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Just read the headline. Up to $65MM if my glancing is correct. Looks like I'll have to monitor this board again.
"There goes the neighborhood"
-DP
Congrats shareholders!
Been awhile since I posted, but have been checking in on this group from time to time. I'm still hanging in there from the QREDF days, and have enjoyed the latest developments. Still much work to do, and many risks remain - but this group deserves a 20%+ rip into a weekend.
Cheers,
DP
If we received a buyout today for $4 per share you would vote *NO*?!
Completely agree. This is not a berkshire play.
Uncle Warren and Uncle Charlie aren't known for paying $2,300 today for the right to pay $1,000 tomorrow and then work really really hard and maybe get $233 per year 5 years from now.
Have a great weekend all.
-DP
... and then we trade 577k within an *hour* on the OTC this morning. Interest remains high, it would seem.
-DP
The volume of trading since the Fox PR hit has been far higher than I would have imagined. My initial thought was we would see a few days of action and then a return to "normal" - wrong.
Even now - 577k traded today *just on the otc* - whoa.
-DP
Hello all, it is I who predicted a head fake last week. I am here to rightfully accept all forms of public shame!
Congrats to my fellow longs, a great day. Fantastic exposure.
-DP
Seems like the classic nb.to head fake. Happens every time with this name. Be ready for $0.5 per share from here. Hope I am wrong.
Macro events are positive for miners.
Fiscal and monetary environment positive for businesses.
Nobody wants to put up the cash to build this thing. Bottom line. Mark can prove me wrong at any time. He's been talking a good game for years now.
Good luck to all.
DP
Re: insider exercise options
If we want to look at these as a signal, we need to evaluate how much the latest sales reduced a person's total actionable position (total of their common stock holdings plus exercisable options).
For instance, if this latest sale reduced Shah's total actionable position by a large amount, I would take that as a warning sign.
-DP
run to C$0.86 ?
Quite the rally! I think we have a date with C$0.92 - then with some luck we can test that C$0.99 level again.
GLTA.
-DP
Hey LM, if Niocorp is to announce new info at one of the conferences, I believe they would need to release that info *publicly* prior to the actual conference.
However, I'm not in the business of securities law. Any thoughts appreciated.
-DP
PM,
Volume is concerning to me. My guess is if we don't get a close above that C$0.89 level we have a date with ~C$0.78.
Hoping we just continue right on through to hit upper of ~C$1.03 - but with low volume and no news, that will be a stretch IMO.
-DP
My guess is we run to C$0.90 and then we'll see.
Have a good weekend.
-DP
Nobody wants to hear my thoughts right now, hah.
I'll just keep them to myself.
-DP
Thanks PM and Grunt. I need to pay more attn to the TSX. my default is USD chart.
Quite the day. I'm the first to say i did *not* see that coming so soon after a massive down day. wow.
have a good weekend all.
-DP
hey GE,
It's all guesswork for me, and I tend to trust PM on the pure technical view.
If we were to dip down below ~0.57 usd that would feel oversold to me personally.
Keep in mind, that i'm not trading in and out of the name, so i can just throw short term targets out there with no consequence :)
-DP
Thanks PM. but I was hoping *you* were right.
-DP
Thanks PM.
I was looking at the 20,2 Bollinger Bands, and the price was riding above the top band - extremely bullish, to the point of being parabolic.
Once that crossed back below the top band, I began to get all the thoughts of plummeting price action from years past. Seems we do have more support these days.
Perhaps I should see a therapist? hah!
Have a good week.
-DP
Thanks g23. Good view.
Thanks PM.
Good to hear your thoughts. My view is speculation based on previous head fakes. Tough for me to shake that bias.
-DP
Feels toppy. Hope i'm wrong.
-DP
High volume, Parabolic move.
...
No news.
?
Be careful out there!
-DP
Congrats on following *your* plan. Best of luck!
Oh i agree it isn't going to happen. But it is my favorite of the "not going to happen" scenarios, hah
-DP
Of all the "best case" and "moon-shot" scenarios - this is my favorite.
Tesla buying the whole thing in order to have all the scandium they would need at cost. Would allow them to push the limit R&D wise.
Also, would be bad for us NB shareholders IMO, but they could do an all stock deal right now for very good terms.
Pie in the sky, for sure.
-DP
MS "quietly selling his shares" might be the dumbest of the many dumb things you have posted to this board.
He's got, what, ~$10MM tied up in this thing? What's he going to do, "quietly" sell the *entire* average trading volume for 200 days in a row?
How about you "quietly" take a few days off.
-DP
~5%
Not adding or trimming the position. Could be a zero, could be a 20 bag.
Time will tell.
-DP
That's how this management team speaks. I am not taking anything from it, positive or negative.
-DP
Well put. Rational view of where we are at. I am in agreement.
The market is still placing a value here that is ~5% of the company stated NPV.
That tells me something about the massive risks still involved here - *even after* all of the de-risking that has been done to date.
-DP
This line of thinking is frustrating to me.
Would we ever get to a position where Niocorp (where MS is CEO) would go into default with MS? Then Niocorp (where MS is CEO and owns, what, 10% of shares outstanding) has to sell assets at firesale prices to satisfy loan requirements.
What are we talking about here.
bad example, should MS be selling his house at a loss today in order to make sure to not go delinquent on an auto payment? same thought process.
What am I missing here.
DP
Kmack,
I've used this page as a starting point for coming up with a few versions of intrinsic value for Niocorp.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/spreadsh.htm
More art than science at this stage, since we aren't dealing with operating results.
It might help you to come up with your own fair value.
On the news - Very happy that the permit is final. Kudos to the team for navigating the bureaucracy.
-DP
All due respect to the Tecumseh Chieftain, but I doubt their publishing schedule will influence any decisions being made on this :)
Thanks for this!
I think some folks are reading too much into the red shovel.
How much time and many lawyers really need to review a non-binding agreement?
To me this just seems like riding the news cycle.
From a steel company perspective, I get it - *IF* Niocorp can get this thing up and running, *then* I will buy, sure why not. But hey don't release our name.
Non-Binding. Non-Material, IMO.
-DP
The overall market has the worst day since the financial crisis, and NB finishes green.
Wow.
That is some of the strongest price action I can recall in this name.
While we all understand you are not long this name, what is your argument against management team at this stage?
Whatever answer you give, the market has valued this name at roughly 50% higher cap (with sustained volume) vs a year ago. Clearly a disconnect between participants and your valuation, no?
-DP
Agree. Smith is making a boat load for running a non revenue producing asset. If the team gets the job done it will be well worth it, however.
Teach me more about economics.