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What a disappointment. I did so love this board, (quiet and simple) and to see the nonsense begin is very disappointing.
The upside for both being absolutely immense over the next several months for countless reasons, all at a time when such consolidation in the industry being done for absolutely unreasonable values more and more...(This infinitely wiser than has been seen as of late......smh)
To see the nonsense when so much upside (for things at their low's) is just absurd smh....lol.
GLD wrap up the Tahoe, TRTC with countless major permits due for announcements in the next 30 days as well as sites currently under development, coupled with additional vertical integration (for both) in CA/NV, going into elections with favorable outcome?....
Too much potential upside for both to even entertain the crews nonsense while both at lows lol...
Can't you just feel those old, rusted, no oil, 9v battery powered "wheels" spinning on how to run with this from now on...lol
Who even has the time to even attempt to begin addressing the upside.....smh....lol
They're also now able to sell, import, broker, export for medical as well as adult use worldwide with Canadian licensing...
But it already has, and surely isn't done yet. (Possibly hasn't even begun...)
When they put $10MM into Iowa medical (CBD only, 400 patients) I kind of wrote them off as a group with any degree of competence, wisdom, or insight....
Nice guys.....but $10MM into a CBD program with couple hundred patients when nearly half a dozen of the largest adult use markets in the U.S opening up? (Going to burn through another $10MM before any hopes of even coming close to breaking even...Maybe they just didn't know they could have spent $90k opening up a CBD only store with $5k kilo's of isolate you can buy all day long with a phone call in 50 states.. lol....
Smh......yeah......I've seen and heard all I need to and the best of luck :) LOL
Mexican production greatly misunderstood.....
Mexico has always been a shipping point for product from dozens of countries (Africa, South America, Asia, etc...due to political and legal (lacking).....and they pay pennies for bulk....
Mexican operations themselves have been acquiring U.S talent now for decades and most of their actual product is on the better side of global exports...The worse quality is simply things they procured 100,000lbs for $2-5 a lb and just brokering and shipping out, but of course becoming less and less for various reasons. (U.S market needing the quality....)
They've actually been doing more and more higher end for tourist locations for many years now, including pretty large indoor facilities. (And of course, the government down there doesn't see or know or say a thing....)
Very interesting market (bulk/black market) as much of the time it's approached as simply a commodity and no specific values assigned for the quality. (black, brown, brick, superior quality....all the same to them....(price/moneywise)...)
Should be (legal) a very interesting market in the future....
Now mind you, I was specifically addressing cannabis specific operators and issues (PR). I'm sure much more favorable for traditional/conventional AG but the funding and effort required for licensed cannabis, as well as the impact of natural events recently, for a market, as stated, smaller than even various U.S cities?....I think was an unwise move.....
I once had a discussion with a group (now public) regarding their activities and why they chose to do what they did...beinginferior medical markets at a time when immense adult use markets emerging enabling entry and operations at a fraction of the cost...ie: Why would you assign $30MM to enter a state with 500 patients when the largest adult use markets in the nation wide open enabling a much greater operation for as little as $5-8MM.
Their response? (maybe the #3 in organization)
"I don't know. I can't answer that".
Point being (PR, Cannabis).....aside from management desiring a nice vacation spot, why would run rush to spend 7 figured (now 8 due to disaster) when the very same could be executed in any number of top rec markets immediately...
Note: Many might make the argument of positioning for future rec in a favorable climate and vacation destination....which is valid....it is.
But the argument could also be made get up and running and producing with revenues in top adult use markets and use proceeds to enter the very same at a later date for a fraction of the cost...
TRTC specific:
This is another issue it seems as of late. We have seen recently acquisitions ranging from $26MM-$53MM for single operations, even dormant licenses while they continue (and I applaud) to acquire through application processes and fee's. My note is the current processes, by the above valuation(s) seem to indicate current applications/licenses pending (WeHo, NJ, NV) and their values if they acquire even 1 (each) to be immense...
Ive always preached the same.....ie: Why go out and buy something when one can pursue through app process at a fraction of the cost...and actually something we have been on more and more in house for quite a while....(Secure license and/or develop facility and flip it for 10-20+ times more.....)
