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65%. As Trump would say "wrong". Try 100% and it's not going to take 2 years.
Daryl Issa says Mnuchin is on to something regarding GSE's. They need to be privatized and made safe.
"We need to stop using them as a piggy bank"
Daryl Issa just commented on Fox Business that GSE's need to be privatized and "we need to stop using them as a piggy bank"
Your valuation is completely ridiculous and you are doing a huge disservice to novice investors!
The warrants will be exercised. If you think guys like Trump and Mnuchin are going to leave a pile of money on the table, you're crazy. They are going to abide by the original agreement. Most likely the NWS over payment beyond the 10% dividend will be applied to gov prfd's, which will yield the best "realistic!!!" pps. The gov wins and so do the shareholders.
PE's of 40, no warrants, accounting fraud, etc, etc, is all total BS at this point.
FNMA: Wall Street comments from Bloomberg
Focus of this board should be looking at recap scenarios instead of cheer leading and posting meaningless statements.
Others were more reserved. Here is a sampling of reactions:
FBR (Edward Mills)
Mnuchin’s Wall Street, banking background sends “strong signal” he’ll pursue “much less aggressive” regulatory, policy agendas, though little is known of specific policy positions
Likely “net positive” for financials as shows Trump’s willingness to pick individuals from industry who may change current financial policy; may foreshadow painting DoddFrank as drag on the economy, economic growth
Has “significant powers” related to FNMA, FMCC conservatorship; tenure as head of mortgage bond trading at GS, role at OneWest demonstrate “significant background” in mortgage industry
COWEN (Jaret Seiberg)
Positive for regional banks; cautious about influence on biggest banks, GSEs, as Trump adviser Steve Bannon (mega- bank critic, self-described “economic nationalist") may play bigger role on bank policy from White House
Nomination isn’t GS ‘‘revival"; cites Mnuchin’s ‘‘second career’’ distancing him from GS, including creating OneWest from IndyMac’s remains, selling it to CIT, which suggests he understands regional banks’ challenges; GS ‘‘lineage” might force him to be tough on mega banks
Notes Trump on campaign trail “ripped” Wall Street, vowed not to let Wall Street control the country, yet picked former GS partner as Treasury secretary, met Nov. 29 with top GS official, is expected to name another GS alumnus/SkyBridge’s Anthony Scaramucci as top Treasury deputy
Says Scaramucci “best known as the former Obama supporter” who once asked president when he’d stop bashing Wall Street
Cowen still worried about push to leverage capital from risk-based capital (supported by conservatives); watching for Trump nomination of Fed vice chairman for supervision; may give job to conservative to build goodwill with party; doesn’t see “quick deal” for FNMA, FMCC
KBW (Brian Gardner)
“Unorthodox” pick creates uncertainty about future policy as Mnuchin is “blank slate,” with broad experience in finance, who seems to have said or written little on financial regulation, tax policy
Too early to know whether selection will be positive or negative for financial services
Notes any Dodd-Frank changes will have to pass Senate, possible Senate Democrats filibuster; Mnuchin political skill in achieving compromise “remains to be seen”
HEIGHT SECURITIES (Edwin Groshans)
Mnuchin’s comments positive for GSE pfd, common shareholders
At the same time, est. FNMA would need to raise at least $190b of capital, FMCC would need $119b in order to meet minimum risk-based capital requirements -- which means no capital would flow to shareholders for a decade or longer
April 20, If Fannie, Freddie Holders Win, Need ‘a Lot’ of Capital: Height
BEACON ADVISORS
Trump expected to direct Mnuchin early in his term to designate China as currency manipulator; Mnuchin will be “heavily involved” in shaping tax reform package congressional Republicans will shepherd through legislative process next year
Reported choice of Scaramucci as deputy means neither of Treasury’s top 2 people will have had prior government experience
COMPASS POINT (Isaac Boltansky)
Mnuchin may be “comparatively moderate voice” on financial regulations vs other potential candidates like Rep. Jeb Hensarling or John Allison, who may have advocated for “far more draconian” Dodd-Frank rollback
Sees populist anti-big bank rhetoric reemerging as Mnuchin will join fellow Goldman alum, at least 2 billionaires in Trump’s inner circle; Trump may face pressure to renew populist “bona fides”
Source: Bloomberg
I have similar feeling regarding Friday ruling, but who knows.
