price.
LOL that made me laugh so hard.
Actually I just didnt have the time to get all the FDA trial data into spreadsheet.
But just looking at the overall numbers we should see 2-6Mil more in revenue (based on the slide that has 2-20Mil per fully commercialized estimates) if only 3 more get commercialized this year plus increase in existing 2 commercialized products. We know the usage is going to increase this year anyhow with the 2 new facilities, and they wouldn't open those without good reason.
Even if only 3 get added to our 2 were looking at 18+ Mil in my opinion with alot of upside. This is right on track with my expectations to continue to build value.
Guess someone taking some money off the table, but looks like plenty of buyers.
Yeah plenty of interest at $10 making me still feel good.
We might break our 52 week high $10.40
This weekend if I get time I am going to do a revenue analysis / forecast based the 4Q conference call information and the details provided on the FDA Clinical Trials. I am trying to determine how many possible clinical trials are likely to move to commercialization in next year. In addition what is the high and low end of revenue with the estimates of $2-20 mil per product. If anyone has already done this feel free to post. Otherwise I will get to in hopefully sometime this weekend.
Example: If 2-3 go commercialized in next year that is anywhere from $4-6+ Million at a minimum. Also, consider how DAM slow they are at ramping up. So my forecast will be based on initial start. I think the real question is what kind of growth numbers do we want to assign the commercialized products.
Having to Ramp up costs as well with revenue and they really are going to aim to grow margin to the 60% mentioned on the conference call. Hopefully earlier commercialized products finally start increasing as well. We should have some added growth to boost revenue, but will need more than just a couple to get there.
Everyone wants instant growth, but this company is working on building strong value and gradual growth while maintaining margins. I still think they are doing it the smart way controlling costs but as Jerry said it on the conference call they don't want to kill the business for instant profitability. (As much as we all think this is BS. What he said is a fact for any company still building value.) I myself have moved on from the past built up emotions from getting screwed on revers splits, and now am looking forward to the next few years.
Yeah my focus this year is purely numbers. They are right on track as promised on the way to the 60% Gross Margin. They are also scaling costs well, which in turn over time at 60% Gross Margin will lead to our profitability and eventual positive cash flow. I agree with the call lets build some more value first, which they are also doing with the CryoStork and C3.
Analysts Current Targets
Needham $11 raised target 3/7
Cowen Co. $11 raised target 3/8
Roth Capital $12.50 - Provided 11/30/17
Janney Montgomery $12 - Provided 10/3/17
TipRanks has us at Moderate Buy
Thomson Reuters has us at Buy
The guys at Roth Capital and Janney Montgomery. I wonder if they plan to revise any estimates as well or reiterate.
Options for CYRX are being traded now at my Brokerage as well not sure when this started. Time to speculate
March, April, May, and Aug so far.
Briefing.com Needham has buy at $11
Thu Mar 08 08:03:42 2018 CYRX has been reiterated as a buy
CYRX, (Trade) has been reiterated by Needham as a buy at 11.0.
I still think its higher than this based on my analysis. $11 is conservative.
CYRX Financial Analysis - Enjoy
Gross Margin Increase 9.52% - 2016 to 1017 - This is awesome. They continued the roughtly 10% growth in Gross margin Year over Year.
I know I promised some new cash flow numbers. Sorry on the dealy things have been crazy on my end.
My Financial Analysis of CYRX for 2016 to 2017
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Total Cash reported for EOY was $15,052,189
In 2017 Take the Cost of Goods and divide by 12 getting Monthly cost.
$5,987,834/12 = $498,986
Then take your cash and divide by the monthly cost.
$15,052,189/$498,986= 30.15 Months of cash if cost stay same. This is an increase from last year if you recall we only had 20 Months of cash from my last post on Finance.
This is awesome. If you factor in also the increase in Accounts receivable.
Now to cover the break down of increased costs between 2016 and 2017.
General and administrative $971,641 - 13.09%
Sales and marketing $412,176 7.88%
Engineering and development $607,586 - 50.39%
In total that is $1,991,403
Since our Gross margin increased from
$3,101,423 to $5,966,433 the 9.52% this is $2,865,010 Increase we can used against our costs
This next numbers shows our gross margin increasing faster than COSTS <<< AWESOME JOB
$2,865,010-$1,991,403 = $873,607
This is effectively the first time we saw a drop in Loss from Operations <<< AWESOME JOB
From $8,766,109 to $7,892,502
In summary with 30 months of cash and increasing gross margin. I am still long this stock for a buyout and growth potential.
I think the increase volumes lately are from institutions realizing the same thing.
I have to say Thank you to the management of Cryoport keep up the great work. I feel strongly that 2018 and 2019 will be great years.
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Conference Call Notes:
Link to Listen to Call
Personally, I am a numbers guy but I do listen to the direction to ensure management is on task with continuing these numbers.
Ramping up of 2 centers will add some costs, but the ramp up will be timed with the ramping up of customers.
It was good to see they are forecasting these patients estimates before investing full in these centers.
This is critical in maintaining growth in revenue while not overrunning costs.
$2-20 Mil revenue potential from each commercialized.
I really like this number, and can see this being great.
I wonder if McKesson would potential be a company that may want to buy us out and integrate us. We don't want to do this yet until we generate more value for CryoPort over the next 2 years.
By far this is the best call with the most information for the public on CryoPort performance and details.