We have something right now where total outlay was maybe $500k and most recent offer (unsolicited) was $15MM lol..(ownership declined smh......I would have flipped it in blink of an eye......we're just the "engineers" and ongoing management on that one unfortunately....
On the very same note(s), we see now many states that began as restricted licensing heading towards open licensing, which then success is dictated by operations as previous (quality in production, staff/pricing/location, etc for retail.....)
Another extremely lucrative area we've been addressing is "turnaround" engagements, which there is an endless supply nationwide more and more....(struggling operation, take it over and turn it around, etc...much easier for cultivation...(We've got now about 2 dozen things (genetics) which fall in the 30-35% range...but as previous, only half the battle, and many more aspects to "quality)..and certain markets the issue being "pay for play" lab results to mislead the consumers, etc.....ie: Pay the lab x more and they declare your blue dream (from knock off B lister stock (seed) 29% :) LOLOLOL.....seeing more and more of that in various markets smh....
To be clear.....I'm 100% pro patient......rec?, ehh.......I don't care...couldn't care less (aside from engagement and $) but quite a history of helping (serious, valid) patients, so.....I prefer most production related and patient related activities....the droopy pants 1/4 ounce in one dab sideways hat crew have no interest or sympathy from me ;) LOLOL
Global Cannabis and Canadian overview....
Firstly, the Canadians are years behind the U.S in production and product lines and availability, the world even more so...(23 years cannabis industry in the U.S, with virtually any and every product being developed and produced and on shelves.)
One will note one of the largest LP's recently announcing their "new" product. (Turns out, it's full melt dry sift lol)
Beverage companies approaching Canadians? Sorry, on U.S dispo shelves for years...
The Canadian contribution to cannabis being the term "Beasters". One will be reminded of a recent publicized Canadian loss of a 1MM sq. ft. crop. Many have stated those were photoshopped. Unfortunately, if one looks a little harder, they can easily find the original video that still was taken from lol.
"Talent pool" as referenced? Yes, and that is possible due to 23 years of large scale production across the nation...
Canada's "dominance" can be instantly seen and identified in their pursuit to acquire licensed production sites all over the globe, many of those being areas with superior climates, extremely low labor costs, and equally cooperative (more so in some ways) governments...
They've already been "beat".
Canada vs. U.S?
Climate, talent pool, product line exposure and experience, immensely more developed (and experienced) market.
Canada vs. rest of world?
As above, land cheaper, labor cheaper, superior climates, power cheaper, etc....
Quality:
As said many times, non industry do not seem to grasp it is not nearly as simply as "it's a weed, anyone can grow it". Further demonstrated by product quality in markets, as well as pointed out, above crop failures by some of the largest and most well funded (and professional? lol) operators on the planet.
As also stated many times, there are few any can name I am not intimately familiar with, and it's a part of my daily life to walk through $10-$30MM+ facilities and see some of the most sub standard conditions and product I have seen in my entire life.
I also have on my desk multiple licenses outside North America totaling probably well over 3,000 acres, and know much of the above firsthand. (Discussions with various parties for numerous arrangements and purchases/investment due to being able to produce larger volume, of superior quality, for cheaper. I don't even know how many cup victories staff and genetics hold.....30-40+? Lost track.....(Secret-superior skill sets and staff always my #1 priority....1 individual can "make or break" a $30MM facility....just 1.....and I have witnessed such first hand many times...
Puerto Rico:
"Big money" rushed there , for some reason, despite a market which certainly isn't impressive (6MM, population and tourism), and further met with natural disaster which probably tripled their budgets and timelines.(I know some operators who have PR interests)....Of course, those were "big money" who just wanted to rush and collect licenses. No industry knowledge or experience, no understanding of the very same or products.
I'm well aware sometimes I get quite "uppity" about these matters. The reason being I see the above every single day of my life, and it's tiring...(Non industry, no experience, knowledge, understanding, chasing that which they have not even the slightest clue as to what they are doing.)
But they're all "the biggest, the best, the most ____, the biggest ____, the best ______"
As addressed previously, they place their advertising and packaging first, and what actually is produced/production is the last on their list.....
I could not even begin this second to make a full list of every operator I have personal, first hand knowledge of that is "failing".
