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If I recall correctly, when Paul was giving numbers, it was strictly in the context of Springpole.
I meant million not thousand.
They’re both right. 150k for Springpole and 100k for Duparque for every $100 increase in gold.
Surprisingly fast. I had a conversation with management in January where it was conveyed that theoretically they could be pulling gold out of the ground by the end of this year. They said it probably wouldn’t happen that fast but it could be done. There’s not much for us to do as we wouldn’t need a full EA and we wouldn’t need to build a mill. As long as we are under 2000 tons per day, it’s a very fast approval process. There are multiple mills within 30-50 kilometers from us so we would need to make an agreement with one of those and then put together the logistics on trucking the tonnage to the chosen mill. The costs per ounce would be a bit more expensive as we would have to pay the mill a per ounce fee and we would incur the transportation cost but with gold above $2100, that’s easily digested.
The upfront cost is virtually zero. I don’t see much in the way of drawbacks to moving forward this way. Based on my conversations, I believe that FF will institute a plan for this. There would be immediate revenue and decent cash flow. In addition, I think the market would view this plan favorably.
This is going to be a long post. I’ve seen some posts lately about Dan’s performance and the share price. Here are some of my thoughts for what it’s worth. Full disclosure, I have been in this stock since 2016, I have multi seven figure share count and my average price per share is a little over .39 cents USD. I say this to show that I’m down a tremendous amount and I’m not happy about it. I also participated in the latest offering round where I picked up shares at .091 as well as the options.
I certainly recognize that at the end of the day, it is the CEO’s primary job to increase the share price for the shareholders. In that respect, current management has failed. With that said, we are in uncharted waters when it comes to the mining industry as it relates to valuations compared to the gold price. I just read an article a couple of weeks ago discussing how Barrick has never been at a lower valuation compared to their NPV (net present value) then now. In its entire history. The point being that this is not an issue affecting just us. It’s the entire mining industry. The valuations of mining companies follow 10-15 year cycles and we are at the low currently. I believe that we’ve bottomed and will begin a sustained move up. Historically, developers are valued at about .5 to NPV. At $1600 gold, our NPV is around 1.6 billion which means our current valuation is around .05 to NPV. This is undeniably the worst bear market the mining industry has ever seen. I’m not sure what Dan or for that matter Keith could do differently to make a difference the last couple of years. Based on conversations that I’ve had with them, it appears the plan has been to just keep working on Springpole and Duparque to advance them so that when the industry comes back into favor, everything lines up for our share price.
Speaking about Springpole, we’re very close to submitting our final environmental approval application. It’s slated for June or July of this year. It’s important to note that there are two ways to conduct this process. One way is to do your work, submit the application and then spend a couple of years going back and forth with the regulators answering thousands and thousands of questions, concerns and clarifications. The other way to do it is to go back and forth with the regulators ahead of time, work through all the issues prior to submitting the final draft. We opted for the second approach. If I recall, early last year we submitted a draft and after a few months, the regulators sent back 1200 questions. We responded to all of those and then a few months later, we received somewhere around 500 follow up questions to which we responded to all of those. This option takes more time to the point of final submission but much less time to get final approval after submission. By doing it this way, once you submit the final submission, you’re all but guaranteed to receive approval because you’ve already addressed all the issues prior to submission. Full approval takes about 12 months from final submission but it’s really just crossing T’s and dotting I’s. I asked management if there was ever an example of a company going this route and not receiving approval. The response was yes but only because a few companies ran into financial difficulties and shut down their operations not because the regulators denied them the environmental approvals. So essentially, once we submit the final draft, (June or July of this year) we’re on the clock for final approval. This is important because the smart money knows this as well. Institutional investors, big mining specific funds and most importantly, senior producers.
All of this is to say that I believe the bottom is in. Not just for us but the entire mining sector. That’s not to say that if the stock market were to crash that we wouldn’t experience a sharp drop as well but it would be brief and would set up an epic bull run for PM’s and miners. Looking at FF specifically, it appears to me that everything is lining up perfectly for a huge run in our stock price over the next few years. It appears the gold price has begun a sustained move up, we by all accounts are at the absolute bottom of the 10-15 year miner valuation cycle, we’re months away from final submission on one of the largest projects in North America that fits exactly into what the senior producers are looking for and desperately need and we seem to be moving forward on a small scale mining operation on Duparque (by limiting to sub 2000 tons per day, we can get approved without having to go through the tedious process of environmental approvals).
