GONZO
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It's a non-event. Eventually, the shorts will have no options. Their time is almost out and they probably are not aware of what is coming since they play BIOs in bulk and play the odds.
This is one time where the odds will smoke them.
Geez, when you digest things in context and try to grasp the big picture, if DOC decides to go at it alone (i.e. no BO), this thing is going to be a friggin' 800 lb gorilla.
My heart hopes for the long-term, but my gut says we get taken out much, much earlier.
Agreed. Well said.
If we can see the right set of events transpire and have the quick move to $20+, it should be a fast 3-4 month march to somewhere around a 2B market cap, which would be about $50/share.
From there, I think the BO scenario would rapidly follow sometime in 2018, shortly after EU approval.
$130-$150
Their desperation is too late. Soon, they will be in full panick mode and this board will be filled with posts of FUD.
BMY, a very nice MC at ~91B
Maybe they end up being the company that buys out Advaxis
I sincerely hope you are correct.
It could be Advaxis' intention, but I believe the bigger players will see the potential and make them an offer they can't refuse. This is why I believe it will happen much sooner than we realize and catch most by surprise.
Thoughts of early buyout comes with mixed emotions. Yes, it would/will be great to be part of, but the potential could bring so much more valuation. I just don't think the BP's will allow it.
So, what could be the buyout price? Hopefully it's above 5B and I used to believe closer to 10B, but it if a BP was smart they would jump in as soon as there is validation within the context of EU. If the valuation isn't in the 30's or higher prior to that event, then we might be looking at a price under 5B. So the range could be anywhere from 3B to 15B - who knows? It all depends on the data and the players and the stakes involved.
Regardless, I will be very, very surprised if Advaxis is allowed to go at it alone. No wonder Dan is buying shares hand-over-fist every month with his own money. He's trying to get all that he can because he probably realizes that it's more likely Advaxis gets purchased sooner rather than later.
He knows what he has and probably see's what's coming...
Writing continues to be added to the wall
Personally, I believe it is becoming more and more obvious on where Advaxis is heading. In short, I don't see the company existing in it's current form beyond 2018. There are just too many events concurrently building. Once there is a very tangible transition from a "P3 state", validating the platform, Advaxis will be consumed. Period. End of story. No BP is going to let this tech go.
I fully expect a buyout sometime in the 2nd half of 2018, assuming the right set of events transpire wrt to EU. And when things do happen, they will happen quickly and without warning.
Relatively speaking, the time is very, very short.
ah, next week....
next week.
It is June you know...
Tomorrow is the start of June baby, so...
GET READY!
If there is no need to sell, there is no need to concern with paper gains and losses.
Time is running out to enjoy these levels...
No material event announced - "yet"
No worries.
Patience folks. The time is drawing near...
Honestly, no material event, so we should not be surprised by the volatility. I think what is different currently is that the volume bump from yesterday was a unique indicator that broke the pattern of the last several weeks (you have to look back to Mar 7 to find a daily total volume at/above 1.5 million).
So, the question is what was the driver of the volume yesterday? Given the pattern before that, appears that something behind the scenes has {changed}. I don't think we're done yet either.
I suspect that if a material event is going to be released in the June time frame, we'll be trading in the teens soon enough (prior to that event). From there, it depends on the news, but as I've asserted previously, if it's a billion+ deal with a BP, etc. related to EU, you can forget about anything under $30.
"fo-mo" doubles - I like how you think
9.16
->18.32
->36.64
->73.28
->146.56
me likey...
Volume is ~3X daily average. The volume spike is a big data point that indicates there is something "more" going on behind the scenes.
All I know is that if the news is a Billion+ BP deal/partnership related to EU, you can forget about anything under $30
Really refreshing to see a shift occurring. However, until that decimal moves over to the right, we're still far far undervalued.
But....
Baby steps are necessary.
I don't think before the investor conference, since there is no way to manufacture a "date" on closing a deal. If the deal is "inked", then it's a material event and we would need to hear about it.
If it comes before the investor conference, then it would be a coincidence.
I hope I am wrong and it gets announced on June 10th...
