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Found it while looking at some MJ stocks...glad I did not get into those and got into ICNB instead!
Getting into it late last year...wow. Not so fortunate. Late January.
Unless of course it's in a Roth IRA :)
Agreed regarding scrutiny...it is needed. IMO the difference is substantiation.
For example, saying the A/S are going to double without a link to the company announcing it was so would be bashing.
Still hoping they produce a non-alcoholic version for us to try. $100 million market as of a couple years ago...
http://nypost.com/2015/01/10/non-alcoholic-beer-and-wine-are-hot-but-do-they-taste-good/
There has been some discussion about it being bought out and in my opinion it will happen after U.S. distribution is all set up and international distribution is as well. By then revenues will be very high 8 figures or low 9 figures and the stock will be in dollars. This is a late 2017-2018 timeframe...
Maybe a dream, but in my opinion possible.
Seems out of date...should be some bottles marking the Chicago area already. And how about CA?
In 'till end of 2018 or when they are bought out at least!
I just bought a copy of the 2/20/17 People magazine here in the Twin Cities MN. The Bellissima Processo is mentioned in the yellow circle on page 77 near the end of the article on CB and her daughters.
Has anyone in CA seen the Bellissima yet?
Oh yeah. Here we go!
Total nonsense. Now all 0.03's on the ask at L2 and may yet break 0.03 before the end of the day.
Looks like a bit of a wall just below .03. Probably just intraday and soon broken.
Nice yes...will be even better when we get some volume to go with the uptrend...50-75 million shares traded would be a start.
A lot of interesting discussion about short term trading, but I am looking at the 12-18 month window.
Any predictions for price a year from now?
Still long and strong.
A distribution agreement for CA could be significant.
For CY 2015, wine consumption in CA = 9,797,000 9 liter cases or 88,173,000 bottles, 45% of worldwide consumption of 21,800,000 9 liter cases or 196,200,000 bottles. CA consumption of 9,797,000 cases is 87% of total U.S. consumption of 11,209,000 cases.
Source: www.wineinstitute.org/resources/statistics/article121
Using stervc's message #71782 0.186 profit margin and P/E of 45:
10% CA market = 8,817,300 bottles x 19.99/bottle = $176,257,827
176,257,827 x 0.1860 = $32,783,956/814,790,609 shares = $0.0402 EPS
10% of world market = 19,620,000 bottles x 19.99/bottle = $392,203,800 x 0.1860 = $72,949,907/814,790,609 shares = $0.0895 EPS x 45 P/E = $4.03 est. share price in maybe 2-3 years
10% of the market may be quite optimistic but CB makes it possible, IMO.
And at least part of the entertainment is my doing for bringing up/instigating the organic and sulfites issue in the first place ;)
Totally hilarious!!
Excellent post, very informative. Knew the part about organic as most items I eat are organic. Obtaining certification as organic is not easy and has a limiting effect on supply (most farms don't have the certification)...the reason for raising the potential issue about supply.
Put in the suggestion (as I have before with other items)...sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. With some of the items they ended up carrying, it may not have been based on my suggestion (such as organic bannanas and Field Roast sausages).
Thanks, didn't think so, Christie is a longtime vegetarian and would not go along with anything artificial in the wine. The confirmation is good to hear.
I have not seen a bottle of it, have you? How do you know it has preservatives added?
I asked at Costco and they did not have it yet.
Excellent points. She is everything to this company and its stock.
The wild card may be that the wine is organic. The supply of conventional grapes may be ok but not sure about the supply of organic grapes (it is as I understand it organic wine).
The only potential weakness I can think of is meeting demand for product.
JP, I like your numbers (better than stervc's from message #71782)!
Using stervc's profit margin of 0.1860 and P/E of 45:
-218,000 cases per month x 12 months= 2,616,000 cases/year
-2,616,000 cases x 6 bottles/case = 15,696,000 bottles
-15,696,000 bottles x $19.99/bottles = $313,763,040 annual revenues
-$313,763,040 x 0.1860 net profit margin = $58,359,925 annual net profit
$58,359,925 net profit/814,790,609 outstanding shares = $0.0716 EPS
Using a P/E of 45 (same as from the 2 previously referenced messages): 45 x $0.0716 = $3.22/share
Maybe more when international sales are included, see my message #72752 and reference from www.wineinstitute.org/resources/statistics/article121
21,800,000 cases sold (consumed) market for sparkling wine/champagne worldwide in 2015. Now if we can get 20% of THAT, we'll be at $8+/share! Fun to dream, isn't it?
Note that 9,797,000 (45%) cases of the total 21,800,000 cases were
from California, and there is a big announcement due about distribution from there.
Agreed and with several other posters also. The lack of volume is a bit surprising given the news. A lot of folks must be taking a long weekend!
Based on stervc's numbers
Current ICNB valuation $0.02695/share
$19.99/bottle and 6 bottles/case with a 0.1860 net profit margin and P/E ratio of 45
-1,826 cases sold/month x 6 bottles/case = 10,956 bottles/month
-10,956 bottles/month x $19.99 = $219,010 monthly revenue
-$219,010 monthly revenue x 12 months = $2,628,120 annual revenue
-$2,628,120 annual revenue x .1860 net profit margin = $488,830 net income
-$488,830/814,790,609 shares outstanding = $0.0006 EPS
-$0.0006 x 45 P/E ratio = $0.027
Note: 1,826 cases sold/month x 12 = 21,912 cases/year
Some differences due to rounding but pretty close. The point of the analysis is IMO they are selling a lot more than 1,826 cases a month right now (at least 10 times that amount IMO) so the stock price should be at least a 10 bagger between now and release of the annual financial statement IMO.