So what does all this mean to our share price? My guess is that we’ve seen the low (baring a near term stock market crash) and we will soon see our share price break above .10 and continue to appreciate as we head into the summer. I would bet that we put a deal together on Springpole with a major prior to receiving full approval which would be Q2-Q3 of 2025. If the gold price continues to go up (2400-2600), the sector comes back into favor in terms of valuations and we put a blockbuster deal together with one of the largest mining companies on the planet, I believe our share price will be magnitudes higher then it is now. Run the math yourself on what our share price would be if we just mean revert to historical norms of .5 to NPV with the gold price at $2600. I have and it’s a really big number. In short, I believe the stars are aligning for us over the next 12-18 months. We’ve weathered the storm that lasted many years longer than I ever thought possible.
And to Ron and Marv up in BC, since I know you’ll be reading this, hang tight, we’re very close to a breakout in the stock price.
Happy Thanksgiving to all the US posters here. I appreciate you guys continuing to post relevant news and thoughts on this stock and PM’s in general.
Funny you should mention that because I’ve thought the same thing over the last few months since the BRICS have started to announce their desire to come up with a settlement currency away from the dollar. One of the things keeping the hundred plus developing nations from reneging on their dollar loan obligations is that they would be cut off from dollar funding. Once this new settlement currency is fully operational (a few years away at best), these countries can simply shift from the dollar to the new currency, default on their dollar obligations and wipe the liability side of their balance sheet clean. It would be a huge help for these struggling countries and absolutely destroy the value of the dollar.
Not sure how it all plays out but I just don’t see how the dollar maintains any level of dominance over the medium term which is going to be catastrophic for 99% of Americans and will usher in a period of extreme global volatility.
It certainly feels like we are in the 11th hour of a fourth turning.
Hey SeaBlue, sorry for the delay. I don’t believe they could do that. The collateral put up for the loan would have to be free of any liens and could only be used once.
Apologies for the delay in responding, I was out of town. Yes it definitely touched on what we were discussing.
I think the August meeting for the BRICS could be a big moment for gold and dedollarization. At the very least, the BRICS nations will be releasing more info on their plans and it should get a lot of press worldwide. If they do mention gold as being part of the new settlement currency I would think a lot of people and institutions would front run that move and buy gold.
I agree. It’s interesting because I’ve read a couple of articles over the last year or two that say that China has been very quietly taking out loans from various banks using their treasuries as collateral to finance infrastructure projects in Africa. The real purpose behind the loans is to stealthily get out of US dollars without A. Crashing the treasury market and B. Prohibit the US from being able to seize those dollar assets as they did with the Russian reserves. The idea would be that at a particular moment, China would simply default on those loans and the corresponding banks would take the treasuries to satisfy the loans. In one moment, China could rid itself of a trillion dollars in treasuries without losing a penny.
It’s a very interesting theory however I have no idea if any of it is true. I guess time will tell.
One of the main reasons why the dollar demise will take longer then most people think is the fact that all the existing loans outside the US that was taken out in dollars will have to be serviced until completion in dollars. I forget how much there is exactly but let’s say that number is roughly 100 trillion dollars and the average timeframe of the loans is somewhere around 10-15 years. Even if the world completely hated and shunned the dollar, they still need to accumulate dollars until those loans are paid off. I think we’ll be seeing much less loans being taken out in dollars so we will begin to see the slow bleed in the value of the dollar but it mathematically can’t lose a ton of value overnight due to this issue.
I also think that pretty soon we will see a decoupling of the gold price to the strength of the USD. Meaning that even though the dollar strength is slowly going down, we will still see gold moving up faster then USD depreciation.
