Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
News: Sweetener project is progressing well, production will start at 2018, Production costs can be lower than sugar equivalent(Reb M molecule is 200X sweeter than sugar so 1/200 concentration will be needed to have same taste).
http://investors.amyris.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1023688
From Sweegen presentations, Amyris and Pure Circle(amyris partner) will have the lowest production costs compered to Evolva/Cragill,DSM,Manus Bio:
www.sweegen.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Company-Teaser-SweeGen-corporate-company-information.compressed.pdf
Spider web, amyris never did a public offering, so to say they want our money is innacurate(even misleading).
Spider Web, how announcing partnership with Blue California and additional 50M$ revenue in the next 12-18 months considered a theft? from who did they steal?
powerfullogic, both MOU and asset sale actually happened. Amyris sold 33% of novvi jv for 30M$ and 50% of sqalane business for 20M$.
MOU was closed as well, amyris got 10M$ for the closing(look at Q4 transcript).
The best way to understand the nature of the profit share, is to see who are the partners for this profit share:
-Firmenich: reported revenue of 3.2 billion CHF(=3.2 billion $) for 2016, net sales revenue.
http://www.firmenich.com/en_INT/company/news/Firmenich-Annual-Results-Sustainability-Report-2016.html
-Takasago: have more than 3000 workers and more than 1.2 billion $ annual revenue.
Kuraray: reported annual revenue 244 billion yen or 2.24 billion $.
And so on with the other partners(Cray Valley,Guanfu ...).
The question to be asked is, if those companies accepted to pay for Amyris R&D(not cheap) and accepted to split with amyris the profits, what profit they project and how will it work?
If amyris will sell them the molecules at "Market price", they get no profit and all the proposition is not worth it.
Amyris has to sell them much than the market price, so the profit will be worth for them.
Lest say amyris produces one of the molecules for 10$/kg and the market price is 50$/kg(they have one molecule like that), how will it work?
Amyris will sell to Firmenich at 10$-15$/kg or even lower, Firmenich will sell it at 50$/kg, and the gross profit will be split between them and Amyris.
From this simple model - Amyris gets 10$/kg(production costs) + 20$/kg(profit share) and Firmenich gets 20$/kg of profit which should be acceptable for them considering they paid for the R&D and do the marketing.
If on the other hand, amyris was selling to Firmenich this molecule at close to market price, lets say 45$/kg, Firmenich had almost no profit and paying many million $ for Amyris R&D just does not make any sense.
In conclusion:
Amyris sell to partner well below the market price of the product(those are the product revenues we seen so far), and when the partner sells the products and gets the profit, big part of it goes to Amyris.
Important thing to not, for 2016 amyris did not get the profit share part from 26M$ of product sales, all what amyris got was 838K$.
If 838K$ was big part of the profit for 26M$ worth of product sales, no big company(with multi billion annual revenue) would sign for profit share + fully sponsoring the R&D.
noconspiracies, they started Q1 with 10M$ from nikko JV to account and 3.8M$ from delayed shipment(Q4 -> Q1), So we started this quarter with 13.8M$ revenue. EPS expected for this quarter is (0.10) with 26M$ revenue total. Chance of beating this expectation should be high.
This PR has several points:
-Number one "Squalane + Peptide Eye Gel is the #1 selling eye product at SEPHORA.com"
Sephora has multi billion $ revenue:
https://www.referralcandy.com/blog/sephora-word-of-mouth-marketing/
-Number two, Vitmain E from farnesene is selling better than expected:
"At the same time, the company's nutrition business is also expanding significantly with better than expected introduction of Farnesene to Vitamin E oil sales in China. The cost advantage and performance of Amyris products is continuing to deliver significant disruption and growth opportunities for Amyris partners."
Forgot to mention, Amryis has 1.2 million liter production plant with production capacity of up to 40 kilo ton of product a year.