Some of the very same are the newest round of public companies...(let me think....1.....2....3....4....5....yeah, that list would get pretty long (public companies)
One's footprint does not dictate success. One's advertising does not dictate success.
The Canadians have "hype" at the moment.
That's it.
They cant produce the best quality. They can't produce the cheapest. They are a decade or more behind on U.S product development. Their market less than single U.S states, and global market(s) and distribution a struggle, proved by their rushing to acquire any and every licensed operation and side outside North America that can do all cheaper, better.
Lot of continued drama about TRTC and brands. (success, lack of, competition, etc)....
Ive said it before, will say it again, and now becoming an actual challenge issued to many:
You can take over market share of anything, anywhere, anytime with a blank container through quality, strategy, price points (value), etc...
The lack of quality on many levels would absolutely shock most....and further strengthens an alcohol model/analogy...(diverse offerings, pricing/value, quality, boutique, etc....)
I've seen firsthand the operations of the last 1/2 dozen-dozen public companies this year....
Not impressed.......and some utterly shameful...I'd laugh except it's not funny, and just sad...and I savor any and every opportunity to "spank em" lol.....(out produce, take market share, produce superior quality)
Money has not been at the top of my list for a long time ;) lol
I'll throw some in regarding Puerto Rico as well when I get a sec.....(operators, market as a whole, recovery and impact on operators, etc)
Canadian cultivation and cannabis......
Where would one even start smh....(as it seems starting at the very basics are necessary given conversation today... lol)
It would be quite the overview.......not sure if I have the time this second for such an expansive topic....but rest assured, I'll try and make some lol...
Thanks for that. Very busy day and they hadn't updated it yet when I looked this morning...
At this time we are aiming to announce the scores for all of the screening applicants, including the top eight, by December 7, 2018.
Nevada process stating December 5th as well.
New Jersey as well might fall in that window after November 1st cancellation (which I called long, long ago)....
Now that is something I wasn't aware of (Short interest)...but given movement, not surprised....
I had seen I believe those referenced, and indeed, quite the work. (Such is usually the product of engineers ;) lol
I know directly/indirectly many involved in various capacities in recent licensing in MI, and, at least all the ones I know of, are "smaller" operators (per se, not multi state, etc).
I think regarding MI/election bump, possibly, especially if Sessions gets knocked out. Entirely possible could bump many in the industry for various reasons, if only being results further contribute to the political, so. Dying of curiosity at response to Sessions loss.....(if any...maybe some, maybe none) We'll see in a week ;)
I don't know if I would say a "purely speculative" move(s), as seems to be something that is going to have quite a bit of activity long term for all (longs and shorts). All depends on one's strategy. I sometimes have a hard time identifying which I fall under (trader/investor). I'd be happy to park for 6-12 months and 100% target, but sometimes when a quick bump, I jump on it sooner and wait out another entry, sometimes as long as 6-9-12 months, so....this past year was one of those....most things popped NY's (new years) and then came to about exactly that (6-9 months to settle back down), so.......I think longer term they're (MedMen) going to be a monster, and for the time being a lot of opportunities for all up to every month or so give or take....(1-3 months, etc)....
I do pretty large positions, so sometimes need heavy downward to accumulate and the same to exit, so.....It certainly seems this will be a (if well played) goldmine far into the future if one has the discipline and patience.....
Investors and traders don't dedicate their life to posting on a board of something they don't have an interest in.
They spend it trading and investing ;)
And maybe, if and when a free moment here and there,offer something of substance and value to things they actively play.
I always find it fascinating who wakes up, and runs to jump online to post on a company board they don't like...(for years)...
In the real world, that's called "restraining order" and "psyche evaluation" lol.....
It's not "entertaining"......it's not "fun".....it's "shudder" "creepy" lol....and if remotely based on any (actual) trading history, just a confirmation of one's lack of skill set(s).
("I made a bad trade 5 years ago, and I'm going to dedicate my life to their board")
smh......lol....
Was always available. (10+ years)
The effect the "larger players" had was more to do with the last several years, and states requiring bonds in the low to mid 7 figure range ($2-$5MM bonds) for cultivation facilities/applications, which at the time they (states) decided to make such requirements, they were not aware those were nearly impossible to obtain. (If you wanted a $5MM bond, one basically had to put up $5MM cash or liquid assets...so,essentially, just a "deposit" and not a "bond" per se.
