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One step CRISPR based test gives results in 1 hr from swab or saliva sample...
New CRISPR-based test for Covid-19 could be a simple, cheap at-home diagnostic, scientists say
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/05/crispr-covid-19-test-could-be-simple-cheap-at-home-diagnostic/
I posted this earlier. The science team is from the Netherlands...
Scientists Create Antibody That Defeats Coronavirus in Lab
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/scientists-create-antibody-that-defeats-coronavirus-in-lab
I believe humanized mAbs have a half life of 2-3 weeks so maybe use as a prophylactic in high risk populations such as healthcare workers. The big advantage is you only need a fraction of the number of doses it would take to vaccinate everyone since the target population is much less. An effective mAb would buy time until a vaccine is ready.
Re: 47D11 mAb
The Utrecht University SARS2 mAb (47D11) came out of earlier work on SARS1 and MERS. So how fast can this be trialed, approved and scaled up? I assume it will be faster than a vaccine and safety should be less of an issue. Could this be the way out of lock down?
Unique discovery in Erasmus MC: antibody against corona
https://www.erasmusmagazine.nl/en/2020/03/14/unique-discovery-in-erasmus-mc-antibody-against-corona/
COVID-19 monoclonal antibody developed at Utrecht University in the Netherlands...
Scientists Create Antibody That Defeats Coronavirus in Lab
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/scientists-create-antibody-that-defeats-coronavirus-in-lab
This...
According to this blogger, flu deaths are over estimated to encourage vaccinations which contributes to erroneous flu/COVID comparisons...
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges
COVID drugs & vaccines tracker...
https://www.statnews.com/feature/coronavirus/drugs-vaccines-tracker/
Why don’t some coronavirus patients sense their alarmingly low oxygen levels?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/why-don-t-some-coronavirus-patients-sense-their-alarmingly-low-oxygen-levels
Oxford planning 5,000 subject phase 2/3 next month, possible emergency approval in Sept...
With expansive Covid-19 clinical plan in full gear, Oxford team reports positive animal data on adenovirus-based vaccine
https://endpts.com/with-expansive-covid-19-clinical-plan-in-full-gear-oxford-team-reports-positive-animal-data-on-adenovirus-based-vaccine/
Right...I guess a lot of people are expecting a quick rebound of the economy. I can't see it. I'm watching the weekly SPX chart. The 100 period EMA is resistance at 2884 and the 20EMA is at 2911. If the 20EMA closes below the 100EMA it could get very ugly. It's happened only twice in the last 25 yrs...in March 2008 and Feb 2001.
current chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/dTgdTHru/
March 2008: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Xh8iAHsI/
Feb 2001: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vsuPCHWM/
Gundlach shorts the S&P...
'We are not out of the woods': Bond King Jeff Gundlach reopens his bets against the stock market as the coronavirus rages
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bond-king-gundlach-reopens-stock-market-shorts-amid-coronavirus-threat-2020-4-1029134463
Ex-Officials Call For $46 Billion For Tracing, Isolating In Next Coronavirus Package
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/27/845165404/ex-officials-call-for-46-billion-for-tracing-isolating-in-next-coronavirus-packa
In Ohio Dewine tweeting manufacturing, distribution and construction to resume on May 4. Masks are mandatory for employees and customers for ALL businesses.
Active ingredient in Pepcid in trial against COVID-19...
Common Heartburn Drug Being Studied As Possible COVID-19 Treatment
https://www.biospace.com/article/could-a-heartburn-medication-treat-covid-19-researchers-aim-to-find-out/
Right...the models are garbage. So how can decisions be made either way based on a model everyone knows is garbage. There's no legitimate data to go on except hospitalizations, recoveries and deaths. That data alone should give you a good idea of what is going on.
So the anti-lock down arguments of the article are...
1. People die from a lot of other things (accidents, heart attacks) and we do not shut down the economy so we shouldn't shut down the economy for COVID-19.
2. The "true death rate" is not as bad as the media says.
The big difference between accidents, heart attacks & flu compared to COVID-19 is when the former become life-death situations they do not overwhelm the health care system to the point where it sucks up all the hospital's resources and other health care services suffer.
Only looking at the "infection fatality rate" (deaths per infection) is like looking at the front of an object ignoring the sides, back, bottom and top. The argument should not be what side we should be looking at...we should be looking at all sides.
Comparing deaths per infection of flu vs. COVID-19 is comparing a ratio to a ratio. Since one data point is reported after the effect of a somewhat effective vaccine and the other is reported after strict quarantining & social distancing wouldn't data have to be adjusted for those conditions to see a true comparison? Another adjustment would have to be made for time since the flu data is for an entire year where COVID-19 data is only for a few months.
