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"It took 6 months...but your .19 prediction was spot on..c'mon RXII let's get it going..is Mello still with the company?? "
Well, I guess that makes me a guru.
I thing Mello has been gone from the "Scientific Board" for quite some time.
PHIO / RXII is dead, dead money IMO
"higher high and higher low since 2019, it's pretty bullish to me."
It's your money so do what you want. But I've been in this company for years (unfortunately) and I'm telling you that there is virtually no way you can make money on it. Not with near-annual dilution / reverse splits.
Now, in biotech-land, employees can make huge money because they are granted stock options on an annual basis. This means if a product does become a success, they get to cash in big time. If not, their consolation prize is a very cushy salary. Sort of a "heads I win, tails a win huge" arrangement.
Jon,
The ONLY way a retail investor can make money from PHIO shares is to get the following timing perfectly:
Buy shares after the latest reverse split / dilution (which has already been done many, many times), but before some major announcement that will send the share price zooming.
What are your chances of doing this? Somewhere between slim and none. Consider PHIO's long-term price chart, or their years-long failure to produce a successful product, or maybe the reason why they changed their name from RXI Pharmaceuticals (hint: it was to escape the stink of failure and loss of credibility).
PHIO is pick-your-number years away from Phase 1 testing. In the meantime, near-anuual reverse split / dilutions will occur to the severe detriment of shareholders. Fact.
No, I'm not some imaginary nefarious short. I'm just a long-term bag holder.
And, btw, do not bother reading anything from Zacks - it's just an automated news feed worth exactly what you paid for (ie, zero).
"I also suffered a reverse split. But after doing some additional research, I did the unthinkable and bought more"
---------------------
Let me play the Devil's Advocate.
Let's assume PHIO makes good on the long-awaited (but ever elusive) breakthrough. A game-changing advance. Where the share price explodes 10-fold, nay, a HUNDRED-fold from where it is now!
Just when might that happen (realistically)? Not until Phase 2 clinical testing has been completed. And PHIO accepts a $billion buyout.
Okay... so when would that happen?
Not until after Phase 1 testing is completed. And when will that step happen? Well, not until after pre-clinical discovery/research is "completed". And when will THAT happen? Who knows.
BUT what is certain is that the never-ending near-annual ritual of reverse splits / dilutions will continue ad nauseum. Just has it's occurred about 6+ times before (I've lost track of the exact count). And what happens to your original investment by than? You will still be under water.
The ONLY scenario where you make money is if you buy shares after the very last reverse split / dilution but before the Big Breakthrough / Buyout. Good luck timing that.
You have a better chance to win the lottery than making money in PHIO/RXII.
"higher high and higher low since 2019, it's pretty bullish to me"
Definitely a bot. No real person could be this stupid.
"setting up for a nice run..."
Yeah, sure. Just about as good a prediction of your last post ("1$ for next week")
Are you a real person or just a bot? My money is you're not real (though I'll admit I've read some incredibly dumb real persons regarding this company).
"1$ for next week?"
Why not predict $1000? Do you have anything to offer, other than hope? You know, like a reason? I mean, just what big news do you expect by next week? I could just as easily expect a share price of $0.19 by next week. Phio / RXI's dismal track record makes that scenario more likely than yours.
Slimy, slimy, slimy...
Since PHIO is a new company (name), it has chosen to shed the utter stink of it's previous life as RXI.
Go to http://investors.phiopharma.com/news-releases and you will see that there is no news before April 4, 2018
Has anyone ever read "1984" (great book, btw)? In it, the protaganist's job was in the Information Ministry where he literally made up news releases. PHIO is doing something quite similar: simply erasing its history.
"30:1 but I could be mistaken"
Considering that the company already did do a 1-for-30 reverse split in the past, it seems reasonable they'll do it again.
"Buyers doing their own Laboratory Due Diligence in August, is typical of such laboratory investigations in order to be completely convinced of the validity of the Opthomalogy and Dermatology Technology in order for those Potential Buyers to justify a serious BID PRICE FOR THE PHIO TECHNOLOGY"
Oh, really? When companies are hot-to-trot, they jump on opportunity. They don't slow-walk as these potential buyers are doing.