Readily available. The issue is meeting underwriting guidelines.
Many companies have been servicing industry for almost (over?) a decade. States available would depend on the provider. But virtually all states are able.
NorCal cultivators had the greatest issues in the past (fires) due to their sites not meeting underwriting guidelines. One will not obtain $1MM theft for example if their storage building is a wood shed with a padlock and no alarms and visual surveillance for example, etc, etc, etc.
Congratulations! You definitely sound like a modern day cannabis industry professional!!
And of course, those are some of the issues I have a problem with:
I wouldn't necessarily agree (no one see's the positives). I don't think anyone could deny they are positioning to be absolutely immense in the future, the questions being near or distant, and at what cost and their ability to execute, and how some issues that I personally find questionable will be received by the market in the future as they proceed....
I firmly believe this is going to hold a lot of opportunities for longs and shorts for years to come...I've already had several extremely nice/profitable moves, and looking forward to many more.....
(Note: Without adequate and firm history, I personally wouldn't short this unless it hit a level absolutely ridiculous as something else did recently (300), but as far as waiting out and accumulating the bottoms, absolutely. I'm sure this is due for some interesting bumps as time goes on ;)
Today an even more interesting and fascinating board and posts. (usually, seems just the same transparent nonsense)
Where would one start? "Business 101" possibly, except the problem to begin with, is this is "Cannabis Business 101". I think some do not have an understanding of either as well it seems..
Online CBD:
It seems many do not understand how simple and obscenely cheap this can be executed, as well as the mechanics of such, which would also address exposure and sales can be as simple as one agreement with a source that controls multiple locations. Does one believe they have to grow CBD in a facility (stupid) in order to accomplish this? lol....
Wholesale CBD isolate is available at record low pricing by the 1,000's of tons, which is convenient, as retail CBD products are fairly expensive. (per gram wholesale vs. retail mg's)
It is an extremely wise move by anyone who seeks to attempt such as the result can be a $50k or less start up reaching 8 figures in sale. The issue is distribution/exposure/penetration, which again, can be simple, or quite difficult. Depends on what distribution one can establish.
The above of course assumes they will be doing their own on site manufacturing (of the final product) and packaging. One also has the option of simply contracting that entire process out, and going with one of many large CBD manufactures who will provide all products and affix your labeling and deliver to you shelf ready cases of your specified products.
Hmmm......seems people aren't aware of those aspects. Didn't seems like it.
They're late on filings? So insignificant I personally won't even bother.
Then you have valuation issues. Seems people also aren't aware of the numerous LV cultivation sold in the past several months up to $30MM for facilities under 30k. (30,000 sq. ft. and under)
56k depped GH with staggered pulls ongoing? Just because $5MM was paid does not mean that's what it's worth with full production and distribution. It was worth more the second it got running full production.
LV dispensary licenses? 6 submitted in a stakeholder only process most likely with at least 2-3 declared within the next 30 days. Never see any discussion regarding the potential value of those either?
Cannabis Business 101. Welcome to it.
What a fascinating series of comments today.....
Entire nation of Canada similar to Massachusetts.....not quite, but interestingly (and amusingly), not that far off actually...
Agricultural families and cannabis........familiar, and well versed. Among some of the greatest cannabis industry failures I have seen.
Canada, compensation, valuations....yeah, just think about it, then they'd be able to pay x 10 for operations instead of simply going through an app process for $20k...
Indoor production vs. outdoor only displays a complete lack of understanding of the product. Indoor will always be produced and sold, and will be priced accordingly. Anyone not aware of the difference in quality as well as consumer base and preferences certainly not able to make any reasonable statements regarding such....
Daily share price........only of importance and mentioned 10x a day by day traders trying to make a mortgage payment. (or more likely rent lol)....
Furthermore, any who obsess over such no firm grasp of how this game works. The markets display daily anything, anywhere, anytime can rapidly change everything.
At a time when some of the most dishonest and deceptive companies ever seen in the industry, acquiring holdings that won't break even for a decade or more and 8 figure compensation, such a firm and dedicated effort here seems even more interesting (and transparent.....)