$20? $30? On EU/partnership?
Gonna be much higher than that folks...
"paper" ROI, where a loss or a gain mean the same thing - nothing.
Just wondering how many think EU deal will come before 7/1? Or after?
We have enough information that EU approval is likely to happen. What we don't know is what that means in terms of partnership (pre/post) and pps.
Fully expect to be surprised - in a very, very good way.
The time to "call it like it is", as you've asserted, is coming to an end shortly. No pun intended for those who are "short".
For those that are paying [very, very] close attention, the tea leaves are telling a story...
GLTAL
<PPS>
<PROJECTION>
<add name="ShortTrouble" value = "TRUE"
</PROJECTION>
</PPS>
More and more, my feeling is that we'll never see the true potential of Advaxis as it's own entity. The more I think about it, the more I believe the next set of catalysts will be as follows:
1. EU partnership and/or approval
a. on partnership, price will climb to over 1B MC
b. on approval, price will double/triple from there
2. If #1 happens, Amgen will move aggressively to buy-out Advaxis. Hoping DOC and co. don't settle for anything under 8 billion.
This could all completely transpire sometime in 2018. The catalyst is approval in Europe and we'll get to see how it plays out from there. I just don't think Amgen will want to miss out on the potential in the 10's of billions if they buy Advaxis for under 10 billion.
All speculation of course, but it could be a real possibility if see approval, etc. Time will tell.
Not happening. Post compelling data {news}, the valuation will increase substantially - i.e. ADXS won't be trading below $30 anymore.
From there, a buyout would be imminent, but I suspect Dan and co. have a price in mind that will be very, very appealing to all.
My main point: Once compelling data is finalized, a buyout becomes almost inevitable.
"Surprises"
Don't be surprised when the unexpected happens. I'm starting to believe more and more that as soon as the right data comes out and validates what some of the BPs {maybe} looking for, it's good-bye Advaxis with a buy-out.
I do believe that it will happen a lot sooner that we realize and that it will come as a big surprise. As for timing and price - I have my thoughts but won't share.
The only trigger I'm looking for to validate my theory is finalization of compelling data. When that lands, hold your shares as tightly as possible.
Really? 700k shares?
Whether it goes up or down, until we see a day where the float is traded (or at least 10s of millions of shares), it's blah.
Need a material event; and we all know that.
Waiting patiently.
Fair enough. But do you think they are happy with the SP? How many of DOCs shares are underwater as well? Do you think they would even be happy if the SP was $30?
I doubt they consider anything less than a 5 Billion dollar market cap as "meeting expectations", and even then, that's the bottom of the barrel.
They know what they have - the real deal. And I wouldn't be surprised if they probably think in terms of 100's of millions for personal fortunes if all plays out the way it could.
So, they are probably even more disappointed then shareholders like you and I because they "know".
I seriously do not understand all of the negative, "sky is falling" discussion, given the events that have transpired.
Have the trial results to date been positive? Yes.
Does the science appear to work? Yes.
Does ADXS have big parties as part of their portfolios? Yes.
Do CEO's get stock as part of their salaries? Yes.
Seriously, what's the problem? If folks truly believe that DOC is corrupt and trying to just do share grabs, and does not care about shareholders at all, then why in the world are they invested? I certainly wouldn't be with those kinds of doubts.
So, it leaves me with two conclusions:
1. They are really blind.
2. They are playing games for a different reason.
I'm starting to think it's #2.
P.S. FBG, you're on iggy, so don't bother replying with more of your babble about how evil DOC is. Just saving you the effort.
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And, concerning the RSU's verses options, it's an ABSOLUTE tell that about getting grants over options. A big difference between RSUs and options -> You own the shares upon vesting with RSUs, while with options you own the shares upon exercise. Translation: RSU - stake in the company. So, when you're looking at selling a company, RSUs make much more sense.
And nowadays, more and more companies are compensating with RSUs anyways, so this is not out of the norm.
And I'm being ultra-conservative with 1 billion right now. The current 350 million MC is worse than robbery, it's comical.
