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Good, point Coach. I surmise she is already short and does not plan on shorting any more, or she would have waited to short at a higher price and then let the world know what a genius she is.
Then - she claims that even if it works, then the adverse effects will make it not useful. Yet none of the previous trials has shown that, including the fact that 95 of the 108 in this trial completed. I do not think Dr Alkon will have a problem refuting this article. Hope she covers her short before it is to late.
The disclosure statement says it all.
Disclosure: I am/we are short NTRP. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Bio-stocks are not for investors with weak hearts or people that can no do their own DD.
"No more bets for me on NTRP. Holding 3000 shares at avg. of just over $4."
LOL - If that is not a bet what is?
Coach, another thing we keep getting away from is what is needed to out perform the current SOC (Namenda), is a lot less than what we are expecting. For that reason I do not see how the results will fail. Sure we could be disappointed if the results are less than what we are expecting, but as you have pointed out in the past the bar is not that high.
Yes, that was 2 years ago right after the initial data release. If people are still going by that instead of the latest data, then they are missing a great opportunity. As Dr Alon says look at the data, Lowe did not have the data 2 years ago.
What I have heard is they are shooting for mid- Sept, so my guess is the week of Sept 9, 8 weeks and counting down. This should be an interesting week also.
Nice - I would say comparing bryostatin's results to the other drug that has zero published results, is like comparing "filet mignon to pink slime ground beef."
Coach, not surprising that they latch onto the concept they can understand, ie. Inflammation. Neurons, and synapses are way to foreign.
Yes, last time it was a week or so before options expiration. On expiration day in the last few hours it went up over $7.50 and rose for awhile the next week.
Sounds like a plan for you. I dont need to hedge NTRP, I am in very good shape.
Looks like any early look at the Anavex results.
Yes, with the presentations coming up and the results being analyzed, now expanded PR, I'd say management is getting ready for a plethora of good news.
Coach here's the link you must be on the road.
http://www.neurotrope.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AAIC2019REVISED.pdf
Also note the info on the trial being complete and data being finalized.
"In the current confirmatory trial, there are two treatment arms:
20 µg bryostatin and placebo, randomized 1:1, stratified as in the first trial by
disease severity of MMSE-2 4-9 or 10-15, with a final total number of 95 completed
patients. Patient participation has recently been completed in the current trial and
data is now being finalized for analysis."
Coach - I agree with your PM assessment. I would expect it to be official soon, maybe in the morning. Do you know when it was revised?
Thanks
The article includes everything that I posted. There is no results. The drop out rate was so high that the completers probably do not have AD> These are the facts about A2-73.
1) Only 25 patients were on the drug for over 5 weeks non controlled study.
"The findings must be interpreted cautiously. The phase IIa study was designed to assess safety and tolerability; cognitive and functional endpoints were secondary. It comprised only 32 patients at baseline, 25 of whom completed both the 5-week, randomized, dose-finding, crossover trial and the 52-week, open-label, extension study. There was no placebo comparator. Instead, the study used three different sets of historical control data taken from other Alzheimer’s studies."
2) 98% had adverse events as stated.
"Nearly all patients (98%) had some sort of adverse event, but most of them were mild transitory dizziness or headache; 76% of the events were grade 1, and 2% were grade 2. There were no serious adverse events. Three subjects dropped out because of adverse events (delirium, dizziness, and a combination of confusion, disorientation, and lethargy).
3) There is no published results for the actual trial.
An Extension Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease
The safety and scientific validity of this study is the responsibility of the study sponsor and investigators. Listing a study does not mean it has been evaluated by the U.S. Federal Government. Read our disclaimer for details.
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02756858
Recruitment Status : Active, not recruiting
First Posted : April 29, 2016
Last Update Posted : May 17, 2018
Sponsor:
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Information provided by (Responsible Party):
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Study View No Results How to Read a Study Record
No Study Results Posted on ClinicalTrials.gov for this Study
About Study Results Reporting on ClinicalTrials.gov
Recruitment Status : Active, not recruiting
Estimated Primary Completion Date : November 2020
Estimated Study Completion Date : November 2020
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02756858?view=results
No-I am not misinformed, the information on 2-73 is totally Missleading. The article was published in March 2017, by Michele G. Sullivan with the Mid-Atlantic News for Frontline Medical. What I said is true, no-peer reviewed results, promising for ever, and Fact, only 25 AD patients that have taken the drug for over 5 weeks, 98% of 36 AD patients in the 2-73 AD 2a trial had adverse effects, "3 had to drop out from adverse events including delirium, dizziness, and a combination of confusion, disorientation, and lethargy" per Dr MacFarlane.
"We will have that data soon, released in a peer reviewed publication. "
LOL - That story has been told for how many years now? Same old, same old coming soon, just wait, it cures everything. Fact, no trial data, only 25 AD patients that have taken the drug for over 5 weeks, 98% of 36 AD patients in the 2-73 AD 2a trial had adverse effects, "3 had to drop out from adverse events including delirium, dizziness, and a combination of confusion, disorientation, and lethargy" per Dr MacFarlane.