Don't like it, don't play it. Why would anyone who's not even be here.
Like it or not, any and all activity the last few months only supports further an immense increase in value at some point.
WeHo, NJ, Fremont all pending for app fee's of about $100k with a potential value of $60MM+. (Operations not nearly as significant as those 3 just sold for between $78MM and $159MM. (Those 2 numbers represent 2 different companies recent prices paid and acquisitions)
I think it's obvious at this point who is here, for what purpose, and possess a clue lol.
Valuation based on market activity as of late of other similar holdings (assuming pipeline cleared out successfully) which I don't agree with to begin with, but the market and the players have established, not I, and I could go on, in depth, about the same for weeks...
Said previously....if I had $600-$800MM for a shopping trip, I would return home with a much different shopping bag ;)
Well, there are several aspects regarding "marketing"...
First and foremost, those who address such matters are concerned with their compensation. The objective usually is not "what is the greatest impact on sales that can come from the least amount of money spent".
The bottom line is what did the efforts (and expense) do for, and reflect on actual sales.
Regarding online and social media, I think all are aware this has been severely lacking, and this is an area where there is no reason whatsoever that it wasn't addressed and executed immediately. (One of the simplest, cheapest things to do).
Then you have matters (related to the above) such as recently posted by someone, a video featuring IVXX brand. How much did this cost? And what was the impact on sales and how was that tracked?
The objective is not "we spent xxx and now people know the brand".
It's, we spent xxx and increased sales by xxxx.
Furthermore, if they paid a single dime for this, they need someone new addressing these arrangements. (I guarantee it could have been done many ways..... ;).....
All going back to previous issued discussed....(brands, blank container with quality)....If one spends $3MM and another doesn't, and the one that didn't can capture a greater and more loyal market share and consumer base, what does that tell you?
Such is the modern cannabis space......it's all about who is "bigger" (even if they're not).....all about who is "best" (even if they're not)........and all about whose packaging is "nicer" (when all that matters is the product contained inside)...The largest groups are all about "appearances"/"image"...(Most could not begin to believe the exchanges I have had with such.....)
We do branding and design....I'm not against it per se...but the focus should always be on the products and operation first...and for many, this actually falls last on the list, because, after all "its a weed, and anyone can grow it".....
Another thing I have seen is the larger, well funded groups holding their own consumers to be "idiot stoners who don't know the difference".....and their first reaction to any decline in sales is to revisit their branding :) lolol....ie: Product lacking, sales slipping, so let's simply redesign our packaging (which then holds the same inferior product, which wasn't addressed smh..........)
Several additional points:
I would have to disagree, and actually, yes, I know exactly how much it takes. With an in house team, such as MM would possess, 1% is a more than reasonable figure (dispensary) based on the PCann holdings, slightly more on cultivation (2%) due to design and engineering required.
Well, one of the things which I am very unhappy about is there are actually several companies now (public) making statements (public) about how many locations (cultivation and dispensary) they "are operating"......
Except they're not.
One company claims now 79 I believe when no more than I think 30 actually exist. Another 40 have yet to become operational, bound by 8 figure lease operations, and few ever dare to mention after paying ridiculous record sums, how much will getting those operational cost. (And then upon that occurring, how much more till the 40+ locations even break even? ;)....
Another company is similar (60?, something like that), and again if one visits their company site they see maybe a dozen locations actually open.
Both, while presenting their superior positions, are actually known for being little more than "b listers".
One has to remember as well, the majority of these (all) I have an intimate knowledge of ;) lol....
I've said it before:
You give me a budget of $25-$50MM per (operation, license), and I guarantee I would not return home with a shopping bag full of b listers and unused licenses ;) LOL
That's an "A Lister" shopping list....serious locations/operations, doing real numbers...
And again.....is that really what people want?
Yet another company purchased a Florida interest not too long ago for over $100MM I believe.....(as the courts now seek to sort out open/additional licensing opening up :) lol.....One of the companies above also made a $50MM+ Florida purchase as well. (And now the expense of moving forward as well....)
Everyone's always looking for a spin.....smh LOL...
