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Coach, the way I read it is that they need more shares approved in order for existing issued options to be able to be exercised. Looks like currently they are about 110,000 shares short. They also need new shares approved for future option grants. They may grant new options, but I would think they would be for 2020, the date that the option price is set, will be interesting. Or, if you want to really speculate they want to do it early because they expect to be bought out before the end of the year and this is their last chance to get a bigger taste. :)
Thanks, when I was looking at the original 2B Doc I did not follow the protocol link. The current trial Doc has that detail in the mail doc. I believe your analysis on the improvement will be borne out.
I am just going by the items now listed under the May 22, updates to the secondary outcome list. A separate Stratification measure was not called out earlier. Also I was under the impression that the Memantine item was uncovered in the post trial analysis. Just wondering why they would do a major trial update after last patient final dosing.
Coach you are correct, plus he is an officer in the company he has to word things cautiously.
Yes, I got that, what I was referring to were the added secondary measures. One is now a separate "stratified" SIB measure for mod vs severe patients. Who do you think decided that more secondary measures would help
Coach - have you looked at the updated trial details. They added several secondary outcomes in the May 22 update. They added three additional outcome measures, seems to me that they have good data to report or why bother expanding. What is your take.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT03560245?A=1&B=13&C=Side-by-Side#StudyPageT
More fake news.
You are right - "The truth will set them free".
I went back and listened, it was like ease dropping on the coverstation with the mike on. I heard the part about the oral, and what I heard was that Dr Alkon said that it would not be a problem and they are working on it. But I thought he said at the end something about the supply is precious and oral may use up the supply faster. He also mentioned sonething about bioequivalence, dont know if he was referring to oral or the syntheic.
Earlier he mentioned hoping to be in the market in 2-3 years to one of the questioners.
What's going to happen when AVXL's P2 trials fail, NTRP comfirmatory results are confirmed and it is still two years before AVXL's AD trial also fails. Best guess is AVXL is diluted to sub penny stock status, and AVXL won't be in the market.
No one in their right mind would believe any papers about AVXL with their corrupt background.
I'll trust my own accumulated DD over anything on a board OR in a "peer reviewed" journal:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=147032567&txt2find=peer
Links to msg board posts only prove my point, just BS speculation. Who invests based on NB posts.
Lol another cabal theroy like the excuse for AVXL being in the toilet. No comparison NTRP has the data, AVXL has speculation and nothing more.
That is total BS, please tell us who these "power brokers are". More fake news.
I think you are referring to Clyde McGregor and his wife Luanne Pope. Looks like Clyde was/is a partner at Harris Associates and purchased shares of NTRP through the various private placements since 2015. According to the 13G and the quantity of the shares and warrants he owns, looks like he and his wife have invested over $4m in NTRP thus far.
The reverse split was to allow the stock to be listed on NADAQ. No they have never filed for BR. They did not run out of money, The speculation why they raised money when they did varies. Could be to help get Fx and MS trials funded, could be to have enough cash on hand to allow time for a BP deal, or could just be the IBers convinced them it was a good time.
Looks like all the efforts to put lipstick on the AVXL pig has failed again, that is a fact, like it or not.
It is true and obvious to anyone that looks at the facts not the hype. Fortunately looks like the market has figured it out.
No, the lack of results, the fact that no meaningful AD trial results will be available for over two years. The high burn rate, and the constant hyping, are all facts that cannot be denied and are why AVXL will fail.
Totally true and the evidence is there. They eliminated the AD patients through their "data mining", of their sham 2a trial.
"AVXL appears to treat patients without AD"
They have no documented credibility and AVXL appears to treat patients without AD. There AD results are still 2 years away, gives Dr Missleading time to collect more $ before the whole company goes belly up.
I believe that we get a good clue from this trial. They separated the moderate and severe into two tracks and will have results broken out. It will be interesting to see whether there is a sign difference by % or by absolute number.
I am not understanding what you are trying to do. If you are trying to buy the Jan 12 $5 calls, the bid is $2.55 and the Ask is $6.00. The way it works is that you need to keep raising the bid until someone decides to sell. No one would sell the Jan 12 for $2.55 when they could sell the Oct 18 $5.00 for $3.30 which is he current bid. You may be able to get them for between $4.00 and $5.00. IMO for what you are trying to do the Oct's would make more sense.
Somebody was really in love with $7.01.
No he will be covering the data already released and peer reviewed. Will be interesting if he will indicate schedule of current trial though.
Cyosol - you appear to have come up with a "Precision Medicine" solution to the outliers in the trial.