Plant of this size will cost 70M$ to 100M$ to built and it is wholy owned by amyris.
Amyris owns 1 Demo plants(5000 liter) and 2 pilot plants(500 liter) as well.
Amyris undervalue or overvalue can be checked compared to other players in the synbio sector:
Zymergen:
-Has products? currently no.
-Has production plant? currently no.
Got 130 million $ funding at 2016:
https://techcrunch.com/2016/10/10/biotech-startup-zymergen-nabs-130-million-from-softbank/
Ginkgo bioworks(amyris partner):
-Has products? currently no(expected to lunch 3 products with amyris by end of 2017).
-Has production plant? currently no.
Got 145 million $ funding since middle of 2015(45M$+100M$):
https://trello.com/c/PbAjNCHt/2516-ginkgo-bioworks-yc-s14-takes-on-zymergen-with-45m-in-series-b-funding
https://techcrunch.com/2016/06/08/ginkgo-bioworks-grabs-100-million-in-financing-to-buy-a-whole-lot-of-synthetic-dna/
Evolva:
-Has products? yes, currently 3 products, straggling capture market share(3M$ product sales revenue for 2016).
-Has production plant? basically, no, just small scale(~5000 liter) Demo plant.
Evolva market cap(not fully diluted as they recently executed 30M$ equity financing with selling stock 5% under market price): 240 million $.
Amyris:
-Has products? yes, many products:
Squalane
Lubricants
Ambroxane
Patchoulol
Tackifier(High-Performance)
Myrcene(farnesene based fragrance)
Liquid farnesene rubber
Myralene(High Performance industrial solvent)
-Products under development?:
Working with DARPA on a platform that will allow optimization of 100 molecules simultaneously, allowing the lunch of hundreds of products each year.
Project name "Living foundries", currently at an advanced stage and ahead of schedule:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/darpa-rsquo-s-biotech-chief-says-2017-will-ldquo-blow-our-minds-rdquo/
-Biogen project:
With amyris ASE(automated strain engineering), amyris will attempt to engineer certain yeast strains for production of recombinant proteins.
https://microbialcellfactories.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12934-016-0437-3
Recombinant protein market is over 80 billion $ market:
https://www.bccresearch.com/market-research/biotechnology/protein-drugs-markets-manufacturing-bio021c.html
-microPharm:
Amyris outsourced some aspects of their terpenoid production platform to 2 big pharma companies(J&J and Roche) so they can use it for drug discovery.
Terpenoids are large(78,000 different molecules and according to recent research those are just 5%-10% of potentially existing molecules from this family) family of molecules with very bioactive properties and largely unexplored(although the terpenoid based pharma market was 12 billion $ at 2002).
Terpenoids molecules drugs are part of the small molecule drug API(Active pharmaceutical ingredients) with current market of 132.9 billion $:
http://www.crossroadstoday.com/story/34545712/small-molecule-api-market-to-reach-usd-2797-billion-by-2027-growing-at-a-cagr-of-7-from-2016-to-2027
Amyris market cap today(including all convertible notes fully diluted into OS): 0.58 X 293M(OS fully diluted) = 170M$ market cap.
Spider web, the retail holding is 25% and not 80%, here is the holding chart from amyris recent presentation:
http://i.imgur.com/9iqgDBo.png
Total - 24%
Temasek- 24%(Today 22% and seems as they stopped to sell)
Fidelity - 7%(was updated to 8% recently)
KPCB + Naxos + BIOLDING(John doerr holding shares through those companies) - 7%.
TPG - about 2% .
Retail investors - 25% as to now.
2)Total owns shares, just like any other holder(They recently lunched new product with amyris to a multi billion dollar market).
3)Link to john doerr buying at Feb 19, 2016(he did not sell a share since then): http://investors.amyris.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=955799
4)Fidelity owns 8%, just showed you, here is another filing:
http://investors.amyris.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=315066-17-1417&CIK=1365916
They own 8.311% as to February 13, 2017(the date of the filing).