As previous....one of my biggest complaints (TRTC and in life as well, professionally) is how can one seek to speak of "shareholder value" when they go on a shopping spree of things which could have been secured through simple app processes for 5 figures (fee's).....
The company (TRTC) has clearly been moving forward with this approach, and it's looking quite promising.....12 licenses pending right now in 3 jurisdictions (paper only) worth 60-90MM? (couple hundred k in app fee's more or less....)
I have to repeat......from where I sit (this actual game and industry), they're (TRTC) doing pretty well value wise......(exceptionally)
I do have several (real, actual) issues with them...I think they're marketing efforts are off ($ for $ returns on efforts), and I think it's clear at this point whoever is on the ground responsible for the build outs has to go...The speed of their build outs seems to be severely lacking (and that is spoken by someone actually aware and well versed of the 100 valid reasons for delays on projects)...
I think given the pipeline of pending licenses as well as (pending) operations, combined with valuations seen as of the last several months, if they can simply complete the current, it will be quite the portfolio established for as many clearly see, a very reasonable cost...
Something worthy of note for those non industry.....many of these companies we are discussing in passing are not providing any product worthy of any note. (Yet another aspect....quality.....AAA is not the norm...never has been, never will be, and some of the most well funded operators I have seen produce shameful product.....
This is the end game and challenge:
Can they provide superior product. (consistently)
Their marketing, as above, reminds me of what I see far too often.....focusing on "their brand" (marketing, graphics, packaging), but not the product...(Which has now become the norm with the largest and most well funded organizations...)
I had the same usual discussion with another group this past week:
You spend $3MM on your "brand", and give me blank white packaging and they'll come back and say "we want the no label stuff"......
It's the inside....not the outside....(Of course, the "new, big money" all come from industries of which the importance isn't necessarily a unique (consumable) product with countless different characteristics, effects, etc....
I have no interest in paying high prices for mediocre quality from an "apple store" (and I'm paying for the boxes and the interior and rent).
I care about the product and service.
(referring to average consumer......I don't really ever buy anything and haven't for years :) lol.....but as previous, do oversee quite significant dispensary operations...so very well versed on serving patients and consumers...
I do think such companies will hold great value in the future once they actually have their claimed operations up and running and producing (assuming quality, which isn't currently lol), but the very same could be said for this company (TRTC) whom paid/are paying a fraction of the cost for potentially much more desirable operations...
And I didn't even touch on what I actually know about some of those above ;) LOL (and never will ;)......
As we are now less than 2 weeks away from yet another leap forward for the industry nationwide and politically as well...
Being what and who I am, I have a serious problem with cannabis companies making false statements such as the above companies, and casting a shadow over the industry and market just as it's getting started...
Nothing new........12 licenses in limbo as well as a handful of operations this Q, so...if they can come out on top of a fraction of the app's and execute the locations in play and bring down some numbers, should be impressive moving forward.....
I genuinely find the last several comments truly fascinating on many levels....
The last two sets of acquisitions (2 companies, one 685MM?, one $835MM?) paid prices that literally may take a decade to break even (even in rec scenarios)...one without real estate and 8 figures in rent payments for non operational facilities...
Is that what people want? :) LOL
Yet compared with an organization paying $20-80k in licensing for similar holdings. (Note: One of the organizations mentioned above, $26MM was paid for 13 locations not operational (license).
I'm playing the one heavily.....and think (movement) will be an endless stream of profitable trades in the future, but don't think much of company, and consider them, for the most part, the most dishonest operators in the industry, and worry about bringing such deception to the cannabis investment world. (truly).
So, the comparison is a company collecting permits and locations from start up, (for the least $), to those paying absolutely ridiculous amounts for truly B list operations...(anyone is free to look up the company's holdings, product and patient reviews...)
At a time when one is building, and others are paying up to x10 more than they should.......actually, it seems to be more just clarifying a greater future value. An unused NV cultivation license at a time around $30MM being paid in 2 separate matters the last several months for 30k and less facilities. Another 50% of a 30k acquired for 3.5MM. Many licenses/applications in limbo. (An NJ should go for an easy $20-$30MM alone, and my belief a WeHo worth something similar) Fremont should fall into a nice range should it perform which location alone should dictate.....
I think any debate and discussion about any (company) falls into a "this or that"....
