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Totally Agree. Mrk is a mega market cap company and they don't just make decisions by chance. Most likely the move was a planned move agreed by both companies. Wasn't Roger Perlmutter who is President of Merck Research spotted at one of NWBO's sessions at last years ASCO? Furthermore, Merck laid off some 500 positions this past January and publicly mentioned their intention to add new positions in oncology (stronger growth area). I'm sure he was impressed in what he heard during the seminar. So impressed that somehow Dr. Duffy accepted a position at NWBO as VP Medical Affairs and External Collaborations. Then, coincidently Opdivo is out and Keytruda is in. Finally Dr. Duffy comes back to Merck as Research Medical Science Director and of course that position reports up to you know who, yes Roger Perlmutter.
Looks like Merck lined up their ducks, trimmed some fat around the edges, announced in PR last year of their intentions to further advance in oncology areas and had Dr. Duffy confirm Perlmutter's suspicions.
If Perlmutter likes what Duffy told him, then we're just waiting to hear the announcement of some type of collaboration with Merck, who will then assuredly help NWBO with approvals in the US, Germany, GB and Canada.
Yes, PoorMan you are correct that it doesn't make sense and we'll all soon know the reason why. I like so many on this board can't wait for the positive news because only then will so many more than just those in the DCVax trials begin to rid themselves of this terrible disease.
Hello Marzan,
So, I've always followed NVCR shr price along with NWBO, knowing that any favorable news for NWBO would probably be prefaced with a down slope in NVCR. As of right now the stock is declining by 11.4% with only 1.477 shrs traded. I would thing the volume would be much more for an integral down cycle on NVCR.
So how do you see this playing out? When do you think we see sizable down volume in NVCR and do you think we will see the inverse in NWBO?
TIA,
Hans
Happy 66th Birthday Captain O,
Enjoy your special day.
Hi Ex,
Are you an investor in NVCR?
Scotty,
Your posts are really fun to read, but this is going to happen.
So true. We'll know we have a winner when millions of NVCR shares are traded and the market cap is at $6 Billion and dropping. The best part of this though will be those suffering from this terrible disease. No longer will they need to wear the bunson burner 20+ hours per day. Great days ahead.
I just don't see it. Linda doesn't need NVCR. Roche and Merck combined would become the new number 1 healthcare company. Then with their synergies merging and application of the DCVax platform pipeline, the resulting revenue and profit could be beyond stellar. They could become the first healthcare company to reach 1 Trillion market cap. Remember too that Merck has already begun to trim their commericial sales force effective in 2020. So they're preparing for something.
Hi Sukus,
I think you meant to say more like the mini microwave oven. Correct?
I think you're right and I still think that Merck will partner with Roche on this BO so they don't compete against each other for all IP and assets assoc with NWBO.
I hear everything you are saying. My point is that I think the prospective buyers don't want the value to get too great and therefore by combining resources can somewhat limit the ceiling on the sale value. I also see your argument though with the history on Roche. Starting to get real exciting now. Happy Thanksgiving.
Hans
If you're correct, then, I see no way but a bid war between Merck, Roche and who knows who else or other partnerships. Merck is smart though, I'm sure they saw this possible scenario. Hence the reason, I believe a Merck and Roche parntership deal will seal it. Furthermore, the combined resources of the two could make this an all cash deal resulting in a much faster closing. Remember Merck is reducing their commercial headcount effective 01/20 while closing a number of their plants.
thanks for your response. I'm still thinking that Roche may partner with Merck on the BO. Once the word is out, everyone will want in, but only the combined resources of Merck and Roche can stop any bid war. Furthermore a partnership of merck and Roche stops Roche from trying to outbid Merck.
Hans,
Marzan,
So what do you see is LP's # for BO?
I think you have something there with your comment on not needing ASCO. I never thought about that, but you're correct. Look at the interest by Merck. Duffy is there ASCO. The only piece still missing is how LP will make sure those who are short will be caught for big losses with no warning.
Hans,
I understand what you say but if Merck and Roche both wanted this science and were to bid separately, then, they could possibly bid more than if they combined their resources and kept the bid value as acceptable to Linda and yet too rich for other bidders.
Sukus,
I believe if TLD is all what we expect it at the very very high end then, you may possibly see Merck and Roche combine resources and make one acceptable bid to Linda. Merck is already cleaning house with commercial layoffs effective 01/2020. Merck even stated that these layoffs are part of their plan to focus on R&D growth opportunities.
Sounds to me like they are preparing for something big. Hmmmmm.
Btw, the announcement was public on 10/18. Now when did Dr. Kevin Duffy leave Merck for NWBO ???
Mani,
How do you know that? I believe it is in Merck's best interest to keep this as quiet as possible therefore, limiting information to Duffy only and maybe CEO. That way, the SP will see no appreciation and when ready announcements will be made including Merck's interest. I'm sure LP and staff are also under a gag rule, otherwise they may jeopardize Merck's interest. I'm sure Merck does not want to get into a bidding war and want to protect their prospective interest. Merck has been through this before and understand M&A due diligence.