Look, for what we know today, the science works; we're talking about the potential for a "cancer cure" across multiple constructs. "Plaaaaaaaaaalease don't come with me for anything less than 10 billion" - I hope that's what DOC is thinking anyways (if he's thinking of selling early on).
And hopefully he is really thinking, "Not for sale. Thank you very much."
Right now?....
"Dead-Bottom" Fair Valuation: ~1.2B or ~$30 per share
Fair Valuation: ~1.6B-~2.2B or ~$40-$55 per share
Valuation+ (on the high side): closer to ~2.5B or ~$75 per share
No way this thing should be below a billion in market cap.
No way.
That will change soon enough.
Noticing that the PR machine has been cranked up a bit recently. Wondering if we're seeing early indicators for a wave of continuing and more impacting news releases/PRs?
It's going to happen suddenly and most will be very surprised. I firmly believe the company, Advaxis, as we know it will not exist beyond the year 2018. The data and science is simply to compelling for BP not to take notice.
DOC, please, please don't settle for anything under 8B, which would be rock bottom.
Would love to see 10B+.
The start of each day is one day closer...
Bottom line for me is...
Data continues to show the science works. And as that data matures as reflected across multiple constructs, BP will (eventually) not allow Advaxis to reach true potential - just too much valuation at stake.
Buyout to happen sooner rather than later. Just a little more bake time for the data and trials required.
"European partnership or filing/approval"
Filing - 8-10% bump
Partnership - depending on terms, could put the market cap over 1B
Approval - 1-2B MC, if partnership beforehand then north of 2B MC
"...blind people describing an elephant..."
Yes, the mice are looking at all things like "current pps", "DOC RSUs, etc. but fail to see the monster they are riding that is simply asleep.
2018, I believe ADXS will get a check for 8-10 billion because there is no way BP is going to let this little company come in, change the game, and walk away with the cake.
What you don't expect, right? That's the trigger.
Caveat: This assumes some material events transpire, such EMA, etc.
"ADXS is big secret... not sure if it is intentional..... "
Yes, the epiphany.
And the very real reason why that Advaxis ticker will be (early on) driven by irrational exuberance with the opening of the curtains.
Exponential, hyperbolic, insane.
Yah, it's coming.
Yes, I am sure. If a more mainstream construct came out with the results Advaxis has landed in phase 2 (throw in that 8/8, 100% batting average on throat), they would be fast-tracked AND their corresponding valuation would be exponential.
From your comment, I agree with this:
"...We both seem way outside the mass groupthink..."
No matter, eventually, the reality of the results will settle.
And when that happens - KABOOM.
Yah, I am most definitely sure.
I actually think the root cause for many folks misunderstanding of timing has to do with the way the market views immunotherapy as a whole. In other words, it's not "mainstream" which means platforms have to demonstrate conclusive evidence and likely jump through all the "phase hoops" through to FDA approval BEFORE entities start to bite.
From the outside, without really understanding the tech, anybody would have a perception that this is "This is too good to be true. Prove it."
The thing will Advaxis that is a potentially beautiful scenario for investors is that once the reality (really) sets in - there's going to be a "holy shite" moment or moments. And from there, irrational exuberance will take over. When Advaxis gets to that point, don't be surprised to see exponential gains in valuation - i.e. the kind folks saw in the .com days. That's why I believe market cap in the 10's of billions is possible if DOC and co. don't sell out early.
And of course, all of my prognosis completely assumes that the platform is really delivering a game-changing, near-cure across multiple types of constructs. Case and point, going 8/8 on that recent throat cancer group (http://www.fios1news.com/longisland/immunotherapy-tesed-at-mt-sinai-hospital-april-14-2017#.WPuV34jyuUn) seems almost unbelievable.
So, yes, we still need to be patient, but we are getting close - very close to seeing material change. And, I must iterate that although I believe the potential is there for 10's Bs in MC, DOC and co will likely sell earlier. Hopefully it will be high single-digit Bs or low teen Bs. Anything under 10 billion is robbery IMO.
Thanks. Not buying the "sale".
Nice supporting follow-up with your other alias:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=130667921
The moderators will eventually "get it"