Arguments have been made that the infection rate of COVID-19 is much higher than reported which would lower the infection fatality rate. The same argument can be made for flu statistics since not everyone gets tested when they come down with flu like symptoms.
Since there's no way to know the actual infection rate of either flu or COVID-19, wouldn't direct comparisons of confirmed data be more relevant? i..e. hospitalizations, deaths etc?
CDC estimate for 2019-19 flu (full year/season)..
Deaths = 34,157
Deaths/day = 93.6
Hospitalizations = 490,561
Hospitalizations/day = 1,344
COVID 19 (<3 mos)...
Deaths = 53,934
Deaths/day = 642 (From Feb 1)
Deaths/day = 1982 (current 10 day avg)
Hospitalizations = 126,194
Hospitalizations/day = 1,784 (From March 1)
Looking at deaths per day COVID-19 is almost 7X more deadly than flu. 7x is not just 7X more deaths it's also longer hospital stays, more treatments to prolong life, more hours spent per health care worker, more equipment, diagnostic tests and supplies used per patient than flu.
Even though the hospitalization rate is not that much higher than the flu, the resources required to treat COVID-19 are much more...
Why Doesn’t Flu Tank Economy Like Covid-19?
Yesterday Sweden had 751 new COVID-19 cases...their highest number to date. 4 consecutive days of increases...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Derek Lowe gives a pretty good rundown on the current state of development of COVID-19 vaccines...
A Close Look at the Frontrunning Coronavirus Vaccines As of April 23
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/23/a-close-look-at-the-frontrunning-coronavirus-vaccines-as-of-april-23
Where are you getting 80,000 deaths in 2019? The CDC reports stats by flu season so if you're referring to 2018-19 there were 34,200 deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/
Small Dutch COVID-19 study of 184 ICU pts show 31% with blood clots. Recommending thrombosis prophylaxis for all ICU pts...
Incidence of thrombotic complications in critically ill ICU patients with COVID-19
https://www.thrombosisresearch.com/article/S0049-3848(20)30120-1/pdf
Study of 5700 pts hospitalized at NYC hospitals shows 88% mortality for those on ventilators...
Presenting Characteristics, Comorbidities, and Outcomes Among 5700 Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 in the New York City Area
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765184
3.7% mortality in ACE/ARB group vs 9.8% in non-ACE/ARB group in China trial...
Association of Inpatient Use of Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers with Mortality Among Patients With Hypertension Hospitalized With COVID-19
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.120.317134
Vitamin D could help fight off Covid-19 – new TILDA research
https://www.tcd.ie/news_events/articles/vitamin-d-could-help-fight-off-covid-19-new-tilda-research/
Meta-analysis of 25 RCT trials data show Vitamin D supplementation effective in preventing acute respiratory tract infections...
Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data
https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Dew..so the Positive Predictive Value goes up as the prevalence increases? In a population where 2% are infected we should expect a high number of false positives even with 99% sensitivity?
Huge jump in number of tests today...311K vs. 151K yesterday.
Good news if not a typo.
https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily
California is responsible for virtually all the increase. 165K tests today vs 9.6K yesterday...
https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california#historical
Link To article...
COVID-19 antibody testing 'a disaster,' says Roche CEO, as diagnostics sales rise
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/covid-19-antibody-testing-a-disaster-says-roche-ceo-as-its-diagnostics-sales-rise
What a total fiasco the testing situation has become. Adm Brett Giroir (Testing Coordinator) believes 4.5M tests per mo (150K per day - which is the current capacity) are adequate based on 200K Covid cases a month. He made the estimate "from the podium". Pence believes current testing capacity is adequate to start opening up the economy.
The administration's ONLY criteria for estimating the needed capacity for testing is based on the estimated number of cases??? Does anyone else find this bizarre? I checked about a dozen city & state health dept websites to see the testing qualifications. On almost every one (San Francisco was the exception), testing is only available for those who have symptoms. You cannot get tested if you were exposed to someone who had Covid. Also what about all the asymptomatic carriers spreading Covid? We're not going to find & test them?
Coronavirus Testing Hampered by Disarray, Shortages, Backlogs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-testing-hampered-by-disarray-shortages-backlogs-11587328441
So the projections (dotted line) are based on ROC. The DPD chart looks like a roller coaster. When you have that much volatility I don't know how accurate it will be. We'll find out in 12 days... 127 deaths on May 1.