Just for fun, what's your bet on remand, reverse or affirm? Minority view, but I think we get a reverse fwiw.
Please don't clog this board with truly idiotic questions about HRC!
Another day......no decision
Source?
Also, this scenario doesn't mean common are worthless
"breakout could happen any time soon IMO"
Thanks Captain Obvious!
Charting pennant's, hook reversal or any other nonsense is meaningless on this stock! Spare everybody the chart school 101. Perry is all that matters right now along with the Trump admin. decisions.
How does this "expert" talk about GSE's without ever bringing up the NWS, shareholder lawsuits, documents being hidden using presidential priv. and then talk about the failed model. Yeah the failed model that's paying billions to Treasury. What a total jackass!
Sorry. Replied to wrong post
No, but it should be higher than $20
Ackman had a pps estimate of $20 with gov exercising the warrants for almost 80% of the company. This dilution would be no where near that so you would see a higher pps. Good for everyone.
The utility model would keep fee's low, minimize risk and would maintain the AHTF. I would have no problem being long term shareholder under utility model.
Whatever the dilution would be wouldn't matter without the warrants being exercised. The PPS would be terrific. I don't think anyone would be suing!
Tim Howard is absolutely the most expert source available today. Utility model would make the most sense and it would be a positive.
Think about though if prf'd are converted to common assuming agreed price, then holder can simply sell their common if they choose. The utility model is the most likely outcome per Tim Howard. Ackman recently referenced as well.
As far as issuing new jr prf'd, that doesn't harm anyone. So if you think suits go away under a,b,c and d, then they should go away here as well. Also, fwiw everyone wins under this scenario. Very Trumpesque.
Ok let's forget about initial action in 2008.
Suppose though that we have positive court ruling and Trump admin wants to fix FnF and move on. Sweep ends, gov agrees to a settlement amount for the suits regarding prf'd and a conversion to common based on that with understanding that FnF will now be run as a utility model. They concede warrants and agree that the over payment from NWS vs original 10% dividend will be applied towards recap. Issue new jr prf'd to fill the gap.
Doesn't every lawsuit wether common or prf'd or anything else go away?
No you can't. In trying to find accurate assessments of what may or may not happen with FnF, we need to operate within what may be realistic and what is not. Your personal feelings not that I disagree don't matter. It's BS, but that's where we're at. Hopefully we all win despite the situation!
How about a 4th amendment in the event of a favorable court ruling, where they exercise to sell into market and use proceeds towards recap?
Ok. What if we discover documents similar to Document 19, which show the NWS was based on fraudulent financials and/or additional info. showing that the GSE's never needed the initial bailout money? Is there additional litigation that is pursued in order to leverage a settlement? Is your take that they exercise warrants no matter what or do you see situation where they do not?
Even though most lawsuits are centered on recovery for P's, don't you think that when the mandamus affirms Sweeney MTC and extremely damaging docs are released, we will see an onslaught of additional lawsuits challenging the legality of the conservatorship, i.e. warrants?
I think this simply becomes additional ammunition regarding ultimate settlement. Thoughts?
Maybe you should let Ackman know
It has ZERO merit in the case of FnF.
Stop with the tech. analysis. It's completely meaningless! This hinges solely on court decision and/or administration.
I'm not sure that it's a given, which is why I bought close to an equal weighting of preferred. There's always the possibility of so much dilution that commons would suffer. My hope is that Trump would like to find a solution that is positive for everyone as that's the sign of a great deal. I would like to see the utility model and a deal that makes Berkowitz comfortable converting his settlement prfd price to common shares. How will they choose to recap? Every other question is a non issue in my opinion.
Trump admin. will act long before the court cases get to a verdict beyond Perry. FNMAS should work out very well with settlement possibly around $40, but I wouldn't rule out common doing well. Personally hoping that in the end there's an agreement to convert FNMAS into common under recap and release plan. Maybe 3:1 so I can add to my equally large position in common. If they recap through new jr preferred, the common is diluted with warrant exercise, but as Ackman pointed out, you still get to $20+ pps. Gov wins, prf'd win and commons win.