I agree, I’ve been following the commercial space for a bit now. With treasuries, the regionals could simply mark them as “hold to maturity” and count them at 100 cents on the dollar even though they were only worth 60-80 cents on the dollar. Not the case with commercial loans. Once those loans stop performing, the banks will have to mark to market them and that means big losses. They’re already a mess from a balance sheet perspective and soon they will be taking on huge additional losses. I think it’s only a matter of time until these regionals begin to fail en masse. Humorously, the only way for the FED to stop this train wreck from coming is to rather quickly take rates back to zero and print trillions of dollars of QE, which would be great for gold. FED only has two choices at this point and they are both bad and both will ultimately lead to much higher gold prices.
Ive been an aggressive buyer of FMG, FM and TM for the last 2 weeks. They may figure out how to temporarily contain this mess for a bit but at some point in the next 18 months (I would much sooner) all hell is going to break loose in the global economy and the pm’s will take off.
That’s my working theory anyways.
I have found it interesting that gold has very quietly been moving up close to an all time high and yet nothing much has been happening. SVB was a big deal but seemingly contained rather quickly (at least that’s what TPTB would like to present to us). We’re clearly heading into a recession where many more things are going to break I would guess. Point is, if gold is a stone’s throw from its all time high, where do you think it will be when something serious happens? When there’s genuine fear and panic in the streets like 08 when Lehman went down. Gold went up 430% during that run. I think it’s only a matter of time until something serious breaks in the global economy. It’s going to be a good 2023/2024 for pm’s and miners.
If you sold me 50,000 shares, it would only show up as 50,000 in volume, not 100,000.
Think of it like a restaurant. If a restaurant sells me a $40 lunch, then I would have bought that $40 lunch, the restaurant only had $40 in sales.
It’s at the transaction level, not the individual buyer and then the seller. The transaction was for 50,000 shares.
I was looking at the US exchange. I see the TSX has far more volume.
Interesting action on TM today. Up over 6% on very low volume. Shows that though there aren’t many buyers for TM currently, there’s even less sellers. Appears no one is interested in selling any of their shares at these prices.
I think that bodes well for their share price. We’ll see.
That’s interesting. It appears someone may be building a position. I find that for as close as they are to full permitting and that they have the EA in hand, they are very undervalued. I feel the same about FF but TM is just much further along and as such represents a very low risk profile. With that said, I think FF has a higher multiple potential though.
Thanks for the info on today’s trading volume.
Thanks for the reply and I absolutely agree with you on the Lassonde Curve. I only like to invest in companies I’m very familiar with and have confidence in the management team.. I’m very familiar with Auteco, Treasury and First Mining based on the former two companies purchasing projects from First Mining. I’ve often thought that a decent investing strategy would be to push heavy in TM, once they make a big move, convert the lions share to FF and then move to Auteco as each is on a different timeline on the curve.
Anyways, I appreciate you responding with your thoughts on my original post.
I’d like to bounce this off the board as there are quite a few knowledgeable individuals on here as it relates to the mining space. I’m looking for someone to play devils advocate to my logic on Treasury Metals.
Here’s my thesis:
Treasury just came out with their PFS. They have indicated and probable reserves at 1.3 million ounces of gold at a very decent grade. There’s clearly much more gold there that over time I believe they will find and they actually have quite a bit in the inferred category but that will take a couple of years of doing drill tests and updating their PFS and FS to be officially make it in the probable category. So with that said, let’s just stick with the 1.3 million known ounces. Current market cap of 29 million USD puts the market value of the gold at $22.30 per ounce in the ground. From my research, current acquisitions are going for between $80-$200 per ounce in the ground at existing gold prices. Important to point out that those numbers are for producing mines, not late stage developers such as Treasury. The difference being that Goliath has already received Environmental Approval. They still need Federal, provincial and to a degree, First Nations to sign off as well as submit the Mill plans and get that approved. However, the EA is by far the most difficult to receive. Once you have the EA, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get full approval, it really is just time consuming, paperwork shuffling for another 1 to 2 years. Wyeth stated that he believed they would be at a construction decision by Q4 2024. I see of no reason to doubt that.