Hans
Thank you
2.16M shrs traded today. Almost twice the average.
Nyet, neither.
How about a PR with top line announcement on the DCVax L ph.3 results.
:)
As well as I too believe that. Much more important though are the patients who will finally be given a real chance of a cure from this terrible disease. :)
Hans,
So Nite is back to selling again at a whopping 281,000 shrs at .2345. How I wish someone would call that bid.
So Scotty,
What are the lessons learned here today?
Sukus,
The other BP's (other than MRK) most definitely know the future potentials of NWBO. However, it is not always so easy to scoop up a potential blockbuster like NWBO when it includes multiple, multiple billions. MRK already well understands the science of immunotherapy and the potential results it can offer, such as with Keytruda. The DCVax platform offers all that, but more with no side effects and against most cancers. MRK also understands this will take an historic offer once validated by Dr. Duffy. It will probably be in a cash and stock offer. Looks like MRK is getting their ducks lined up with 500 commercial and sales layoffs taking effect on 01/03/2020 and more important putting focus on R&D growth opportunities and adding US jobs focused on oncology. I'm thinking though that they may even partner this potential offer with Roche, maybe as a new company Merck & Roche. We will find out soon as the SNO conference gets closer and closer.
Well looks more and more like the marriage between NWBO and MRK just got alot closer with matchmaker Dr. Kevin Duffy. That positive SEC settlement would probably never happen if it weren't for Dr. Kevin Duffy. I also do believe now that the SNO conference in November will be crowning moment for NWBO, Linda Liau and Linda Powers.I see that the email came out at 5:46pm. Therefore, I am very curious to see how the market reacts to this news, knowing that MRK is helping drive this along. Shouldn't be much longer now for the news. :)
Exactly, but what I'm seeing is a possible merging of capital $$$ for NWBO by Merck & Roche for securing the complete acquisition of NWBO. Merck and Roche merge and streamline synergies for massive savings. Hence, the outlay of $50+ Billion for all of NWBO will be made back within three years. Their combined equities will surge them past JnJ and probably within three years of commercializing the DCVax platform would put them beyond $500+ Billion in market cap. Think about it. It's a win all around except for the remaining BP competitors.
Hans
Sounds about right, but don't be surprised to see Roche get involved here. If the pot starts to get too rich due to other additional bidders, then Roche could align with merck for NWBO total buyout (pipeline, mfg and all IP). :)
Hans
Yes !!!!!!
Nasdaq down by less than 1%, but NVCR now down by over 6% and their market cap now down to almost $7.5 Billion.
We can both see it and pretty much guess the reason why. Just think about those who trade NVCR on Wall Street. Don't you think they're asking the big question on why? Just think what happens once they begin to put it together too. JMHO
Hans,
Getting exciting now...
Looks like some of the smart $$$ has, is and probably will continue with greater percentage getting out of NVCR.
Nasdaq even so far for the day while NVCR is now down by 4.56% or $3.91 for current price of $81.75 per share. Market cap of $8 Billion. It's been on a decline since JC recommended selling on 08/27. JMHO
Hans
Any deal also does not have to be all cash either. Mrk for example could offer $30 Billion and a half to an eighth of a Mrk share for every NWBO share.
afoord567,
Totally agree with your reasoning on the timing and reasoning of the move by Dr. Kevin Duffy. Merck is a BP Giant with a value over $200 Billion. Their acquisition of Schering-Plough some ten years ago was criticized by some on Wall Street. Mrk dropped by 8% the day of the announcement and was like the 8th largest BP at that time. Now they're the second largest behind JnJ.
I agree with you that it is by no accident on the announcement of this move. Their analysis on NWBO has probably been ongoing for some time now and they're probably ready to make a move here but probably only when they see positive action by the now NWBO Dr. Kevin Duffy. JMHO
Hans
I love it. Furthermore, Merck is no stranger to large value takeovers. Back in 2009 they acquired Schering-Plough for $41 Billion. Not to shabby. I'm just wondering what LP's price will be with four RA's and manufacturing capacity ready to go.
Hans
Very insightful. Makes good sense to me. Just how you would expect a corporate giant BP to act. Thanks Sojourner.
Nasdaq up almost 1%. NWBO now up over 20%. NVCR down 1.5% and now just valued at $8.45B. Just reading the tea leaves. It's happening. JMHO
Just received new email from NWBIO:
It is my pleasure to send you NW Bio’s just-published press release announcing an expansion of our management team with Dr. Kevin Duffy, who is joining us from Merck.
Please join us in welcoming our newest team member, who will no doubt play a valuable role in our work towards establishing DCVax® immunotherapy in the clinic for solid tumor cancers. It is truly gratifying to see an individual of such caliber eager to help us in our efforts to make a meaningful improvement in the lives of cancer patients and their families.
As always, please keep the calls and emails coming.
Do you think we'll see another block sale?
After reading his life history, I have to believe his number one enemy is the total annihilation of cancer, and nothing less.
I truly believe it is just a waiting game now. The anticipation of the wait though being much much shorter. :)
That is good and I'm glad to see that as laughter is medicine for the soul.
:)