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Shareholder meeting, June 11th
Not sure if this has been posted...from Sophia earlier today:
dat
Hi!
Yes there is - June 11th here in Vancouver at the Four Seasons Hotel at 10:00.
http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/financial-calendar.asp
I hope you can make it - Keith usually gives a presentation for everyone attending.
Best regards,
Sophia
Very good news, IMO. With talk about a farm out later this year (or in 2016), I'm hoping we end the year strong and at much higher SP. What a ride this has been.
Reserves report later this year will be stronger...hopefully MUCH bigger. World oil prices are bouncing back and WTI should be north of $70/barrel (maybe much more) by year's end. Give the Kenyan govt a kick in the rear to improve the Capital Gains taxes adn deciding on the Uganda-Kenya pipeline and we will be climbing back up.
Holding for an all out sale for farm out. Lundins are smart.
dat
Also, note there is a Conference Call scheduled for Thursday, Feb 26th. "will release its 2014 audited financial statements on February 26, 2015 with a conference call to follow."
dat
Here's the Company News release. Note the closing date is just 10 days away. I'm guessing they have the buyers all lined up. Also guessing that the placement buyers have a pretty good idea of good news ahead and the prospect of quick gains. They can sell the stock after 4 months waiting. IMO, it's good and I'm optimistic.
dat
February 12, 2015
Africa Oil Announces Private Placement and Provides an Operational and Financial Update
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Feb. 12, 2015) -
THIS RELEASE IS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO U.S. NEWS WIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES
Africa Oil Corp. ("Africa Oil", "AOC" or the "Company") (TSX:AOI)(OMX:AOI) is pleased to announce that it intends to raise US$ 100 million in new equity through a private placement of new common shares and has retained Dundee Securities Europe LLP and Pareto Securities as joint bookrunners (together the "Bookrunners") to advise on and effect the private placement on a reasonable commercial efforts basis at a price per share to be determined through a book-building process (the "Offering").
Operational update and use of proceeds
The net proceeds from the private placement will be used primarily to fund ongoing appraisal and pre-development activities in the South Lokichar Basin where the Company and its partner, Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") have discovered over 600 million barrels of gross contingent oil resources (best estimate). The Company expects that the net proceeds from the private placement, together with the Company's existing working capital, will be sufficient to perform necessary work and analyses to upgrade its assets in the South Lokichar basin with the intent of submitting a Field Development Plan ("FDP") around the end of 2015.
In light of the current and forecast short term oil price environment, the Company has worked closely with Tullow to focus the 2015 work program and budget on advancing the South Lokichar development in Blocks 10BB and 13T (Kenya) by undertaking activities aimed at increasing resource certainty. These activities include:
-- At least four appraisal/exploration wells in the South Lokichar Basin;
-- Extended Well Testing (EWT's) in the Amosing and Ngamia fields; and
-- Reservoir and engineering studies (including extensive core analysis).
In addition, the Africa Oil - Tullow joint venture will continue to work closely with the Government of Kenya and the Uganda upstream partners to advance the regional oil export pipeline.
Outside the South Lokichar Basin, the Africa Oil - Tullow joint venture new basin opening exploration program includes the Engomo-1 well currently drilling and potentially the Cheptuket well in Block 12A, a PSC commitment well that needs to be drilled before September 2016.
Given the changing focus of the 2015 work program to appraisal and development studies of the South Lokichar Basin discoveries, the Africa Oil - Tullow partnership has released one of its four drilling rigs and plans to release two additional rigs by the end of the second quarter of 2015. Africa Oil owns a 50% working interest in Kenya Blocks 10BA, 10BB and 13T with Tullow (operator) holding the remaining 50%. Africa Oil owns a 20% working interest in Block 12A Kenya with Tullow acting as Operator.
Outside of the Africa Oil - Tullow joint venture blocks, the work program is focused on the Rift Basin Area Block in Ethiopia where a 2D seismic crew has mobilized to complete a minimum 400 kilometre land and lake survey. Africa Oil is Operator and holds a 50% interest in the Ethiopia Rift Basin Area Block with Marathon Oil Ethiopia Limited B.V., holding the remaining 50%.
With regard to currently ongoing wells, the Engomo-1 well is currently drilling and is expected to complete drilling in March 2015. In addition, two of the appraisal wells currently being drilled on the Ngamia and Ekales structures will test deeper objectives below the primary Auwerwer reservoirs. The Company will announce the results of these wells in due course.
Q4 2014 working capital and impairments
Africa Oil entered the fourth quarter of 2014 with US$273 million in cash and US$149 million of net working capital. The Company anticipates ending 2014 with cash of between US$155 million and US$170 million and net working capital of between US$10 million and US$25 million. The Company is in the process of finalizing its 2014 year end audit and will release its 2014 audited financial statements on February 26, 2015 with a conference call to follow. Accounts payables grew during the fourth quarter of 2014 due to increased operational field activities and costs incurred related to the 2015 work program including the extended well tests in the Amosing and Ngamia fields which have commenced.