At current gold prices, I would guess that once TM receives full approval, the market would value the gold at a minimum of $50-60 per ounce. Fast forward to the mill being operational and mining commencing (2026-2027), I would guess the value would be between $100-$200 per ounce. These numbers go much, much higher if the gold price were move up towards $2500 per ounce. Back in 2011 at the height of the gold bull market, the highest price per ounce paid for an acquisition was $390 per ounce for an operating mine. That was gold at $1900. $2500 gold is only a matter of when, not if.
There’s obviously risk in any investment and TM is no different. Perhaps for some unseen event, the project doesn’t get permitted, maybe the gold price dives for the next 5 years, etc. However, I find both of those risks to be incredibly slim. I also don’t think that TM can go much lower from their current price. Not to say that if for a very short time period, the economy blows up and the gold price temporarily drops to $1500 or so, I would guess TM could briefly go to .15 but that’s about it. Between now and then, there will probably be some share dilution but nothing bank breaking.
It seems to be a no brainer from where I’m sitting however back in 2016 when I bought FF, I figured I would be flying around in my G 500 by 2023 and spoiler alert, I’m still flying commercial. Lol.
I would appreciate anyone’s thoughts on this, good, bad or ugly.
Hey Implanting,
So let me throw out a disclaimer again, this was 2017 so who knows what internal changes they have made in the strategic direction department. With that said, I came away from that 1 on 1 discussion with Keith thinking there’s not a chance in hell we will ever become a producing miner at Springpole. I got to know the the former CEO (I think it’s 3 CEO’s ago) pretty well as his brother lived within a few miles from me and whenever he came into town, he would call me up and we would get together for a bite to eat or a beer. He echoed a very similar sentiment to me that he felt the long term plan would be to sell either the whole company or project by project as they de risked the mines and the sentiment in the gold and mining industry vastly improved. Based on the synergies, location and business connections, he thought the best partner to make a deal with would be Agnico Eagle.
I don’t have any info on the First Tribal Nations other then my discussions with everyone at FF, it kept coming up that the Tribal Nations work at a snails pace. The former CEO told me that the producing Seniors already have rock solid relations with the first tribal nations so he thought it would be a better approach to de risk and then deal the property to a senior who could probably make things happen much faster with a 20 year history working with the Indigenous groups.
On a side note, I do think that if Silver breaks out in the next year or two and FM goes through the roof, that would allow Keith to fend off any lowball hostile takeover bids. With FM acquiring Jarret Canyon (Gold Mine) and FM having all these issues with the Mexican mining authorities over tax disputes, Keith has given interviews where he has openly said they are interested in acquiring additional gold mines specifically outside of Mexico to diversify and strengthen the business. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that FM acquires either Springpole or possibly the whole company. Keith knows the potential of both Springpole and Duparquet. But who knows.
Either way, assuming Springpole is awarded environmental approval and the gold price soars (both of which I’m very confident will happen in time) I believe this stock will go parabolic. Until then, I wait.
Hey Alaska,
I was up at Springpole and Goldlund back in August of 2017 for one of their investor summits. We actually stayed in the Springpole camp for 2 nights. All the executives were there including Keith. Quite a few analysts as well. We toured both properties and took a boat out on Springpole Lake. I was surprised at how well built out the camp and infrastructure was. It is a massive project. One interesting takeaway which I’m sure most know here is that they only need to drain 7% of the lake. Springpole is obviously a larger project but Goldlund is only about a mile or so off a major highway (at least in that part of Canada). It’s also well built out. No need for a camp there as it’s not too far from normal housing in Sioux Falls.
They run these summits from time to time. It was well worth it to head up there and I would highly recommend doing it if you or anyone else gets the opportunity. You come away feeling very confident that at some point in the future, once these projects reach a construction decision, the market will take notice and we will be fairly valued.
A couple of interesting notes from the trip:
1. If I recall at the time, they were pretty confident that Springpole would be fully permitted within 4-5 years. 5 years from when I was there would have been August 2022. Clearly that didn’t even come close to happening as we’re still a few years away from that point.
