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It’s not like Dr. Alkon cherry picked the top 3 or 4 responders out of dozens of compassionate use patients.
I predict a PR Monday announcing release of results on Tuesday. This will be more bullish than a Friday PR for a Monday release.
New CEO, new procedure. Is Friday PR with a Monday release the norm with other companies?
This is my 3rd trial here. I’m too gun shy to go as high as 75/25, but very hopeful.
I'm a little more optimistic at 33% / 33% / 33%.
Me three!
Is that +6 over baseline or over placebo?
What is the company hoping for as “meeting primary end points” in this trial? What results?
Are you saying the fat lady didn’t sing on 12/2/22 with release of the data?
Doc is really tearing that AVXL report apart. He said the the slowing of decline is closer to 33% and the report look like it was written by some high school kid.
Thank you Cyosol. So I’m not crazy. These low valuations is making me wonder why I am risking my money upfront. Well said.
One point I disagree with Coach. If big companies look at the trial results and determine that it is worth a billion or more dollars to buy it now, they would be crazy and short sighted to let the market cap before results stop them. Those CEO's should be fired. Lol!
That’s OK, I can settle for being a rich oligarch.
Where is she?
I don’t think this company has any intention of running a ph3 trial if this trial is successful. I think they are planning on selling the whole company and the total shares were just too low to not let their buddies take one last bite.
Can’t be too mad at them. As the kids say, “They’re taking care of their day ones” (meaning those that were with you in the early days).
It’s not as bad as it looks.
Damn they raised money!!
The old guys could already be working on the data. Lol!
You know, come to think about it, the company can not PR a completion of trial as they did in previous trials, because of the 4 month observation extension. Huh!
Battle Ready, my expectations are closer to your numbers, upon good clear results. But, are your share prices based on outstanding or fully diluted share count?
Cyosol, you mentioned that the market is forward-looking, so maybe you can help me with this. How can Anavex have a market cap of over a billion dollars when they have yet to provide trial results to warrant this? Is it because the market is forward-looking?
Yeah, I usually base my projection off of a 12 million share count. So if I say I would be disappointed if results are very good and s/p isn’t quickly at least $100, I’m thinking a market cap of $1.2 billion (similar to Anavex currently).
If I remember correctly, at this point of the previous trials, there were many more posters on this board. That may be emblematic of how this stock is so over looked and under valued. This makes me think, if this trial is successful the value correction will not be immediate, lending to a side, short term trade opportunity. I have money set aside for that. If I wasn’t already so vested, this would be the majority of my strategy here, that is, jumping in after result release.
Just musing.
Well, when you put it like that…..:(
Is it not possible for the company to put out the results in 4 weeks after receiving the data? With all hands on deck and extended work hours, why not? They do have prior practice.
Well, the language did change from “Results in early December” to “Results in 4th quarter”.
Doc, I don’t know how much you've been keeping up with the company, but, what is your guess of the share price/company value after very good to excellent results in this trial? And what results would you consider very good to excellent?
You would have to be nuts to think this is a certain success. Just an educated gamble.
This stock should explode after reaching successful primary end points alone.
Here’s to, hoping that the additional round of bryostatin will pick up the remaining 20ish% of non responders.
And, thanks again for the link, Coach.
Thanks, Coach.
A friend of mine asked me what is the one thing in this trial that would lead to success when the last trial didn’t succeed, and name one source that leads me to believe this may be the case.
I said, the extended trial and I’ll get back with him with a source that makes my believe plausible.
Can anyone help me find the study/experiment using bryostatin on mice, I forget the indication, but success was only achieved after a extended period of treatment?
Out of all the theoretical approaches to treat A.D., SNPX has the most logical approach, to regenerate synapses. Add on top of that the fact that bryostatin has shown to regenerate synapses preclinically, I say the odds of this trial being successful is not in the single digits. The extended trial will prove it. IMHO.
$800 - $1.2 billion would equate to $66 to $99 per share.
I would be pissed if they sold at that price with great results.
If the trial is successful meaning bryostatin can grow synapses, the market will place a value on the company. The company must make sure that valuation include the bryologs, which are believed to be better than bryostatin, and also other disease applications that will benefit from synaptic regeneration.
How are the chances looking that the Fragile X trial will start before data results release?
You know, even if the company wanted to raise a few million into the open market before data release, I wouldn’t have a problem with it. As long as they don’t make one of these sweetheart deals with options with investors.
Where do think the shares being sold are coming from? I don’t think it’s shares from “weak hands”.
Obvious manipulation of this stock. Closing in on 200,000 shares traded in less than an hour and in the red. Reason is yet to be seen.