Let us not forget how Pfizer jumped on Excaliard's scar-reduction drug back in 2011:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer_to_acquire_excaliard_pharmaceuticals
==========================
RXI-109 (hypertrophic scar reduction) is a failure as it simply doesn't work well enough How do I know? No photos says it all.
And the skin-lightener? The problem is that getting the drug to penetrate deep enough into the skin was something RXI could not solve. Note that study 3 (the last one) only demonstrated proof-of-concept - not efficacy. Talk about designing an effort to fail. The obvious question - which RXI never addressed - was why did they do this?
"I am a RXII/PHIO Shareholder since inception in April 2011"
Then you have lost close to 99% of your initial investment. And have closely followed the company's dismal execution performance.
Doesn't its unwillingness to be forthright bother you (lack of photos for the Dermal Scarring and Skin-Lightener products, for example)?
Oh, what about the wart-remover (Samcyprone)? Seems to me that it actually works. But maybe RXI never thought that the world isn't interested in a product that works only minimally better than existing drugs - but at far greater expense due to it being on patent?
As for the technical progress vs. "mundane business/financial performance argument - well, they've managed to burn through $100+ million dollars, all the while collecting handsome paychecks. I see no evidence of anything changing. Will this latest rainbow be different? Perhaps, but you'll need a 100-bagger to finally get back to even.
Nothole,
I see you're a new investor to this company. I, unfortunately, am an "old" investor who is well underwater (ie, a bagholder). Every "old" shareholder has lost 90+% of their investment.
Note that i am not some nefarious big-time evil short from Wallstreet.
Now that I've established my bona fides, allow me to opine.
1) PHIO / RXII has diluted (quickly followed by reverse splits) at least 5 or 6 times - I've lost track. But just look at the long time chart as that tells the same story.
2) As TheOtherGuy posted, RXI most likely changed its name to PHIO in order to hide their dismal track record. The dermal and opthamology pipelines have been halted and shopped around for 1-2 years by now. But, alas, no takers.
The dermal "franchise" includes a miracle skin-lightener "cosmeceutical". A very big deal in Asia with a $200 billion market. Only minor problem is that the product obviously doesn't work well enough to interest any cosmetic company. Not that PHIO will say that.
3) I guarantee that yet more (as in, multiple!) dilutions and reverse splits lies in the future as each dilution only results in about 12 - 18 months' worth of money. And any positive research results are literally some number years away.
It's your money, so do what you wish. But don't say you weren't warned.
"They have until 5/13 to obtain compliance. ... Let’s see how the rest of the week goes. They’re very overdue for an update too"
1) Compliance by 5/13? ZERO chance. Biotech operates in terms of years (sometimes decades)
2) My all-knowing prediction: the upcoming presentation will simply be yet another rehash of what's previously been presented with only very minor differences (if any at all).
===================
Why such bravado?
From Newton's Three Laws of Motion: Every object in a state of uniform motion will remain in that state of motion unless an external force acts on it.
PHIO/RXII's truly dismal track record virtually guarantees "no external force" is forthcoming
====================
"I believe there is value"
Just to dispel any lingering scintilla of hope you may have, consider just why RXI changed their name: loss of credibility. Absolutely no one is willing to pay for the suspended pipelines.
RXI/PHIO reeks of failure. The only value is the entertainment it provides when loser day traders show up on occasion.
"Geert will drag out a deal for the dermatological and ophthalmological programs to pad his share count"
Do you actually believe what you've written? There is ZERO chance of any deal for the halted past pipelines at this point. Geert is taking his compensation in shares as a long-shot that someday MAYBE this latest venture will be successful.
That's all well and good for employees who continually receive stock options because, who knows, someday they might find success. But for shareholders / bagholders? The chance of getting the timing right (after the very last dilution but before the BIG ANNOUNCEMENT of success) is somewhere between slim and none.
I agree that since Sears stores are little more than the Walking Dead, the sooner those stores are closed, the better. Better because the space can be re-purposed.
While select upscale retail malls are doing well, their less upscale cousins aren't. It's commonly agreed that much of the US has too many retail-oriented malls.
Successful malls include Silicon Valley's Santana Row: upscale, open-air, featuring nice restaurants, boutique stores (ie, expensive), and even a Tesla car dealership. (Tesla cars are popular in California, in general, and in high-income Silicon Valley, in particular. Tesla's Fremont factory is part of Silicon Valley.)