2. I was having a chat with Keith about his thoughts for the future of FF and he said that if they decided to sell rather then mine, he wanted to be one of the last juniors or late stage developers to be taken out. He said that once the M&A starts heating up, it will become a feeding frenzy as there are a surprisingly low number of projects that fit what a Senior Producer is looking for (at least a couple of million ounces, 200,000 ounce annual production, safe mining friendly jurisdiction). Basically saying you could have 2 projects that are identical and the last guy taken out would go for multiples higher then the first guy taken out.
Bear in mind that this was in 2017 so thoughts and directions of the company could obviously have changed greatly from then to now. Also, that conversation occurred after a tremendous amount of tequila was consumed by both of us, lol.
Not sure if I really answered your question but I hope it helps.
Hey everyone, I’ve been thinking for sometime about an idea to attempt to have one of us get a seat on the board of FMG. We have some fair and valid concerns surrounding this company and I think it would be very beneficial to have a friendly voice on the inside looking out for our interests. Not sure if anyone is interested but I thought I would throw it out and have everyone kick it around. The idea is that we group our shares together, strictly from a voting sense, not from an ownership sense and give one individual our vote proxy. I have no idea how many shares each of us has but if we get to 5% of the company, we should qualify for a seat on the board. From reading everyone’s posts over the years, I believe that most of us have a decent amount and have in all likelihood had our friends and families buy shares as well. It’s tough to say how many shares would be 5% as the company has a lot of outstanding warrants that if exercised would alter the outstanding shares as a whole. Between myself and all the people I have convinced to buy shares, I have about 2% of FMG. In my humble opinion, I think that Implanting would be the obvious choice based on his knowledge of the company and activity on this board. I have no idea if he would even be interested and I’m certainly open to other individuals on here who have proven themselves extremely knowledgeable about not just this company but the industry as a whole as well. Lastly, even if we don’t have enough to get a seat, having tens of millions of shares that vote in unity on company issues will give us a much louder voice in the future direction of FMG. Let me know your thoughts and if anyone would be interested in discussing this further.
This volume over the last week has been incredible. I understand there’s a lot more interest in Silver and as a result there’s more interest in gold and miners but this volume seems way more then I would expect at the moment. It’s making me wonder if a large institution might be building a position slowly. Or possibly a senior producer interested in a potential JV deal. We’ll see if the volume continues to come in at this rate.
We’re certainly in interesting times for the pm’s.
I agree Implanting. It doesn’t make sense to me. Peter Schiff is on record as saying the same thing. I think it’s a fair assumption to say that in a few years, the federal debt will be in the 40 trillion or more neighborhood. If we raise rates to 20% due to 70’s style inflation (which I do believe is coming fairly soon), that would be 8 trillion in just interest expense give or take. The federal government brings in about 3.5 trillion in overall tax revenue.
I think a more likely scenario is that the Fed becomes the lender of last resort printing trillions and buying treasuries (and every other asset available) keeping interest rates at zero or possibly negative. This would eventually cause hyperinflation a few years later and the solution to that would be a financial reset (a new global financial currency unit).
Perhaps I’m missing something here but I just can’t see how with the debt levels in gov/biz/consumer, we can ever have rising interest rates again, or at least until this current system implodes and a new one is implemented.
Happy New Year All!
Not the year we had all hoped for however we did start out at .20 and finished at .31. Normally I would be thrilled with a 50% move but I believe that we went from incredibly severely undervalued to just severely undervalued. 2021 is setting up very nicely for the gold price and with the updated PEA and PFS coming out for Springpole and Goliath, we should see a much bigger move next year. With a little luck, we may move to simply be undervalued and break $1 usd.
I’ve certainly enjoyed reading all the great contributions and debate here. I hope everyone stays safe. See you next year!
Allow me to offer a different perspective on the recent moves by FF. Firstly, I’m not a huge fan of the PC deal and have commented as such in the past. However, we did get 125,000,000 shares of Auteco. Their share price is currently .143 usd which equates to $17,875,000 value we received for the sale. Based on recent news from them on how much gold they believe they have there, I suspect that Auteco stock will do quite well over the next year or two. I don’t think it’s out the question for Auteco to hit around $1 usd at some point in the future with everything they are doing and the anticipated price of gold rising. Possibly more then $1. Now we’re talking about getting 125 million in value for that deal plus royalties. Again though, I think Auteco got a much better deal then we did.
