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Provini has a very shady past. He got sacked from the Biden's family firm Paradigm. Here's an interesting read of him and his dodgee associate's past.
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2010/01/dark-privatised-social-security-story.html
you can see Natcore's cost per watt estimates here:
http://nebula.wsimg.com/13c1f1b6a50b8717db58f5cb118656b0?AccessKeyId=82A41D5164BB3AE47300&disposition=0&alloworigin=1
Bare in mind, when Silevo was sold it had manufacturing facilities in US and China. Never the less, Natcore's Tech is extremely valuable and highly sort after.
Silevo's technology is also silverless, and very efficient. That's why Tesla now owns it. But I believe Natcore's cell is superior. Not only is the efficiency growing but the CTM (cell to Module)ratio loss is close to zero. This will make every major manufacturer look at this tech when it is commercialised.
Some DD material
http://www.kereport.com/2016/04/08/coverage-3-news-releases-natcore/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/03/11/special-profile-chuck-provini-ceo-president-natcore/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/03/28/update-president-natcore-chuck-provini/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/10/17/denzo-confirms-solar-project-australia-natcore/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/10/29/hour-1-live-orleans-investment-conference/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/11/10/natcore-cornering-solar-sector/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/11/15/natcore-achieves-194-efficiency/
http://www.kereport.com/2016/12/15/natcore-great-news/
http://www.kereport.com/2017/01/12/news-natcore-watching/
Come on Scottie...Jump in...its not too late.
The deals not closed yet, but it looks like a formality. Hopefully there are no hold ups. All that has to happen is for their Ministry of Industry to confirm before the parties can sign off on the deal. Vietnam is currently fast tracking many solar projects so it should come real soon. I would say within 1 month...deal closed.
Then we'll see the first rev $1.5m engagement fee.
Personally, I can only see them getting 40-50% of the $18.6m if they were to sell their annuity. Because, nobody's going to pay $16m, $17m to earn $18.6mil over 20 years. But that alright with me. With engagement, cost plus, and annuity sale that's $10m plus.
That's ideal, it means no more dilution...ever. with a healthy pipeline of consultancy projects. I can also see their consultancy snowballing in the next 18 months in light of the emerging markets around the world.
Coin, I cant see them getting $20m net income for phase 1.
The $1.5m engagement fee is in the bag. The $3.25 cost plus fee is also in the bag, but I'm not sure when it is payable and over what period of time...does anybody know? I assume it would be on completion of the project which I guess would be pretty quick 8-12 months.
If they sell off their 20 year $18.6m cash flow income, I would think whoever buys that, would want at least 5-10%pa return on their investment. So, I'm thinking they would be asking maybe 40-50% of the $18.6m. Again, this couldn't be sold until the project is completed you would think.
On the whole though, the future is looking extremely bright.
Can anyone understand the 2 part question that was asked in the conference call? At the 26:30mark.
He struggled to answer the 2nd part of the question before finally saying he is not comfortable talking publicly about it.
Talking about what?
I agree. Also, C.Provini stated in Korelin interview they are waiting to announce Vietnam approval. And wasn't sure if approval announcement or efficiency announcement would come first...quote "it will be close". Well, efficiency announcement is nearly 1 month old now. Jan-Feb for me.
Details of Chinese subsidies reduction.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/10/china-to-lower-feed-in-tariff-cut-subsidies-for-solar-pv-systems.html
Yes, third party verification will come in 2017 with ASU and NREL collaboration. Hopefully, in the 22% efficiency ballpark. The cell degradation verification should be less than 1% which will further increase interest from major players. Also there's hardly any stockpile of silver left in the world... its all getting used in production. If silver ever reaches $30-40, which it will eventually, then major players the world over will be scambling to aquire this silver-less technology.
Yes, major player participation would be ideal. I'm sure they all would be aware of Natcore's technology and are keeping a close eye on it. I believe once they can achieve 22%plus efficiency with a commercial cell that's when big things will happen rapidly for Natcore, both in licencing and consultancy.
Tesla, I believe will be going with technology from a company called Silevo, who currently have a cell with 22% efficiency.
Tesla now own Silevo as it was acquired by Solar City. And Solar City is now owned by Tesla.
http://blog.solarcity.com/solar-at-scale/
There's no way this is the end. IMO
We should have an announcement soon for the approval of the Vietnam project. So within a month of that they will announce engagement fee revenue. Then other Best of Breed projects will follow.
You can listen to CP interview from Oct 29 (pre efficiency announcement)At 4:00mark he talks about upcoming Vietnam approval announcement. At 6:20 talks about selling revenue rites.
http://www.kereport.com/2016/10/29/hour-1-live-orleans-investment-conference/
I think the cost plus fee for the 56.18mw phase of $3.25m would be paid as the plant is being built as this is the mark up fee on all the components being ordered by Natcore for the project.
I would think once construction commenced it would take 12-18 months for completion.
Then Natcore would get $930,000 annually for the "Annual Partnership Participation". That's $77,500 monthly.
The longer term looks brighter...with all Vietnam 200mw up and running total fees over 2o years would $74m. CP say they would probably sell those rights off. So I would guess you could get around $30m up front.
Revenue Projections
I think we will see a revenue announcement very soon.
1.5m engagement fee for the Vietnam project.
It looks very lucrative once it up and running.
You can see the revenue projections for Vietnam on Natcore's website.
hit the "Ivestors" tab and download the PDF
Upcoming Interview with Chuck
http://www.kereport.com/2016/10/17/denzo-confirms-solar-project-australia-natcore/
Vietnam Project
Most likely the Vietnamese/European consortium:
https://www.talkvietnam.com/2016/06/200-million-quang-tri-solar-power-plant-under-consideration/