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Tidewater's first financial report after emerging from bankruptcy contained no real surprises, revenues continue to decrease as vessels roll off lucrative legacy contracts, either adding to an already heavily oversupplied spot market or getting stacked right away. While EBITDA was still slightly positive, operating activities consumed roughly $18 million in cash.
The Kalani Warrants will continue to overhang the stock. A 10 day period of trading above an EMV of $5 million will conclude November 16th, so the threat of Containership being delisted will be removed.
With an earnings release looming on November 17th, the gravitational pull of valuation will continue to drag the stock down. Discounted NAV points to a FMV for Containerships below $3.
Diana Containerships will release Q3 earnings before the open on Friday, November 17th.
I don’t disagree a lot of price manipulation. But low oil prices means a lot less investment in replacement reserves that my main point. At some point that production has to roll over significantly.
Nice feedback. I would agree with your comments. Happy to hold this one long term.
It’s consolidating after a large move in my opinion. Don’t have a reason to think downside is huge but waiting to confirm bottom before adding a lot more.
Yes they are both indexes. It should be an indicator of investor confidence in the shipping sector.
I? haven’t gotten that in depth to say for sure but believe it’s a good business but just too much debt. These guys just don’t learn.
Good points. Seems like subsidies are required to truly make it work. Are there good programs still in place. Been a while since I’ve been in bio fuel Investments heavy.
Glad to see some new faces here. Welcome aboard.
Hey that’s the beauty of this. We all in this together. The more informed the better we all are!
Investment in 2016 was little more than half the peak level of 2014, when oil prices started to fall sharply. The fall in investment in 2015 and 2016 totaled $345 billion in what could be called an unprecedented contraction.
Upstream oil and gas investment continued to tumble in 2016, falling 26% in nominal terms to $434 billion, which was close to the rate of decline in 2015, according to the International Energy Agency’s 2017 World Energy Investment report.
Agreed completely. I? like where this is going.
Yes into Shale. But that’s only about 5% of global production. Most replacement reserves have to come from mega projects.
Hahahaha yes!
Would agree on that. As prices inch up more production comes online but there is only so much available after a number of higher highs and high lows before macro declines drop.
What about terminal reservoir declines globally. Even if demand stays flat we have to invest in replacement reserves about 5% a year and these capex budgets have not been made on Marco basis.
I want to meet this dude! Haha (had to) but yes I’ve been very impressed.
On an adjusted basis for the third quarter of this year, Delek U.S. reported adjusted net income of $65.3 million or $0.81 per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $17.3 million or a negative $0.28 per basic share in the prior year period.
I’ve been long DK for a while and supportive of this consolidation. Very favorable for the future.
Yes Texan!
For the third quarter of 2017, Delek U.S. reported net income of $104.4 million or $1.29 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $161.7 million or negative $2.61 per basic share in the third quarter of last year.
$LEXG - "As one of the longest standing names in the lithium, petro-lithium, and lithium technology industry, we will use all of our connections and capabilities to get this outstanding invention to market next year. Ultimately this is a very small expense for tremendous upside if we can bring the right financial and strategic partners to the table. We have a very talented inventor who will stay on board and a great foundation of patents to work with."
$LEXG "This portfolio represents the classic story of an inventor who got his technology close to the finish line and ran out of funds. We have done a lot of due diligence on the patents and feel that, with the right financial partner in the US, his batteries could be selling online in less than six months," commented CEO Alex Walsh.
Agree it’s nice to see solid track record from CEO Helm and Network 1. All fully reporting companies. Likely just a matter of time. In terms of a deal, that is yet to be determined but if Network 1’s history is any kind of a tell, since this is an in house deal it’s likely the will deliver. I’m working on dude diligence on past placements they have done and will post here.
Bankruptcy if recapitalization. Debt is not your friend here. I’m either case likely only a short term trade if you can find the swings. Risk profile is high until this pans out.
Would agree with that timeline or sooner. Already seeing some rebalancing occurring. My comment however was based on ability produce large new reserves when declines set in. Shale is the only one that can scale up fast.
To me this makes a lot of sense but on a global basis. The stronger the supply chain the better execution and of course margins.
I? suppose you could look at a synergy along those lines but WTI is price of commodity it’s not an index.
Baltic is an indication of how robust and asset class is in this case shipping.
Are you estimating shale will be able to grow substantially beyond that period?
Is this due to expectations of better recoveries as high grade sections of shale have already shown declines.
Agree with most of your points. Exports initially brought the spread to almost nothing but has maintained since. Do you think it will tighten again as more exports scale up?
That’s good to hear. Do you think China has legs to really keep it going to risk of bubble?
$GE - The stock is down 37% this year. That's quite an achievement in a bubbly market that's up 15%. But that doesn't make GE a bargain, and it could fall much further.
Earnings-per-share (EPS) was 89 cents in 2016, which means the trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 22.4. Guessing GE's "normal" EPS is a tricky business. It was $2.17 in 2007, but as low as (minus) $-0.62 in 2015. This is a business lurching from crisis to restructuring, and as such, the risks are higher than usual. Working out the steady state earnings potential is a minefield.
Penny, did you mean $UGAZ? Normally when supplies are down its bullish. If not curious your rationale. Thanks.
This is geared toward short term trades I? agree. Good to play the swings.
If supplies are up so is $DGAZ I don’t see it the other way around. What am I? missing?
$COP Future shale growth will be front-loaded, says OPEC, as drillers seek out new fields and aggressively exploit current shale deposits. Yet OPEC admitted that shale will capture more market share in the short term, likely out-competing OPEC output. The group will probably commit to an extension of production cuts when it meets on November 30, and those cuts could extend to the end of 2018 and beyond, in order to raise prices.
$REI Total U.S. production will increase by 3.8 million bpd by 2022, chiefly on the back of increased shale output, equal to seventy-five percent of production growth outside the fourteen members of OPEC.
$UWT $EOG By 2021, oil demand will increase by 2.3 million bpd, a fairly bullish projection. OPEC expects fierce competition with North American shale producers for market share, particularly when regulations on shipping fuel take effect in 2020, increasing refinery demand for fuels that shale producers will be well-positioned to provide.