Theburg - I think it depends on what "expectations" are and how success is measured. I agree that 80% is a reasonable expectation, but what is success? A lot of "investors" consider it a success if they buy at the right time and sell at a higher price before results are released. Others here measure success as whether the drug has a stat sig outcome. While others will consider the results as a failure if they do not match the previous 15 out of 16 success rate. A good perspective on this is from Runcoach.
"What will be interesting to me is what % the drug helps this time. Will be be virtually everyone? Will it be 50%+? I honestly don't expect to see 90%+ again but if the science holds it very well could. What will be interesting for me to see is due to the triple "n" in this trial, we could still be stat sig with 60% increasing cognition potentially (depending on degree of increase of course). At that point people like me and maybe some on the message boards might be disappointed since we are all well aware and hopeful that nearly all will be helped, yet the market would still likely over the near term price the stock over a billion dollars. Fact is if over half are helped and show a cognition increase of 5-8 pt increase this would still be a blockbuster drug. Drug won't be crazy expensive, nor does it take but a few doses (perhaps 3 or 4) to know if it reverses the disease. Point being that as high and hopeful as my expectations are, only a fraction of that is necessary for patients and shareholders to have a winner. JMHO "
The main thing is to make sure that you don't invest more than you can afford to lose. The second thing is to look at the science. If you read through Runcoach's posts you should get a very straight forward and honest description of the science.
Personally I consider NTRP as a no brainier for a couple reasons. 1) Unlike other AD stocks it will have confirmation of unprecedented results within the next 10-12 weeks, for moderate to severe AD. No other company is addressing this area. The investment game for other AD stocks has relied on pump and dump to create profits, and that is now the expectation for a lot of AD investors. 2) NTRP is addressing AD in a totally different manner and many investors do not understand that, plus the institution's are just starting to get it. Dr Alkon a founder and one of the foremost experts in brain function, has spent 30 years researching and proving this approach and solution. He has worked at NIH and the Rockefeller AD research center where he has had access to several hundreds of million dollars for independent research.
Some of the people on here are hoping for a run up in the stock a couple weeks before results, they will then sell, expecting the results to be bad, if they are not bad but what is expected, the stock will spike up and some people will make a lot of money as the real players get in. BTW that scenario has been the typical process in these stocks. Good luck with whatever you decide.
A Put is an option to sell at a strike price by a specific date. People who buy puts are basically buying an insurance policy to prevent a loss below a chosen price. For example if NTRP went to $20 but you did not want to sell because you think that it might go to $30 within the next couple of months, but you want to protect yourself from having the stock go to $10, you may be willing to buy a $20 put for $2.00 to protect yourself for the next couple of months, ie. If the stock goes to $15, you can still sell it for $20, or you can sell the Put that you bought for $2.00 for $5.00+ at expiration.
What I was suggesting earlier was to be a Put seller instead of a buyer. If you are not familiar with options I suggest you study them before getting into them very deep. They can be used to reduce risk if you know what you are doing.
If you want a conservative bullish play with NTRP and options, sell the Puts. I would recommend the July 19. If you can sell the JUly 10's for $3.50 and the stock is over $10 on July 19, you pocket the $3.50. If the stock is less than 10, you will have to buy NTRP at $10.00, less the $3.50 means you pay $6.50 net. You make money as long as NTRP is over $6.50 on July 19. July 19 should be just before the results so there is a good chance the stock will be over $10.00, but unlikely to be less than $6.50. Think of it as reducing your basis on the stock that you own.
Thanks for the breakdown, 6 weeks is much better than 8. It will be interesting to see if they pre-announce when the results will be released.
Thanks for the reply, I think my calculation came out that the monthly dosage quantity amount is 15,000 times larger for Namendam, so Byrostatin may be actually cheaper to produce on a dosage basis.
I am hoping that because they have gone through this process before and there are less arms, ie no 40ug, to the trial that they will be able to compile the data faster than two months this go around.
Compare the 40ug per month (20ug twice a month) for bryostatin to namenda at 20mg per day (10mg twice a day). The amount of namenda taken per month is 15,000 times more. So I do not see that the synthetic version is going to be a problem from either a cost basis or a supply basis.
If I did the math correctly 1Kilo of bryostatin at the 20ug dose 2 times per month would provide enough to treat 2million patients for a year.
At a cost per patient per month of $1k, The one kilo would generate revenue of $24B/year. If I did it correctly 2.2 lbs of bryostatin should last awhile.
I do not believe supply will be a problem given the small dosage amount and the twice monthly treatment schedule. Maybe someone can do the math on how many 1000's of patients can be treated with a kilo of bryostatin.
All propaganda to put lipstick on the pig that is AVXL.
How can you say AVXL is credible when they have produced nothing? They are a Joke.
The fact is, they have no credible data to release period. AVXL is a joke.
What is taking so long, can't they find another snake oil Dr to review it. LOL