"Life style" businesses such as gyms, and multiplex movie theaters, can now be found in some malls. They are great long-term tenants. Plus, they attract lots of foot traffic.
That's good news (that only 1 of the mentioned 46 stores to be closed by November is in CBL's portfolio).
I live in Santa Cruz, CA, near one of Sears stores to be closed in Capitola. The store is a Zombie: more than half its floor space is curtained off with truly funky cloth screens. The mall, in which it's located, will be better off with the Sears store finally put to rest.
Now, the mall, as a whole, also has more empty shop spaces than at any time I can remember since 2008. My area, btw, is within commute distance from Silicon Valley - which is booming employment-wise. The same problem is evident even in some malls located directly in Silicon Valley. Make of that what you will.
To zambono and joeymoney:
Zacks, ValuEngine, and Stock News Gazette are simple robot tools.
They are worthless. Do not pay any attention to them.
seekingalpha.com articles, written by real live people, are a far better source of info. While it's true that humans are fallible (so I've been told), they, at least, try to analyze the companies they write of.
RXI's business model (dilute ad nauseum until you finally - if ever - get a deal) works great for Dr G. He and the staff continually get stock and options as part of their compensation - which also includes generous salaries.
Investors, however, can only make money if they just happen to buy after the very last dilution and just before a big deal occurs. Good luck timing that right.
So what is the likelihood of pawning off the dross (aka discontinued pipelines) onto other companies? Oh, somewhere between slim and none.
"I am more interested"
Agree, but RXI's ever-present problem has always been money (like virtually all small biotechs).
While immunotherapy is obviously more important than skin-lightening, the latter is where the money is. That, coupled with no need for formal clinical testing, was supposed to mean quick to market. Formulating a topical gel apparently was a difficult time consuming step, but it was accomplished.
I initially bought RXI for the dermal scarring. Then doubted its progress and sold out (at a loss, of course). I re-entered a position on the announcement of the "cosmeceuticals". Big mistake, as I should have waited to see how it progressed.
"What think you of that, Sabaidii2?" You make a good straight man.
Let me count RXI's many red flags.
1) Dermal scarring: At the 5/18/2018 presentation, no mention of the Scar Appearance evaluation, or whether the next step is Phase 2 or 3 testing. If RXI-109 was ready for Phase 3, RXI would have stated so. Taking into consideration patent duration (20 years), it's likely RXI-109 development isn't worth pursuing.
(http://investors.rxipharma.com/static-files/1308620d-dd40-4415-9ba1-8bfa1e528a14)
2) Skin lightener: According to the 5/18/2018 presentation (http://investors.rxipharma.com/static-files/09c6d08b-00fd-4cda-aecd-16207a65b1ea),
"Further studies are needed to evaluate the magnitude and longevity of the effect of RXI-231, especially with longer applications both prior to and after UV exposure"
Translation: Study 3 simply established "proof-of-concept" that an effect occurs. Seems to me, the previous Study 2 would have already confirmed that. So RXI is abandoning a $billion product whose development is pretty far along in favor of starting from square one with immunotherapy? What's wrong with this picture?
3) Phil Frost has lost Big Money:
http://investors.rxipharma.com/static-files/fd4e54f8-9253-4b42-bf59-19db62b7a5fb
and I think Frost also kicked in an additional $5 million. Frost can afford these losses, but still...
"The float is a concern to me, I initially thought it was much lower"
Yeah, RXI did a dilution about a month ago. Resulted in doubling the number of outstanding shares. In return it received $4.1 million - about 6 months of operating cash.
Again, barring a deal, expect dilutions on a regular basis. Btw, reverse splits occur annually after the dilutions force the share price under $1/share. NASDAQ gives companies one year get it back above $1. RXI knows the procedure quite well - as do the unfortunate share holders.
One more bearish point, the insiders have largely never/rarely bought shares on the open market. Only the CEO has bought token amounts over the years.
"Thinking about a starter position"
Allow me to give you more color - and the bearish view
1) RXI has been in start-up mode for > 6 years, financing itself via endless dilutions (5, 6? I gave up counting). Barring a deal (which RXI has been trying to get for years), yet another dilution will occur within 6 months. At the current market cap ($10 million) and an annual budget of $8 million, every dilution is devastating
One glance at its chart should scare you off.