Secondly, if you go back and read and watch the videos concerning the streaming deal with FM, Dan is saying that they have all they need for Springpole to get through permitting. The Majestic deal provided all the cash and the stock to the engineering firm provided all the logistics to pull Springpole through permitting. There would be no further dilution required for Springpole. I think Dan did an atrocious job at conveying that message and at the very least, he should conduct a webinar to set the record straight and explain to existing investors and potential new investors why the deal was made for the financing and what the money will be used for.
Lastly, FF, prior to this deal had very very low reserves financially. If I were a betting man (which I am), I would bet that Keith and company believe that we’re at the precipice of a monumental shift within the global financial architecture that will see a flood of money coming into the PM space both from stock investors as well as M&A activity and that they want to get moving on derisking both Cameron and Hope Brooke to take prime advantage of that shift. These things take both time and money to do. The process of first drilling to find additional gold and moving existing ounces from inferred to indicated and then starting the permitting process and releasing a PEA takes a couple of years and millions and millions of dollars that we simply didn’t have. Imagine for a moment that we close a couple of deals in the next two years for those two properties worth 300-500 million dollars. The $25 million we got in financing will be directly responsible for that. Well worth a 6% dilution in my opinion.
There wasn’t a whole lot of options here if the plan was to get to work on those two properties. I think Dan is magnitudes better then the previous regimes of late though he desperately needs to do a better job clearly articulating current moves and future plans.
Just my thoughts on the matter.
I agree. The PickleCrow deal is a bit of a head scratcher. Maybe there’s something there I’m not seeing. I’m sure the shares FF owns in Auteco will be worth a lot more but I would have much preferred a deal that resembled the Treasury/Goldlund deal.
Back in 2011 at the height of the gold price, a miner sold to a major (I forget which one it was now) for $390 per ounce in the ground. The current gold price exceeds that of 2011 as we are all aware. These majors are going to be flush with cash very soon and Wall Street wants to see them replinish their reserves or they hammer their stock price. Gold is going to $2500 and then $3000 and then higher. We’re going to see projects sell for $400-$600 per ounce in the ground over the next few years. Springpole has 5 million ounces in the ground and they will probably find more. The financials are incredible on that project as it’s very cheap to extract the gold. If the price of gold goes to $2500-$3000 and that project gets permitted (both of which I firmly believe will happen), then Springpole should be valued at $2.5 billion at a value of $500 per ounce in the ground. With 750 million shares outstanding, that would be worth $3.33 per share.
I was at both Springpole and Goldlund back in 2017 for one of their company sponsored marketing trips. They are both amazing properties.
I think it will take a couple more years but I feel strongly that our share price will be magnitudes higher. I’ve been in this for a little over 4 years and unfortunately, I’m still about 8 cents underwater. At the end of the day though, when we’re at $3-$5 a share, none of us are going to be concerned with what price we bought in at. We’ve all gone through the second guessing and struggle phase, lol. This next phase will be the fun part.
Btw, thanks for all your posts Implanting, you’re certainly keeping this board active and informed.
I’m basing the valuation on the amount of gold on both properties and the economies of scale that will be achieved by combining the two projects. Treasury is ridiculously undervalued which is why I think Keith and Dan wanted to do the deal with them. Goliath is essentially permitted. They only have to get approval for infrastructure. It’s the environmental permits that are hard to get and that’s all been accomplished. Bear in mind my price target is post 3 to 1 share consolidation.
We were getting zero value for Goldlund. If we had done a deal with a Major, their share price would barely move by adding Goldlund to their massive portfolio. At the end of the day, I personally don’t think that FF or Treasury will ever actually mine one ounce of gold. I beilieve that over the next 12-24 months, we’re going to see a feeding frenzy of M&A going on in this space. I would bet that both FF and Treasury get bought out by Majors or Mid-tiers inside of 3 years from now along with a ton of other developers and junior miners.
