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Thanks, OC.
Yeah, next year should be exciting. Hopefully this year will end with a pop if details of the LOI are made public. I sure hope ERHC was able to negotiate for a fair amount of cash with the farm-out. That would help with the share price.
Good find about the seepage in Block 11B.
Wonder if ERHC has seen or checked for any of this in Block 11A via satellite imagery?
OC, that is the map I used for the overlay I did to show the basin's location in relation to Block 11A:
What's noteworthy is Dr. Rop's accuracy in showing the basin where Tullow/AOI originally struck oil with Ngamia-1. But what is even more interesting are the two gray sub-basins he shows embedded in the black Lotikipi mother basin in Block 11A. Now compare the eastern sub-basin's location with the tertiary basin straddling Blocks 11A & B shown in Bowleven's November presentation:
It is almost exactly where Dr. Rop shows it in his map. We don't know upon what Bowleven based this map, but they label this basin as tertiary, which is more like those associated with the East African Rift System (EARS) than the older Muglad Rift System of the Cretaceous Period. In the map below, Bowleven clearly classifies that area as cretaceous.
In any case, it's becoming more apparent basins will be found in Block 11A. But the big question is, will there be oil?
OC, I agree with your thoughts.
Right now the name of the game for ERHC is to book some proven reserves, big or small as soon as possible. Chad and Kenya have the best chance of being developed the quickest, not the EEZ.
Hopefully ERHC can get some decent cash from Kenya and EEZ farm-outs in the meantime.
Thanks, King. Yes, I noticed that slide too and the one after it.
Nice find on the Bowleven presentation. More evidence of the prospectivity of ERHC's block.
On slide 28, they show a tertiary basin straddling blocks 11A & B:
Once ERHC gets the processed results of the FTG, we'll have a better picture of what lies in the rest of Block 11A.
With the route of the proposed pipeline where it is, an oil discovery in the north or south of the block will not be extremely far from a means of transport.
I hope ERHC reserves the right in their farm-out contract to release information when they want, not when the operator wants.
Another thing to keep in mind is that there could be at least two plays in ERHC's Block 11A: the large basin in the north that we have been aware of, and the new "apparent tertiary rift basin" that enters the block in the south, that ERHC mentioned in it's SeeThruEquity presentation.
All too true about the JDZ. (See my post to Umbra.) It's hitting oil that counts.
According to Google Earth, the western shore of Lake Turkana is about 60 miles away from Block 11A, same as Tullow/AOI's most recent discovery. I wouldn't call that a long way away.
Distance aside, the more important thing is shared geology.
SM, the answer to your last question was answered in my post to which you replied. (See paragraph below maps in that post.)
True, we can't count our chickens before they hatch. But ERHC's block is still within the EARS, and shares similar geology as Tullow/AOI's blocks. And they are now on their fifth consecutive successful exploration well.
These things increase the odds of success. Evidently a "renowned integrated oil and gas company" that is "technically and financially capable" agrees.
Yep! It's awesome that the Lapsset pipeline is proposed to go right through ERHC's block. That would lower the cost threshold so that even smaller fields could be profitable to produce.
Umbra, as you and I know, nothing in the oil business is a sure thing. We all remember how sure we thought ERHC would hit it big in the JDZ, given the DHIs they were seeing.
But the continuing success of Tullow/AOI's drilling campaign as it marches north is certainly encouraging. Oil is in the region, and in large quantities.
Things are getting exciting again, with recent ERHC developments, and those soon to come. Thanks for your comments.
If you want to get even more excited about the area around Block 11A, take a look at Africa Oil's latest presentation (November 2013):
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/A-Major-Emerging-Oil-Company-in-East-Africa-Nov2013.pdf
It's a must-read for all ERHC investors. Take a look particularly at slide 17, showing the western shore of Lake Turkana in Block 10BA... it is riddled with prospects. All of this area is due east of ERHC's block. But there is plenty of other good information/maps in the presentation.