5)60 different companies and institutions applied for the DARPA project, among those only three were chosen: Amyris, zymergen and MIT.
http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/2015/09/darpa-biological-materials.html
6)Guanfu holding already lent amyris all the 25M$, here is the filing:
http://investors.amyris.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1171843-17-111&CIK=1365916
http://investors.amyris.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1365916-17-3&CIK=1365916
Spider Web, if the company is so bad, you should warn the real holders and not the retail. The retail investors hold only 25%, so here are some of the investors you should warn:
First warn Total, they have 24% stake at amyris and don't seem as goint to sell anytime soon. Here:
TOTAL S.A.
Direction Relations Médias
Tour Coupole
2, place Jean Millier
Arche Nord - Coupole/Regnault
92078 Paris La Défense Cedex
France
Tel. +33 1 47 44 46 99
Second you need to warn John Doerr, he has 7% of the company and is one of at the board of directors. About 9 months ago he bought another 25M$, here: http://www.kpcb.com/partner/john-doerr
Third you should warn fidelity, they own 8% of amyris, here is contact: Fidelity representative 800-343-3548
Forth you should warn DARPA(Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) agency, they already paid amyris around 20M$ and have another 20M$ to pay, it a shame if they waste tax payer money on failed company.Here:
https://contact.darpa.mil/
Fifth you should warn DOE(Department of Energy), they have chosen Amyris for new project(multi million $ payments) just few months ago, another waste of tax payer money, you should call them and tell them to stop the project.Here: https://energy.gov/contact-us
Sixth you should warn Guanfu holdings, they just lent Amyris 25M$ unsecured loan, if amyris goes BK they lose the money(again, unsecured). Here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=30467276
There are other companies/institutions that will lose more than the retail investors if the company goes down, if you are really into warning and saving investors money, contact them, they will lose considerably more than we will if indeed amyris goes down.
New product lunched today with Total/Cray Valley(100B$+ company), New product has replacement of 30% piperylene by farnesene. Piperylene is specialty chemical with market price of 5$-6$/Kg and amyris farnesene will replace it.
RFB, you should check out SEC rules, insiders can buy/sell only during restricted time periods. Temasek is 10% beneficial owner not an insider.
Spider Web, if things were certain Temasek wouldn't lose last year 24B$ in the first place.
Spider Web, Temasek is selling we all know, but what about john doerr?, what about Total? What about fidelity? what about the other big investors? why they do not sell?
The answer is, only temasek lost 24 billion dollars at 2016 and is doing re balancing. They had 28M free shares from amyris(warrants with 0.01$ exercise price) of those about 11M left today and probably will be sold at the next few high volume trading days due to short covering or some news.
Winthorpe III, if you really want to find the "profit share" numbers you can find them(look at the sec filings), they get 30% to 50% of partner profit margin.
To this date, they produce 3 molecules(end of this year should be at the very least 6):
-Farnesene, used for production of:
Lubricants
Squalane
Vitamin E
Liquid farnesene rubber(tyres)
Plasticizers(With Cray Valley/Total)
Fragrance
Market price range from 3$/kg as rubber to 24$/kg as squalane.
Can also be turned to biofuel but they do not sell fuels anymore
-Ambroxide, used for fragrance, market price is 665$/kg for amyris product and the synthetic synthesized molecule.
-Patchoulol,used for fragrance, market price is 50$/kg.
So if we look at the profit share they have:
-Lubricants - they get 33% of all the downstream sales via Novvi JV.
Squalane - they get 50% of all the downstream sales via Nikko JV.
Vitamin E - when the vitamin E is sold to the market, the profit is split 50%/50%.
Liquid farnesene rubber - when kuraray sells the farnesene to the for tyers, the part of the profit goes to amyris.
Plasticizer - when cray valley sells the farnesene part of the profit they get goes to amyris.