What we bought was a 43% ownership stake in Treasury. We’re still getting exactly 43% of the company. In that respect nothing is changing. It’s no different then if I offered you 10 $1 bills or just gave you 1 $10 bill. The share consolidation will help with less shares in float and certain exchanges require a higher per share price to be listed as well as certain institutional funds are prohibited to purchase stocks that are under a certain per share price. But I do agree that the company could have done a better job of explaining the mechanics of the rollout.
We will be getting 1/3 the amount of shares we would have received pre consolidation. However, the Treasury shares will be worth 3 times what they were before. Treasury is at .46 usd today, if the split happened on Monday, the shares would be revalued at $1.38. It all works out the same. Assuming there is not any additional dilution, I have FF shareholders receiving 3.1% Treasury shares for however many shares they hold in FF.
Example: you own 1000 FF shares, you will receive 31 Treasury shares.
I’ve assumed that all outstanding warrants and options in FF are exercised which will take the total Outstanding shares from 630,000,000 to 750,000,000. I think it’s a safe bet that with the share appreciation in FF, all of those will be exercised.
Side note, in my opinion, Treasury shares should be in the $12-$15 range once Goldlund receives all necessary permits and the project merges with Goliath. My guess is that will be in 2-3 years. That assumes a static gold price which I believe will be much higher so there’s only upside to this target.
Thanks Value, and I appreciate all your statistical analysis. I know that’s not easy and is very time consuming. I’ve really enjoyed reading those posts from you, very informative.
Jim Rogers isn’t right quite yet. He has been saying that he was not a buyer of Gold since gold was at 1200 or so. He has said that he would be waiting for the deflationary crash that would take gold below $1000 per ounce and then he would convert from USD to gold in a big, big way. Time will tell if he was correct or not.
As far as the current situation goes, I firmly believe that within 1 to 2 weeks, the US will be under some form of quarantine. It’s the only thing that will stop the virus from spreading. Every other country that has had an outbreak has instituted the same policy and we will be no different (China, SK, Italy, Spain, France, soon to be Germany, etc.)
The economic output of this country will grind to practically zero for at least a couple of months. The Fed brought out there bazooka a couple of days ago for the repo market. Next week, they will be bringing out the nukes. Rates are going to zero and over the next couple of months, literally everyone will be getting a bailout. There will be small business bailouts, medium business bailouts, mortgage payments delayed, tax filing delays, student loan forgiveness, tax cuts for everyone and in all likelihood, helicopter money for all. If they don’t do this, millions will default on their loans and that will bring down all the banks. If the banks go down, we’ll be sent back to the Stone Age as supply lines freeze, there is no credit and all hell breaks loose. In the very near future, the Fed and the government will print trillions to save the banks, trillions to save the markets and trillions to save consumers.
In the 07/08 crises, the Fed dropped rates to zero and printed 3.7 trillion dollars over 6 years to stabilize the system. Gold started at 700 prior to the crash, then it dipped to around 400 after some months due to deflation (this is what Rogers was predicting). Then it took off like a rocket from 400 to over 1900 over the next few years. They essentially committed to printing 3.7 Trillion dollars a few days ago between the repo market and a bit of QE (60 billion a month) and that was really just for the banks. We’re in the first inning of a nine inning ballgame. They are going to print tens of trillions in the next couple of years. And if they don’t, the system collapses as no one will be able to pay their loans (biz and consumer).
Gold may fluctuate in the near term and be quite volatile but in the medium term, assuming TPTB haven’t figured out how to break the laws of economics, gold will go parabolic and nothing will stop it. Maybe we hit 3000, maybe we hit 5000 or maybe 10000 per ounce. Regardless, it’s going up a lot and at some point, all miners will join in going parabolic.
This is obviously just my opinion, but logically speaking this is the ONLY route this thing goes. I’ve been in this stock for 4 years and am down substantially. Not happy about it but am confident that what we have all been waiting for is just around the corner.
Good luck to all of you!