I enjoy profits....(truly lol) but I wouldn't be comparing one (deceptive) company overpaying more than has even been seen or is reasonable to one that's not....(which was one of my TRTC issues....why pay $30MM for something you can do for $50k in app fee's and $2MM-$5MM in build out...
If anything, I think what has just been established is if they can actually execute everything in the pipeline, they're pushing $700MM territory. (which 2 other cases have just established)....(Theme of my week with several considering sales prior to their launches...."Let's get it up and running and worth 10 times more"....)
Nah.......recent activity only dictates a much greater value than many might have thought previously...
Old news. 2 Canadian companies received DEA authorization and approval to ship to researchers (San Diego was one destination) in U.S in the past month or 2 (more or less), the market reaction to one being a $300 share price (my biggest short of the past year or two in anything lol, ($2MM+) , which was interesting given the amount delivered was most likely not more than several ounces of high CBD, already readily obtainable in the U.S......
1st case
2nd case
CBD-Charlotte's Web-Stanley Brothers....
As always, a lack of understanding of the industry, it's operations, it's history, it's players...
Firstly, the Stanley Brothers utilized mainstream media for greater exposure on CBD 10+ years after dozens of others were already engaged in such.
And it worked, extremely well.....
Unfortunately, since then, the CBD industry has exploded and is quickly becoming a saturated market. (I could literally pick up phone/open email and have access to dozens of tons worldwide, within an hour's time.)
That is only going to get worse/more competitive by the week moving forward.
Rarely do people seek "Charlotte's Web" anymore, as opposed to simply "CBD products", as CW was marketing that utilized a lack of information and understanding by the general population which now has become "general knowledge" among the population, which continues to grow day by day, week by week.
Well, if we're going to go that route.......
Imagine it's fall 2018...and well funded publicly traded companies are paying $26-$53MM per licensed location, whether actually open and operational, or merely the license(s) themselves, for up to 26 at a time and TRTC has at this single moment 12 different licenses in 3 states (CA, NV, NJ) pending, as well as 4 different locations currently pending (NV cultivation, Manufacturing, Carnegie, Dyer), plus many others, while the very same licenses bought own no real estate, and carry up to $6MM annual lease payments for cultivation facilities not operational, while yet more companies are purchasing Nevada cultivation facilities under 30k sq. ft. for up to $30MM, which this company paid $3.5MM for 50% as we're 2 weeks away from elections which will once again change the scope of the industry and politics of the same in the US, while the same company currently has 21 separate licenses in limbo.
Imagine a world where actual costs of property, such as commercial property taxes aren't taken into consideration when addressing lease payments.....
Imagine how values are determined and assessed following multiple sales in the industry, and how they then become applicable to other holdings and operations nationwide.....
Imagine paying $26MM (each) for a collection of under performing/non operational holdings with leases totaling more than $10MM annually, including dispensaries in leased storefronts furnished with 4 desks. ($26MM, leased storefront, 4 desks in the rented space).
Imagine purchasing a building and paying $50k in application fee's for cultivation, or submitting 4 applications for $20k each, while the market fetches $53MM asking prices for the same......
Imagine a world where people only spoke of matters they had knowledge of lol....
MSNBC segment is actually up next (12:41 PST)......(have it on in background)
Ehhh, 2-3 minutes, nothing special....
WeHo and New Jersey updates for anyone who has missed them.
Weho update per October 15th is they are now projecting the end November. Certainly no surprise that puts it at 6 weeks, after elections as well.
New Jersey (as I stated many times they would) have stated they will be unable to meet the November 1st deadline.
They have also stated it's possible they will be opening yet another round following the winners from this round being announced.
The DOH proposed regulations in June that, among other things, would allow the state to issue separate licenses for growing, processing and retailing. If those rules are adopted, the state could start accepting applications for the separate licenses shortly after applications for the six new providers. It's unclear how the delay announced Friday might impact these plans.
They are the most dishonest and misleading people in the entire industry right now, and I'm starting to get a little annoyed at them......(bad for industry)....
Speaking of "operating" 79 locations when I can name this second 43 of those that are not...(paper only)....(little legwork, could probably add another 10 easily that aren't either....)
