Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
How about that vote...ha!
Expense those options, tisk tisk!!
Sgolds....are you going to argue with Warren B. on this let alone the power of the American public? Who in their right J6P mind would invest in companies cooking the books given all the S-hitting the fan the last few years? Face the fact that the rules are going to change likely sooner rather than later. INTC, MSFT, CSCO and all their little friends are going to have to bite the bullet fast or else. Even J6P is watching.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030316/financial_buffett_boards_1.html
Go ahead, make my day & his! <GGGG>
MckyD's...also note that MCD has had VERY VERY bad earnings trends the past while. Time for them to try anything if you asked me.
[edit]
That's right Smoothy....you got paid, you got your phat options, the books have been cooked and now shareholders of today are going to pay the price.
I very much understand how this all works.
INTC as you know is one of the top 3 fighting the new accounting trend demanded by the public.
Nice rally today though ...ehh?
Sadly (I am an optimist and bullish on America) but I'm going to bet this is just another spike rally in a nasty bear market.
OT,,
BTW....I'm not short INTC right now. I will on rallies though.
I've moved to the Credit card and secondary Bank stocks for now With the fall in rates net interst margins are slim to none. It could be very bloody. Lets see how I do 3 & 6 months out.
Ca-ching!
dupe post
Smoothy...there is no App today.
End of story.
Remember email, mp3's, net mpegs &DVD's when they first took off? ...that was hot stuff in it's day & there is nothing in the pipe right now that is even close to those.
Pictures with your cell phone? uhhhh Nope.
Well sure they will keep their salaries, they have to pay that phat Mortgage in Silly-Con-Valley!
What you fail to point out is how the TRUE expensing of options is going to effect THEIR EARNINGS which has a direct effect on the stock price.
It's coming. Any company worth a crap is going to be forced to do this. Many quality companies already are doing this. Some are doing it to look "clean" others are doing because they are and the rest will be forced to by the public/SEC/etc.
I rest my case.
<<4:44PM Intel CEO says against expensing options -- Dow Jones (INTC) 16.20 +0.35: Separately says co's flash prices to remain the same. >>
Of course he's against it....dohhhhhhhh, his pocket would be nailed and his last 5+ years in earnings would have to be restated. There's a huge lobby against this and of course all in the name of money in their own pockets.
Oh come on Dew, T-Bills??
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=^TNX
Even the 10 year is @ 3.5%
The distressed debt he's buying is NOT as risky as buying many stocks. Who's first in line in BK? Not the equity holders.
So you are totally wrong on that comparison.
Yawn,,,
TEll me again how great INTC's accounting is....HA!!
<<Fingolfen: You pose some good questions. All I will offer is the cliché that the darkest time is just before dawn. I am looking forward to hearing from the posters with more insights than I have on the semiconductor industry. Regards, Dew>>
1)Dew, I've said this before many a time over the years; "we have no new killer app nor is there one on the horizon"
2)Commodity it is, look at DRAM, look at just about any type of mass produced chip the last 15 years. The cycle is about to take hold in the CPU biz, as simple as that.
3)These new 3Ghz chips are like stuffing 256mb of Flash in a cell phone. Useless & Overkill for 98% of the users.
On the bright side INTC as well as the rest of the market should get a good pop as soon we start tossing bombs on IRAQ.
The bad news is Warren B. has it right. There are not many values out there and that rally will be sold-short again.
Tadaaaa!!!! Options expensed, time to pay the piper Andy!!!!
Read this and get it through your thick heads:
Intel's earnings would have been slashed 37 percent in 2002 to 29 cents a share had the company been forced to expense options, according to the chipmaker's annual report.
Got it good.
Now Geeee, who has been screaming about that???
Only to be told by the clowns on this board that they were already doing this....LOLOL, Like I said GAAP is CRAP!!
Thank you, thank you, thank you.
=============
Intel details options expense impact
Chipmaker sticks by cautious outlook for this year
By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:13 PM ET March 11, 2003
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (CBS.MW) - Intel's earnings would have been slashed 37 percent in 2002 to 29 cents a share had the company been forced to expense options, according to the chipmaker's annual report.
Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) said its total stock-based compensation last year totaled $1.17 billion, based on a fair-value method of calculation, which would have reduced net income from $3.12 billion, or 46 cents a share.
Accounting and securities regulators do not require corporations to expense stock option grants to employees, but the idea is under consideration. Intel executives have repeatedly stated that they are opposed to such requirements.