2) This new push into immuno-oncology sounds great but be aware that RXI is literally abandoning all its previous pipelines:
a) dermal hypertrophic scarring treatment
b) Retinal scarring
c) Wart treatment (actually this one has gotten good phase 2 results)
d) Skin lightener: huge block buster potential is also being abandoned - which really pisses me off as I thought it would save RXI
3) Complete Phase 2 readout presentations for the dermal scarring and Skin Lightener will occur May 17-18. Major Red Flag if no photos shown
4) BEFORE investing, read the latest Conference Call transcript at
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RXII
Pay close attention to the Q&A section
If you're too lazy to at least read it then you deserve to lose your money
"How oversold can we get?"
Calculus offers the concept of a limit, where you get close to, but never quite reach a value until an infinitely number of times repeating the underlying algorithm.
Here, this means that while you'll never lose quite 100% of your investment, you'll get infinitely close (ie, 99.99...%). Never-ending dilutions are Wall Street's version of the Perpetual Motion machine. It works.
How does the LPC dilution work? Dilution means buying newly-created shares directly from a company. So why would "someone" buy on the open market?
"Oh, you mean Lincoln Park Capital. Was wondering what you meant by LPC."
You first mentioned "LPC" in post 4605. What were you referring to?
"LPC?" I assume you're referring to the share price run-up RXI is experiencing over the last few days. Yes, absolutely.
I admit I don't understand details about this dilution:
1) RXI pays LPC $500K to buy up to $15 million worth of existing or new shares over a 30-month period?
2) LPC pays the lowest 10-day share price somehow for each "$ chunk"?
3) Then can LPC just do whatever it wants with the shares (ie, dump them)?
Define "positive results". RXI's definition is BS.
Example: While the 11/29/2017 skin lightener PR states, "We are very pleased with these positive results", it doesn't actually say just what those results are. No photos, as usual (a rather large red flag, that one). And, most importantly, no deal from any cosmetic company.
Research for the skin lightener is being out-licensed (ie, effective abandoned) in favor of only the immuno-oncology (IO) pipeline. IO is in the pre-clinical phase and RXI has no money (but don't fear, massive LPC dilution is occurring as I write this missive).
To me, RXI's track record is one of failure. It has not "validated" the vaunted platform by delivering a marketable product. In fact, the only product that's making good progress, Samcyprone, isn't an RNAi product and was only purchased to develop and bring in revenue. Samcyprone is also being out-licensed.
Buyout?
Let's see...
1) Out-licensing of existing pipelines: Who would have guessed that no one is interested in failed research?
2) Skin lightener: The Nov 29, 2017 press release stated RXI was "pleased with the results [of Study 3]". But oops! The PR neglected to mention said results
Lack of interest in RXI (ie, no upfront $ deals) + the dire financial position = Don't expect much of any offer
Jan 8, 2018 Bio Showcase Conference presentation:
1) RXI-109 (Dermal Scarring): next step is Phase 2B testing (Slide #9, Audio 6:05)
In other words, not a runaway success as it's not ready for P3 testing.
2) RXI-231 (Skin Lightener)
Gel formulation was a significant step (Audio 7:30, Slide #11)
How well does RXI-231 works? Well, the 11/29/2017 PR states that on live, humans "show ... RXI-231 ... can reduce a change of skin tone triggered by UV".
The PR then immediately switches gear and talks about "in 3-dimensional reconstituted human epidermal culture" (ie, non-live human testing) it lasts "for one week after a single dose". And on the live humans? No mention. And how quickly does it take effect?
This PR was released on 11/29/2017 - more than enough time to shop it to cosmetic companies.
Verdict: Not looking good.
3) Samcyprone 2nd P2 readout due sometime in Q1-Q2 2018
Slide #14 summarizes dermatology Franchise. Looks positive (on paper), but who knows?
4) Ophthalmology: P1/2 Retinal Scarring readout due Q1 2018
Uh... isn't that what all the past conferences/presentations (dozens and dozens) were supposed to have done already? The only difference is that the latest batch of share holders are about to be diluted out of existence. But not to worry: RXI will survive just fine.