Yes because there has not been any valid clinical results published for A2-73 that is being fooled. None of these "articles" and experts confirm that 2-73 has achieved anything. It is all about the maybe, could, might, yet no data. That is how scams are perpetrated, why is it so hard to believe that AVXL is a scam, when some believe that the FDA promotes scams for BP?
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=148337706
By using faulty documentation to make statements like, "it may" and "needs to be looked into further". Mayo did no research on 2-73, they quoted non peer reviewed articles, (probably bought and paid for by AVXL).
LOL - Then that must be why he bailed from AVXL, figured out he was losing credibility being associated with a company that cant create credible trial results.
Yes, ESAI finally made AVXL take his name of their web site. but what can you expect from a company that does nothing but distort the truth and provide Missleading information.
Actually, for all the BS about how Hampel is the guru for A-273, the fact is that he goes where the money is and publishes what he thinks will get him a bigger pay check. My question is if he believes that AVXL will succeed why bale, the answer is he doesnt.
LOL - Hempel was so impressed he bailed on AVXL for an Amyloid trial drug company. The facts I listed are all documented facts. You provide speculation and hope and a prayer, for a drug which is probably a placebo, not valid peer reviewed trial data.
Those are all documented facts, what is Pure Fiction is that there is any trail results that show anything different for A-23/ Not valid trial results, no peer reviewed data, not a credible stsock to invest in. Sorry no amount of Missleading info will change the facts about AVXL.
Antti, you are right on about AVXL, can you imagine investing in an AD drug that has only 25 patients that have taken the drug for over 5 weeks? Plus their 36 patient flawed trial had 98% report adverse effects with 3 having such bad reactions they had to drop out, and these are mild AD patients. Then on top of that they go open label with two sets of 8 patients, with different dosages being compared to each other and claiming that because one set of 8 is declining faster than the other it some how proves the drug is effective. No placebo arm, nearly 100% side effects, a nearly 60% dropout rate for a group (MCI to moderate) where the mis-diagnosis rate is nearly 40% not including the placebo effect. Tell me how this is not fake medicine and why any sane person would invest in AVXL.
Coach, I think you are right with the AXSM comparison at least on a relative basis. I am expecting a slower increase than what others are predicting here. Not because the stock would not be worth it, but because it is a 2b and not a P3 trial and it will take a while for time lines to become clear. A lot of investors of AD stocks have been burnt making big bets on P2 results, so unless there is a BP partnership I think it goes up slower than it should.
What additional shares you referring to. The expansion of the authorized options? Those I believe are already granted I believe, so I don't know why that would affect any PR's.
What is also amazing is that the 36 patient mild AD P2a trial for A2-73 had
adverse effects for 98% of the patients, 3 had to drop out because of adverse effects of (delirium, dizziness, and a combination of confusion, disorientation, and lethergy). Only 25 of the 36 completed the trial and only 16 continued on in the open label extension.
Sure glad bryostatin 1 has shown better safety than that. Where would we be if only 25 people had taken the drug for over 5 weeks.
You read it correctly the first time, there are some that have a hard time with science and discerning what valid trial data is. Then there are some that have made poor investment choices because they bought on hype and not valid trial data, ie they were Mislead and now are afraid NTRP will succeed.
Thanks Cyosol, The part about academia sticking to the Amyloid hypothesis because that was where the money was for research is telling. Makes you appreciate the Rockefeller family for establishing BRNI and Dr Alkon for going there to solve the real problem.
Also the part about BP management not taking any risks when academia was making excuses for every failed Amyloid trial shows how inbred the process is/was. I think the same is true for instutions investing in small bio companies going outside the Amyloid tract.
Yes I agree, especially after Janney has predicted a 100% chance that the 2b results will be confirmed. ;)
"Ongoing Phase II Study Should Confirm Bryostatin’s Efficacy. ...
We believe the design of the ongoing Phase II study should support the exploratory findings from the previous Phase II study. The prespecified exploratory findings demonstrated significant improvement in SIB score compared to placebo at Week 13 and the average of Weeks 13 and 15 in patients who were not taking memantine. Upon confirmation of efficacy, Neurotrope plans to initiate a Phase III study in the same patient population (moderately severe to severe AD). "
Biggest advantage would be only one P3 trial of 6 months before applying for approval.
Thanks BR, good stuff confirming what most here have been saying.
Someone will have to sell because the demand will so high and the float is only 9.8m shares. Plus everyone knows that when the market cap gets to be greater than AVXL, people will sell their AVXL and buy NTRP, because that will prove the science. ;)
I agree, it is going to get interesting.
PS I thought I would be the first to send you a snarky post today. :)
Gee wiz they couldnt find anybody that wanted to sell their stock for less than $8.00. Whats going on here Coach? LOL
Looks like an unlimited supply at $8.15 for a while not breaking more to the upside on good volume.