I think that everyone here believes that it’s simply a matter of time until gold moves up in a big way. At the end of the day, the price of gold is the main driver of this stock. If gold were to push through 1500 my guess would be that FF moves past $1 usd and possibly higher. As such, we’re in a gold price waiting game. The most important thing for FF is the ability to finance itself until the day comes that gold moves up. I think they had 6-7 million in the bank at last check. They are going to need more to be comfortable in weathering the gold price storm for the next year or longer. I would ask Dan what the plans are for raising additional capital. Stock sale? Bank Loan? Sell off a couple of properties, etc.
I agree with both of your comments. I have a working theory that the reset will happen at some point once all is prepared and on their timeline. It will be a controlled reset (it will be chaotic but still controlled by tptb). Throughout history whenever fiat currencies have collapsed, the only way for confidence to be re asserted, is for the new currency to be backed by something tangible. We also know that the end game goal is to advance globalism with a one world currency. My theory is that post reset, the IMF will introduce the SDR to the mainstream and have it backed by Gold. Since they will be the only ones selling the SDR the central banks around the world will buy SDR’s wth the gold they hold. This will transfer the bulk of physical gold to the IMF and make it easily backed by a tangible asset. Now you have a stateless globalist institution with trillions of gold (post gold price reset to reflect debt payoff levels) that will easily become the most powerful entity in the world. I would guess that since gold is hated by governments and banks based on the fact it cannot be printed at will and requires fiscal prudence, somewtime down the road in 20-30 years, they will simply close the gold window ala Nixon in 1971 and have this new currency become digital fiat.
I obviously have zero evidence of this and could be totally off the mark but I find it to be a potential outcome that satisfies the current debt problems, satisfies the need for confidence post reset with a tangibly backed currency, it satisfies the goal of globalism, it allows for the transfer of all CB gold to one central, unelected power, and finally it satisfies the need to get back to the ability to print at will down the road.
Outside of the fact that whatever is coming, it’s going to be ugly and catastrophic, I’m rather fascinated to see how it all plays out.
Agreed, considering it’s late October, we could see a lot more selling pressure over the next month and a half. Although, one would assume that if we go any lower, new parties would jump in at these incredibly discounted price. However, I would have thought that was the case in the .30’s and clearly that was not the case.
I’m guessing that the weakness we’re seeing here is tax selling. A lot of people got in this stock over the last couple of years in the .50’s and .60’s (Unfortunately, I’m one of them with an avg. of .59).
FYI, Derek left the company a month ago.
We’re getting closer to our time. Housing appears to have peaked, auto sales are basically collapsing. Those are two big components of the US economy. I believe that interest rate hikes are finally filtering into the mainstream economy. Every measurable category of debt is at all time record highs; auto, house, credit card, student loan debt, corporate and govt. All those corporations borrowed trillions over the last 5 or so years at 1% interest rates for stock buybacks and are now rolling that debt over at 3-4%. The good companies will have less profit due to increased debt servicing costs, the bad companies (aka zombie corporations) will begin to default in 2019. The Fed is committed to continue raising. At some point, something is going to break and we will have another Lehman event. My money is on Deutsche Bank or the Italian Banking System but it could be anything. The Fed will be forced to move back to Zirp or possibly Nirp and restart QE, only this time 4-5 trillion won’t even come close to stabilizing the system. I’m thinking 10’s of trillions this go around. Massive inflation moves in and gold should move in a parabolic fashion. That’s just stage one. The second act will involve the world dropping the devalued USD as the reserve currency. Then all hell breaks loose.
I believe this is the beginning of this process and short of the Fed reversing course on hikes and QT, nothing will stop this from playing out. Could take a year to complete or maybe a few years but regardless, it’s coming.
Ok, let's start with Springpole. Yes, there are concerns of permitting however, FF is not trying to do anything that hasn't already been permitted and mined multiple times before. Goldlund has 2.3 million ounces and has no permitting issues whatsoever. That's a big project that the majors would love to have. All the mines are in incredibly mining friendly jurisdictions which only enhance the appeal and add value. Lastly, Keith has built multiple billion dollar companies and I highly doubt he would destroy his credibility by pumping and dumping a penny stock that he is Chairman and Founder of.
Step back from the ledge, we just need a bit more time.
On a side note, if the Middle East continues to hurtle towards war with all the problems going on in Saudi Arabia, we just may see a much higher gold price pretty soon.