Intel filed its annual report with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday morning. Shares closed down slightly by 5 cents to $15.85.
Also in the filing, Intel said its investments in private companies, termed non-marketable equity securities, dropped to $730 million from $1.7 billion in 2001. Intel wrote down $510 million of those investments in 2002 and $448 million in 2001 due to the ongoing economic downturn.
Intel blamed the ongoing decline in the financial markets for the woes that its portfolio companies currently face. "In the current equity market environment, their ability to obtain additional funding as well as to take advantage of liquidity events, such as initial public offerings, mergers and private sales, is significantly constrained."
Overall, Intel lost $372 million on equity securities last year compared with a loss of $466 million in 2001.
Regarding market conditions, Intel stuck by its cautious tone and said it expects a seasonal year and that the outlook is uncertain.
Intel said the number of computers sold using its chips should increase this year, that demand for flash memory is uncertain and that the outlook for the telecom industry remains weak.
The flash price scam was just that.
A marketing ploy to confuse and it backfired.
I said that from day one and again I was right.
Anyone with even the slightest clue or insight in the semi sector knows Flash has become a commodity. All you smart guys around here should have caught that one. It was a nice try though.
Will history repeat itself?
Mother of all sell signals released today IMHO!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Merrill Lynch Sees Better Valuations In Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030220/0957000522_1.html
""We believe that valuation is reasonable, if not highly attractive, while low inventory levels and low capital spending will tend to increase the industry's sensitivity to any improvement in demand," the analysts said.
Barring a sharp downturn in demand, revenue and earnings for the semiconductor companies should not decline further, Merrill Lynch said."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Give it 2-3 days at most and watch the swan dive.
ML will be selling like mad, nothing has changed as the same old games continue to frolic.
No, not now and it is not cheap by any imaginations right now
Again, singled digits and it might be interesting with that nice war chest of semi trix.
NDX rebalance,
I know the Naz did this and put some sort of 'rule' but cannot find it. It was 2 years ago or more when the first hacking was done. This was different than just throwing out some losers and adding some winners,,,ya know the normal stuff they do.
I'll keep looking.
OTOTOTOT
OK number person,
In true pig-ish fashion when BRCM stock was +$100 the dude's neighbor was going to cut down a tree because it shed in his lawn. He liked the tree though it wasn't his and he offered the guy a deal. "I'll buy you a garage." (or car port I forget which) so he wouldn't cut the tree down! LOL!! The neighbor said yes, fine, build me it and pay for it, and he did!
I haven't got the skinny on what the actual divorce was over, but I'm sure I'll hear about it sooner or later. Late parties, young women, alcohol,,,hummmmmmmm??
Ramblings of NDX data:
Company Name Symbol % Of Index
(Adjusted)
Microsoft Corporation MSFT 11.77
Intel Corporation INTC 4.9
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 4.67
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM 4.37
Amgen Inc. AMGN 4.22
Oracle Corporation ORCL 3.49
Comcast Corporation CMCSA 3.21
Dell Computer Corporation DELL 3.01
eBay Inc. EBAY 2.3
++++++++++++++++++++
Top 10 = 43.94% of QQQ index
top 20 = 58.75
Top 40 = 78.04
I thought there was some "rule" put into the NDX to truncate some %'s off once they got near 10% of the total index??? I believe "they" have already tweaked it once, but looks like they have to do it again. GFL QQQ bag holders, IMHO.
Thoughts?
ot-
Ole Henry from BRCM partied very hard, a wild man. Had a good idea going until he got real stupid. I have a poetic/foreshadowing type true story about his plight I'll share some day.
You won't believe this one but I was short that thing I'll bet over 20X from $250 all the way to teens. A GD home run call and took lumps and lumps from those who said I was, again ---> nutz.
<<That pretty much means CSCO is the only game in town>>
Yes, in some respects. Many of the others are going or have gone out of biz others have sold off that product line,______etc.
This all relates to INTC in the fact that one of CSCO's key components in almost all of their end product is,, waaalaaa,, high end semi chips. If PC demand continues its weak pace, this type of ASP decline for INTC/AMD/?? could be in the cards.
ps,,I believe this bump in margins for CSCO to be very short lived though. Stay tuned.
Margins: Knocking the crap out of your suppliers is pretty easy in this biz. Basically CSCO says I will give you X for that batch, take it or leave it. This is after they have delayed the orginal date 2 or 3X's. Poor little supplier either has to unload their inventory so they can make payroll and keep themselves running OR eat it and go belly up in 6 Months time.