Southern Man, this is not an overlay, but these two maps give an idea of how close ERHC's Block 11A is to Tullow/AOI's newly-announced discovery, Agete-1:
It looks like the southern end of Block 11A comes within 100 km (60 mi) from the new discovery, judging from the scale at bottom right. Tullow/AOI have another target north of Agete-1, Etom, that they plan to spud 1H 2014, which is even closer to Block 11A. Their best-estimate gross resources for that one is 467 MMBO. And remember in ERHC's SeeThruEquity presentation, they drew attention to an "apparent tertiary rift basin" that enters the block in the south, as identified from gravity maps derived from satellite measurements. See my post here.
From this map, it is plain to see that there are plenty of prospects in the area around ERHC's block.
Kobi, I don't think it was a mistake in the presentation. On slide 8, it states, "One oil block in Republic of Chad". Hard to mistakenly substitute "One" for "Three".
Did you see my post here?
I think ERHC is just waiting for official approval from Chad on the reduction of their acreage. Dan's reply to bmu, makes the same connection to the 10-Q. So, without confirming something that hasn't been confirmed yet (or make a non-public disclosure), all he can do is help connect the dots for those who can read between the lines.
Though Dan is maligned in these quarters, I think he does a good job of communicating as much as he can. It is unrealistic to expect him to divulge material information that is not yet official, or privileged or strategic.
I view the apparent reduction of Chad acreage as a positive development. Why pay fees/leases on land you are not in a position to do work on (or been unable to sign up partners for)? Especially when you need to conserve as much cash as possible.
The directory on the web server where these Chad images are stored is named "2013/01", and the date for chadmap-3.jpg is 2/1/2013 4:14 PM (download the jpg, right-click, and open Properties; look at "Date taken" on the Details tab).
http://amazoil.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/
This is well before the last 2 10-Qs and ERHC's latest presentation. Legally, ERHC would have had to make mention of any change in disposition of their Chad assets in the 10-Q, and certainly would not have featured BDS-2008 in an investment presentation if it was being taken away from them.
So either this is a mix-up as mentioned by another poster or this is another one of those scam companies that are claiming assets that don't belong to them (as we saw for Addax in the past).
Your wish has been granted (by ERHC)... with today's announcement that the FTG has commenced. It should be a good week for all longs.
Another piece of ammunition gone!
Nice comparison of ERHC's planned exploration well to Tullow's Ngamia-1 well and OPIC's Benoy-1 well in the SeeThruEquity presentation:
Combined with the latest report from Caracal, this makes me even more optimistic about ERHC's prospects in Chad.
Good catch, King! On slide 8, it says "One oil block in Republic of Chad". On slides 28 & 32, the northern half of Chari Ouest III is not labeled with the ERHC name.
Evidently this is what the June 30th 10-Q referred to when it noted:
Thanks for posting SM. Surprised there were only a couple posts regarding ERHC's SeeThruEquity presentation.
Don't recall seeing any estimates for Block 11A before (point 3 below), and the fact that there are two rift areas:
Like the slides comparing Block 11A to Tullow's rift margin plays:
Our focus has been primarily on the basins in the north of the block, but the first of this pair of slides highlights the southern part of the block, which gets ERHC closer to Tullow's discoveries.
LOI consummation - a shut-up for the F.U.D. mongers and naysayers
I like the terms used in the press release:
"ERHC has concluded a farm-out agreement with a renowned integrated oil and gas company."
"This is an excellent time for the entry of a technically and financially capable operating partner."
Whether this partner turns out to be Cepsa or not, it is apparent they have deep pockets and exploration experience.
With Peter Thou as ERHC's point man in Kenya and a native son of NOCK, it would be reasonable to expect the government approval to go through without any hitches, if not in an expeditious manner.
Will be keenly interested in how much money ERHC receives upfront and what percentage they retain in the block. This deal could be a major pivot point for ERHC.
Arnim, there is an "ENG" link on the page you posted regarding Sinoangol. Here's the English text:
Don't know if something's been cooking for that long. But my gut feeling is that this relationship has been in the works since at least late last year.
1. I was upset initially that SEO did not participate in the rights offering. But I think there was a reason he did not participate (beyond having other commitments), and that he was not worried whether ERHC would be getting needed funds.
2. DK was resolute that regardless of the outcome of the rights offering, ERHC would be getting funds.
Given IPIC's interest in investing in companies, could it be that not only might they be farming in thru CESPA, but also taking an equity position in the company?