People want to talk "scam's"?.....there you go. #1 in nation/world right now. Recent deal made ($600 whatever) such nonsense beyond comprehension......up to 10 times what they're worth (specific single locations) and B listers at best smh.....)
Don't even get me started smh......
Looks like from update today WeHo starting to wrap it up.
:) LOL smh.......
Maybe the wrong board, but thanks for post. I forgot about the 100k trigger. (25 dispo's per license, 100k patients trigger for 30 dispo's per license, next trigger 35, etc)
Next WeHo (city)update will/should be tomorrow (1st and 15th), as of last update (Oct 1st) they were still predicting by end of October. NJ to best of my knowledge hasn't changed Nov 1st projections, (I believe they will) and NV almost a month in more or less and think that should be done in next month.
I'd think everything (WeHo 4, NJ 4, NV 3-4?) 6 weeks max.
Yes,(cultivation, Vegas) sold last week, a 25k facility for $27MM and was another one a while back (couple months ago?), a 27k and a little on the side for I think about the same ($27-30MM?)
Relevant of course because I remember all the drama over them paying $3.5MM (?) for 50% of a 30k, which people see more and more was/is indeed quite the investment, and quite the opportunity to be able to do so.
I'd agree with many points, but could also see alternatives to the same as well....ie: Execution(s), operations, lead to greater valuation/recognition, etc...
Lot of stuff in the immediate pipeline next, let's say 3-5 weeks. (3-5 weeks). Given such, is now really the time? (To spend so heavily on such actions?)
Lot of money and effort at this specific time with specific events coming and pipeline...
Whatever it's value/worth today is not the value of/when clearing out pipeline (including launching beverage line, which I would have dedicated a specific facility as opposed to part of another, etc, given interest by such companies in the industry....
I'm all for "thinking out of the box"...but again, is this the time, place, and proper direction and tool per se.
(hate that phrase, and my response is always "The first mistake is thinking there ever was/is a box to begin with" ;)...The "box" being an illusion children are taught there is by people who believe there is one, by people working 9-5 jobs ;)...(not the creative, and entrepreneurs, etc...
We'll see.....could be just the right approach and time...(given attention, elections, pipeline)
We are also at a time where the momentum is resuming, (industry investment and the market) as well as building going into elections, specifically Pete Sessions seat, as well as numerous more states in a matter of weeks.
The Sessions loss may not directly carry the impact people believe in the end, but should have quite the effect on the market I think. (We'll see shortly exactly how much).
At this point, the changes (industry and market) are week to week basically. (Referencing your statement of next Q, and my position of give them several/many) A lot of things can happen (election and industry) which can immediately impact market.
Any action affecting 280e would/will have an immense impact on any cannabis business and is in the end the true goal. Most assume the approach is to position medical for adult use, when in reality the bigger picture is position in either for 280e exemption, which is sure to come, and now sooner than later.
Knowing far more than I would ever speak out loud about PCann, that one concerned me quite a bit as far as the values. ($26MM per location, 1/2 of them not "live", and more a "distressed" company but PR'd as A list.
Give me a budget of 26MM a location, and my nationwide shopping spree would have brought back a much different list lol...(and they would all have been currently operational "A listers" with numbers to match.
We'll see. I'd like to see several Q's as well as further development and political events, but this may very well outrageously perform before that time comes, so....
I'm longer term, (as a whole, not single position(s), and can see this providing quite a few plays over the next several/many years.
I can see the upside, but also the opposite.
We're weeks away from, combined, an immense amount of news......From licensing decisions (WeHo, NV, NJ), through elections (Sessions seat), through an additional handful of states joining the industry....and just question is this second, and that manner, the best utilization of what is probably going to carry a 7 figure price tag. (Interested in seeing the material and commercials though).
The momentum is already there. Are actions going to feed it, or simply get lost and be "clutter".
I'd have used the money for any number of actual things "in hand" and in limbo. (NV decisions which might include Fremont could come in a matter of weeks for example. Next WeHo (City/licensing) update is tomorrow btw.....
Whats done is done, so let's see. Not impossible might work out well. Also not impossible might be above.
I'm curious why you believe an organization that controls an 83k cultivation footprint (all currently operational) would need to photoshop a single branch.