Of course some accounting fun is surely going on as well, you can bet on that. I had a friend who worked @ CSCO who had some really funny stories on the games they had to play.
<<AMD is forcing their way into the PDA market>>
How can you even dream that up that statement? I suppose Broad-con(ha), Mrvl, Atyt, NEC, Toshiba and TXN had nothing to do with this whole thing...LOL!!
<<MIPS Alliance for Windows CE members include ADMtek Inc., AMD Inc., ATI Technologies Inc., Broadcom Corp., Marvell Technology Group Ltd., NEC Electronics Corp., PMC-Sierra Inc., Texas Instruments Inc. and Toshiba Corp. Microsoft is hosting more than 50 executives from MIPS licensees today in Redmond, Wash., for the first MIPS and Microsoft Executive Summit, to share the latest Windows CE and MIPS technology road maps and business strategies>>
<Despite all the above, I don’t own CSCO and don’t recommend it at the current price. It simply isn’t cheap enough, IMO. Dew>
Single digits?? ;+) hahahaah!
Low sales ahead for Crisco means not so good for many others!
You're on IGNORE now too for your useless insight:
<<Also a large percentage of their current options have a strike price in the $30s $40s and even $60s. So consider that as well. So most will take years to have any value, if ever.>>
But wait I thought it was too the moon?
dohhhh?
,,,those silly Intelevangelists.
===>> UAK
Ha. Single's are not so far away if an IBM/AMD combo gets rolling <GGGG>
This should be fun to watch!
ps, change your ID to TMTA-Diligence !!!
===>> UAK
Otellini exercised an option that netted him millions.
In essence he has many more options down the pipe so why hold a dwindling asset that he'll get more of later for free?
What he did was make a smart financial decision.
Every case and situation is different but I'm sure Mr. Otellini caught hell at the office for it.
===>> UAK
intelevangelists
That's the word I've been looking for.
Praise Thee.
===>> UAK
He could have kept some, but he didn't, not even at $16 a share. And, I don't see their PR dept giving that reason either.
He does have more options though so I guess he's not a totally cashing out.
===>> UAK
COO sells A HUGE % of his shares!
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
(don't try to chalk this up to random, tax, or diversification reasons. It's very clear he's selling most of the farm)
===>> UAK
{ot}
About ParthusCeva, Inc.
Headquartered in San Jose, with principal offices in Dublin, Ireland, and Herzeliya, Israel, ParthusCeva (NasdaqNM:PCVA - News) (London:PCV.L - News) is a leading licensor of DSP and application-specific platform Intellectual Property (IP) to the semiconductor industry. ParthusCeva was created through the combination of Parthus Technologies plc, a leading provider of application-specific platform IP, and Ceva, formerly the licensing division of DSP Group, Inc.
--DSP Group was a good runner in it's day, in fact I ran into one of these articles a few days ago while taking a shat, :
http://www.ebnews.com/search.jhtml;jsessionid=EOUWM3CPYQ234QSNDBCSKHSCJUMEIJVN?_DARGS=/storyTemplate...
===>> UAK
Dew..you should really try to stay on my good side.
<<You should leave those kinds of remarks for the likes of Usuck. Regards, Dew>>
I just call it like I see it & some people can't handle it.
I called the SOX to have ANOTHER 50% drop when it was at 600 over 18months ago. Everyone laughed at my 300 target and called me names & tried to discredit me. Look at me now
I would not rule out the final leg down to 150-100. You heard it first, SOX 150.
===>> UAK
That Kulak article was great too bad MSFT & IBM rained all over it and gave it the flush.
Ole Tom don't move the markets like he use to.
You all saw first hand how right I am today.
(taking a bow)
===>> UAK
Sniff sniff for poor Technuboy, who also should have sold at $20+. Even those in print agree with me that valuations of INTC are too high, you guys just can't stand the fact that I've likely been on the right track all along.
========================
http://www.forbes.com/2003/01/15/cx_ah_0115intel.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
The industry is moving toward ever-more expensive manufacturing technologies. Bryant said that Intel plans to spend half of its capital expenditure budget on wafer fab equipment, and of that the majority will be on equipment to handle larger 300-millimeter silicon wafers. Bigger wafers mean more chips per wafer, and a corresponding increase in efficiency. Additionally, Intel is expecting to push toward 90-nanometer manufacturing technology that will decrease the size of chips by decreasing the size of the elements on the chip itself.