RXI-109 for dermal scarring will begin Phase 2B testing; NOT Phase 3. Meaning, 2+ years of development.
Bottom line, multiple dilutions are all but guaranteed barring a miraculous upfront $ deal (ie, it's not like Dr G hasn't been trying for a fabled money deal for years now).
The "extremely detailed"(sarcasm for those who haven't followed RXI events closely) RXI-231 skin-lightener PR has apparently not garnered a horde of deep-pocket companies banging on the door. So much for the cosmeceuticals being quick to market
RXI's problem is its finances. While I'd prefer the looming reverse split to not occur, it's really just a bookkeeping event.
No, the major negative is the planned $15 million dilution. With RXI's current market cap of about $15 million, it would be ruinous for shareholders. Granted, the dilution will occur over a 30-month duration, but still.
However, all is not lost: according to the last CC (Nov 12, 2017) "the Company expects to have available cash until the third quarter of 2018". In other words, there is still ample time (I figure 3-4 months) for that fabled upfront $ deal to be done before any dilutions actually begin.
The PR was incredibly vague. Market reaction shows that what's not said is just as important as what is said.
At best, RXI-231 results are less than impressive to any partnership.
"Does anyone consider we will finally get those positive trial results?"
Yes, trial results will occur. Will they also be positive? Who knows.
1) RXI-109 dermal scarring: The 10/4/2017 Life Sciences Report (http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com/pub/na/biotech-with-transformative-rnai-delivery-system-set-for-multiple-catalysts-by-year-end) strongly implies it's a flop (IMO)
2) RXI-109 retinal scarring: According to Dirk Haussecker (https://rnaitherapeutics.blogspot.de/), who owns 3% of RXI's outstanding shares - and who previously absolutely trashed RXI, says "Here, the self-delivering RNAi trigger technology is tested for the first time in the eye where for reasons of technical feasibility (more equal biodistribution throughout eye than in the skin) and clinical application I see the most potential for this technology"
3) Samcyprone: I expect positive results
4) RXI-231 (skin-lightener cosmeceutical): I hope, I hope, I hope (ie, we'll soon see...)
I'll volunteer you to ask him. If nothing else, the loud pregnant pause in response should be quite entertaining.
I agree with you. Yet another red flag: The CEO's now-obscene $611K salary. Up from a mere $500K last year.
As for Pavco's departure, I was also surprised but she's 61 so maybe she decided the time to retire had arrived.
But there are some noteworthy near-term catalysts: Q4 readouts.
RXI-109 is due in early Q4 (Oct?). I, too, am very doubtful but we'll see.
Samcyprone - I expect good news
RXI-231 - Studies 1&2 (skin irritation & sensitization) successful. Study 3 (Pigmentation reduction) is due to start somewhere between early to mid September. I expect it to take no more than 1-2 months. IMO, this is important. IF good, RXI's money woes could be erased.
My wish list: RXI-185 (anti-collagenase) seems to have dropped off the radar. Last update was on the Q1 CC (March 30) - and only in the Q&A segment (ie, not in the prepared remarks). When asked about its status, was told that RXI is still trying to develop a topical formulation that penetrates deeply enough into the skin to affect the collagen.
You have mixed up some other company with RXI. Your post does not belong on this forum.
4) RXI-109 (dermal scarring reduction) - DOA (Dead On Arrival). No interim test results, such as photos, have been released for cohorts 3&4, as opposed to what was shown for Samcyprone. That is a huge red flag. Don't be surprised to hear "We've decided to initiate a Phase 2B study".
A reverse split is not the problem. Money needed to stay alive (ie, equity raise / dilution) is the problem.
At a Market Cap of, say, $15 million, obtaining a similar amount to fund one year's worth of operation will be ruinous to shareholders. That's why lack of meaningful insider share purchases on the open market is such a big red flag. Well, that plus Geert's obscene $600K salary (up from a mere outrageous $500K last year).
The way I see things, near-term possible $ deals are:
1) Samcyprone - Likely as past phase 2 test results are pretty good
2) RXI-231 (skin lightener) - Status is unknown and it's only one month into an expected 3-4 month test study. IF it works well, RXI could easily soon have a $billion market cap. If not, not good.
3) Immuno-oncology - No way to handicap this. I'm pessimistic until after a mentioned 2018 Phase 1 test.