I really like the CryoStork and C3 services, which they discussed on the call.
I feel like during the Q&A - Jerry really laid them out on profitability. It was awesome...LOL -Hopefully the person that asked the question went back and did the math to understand the growth of costs relative to the growth in revenue. This is what is used to build us value.
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Disclaimer: I have owned this stock for almost 10 years now. I am long Cryoport. My analysis is my own. I am just sharing for others.
I am not a certified financial advisor, and you should always make your own investment decisions.
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We are making lives and saving lives here. I am excited.
I also really like the fact the major institutional investors have been increasing there ownership per the latest news articles. I bet they continue to increase ownership if the revenue meets expectations.
If we have solid earnings I am hoping Analysts raise there estimates, but I never hold my breath for those guys. They have there own agenda. Average price targets are $10.70 from Analysts. If they also raise there estimates I think we could see some more upside as well.
I love all these stupid news stories that say so and so reduced holdings and they only own a tiny amount of shares LOL. Not sure if there ment to impact anything. When I own 5 times as many shares as they do. I am just like your loss my gain. haha
WOW Wired Magazine nice @coldasice - That is really good press for Cryoport
I like how we were compared to Blue Apron for BioTech companies.
I still want AMZ to buy us for $20 a share or more.
LOL would love shorts to be caught with there pants down ROFL.
$10 here we come
Well the tax cuts will help us for sure. If revenue really gets up to $18-20 Mill I think we could see $12-15 a share, and maybe even $20 if we get more FDA approvals happening and the public has some kind of idea of the sales we can have going into 2019.
Personally I think we're already showing the value. You have to just hope the majority owners are stubborn enough to ask for a good price. Cough Cough $20 please. We are at 12Mil+ annual rev with the current rate, which to me already shows the value.
Yep your right Earnings call 3/6.
Sorry made typo earlier. Thanks for correction mikeslife
been crazy day
yeah I completely agree the value is about double the current price if we were bought out in my opinion. I still think were undervalued.
Reminder Conference Call today 4:30 EST
http://ir.cryoport.com/news-releases/2018/02-20-2018-133100789
Would be cool to see AMZ buy CYRX wonder what price we would get in a buyout.
Going to toss out some speculation. Anyone think will be back up to $10 if earnings all goes well and meets or beats -.07 estimates?
My dream is still $20+ for this stock. I think we have the potential.
Yeah deal looks interesting as McKesson already is a highly integrated healthcare software company. Glad to see something in the news about partnerships. This is great that other companies see the value in partnering. I am curious to know if all we are doing is supplementing there shipping needs, or if we plan to do more.
This is the perfect time for Cryoport to shine, and continue to make progress. The market continues to do well thanks to tax cuts, which will drive allot of 2018 growth. I see this being a benefit for Cryoport business as well.
4Q 2017 Earnings Call March 6th
Conference Call Information
Date:
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
Time:
4:30 p.m. ET
Dial-in numbers:
+1 (877) 407-9716 (U.S.) or +1 (201) 493-6779 (International)
Confirmation code:
Request "Cryoport Call"
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cryoport-to-report-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2017-financial-results-on-march-6th-2018-2018-02-20
Yep I figured if you noticed the frequency. There the only one with the power to buy that often. They seem to love anything under $9.
TIPs for Cryoport Management
Anyone can generate more sales. Investors can help generate sales too.
Personally, I think we can all do more. If you know someone in the industry share your information about the company. Not for investment reasons but for increasing the reach of our company to others.
This is how I still feel about this stock and my investments today. Even though its been 10 long years for me owning this stock. I still feel not enough of wall street has come around to the recent near term potential for 2018 and 2019.
I will take $33.50 any day of the week LOL.
@stockwatchman101 after earnings I will post a new break even analysis with #months on current growth rate as well as #months of cash
Less Warrants outstanding = Good news for shareholders
Even if the base shares went up. We already knew the quantity of outstanding warrants so they are figured in including the discount offered.
We are looking good for 2018. Excitement!!!
I get my bonus in a few weeks if were still cheap I am getting some more
We got another $4.8 Million - NICE
"The Offer expired at 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time on February 2, 2018. In connection with the Offer, 1,590,797 Original Warrants were properly tendered by holders of Original Warrants in exchange for 1,590,797 New Warrants, which were immediately exercised for gross proceeds to the Company of approximately $4.8 million. "
Looking forward to the latest earnings and running my next outlook on cashflow. Still looking strong to me.
I got some more when it dipped under $8 opportunity for me.
Anyone know the next earnings date?
In terms of volume what I look for is gradual accumulation. This is occurring if you just look at the frequency (time between trades) this has been shortening. We may or may not have a low or high volume but continual trading is what I like to see. Right now I still see accumulation happening at a slow pace not to push the price up. If you watch the trades it just feels like this is what is happening. I think some funds are just buying gradually or trading small amounts.
Yeah this is nothing. We are still just waiting on the next Q numbers as well any news.
$9 After hours - Got to love all that accumulation above the $8 mark
Any good news and all these Analysts estimates will have to be raised again LOL - I am still forecasting $14-15 by end of year with current growth. Any surprises will just be awesome. If we grow enough we can wipe out any speculation of capital raises in 2019. I think if we don't expand to fast, maintain our costs, and get revenue up. Cryoport can be cash flow positive by 2019 or sooner(2018?).