Doug Lee, analyst with Bank of America Securities in San Francisco, acknowledges the outsourcing trend, but remains cautious. "You have to consider what the rate of recovery looks like in the end market," he says. "Things are looking better this year, better than they have in the past two years, but the rate of recovery doesn't justify where some of these stocks have been trading."
===>> UAK
You were the one who started the bet.
What do I get if I'm right???
There is no incentive for me to take the bet even up, $130 is a pure waste of time. Since you're so SURE it won't & can't happen have some balls Dew! <GGG> You're 130$ sure? Oh that's agresssive LOL!
My previous estimate was .60, BS just cut theirs to .58 where are everyone elses numbers since they know SO MUCH about mighty INTC?
"7:46AM Intel estimate, price target cut by Bear Stearns (INTC) 17.79: Bear Stearns cuts 2003 est to $0.58 from $0.65 due to higher taxes and a shift to GAAP earnings, and lowers price target to $22 from $24 due to a reduction in their target multiple; maintains Outperform rating based on favorable near term demand, but notes the risk from weak end-mkt demand and says that if corporate demand doesn't improve "we could be in for another long summer."
===>> UAK
Yeah and 30y rates had just come down from 15% in 1981 to 10% in 1982!
A whole different game this time - as I refer to the "New Game".
Ok, I say that's about 100-1 odd's given that all INTC has to do is stay flat, down or whatever and NOT TO TOUCH intraday at or below $9.99. Hey it's the baddest chip maker in the world right?
I'm the house on this so I have to make worth my while, so If I'm right you'd owe me $13K. <GGGG> You in?
(Institutions would support the heck out of that level & I doubt it would crack it on the first try unless it was some real nasty news or something. I'm just short for low teens again in early 2003 with a shot for single digits if it gets fugly, see I'm not greedy)
===>> UAK
Exactly.
What was INTC's previous guidance on CAPX for 2003?
===>> UAK
NO it is not over my head, far from it.
What was INTC saying about 2003 CAPX 6 months ago?
You could look at it that way I agree, but I see it more of a sign of the New Game. Look at all the posts here the last year+ from Wanabe and others who keep pointing to how INTC always spends their way out(rebuilds) during the down cycles. Either they've done it again and are ahead of plan or they don't have the visibility and are like a deer in headlights at this point. I'm voting for the truck with its high beams on <GG>
It all comes down to the economy. A weak recovery is not going help INTC's numbers in a meaningful way and the double dip already seems to be in progress. Cutting CAPX will help the bottom line for short term but IMHO it's a signal of more rough weather.
ps, you could even justify the drop is CAPX saying that the biz is so bad that prices of equip have dropped that much.
===>> UAK
Wanabe, the only thing I've been wrong about is that $1B revenue miss. Who knows maybe that will hit in Q1 since they milked the AR already. Don't worry though, that $1B DECLINE in CAPX is a real positive going forward, LOL!!
ps, don't talk crap about me if you're going to do it behind my back, do it like a man face to face. Or are you scairt like a little sissy? LOL
Single digits.
===>> UAK
more reasons, 37K more people who won't buy a new P4:
Kmart Shutting Stores, Slashing Jobs
2 hours, 31 minutes ago Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo!
By Emily Kaiser
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Discount retailer Kmart Corp. (Other OTC:KMRTQ - news) said on Tuesday it would shut one in six of its stores and cut as many as 37,000 jobs in hopes of emerging from bankruptcy as soon as April 30.
See the previous post, yes CAPX is going DOWN $1B.
Beat expectations because they milked the AR number, surely it wasn't a blowout, that was the OLD days with the OLD rules. New Game is in play now.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030114/tech_intel_earns_4.html
Like I said the other day, .15 per qtr all year long means a single digit stock.
One has to be accountable for their actions & no growth isn't going to cut it in 2003 either.
===>> UAK
Yawn, too bad you didn't sell @ 20+ like I told ya too, don't cry about it to me when she's single digits come July.
CAPX news was in the PR: 4.7 -3.7 = 1 BILLION, yes.
Actually it could be more than $1B, HA.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/030114/tech_intel_earns_4.htm
"Europe was strong, the U.S. was a little bit stronger," he said. "Orders continued to come in through the holiday season."
The average selling price for Intel's microprocessors was higher due to increased sales of pricier chips for laptops and server computers compared to desktops, an improvement analysts had expected.
But Intel also cautioned that capital spending this year would be between $3.5 billion and $3.9 billion, down from $4.7 billion in 2002.
===>> UAK