Fragrance - when Takasago sells farnesene based fragrance, amyris gets part of the profit.
For the two other fragrance molecules(Partner is Firmenich), amyris gets 30% of profit sales at first and when firmenich gets 15M$ more than amyris they start to split the profit 50%/50%.
All this profit share money is starting to get paid at 2017.
Spider Web, as usual, you forgot the fact they get 30%-50% of downstream sales that they did't not receive at 2016(check Q4 transcript if you think it is not true).
Firmenich(3 billion $ revenue at 2015 and still growing) payed Amyris the full costs of R&D for each molecule(10$-15$ each) and signed for 30%-50% profit share agreement.
If a company with more than 3 billion $ pays for R&D and agrees to 50% split of profit, how much profit do you think they expect? 1M$, 5M$, 10M$? those numbers are insignificant for them, if they pay for full R&D costs and agree to 50% profit share, they expect good profit from this venture.
Amyris is only starting to get the profit share for the downstream sales,those can more than double the revenue.
Spider Web, you "believe" the number of OS shares is 370M is exactly what i was talking about.We can believe whatever, the data from sec shows exactly how many "fully diluted" shares there are and it is not 370M, it is indeed 277M shares, about the same it was half a year ago.
About the jump from 140M shares to 250M+ shares, it was done during the debt restracture, a one time deal when amyris had 400M$ debt(about double they have now if we include the discount and mandatory convertible debt of 38M$).
About farnesene, that's just one of amyris molecules, by end of year they will produce 6 different molecules.
If you think it is uneconomic, why did Firmenich signed for 50%/50% profit margin split and invested 15M$ in the R&D for each of those molecules? they like to lose money?(they are multi billion corporation by the way).
Whey ginkgo signed with amyris a partnership for 50%/50% split on profit margin of those new molecules? they like to lose money as well? you know they are private company with private funding.
Yes, amyris did big mistakes going after biofuels but they gained strong tech base being the first company who even thought about using "microorganisms" to produce various chemicals. No wonder they work with DARPA and DOE.
Spider Web,it is hard to take you seriously when you make up numbers,
first, we have sec filings showing the number of shares did not increase.Second, if they issue new shares via ATM they have to fill a form for the new shares issued.Third, investor selling is not an dilution, this does not change the total share count, every trading day investors sell and buy, does it add new shares? No. Temasek is no different than any other holder, they are allowed to sell whenever they want(even in restricted periods)so in fact they cannot be counted as in insider, they are just a major owner.
Compering Amyris to Zymergen,Ginkgo or Twist bioscience shows little understanding in the synbio sector.
Twist bioscience is DNA supplier, it is nothing like Amyris, they don't work with yeast metabolic pathways to produce molecules, they just synthesize DNA part to long DNA chain and sell it on demand.
Zymergen is microorganism optimization company, they don't produce and have no intention to produce products, they focus on Non-natural molecules(See DARPA project, they work on 360 non-natural molecules) which is far more challenging than producing natural molecules(enzyme engineering is needed,migration of toxicity and complicated optimization).Zymergen is yet to show any microorganism producing one of those molecules.
Ginkgo is essentially like Zymergen but with a focus on natural molecules(mainly from the terpenoid family), amyris has strong technology in the field of production of those molecules(artemisinic acid,farnesene,Patchoulol,Ambroxan) so they decided to form a partnership.Ginkgo is yet to show fully optimized yeast to produce a molecule(they are close with rose fragrance)but as part of the partnership and with the technology amyris provided them(for 15M$) they should complete at least 3 products by end of 2017(the production will take place at amyris Brazilian plant).
Company which can be compared to Amyris, is the Swiss synbio company Evolva, they produce few natural molecules(steviol,Resveratrol,
Nootkatone)and work on few other molecules,their production takes place in contracted sites.
Currently there are no sybio companies with products/technology combination portfolio like the one Amyris has.