Do you have the source? Can't find
The proof of intent will be in the docs. You will more than likely see another example of fraud and deceit designed exclusively to steal GSE windfall profits by "the most transparent administration".
Goes nowhere
Investor Call Tomorrow
TOMORROW: Investors Unite Legal Call
WASHINGTON, D.C. — On Thursday, October 6 at 10:30 am EDT, Investors Unite Executive Director Tim Pagliara will host a teleconference to discuss the state of affairs of the many pending legal cases related to GSE shareholders, including the recent unsealing of Judge Margaret Sweeney's order denying claims of privilege over documents that the government has sought to withhold from the public.
Pagliara will be joined by Cooper & Kirk Partner David Thompson, who represents plaintiffs in Sweeney's court, and University of Virginia Law Professor Saikrishna Bangalore Prakash, author of a white paper, The Government's Seizure of Private Property Behind a Veil of Secrecy, which discusses the misuse of executive privilege in this litigation.
To join the teleconference, please RSVP to media@investorsunite.org.
WHO: Tim Pagliara, Investors Unite Executive Director and CapWealth Advisors Chairman and CEO
David Thompson, Partner, Cooper & Kirk
Saikrishna Bangalore Prakash James Monroe Distinguished Professor of Law and Horace W. Goldsmith Research Professor at the University of Virginia School of Law
WHAT: Investors Unite Call on Judge Sweeney's Opinion
WHEN: Thursday, October 6th, 10:30 am EDT
DIAL IN: 800-895-0198; Conference ID: Investors
RSVP: Please RSVP to media@investorsunite.org
I said on this board earlier today that Sammons is a joke, done this before and it's going NOWHERE.
Responsible media is starting to cover:
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/10/04/john-yoo-ultra-secret-obama-white-house-ignores-our-constitution-again.html
Sweeneys motion was written so well that it will not be appealed. Docs will come into public view sooner than later. Media will begin covering en mass.
I think the guys' a joke with a history of doing things like this - goes nowhere.
They are compromising because they have no choice and they don't want to agitate an already very irritated judge. Gov. didn't spend all of this time because "there is not all that much in that cache". These docs are most likely the smoking guns that show POTUS/admin intentionally deceived everyone so that they could steal the GSE money and use it for their own budget purposes.
Section 1145 (a) of HERA amended the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 to read: “AGENCY NOT SUBJECT TO ANY OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY. —When acting as conservator or receiver, the Agency shall not be subject to the direction or supervision of any other agency of the United States or any State in the exercise of the rights, powers, and privileges of the Agency.” HERA does not prohibit Treasury from telling FHFA what to do, but it does prohibit FHFA from doing it.
As Berk said, let's just see the documents and we can see whose right.
What are you talking about?! The law empowers FHFA to act with no outside influence. More than likely docs will show that POTUS/admin instructed FHFA what to do, which violates the law.
Yeah ok - I'm sure the Blackrock docs aren't needed for any such suit. They're only the accounting basis for everything claimed by the gov., i.e. death spiral. Standard practice to exert executive privilege over accounting docs right.
All completely off target. NWS was based on HERA. Documents will show that HERA was violated. Other docs that may show fraudulent accounting to promote a directive from POTUS/admin will provide further ammunition for all other court cases.
"The TRUTH is that all that bad stuff has been around forever"
Patently false. There's been a few documents released that have shown the tip of the iceberg in terms of "bad stuff". They wouldn't be exerting presidential privilege and exec. privilege over thousands of docs if they were just doing their jobs. What will you say if the new documents show that there was in fact accounting fraud, there was a violation of HERA and there was premeditated planning to take the money instead of acting as a conservator?
Ludicrous conspiracy theories like the IRS targeting conservative groups, like creating a false narrative about Benghazi, like paying a ransom to Iran, like Fast and Furious, like not knowing about HRC private server, etc, etc, etc...... ALL CRAZY THEORIES UNTIL THEY GOT CAUGHT BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T COVER UP ANYMORE.