There is an interesting comparison between the 2100 cases ordered by the Chicago distributor Winebow Group alone per message #72087 and the 1,826 cases sold per month or 21,912 cases sold annually per current ICNB market valuation. Perhaps the market does not believe that much is being sold or the P/E ratio is much lower than 45.
www.wineinstitute.org/resources/statistics/article121
Optimistically, let's say that with Christie B leading the effort, ICNB can capture 10% of the annual worldwide 21,800,000 cases sold market for sparkling wine/champagne (they show 9 liters in a case) or 2,180,000 9 liter cases
-2,180,000 cases x 9 bottles/case = 19,620,000 bottles
-19,620,000 bottles x 19.99/bottle = $392,203,900
-$392,203,900 x.1860 net profit margin = $72,949,907 net income
-$72,949,907/814,790,609 outstanding shares = $0.0895 EPS
-$0.0895 EPS x 45 P/E ratio = $4.03/share
Any way we can get that price per share to $15-20? Oh well, dreaming is fun! Sorry about the length of the message, I was having fun. Corrections, comments, and alternate opinions welcome!
Thanks for the advice, I did follow it and 400k more @0.025
Just got another 400k at 0.025 for a total of 1.5M averaged the cost to 0.027. Feeling pretty lucky that I got those shares at that price with the news coming out.
Prayer to the penny stock gods:
Please, please, please oh please let it stay around 0.02 or less so I can buy some more shares when my funds clear!!!
That price you named sounds good to me and would gladly wait 2-3 years for it.
I have a question for the board, and especially, for people who have a food & beverage background...can this brand sustain, or is it just a 6-12 month one trick pony?
Still long and strong...Thanks!
Thanks! Holding out for $12-15, think it's possible sometime later in 2018 after national product rollout complete and international rollout well underway.
This is such a hot concept/product that I am thinking there is some risk of supply/distribution concerns (had mentioned this briefly earlier). Specifically...will they be able to ramp up capacity timely in order to avoid losing customers because product is not available on the shelves? At that point, customers may move on to the next thing and company growth could then stall.
If they can effectively manage the above challenge in a cost effective manner, I could see this thing hitting $20 within 2 years.
The above opinion is based on my perception of the DD posted/communicated by others far more knowledgeable and experienced than I (those who have been shareholders since last year and the CEO). You should know that I am not very good at predicting short term stock price movement (otherwise would not have paid $0.029 earlier today, would have waited)!
Impressed (and a bit envious, I have to admit) with those who got in at $0.001 and less. Still feeling very good about getting in at $0.029 this am.
True enough...points well taken. Then again, she is in a different generation than the Judds or Dixie Chicks. Seems to have a bit different business sense...62 years can give you that and I can relate to that too.
If anyone had marketed vegan sugar free wine 24 years ago (when I adopted the vegan lifestyle), it would have been a complete waste of time.
Now, with 2/3 of the country overweight, 1/3 obese, diabetes basically an epidemic...vegan sugar free wine lets everyone have their cake and eat it too. From a marketing standpoint...perfect.
Endanger product sales? Well, I suppose we could have Danny DeVito as the spokesperson instead (read that this was actually contemplated at one point).
My feeling is that she will totally make product sales take off. Media always wants to know what she is up to and she is more than happy to accommodate = free advertising when she goes on TV to get interviewed.
In pennyland have seen multiple companies that were pure speculation and momentum (no sales or maybe 100-200K; no profit or hope of profit) go to $2-3 pretty fast from pennies, in 1-2 years.
This one seems to have quite a bit more substance to it. A 9 figure net worth superstar model advertising the product on TV doesn't hurt.
The vegan/organic health angle is a rapidly growing area also. Diabetes is an epidemic in the U.S. Something that everyone can drink that is healthy and tastes good.
Thanks!
Sounding a bit self centered here...hope I can get some shares before that doggone CA announcement because that announcement will gap this thing past 0.05 for sure.
I wonder if they would consider a non-alcoholic version of Bellissimo. My spouse and I are teetotalers and would love to try it. Fairly significant market, about $100 million for November 2013-November 2014 per the NY Post:
http://nypost.com/2015/01/10/non-alcoholic-beer-and-wine-are-hot-but-do-they-taste-good/
Kind of an obvious idea but I did send an email to the CEO suggesting it. Will post the response if I get one.
I see this company as potentially about 1/2 of Monster (previously referenced by other posts), which has a share price of around $42 and a P/E of about 38 (still rated as a buy at those levels, I might add). Will be so bold as to predict this could happen by the end of 2018. Introducing a non-alcoholic option could help close that gap.
Just my subjective opinion ;)
When the company really takes off, will be interesting to see how this all plays out, i.e. who ends up with the gold. The company officers and longtime shareholders obviously will.
Looks like a good opportunity here.
The primary risk may be that they will not be able to meet demand and that will stunt the company's growth. What do some of the more experienced hands think of this risk?
Hoping to get in next week under $0.04