Time will tell. - LT
Here is a 2009 presentation by Thuo, et al, comparing the Lotikipi, Gatome, Lokichar, and Kerio basins:
http://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2009/10188tiercelin/images/tiercelin_ppt.pdf
I found this by searching on the Geology and Geophysics of the Lotikipi Plain paper that Tryoty posted about here. It is a reference for this slide presentation.
As to relative prospectivity, Lotikipi is ranked last (slide 17), because of the questionability of good source rocks. This does not mean there is not oil, just that good source rock is an unknown at this point.
Slide 7 states that sediments are 700 m (2300 ft) thick in the Lotikipi Basin.
In his 2009 paper, Dr. Thuo states this regarding potential source rocks for Lotikipi:
Notice Dr. Thuo concludes by saying, "It is however reasonable to expect... thick lacustrine shales which may have source rock potential may exist in the deeper parts of the basin (e.g. Morley, 1999)." (Reference again made to Tryoty's 1999 paper.)
Nice find, Southern Man!
Here are a couple maps from that document.
These water basins are in the same location as Bernard Rop's potential petroleum basins:
Perhaps creekology will prove favorable for ERHC.
And notice the string of sedimentary basins leading from Tullow/Africa Oil's discoveries to those in ERHC's Block 11A, as depicted in this map. I like what I see.
Not at all jimbo. That's what we're all here for. Nice to have additional discussion on the facts at hand.
Jimbo, here's that same map overlayed on ERHC's Block 11A:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=78941877
What's nice is that the author also correctly identified (in 2011) the basins in which Tullow has hit oil in abundance, south of ERHC's block.
If you click on "potential petroleum basins" in that post, you'll get an up-close view of ERHC's basins. - LT
Thanks tamtam. Will keep in mind.
Not surprised we haven't heard anything in regard to the letter of intent. Probably waiting on the analysis of the FTG.
Let's hope it enables ERHC to up the ante on any farm-out deal.
The newly discovered aquifer does nearly coincide with Bernard Kipsang Rop's basin on the map from his paper. This lends weight to the geologic accuracy of his research paper.
Within that basin he shows and comments on two sub-basins (shown in lighter gray). About this area, he comments:
New Caracal Energy (formerly Griffiths) presentation:
http://www.caracalenergy.com/i/pdf/ppt/Presentation-July2013.pdf
The file was created on 7/16/2013.
Maps on pages numbered 22 & 23 (actual pages 23 & 24) show deviations of the new pipeline to the south from previous portrayals, even those earlier in the PDF. Doesn't affect ERHC's initial focus areas though, since they are north of Tega and Maku, and the proposed pipeline will still be fairly close to those prospects. Map on page 23 (actual 24) shows Tega as a 124 mmboe prospect and Maku as 130 mmboe (3 prospects combined), both figures unrisked.
Also, page 29 (actual 30) shows the PSC regime for the Badila and Mangara EXAs.
Great informative video for the layman, Tryoty. Thanks for posting!
2IRAs, that's probably why Bell Geo was able to come in with the most attractive bid. Since they were already going to be in the area, their mobilization costs would be reduced for a second, nearby block.
Here's a link to a case study in which FTG was used in a basin with volcanic (basalt) deposits like ERHC's Block 11A, to "see" under those deposits:
http://bellgeospace.com/doc/Bell-Geospace-3DFTG-noLE.pdf
Here's a short that's a little more extemporaneous and shows some personality:
Thanks for posting this Homeport. Perhaps Marathon is going to focus more on the East Coast of Africa.
Their operations in Kenya:
Homeport,I especially like this part of news release you posted:
Yes, I think this helps to keep our expectations realistic as far as the JDZ goes.
No matter what partner ERHC had, that would not have changed the geology of the JDZ, nor the oh-so-promising DHIs that turned out to be gas.
But looking at the slide, there is one fault from the main detachement that extends all the way into ERHC's Block 3, and that happens to be the area named "Ebiye". - LT
Ebiye update
Earlier I had commented on the name "Ebiye" showing up on Peter's Namibia presentation:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=87566841
I asked Dan about this and he had the following to say:
Closer to 9 cents and rising.