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Not ruling it out at all. Under this specific proposal commons are $9.
Value Investor corrected - existing shares are noted and included. Commons looking at $9 under this plan. Prfd still better bet as risks remain.
Figure 16 page 36, as Value Investor points out, does NOT includ the current commons. New IPO as I have repeatedly stated where existing common holders lose.
This proposal as published in Bloomberg is very well thought out. The implication is that prfd will get their par, but existing common will be wiped out. The pps for new issuance under an IPO will not include existing common holders. Very appealing for gov to make a large profit on this proposal. Existing common are not catching on yet, but look out when people start to get it.
FNMA was flat on the day and I guess we have different views on what constitutes a good week.
Yes - I believe it's around 90%. The major litigant Berk provides a bit of a cushion IMO as they will not want him fighting for his prfd for years to come.
Those er sum real big bloks. FNMA down 3 pennys....hahaha!
"The power hr buying"....... FNMA down a penny. Must be the institutional flow coming in.
I guess I'm just as clueless as the major professionals who are all in prfd shares with the exception of one guy who couldn't exit his common position if he wanted to do to liquidity. But yeah......
No it would not be a traditional merger. It would be two companies in need of massive capital whereby common would either be eliminated for a new entity IPO or it would be so diluted that it wouldn't be far from zero. There is nothing "traditional" about FnF being merged into a utility model. It's simply amazing how most people here don't have a clue about how any of this will likely go down.
I'd say I've backed up my claims repeatedly with facts and math. Granted that's not as convincing as the Coors/Miller analogy I guess.
Extensive research + math = prfd shares
Extremely high probability. If not wiped out, then diluted to almost nothing.
Met him once 20 years ago!!! LMFAO
Look at the events and the facts that are literally in your face everyday.
Do you really think people here know better than professional large investors, who are all in prfd?!! Ackman is the only one and his thesis was based on the situation 3 years ago.
Yeah GFLWT....lol
He said he had one encounter with him years ago. He also never supported Trump. #clueless
Speechless!!!
He wouldn't. Bark is in prfd. Ackman has no history with Trump and Icahn owned in 2014. Doubtfull he even owns now.
Makes complete sense and would be a very bad ending for common shareholders.
If Bove's right and they form one company out of two, guess what happens to common.........toast!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/trump-budget-could-have-big-news-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
Common = DILUTION
The article has nothing to do with that painful fact.
Key takeaway: "As an investing matter, Bove sees a continued risk to holders of common stocks, though some preferred stock owners could see some return. Fannie and Freddie shares eventually were delisted from the major exchanges after the government placed them into conservatorship and now trade over the counter."
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/trump-budget-could-have-big-news-for-fannie-and-freddie.html
Yeah and when the day comes there's a restructuring plan or liquidation announced, prfds automatically triple and your common takes an instant 60% haircut. It's a binary trade, which is why all of your posts are so worthless.
I hate to tell you, but you're never getting 10-30x on your common EVER. Had we won the court cases, maybe. The case for common is over. Events and reality have changed. You're clinging to an old thesis. You are going to get steam rolled. Mark my words!! Investing is about adapting and knowing when to make adjustments, not clinging on to blind hope.
"The market"!? So you think some daily price fluctuations on OTC are indicative of the end result as it relates to the companies capital buffer requirements and restructuring? I shouldn't be surprised anymore, but I still am.
The part that is so troubling is that you see Warner's absolute passion for wanting to wipe out shareholders. In the case of FnF, dems are going to be out to screw HF's anyway possible. They're more concerned that a rich guy gets screwed than they are about anything else. Mnuchin can and I believe will throw them a bone by wiping out common. Mnuchin can make the case for prfd given the class IMO.
A lot of people think Jan 2018 is so key because he can get rid of the sr prfd debt and make his own move. This is true, but if they run the capital down to zero or damn close, they can make a move to liquidate and transfer assets to new entity. It almost seems Corker/Mnuchin have some set plan they've discussed.
Watt may be acting on his own, which screws up the above plan. This is why Corker was so pissed last week. Maybe Mnuchin is walking the fence, but I am trusting him less and less.
I agree with Jim Hodges point and I firmly believe Mnuchin will have no problem wiping out common equity. He could care less about shareholders. Prfd have a decent chance for success in the end only because of their capital structure preference, contractual rights and deep pocket litigants, but I would not want to have a large amount of my money in common. Nothing short of completely stupid at this point.
https://twitter.com/ValuInvstrToday/status/865227464582279168
Thanks for that breaking news. Really beneficial!
I can't even follow your point. New jr prfd if issued would raise maybe 10% of the necessary buffer at most. The rest would come from new common issuance, which is the main problem in owning common.
Years ago you analyzed all angles???? That's great except the situation is completely different now particularly over the last six months so your logic makes no sense. I'm pointing out some pretty key current events that affect your investment such as the highly probable HUGE capital buffer, which is going to crush your common holdings. I'm not here to short common and this is a binary investment that has nothing to do with people posting on a barely read message board. It's not my fault that can't make a case for your position.
Whatever. There's a contractual obligation for a par of $25 on my prfds as anyone who owns the same.
Through a settlement as the largest players with the deepest pockets are in prfd. Gov will have a vested interest in getting rid of the major suits. The prfd claims are the only that have survived litigation.
I could care less what you think. Hiding from the truth won't change the outcome.
The gov will want to re-issue new jr at better rates to help them raise the buffer and will pay off existing. The major litigants with real money own prfd and they will not agree to poor conversion terms should it go that way. I'm happy to get paid off or I'm happy getting $25 of common shares for each prfd I own.
The take away so far from Mnuchin today is that the capital buffer will be HUGE. He says and has been saying for some time that there needs to be enough of a buffer in front of a gov guarantee (which will be there) so taxpayers are never effected. If anyone thinks it's going to be even a reasonable amount, you are in serious denial. It's going to be so large that no one is going to be able to criticize it. Conclusion will be common shareholders suffer massive dilution at best. The common holders here focusing on the NWS are clueless because it doesn't change your end game at all.
This is the kind of posts you'll see from guys like Navy when common holders have lost all their money.
I think you're spot on!
I do wonder if he gets pressed by Corker & co.
Sounds like your a real savvy investor day trading common. 20.8% after several years. I made 100% on my SPY puts from yesterday.
Daily price fluctuations and the broader index have zero to do with this investment.
False assumptions!? What is the total portfolio size of FnF genius?
I think I covered it all over the last three days. Maybe go back and read it, then try and think about a capital buffer necessary for several TRILLION $ portfolio, then apply math and tell me the pps on common. No cornball slogans or emojis necessary.