The Company, through its 45% ownership interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation, has informed the Government of Puntland (Somalia) that the Company will be downsizing its office in Bosaso, Puntland and will refrain from any operational activity and associated expenditures until the political situation improves. The Company has requested a two year extension to the current exploration period from the Puntland Government to allow time for the ongoing political challenges to be resolved. Accordingly, the Company has elected during the fourth quarter of 2014 to record a non-cash impairment charge related to its assets in Puntland. As at September 30, 2014 intangible exploration assets related to these properties amounted to US$91 million.
The Company has notified its Joint Venture Partners of its decision to withdraw from its 10% working interest in the Adigala Block (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the Company has elected during the fourth quarter of 2014 to record a non-cash impairment charge related to costs associated with this Block. As at September 30, 2014 intangible exploration assets related to these properties amounted to US$6 million.
The Offering - listing and selling restrictions
An application will be made to the Toronto Stock Exchange (the "TSX") for approval of the Offering and the new shares will be admitted to listing on Nasdaq Stockholm following registration of an admittance to trading prospectus with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Sw. Finansinspektionen). The closing of the Offering is subject to regulatory approval and certain other customary conditions including, but not limited to, the execution of a definitive agency agreement between the Company and the Bookrunners. The closing of the Offering is expected to occur on or about February 23, 2015, or such other dates as the Company and the Bookrunners may agree.
Common shares issued to Canadian residents will be subject to resale restrictions under Canadian securities laws for a period of four months plus one day from the date of the closing of the Offering. Subject to applicable securities laws, common shares issued to residents outside of Canada pursuant to the Offering may not be sold, transferred or otherwise disposed of on the TSX or, except pursuant to an exemption from prospectus requirements under Canadian securities laws, to any person in Canada or otherwise into Canada for a period of four months plus one day from the date of the closing of the Offering.
The securities offered have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or applicable state securities laws, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from such registration requirements. This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.
About Africa Oil Corp.
Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas company with assets in Kenya and Ethiopia as well as Puntland (Somalia) through its 45% equity interest in Horn Petroleum Corporation. The Company is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and on Nasdaq Stockholm under the symbol "AOI".
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements made and information contained herein constitute "forward-looking information" (within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation). Such statements and information (together, "forward looking statements") relate to future events or the Company's future performance, business prospects or opportunities. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to estimates of reserves and or resources, future production levels, future capital expenditures and their allocation to exploration and development activities, future drilling and other exploration and development activities, ultimate recovery of reserves or resources and dates by which certain areas will be explored, developed or reach expected operating capacity, that are based on forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable and assumptions of management.
All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Statements concerning proven and probable reserves and resource estimates may also be deemed to constitute forward-looking statements and reflect conclusions that are based on certain assumptions that the reserves and resources can be economically exploited. Any statements that express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, using words or phrases such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions) are not statements of historical fact and may be "forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. The Company believes that the expectations reflected in those forward-looking statements are reasonable, but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable laws. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties relating to, among other things, changes in oil prices, results of exploration and development activities, uninsured risks, regulatory changes, defects in title, availability of materials and equipment, timeliness of government or other regulatory approvals, actual performance of facilities, availability of financing on reasonable terms, availability of third party service providers, equipment and processes relative to specifications and expectations and unanticipated environmental impacts on operations. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.
Cautionary Statements regarding Well Test Results
Drill stem tests are commonly based on flow periods of 1 to 5 days and build up periods of 1 to 3 days. Pressure transient analysis has not been carried out on all well tests and the results should therefore be considered as preliminary. Well test results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery.
ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD
Keith C. Hill, President and CEO
________________________________________
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Africa Oil Corp.
Sophia Shane
Corporate Development
(604) 689-7842
Fax: (604) 689-4250
africaoilcorp@namdo.com
www.africaoilcorp.com
Something's up? I see (from Gimo at SH) that Sweeden traded 8.3 million shares today and our US price is up nicely - 12%!! (for a change!). Sure hope it's success with the drillbit. Heavens knows we need a string of good news with this stock. Fundamentals are still good, even though cash is dwindling.
Best to the longs, GO AOIFF
dat
Sure, but recall that KH said that when looking for the next round of funding, DILLUTION, is their overriding concern. You don't want to issue shares or sell off assets when the stock is at $2.00 a share.
The empahsis on 2015 will be proving up the existing discoveries and delay of the basin opening expenditures. They want to expand the 2C and 3C reserves...that's where the most value is added at the least cost.
dat
AOIFF Conference call
All,
If you own shares you should listen in. In general, the info was quite useful and encouraging. Here are my notes. Accuracy isn't guaranteed!
Investment bankers. Have talked to 40 over past 10 days. Most of the buzz is over oil pricing, not company specific info. Summary on oil pricing. No one knows the bottom, most expect it to end up $70-80 long term. Many think it will settle out by the end of this year.
Comapny is debt free. Only one obligated well for 2015, so going forward their spending and drilling has much flexibility. Will defer some high risk drilling until next year. Focus on reservoir certainty, field development plan.
Had very good results on 3 appraisal wells. Quite encouraged and good chances numbers will grow. Are gathering much hard data on existing discoveries.
Epir, good shows, may have trap problems, thick volcanics. Still encouraged.
Balance sheet. Numbers not available, but said spend rate has been steady so the analysts can do their projectsions. One questioner said $150 m at end of 2014. Hill said they had cash to get us to mid year.
Talkign to farm in and merger partners. It's not a question of if the Co can raise the money, rather it is should we raise $ now - in this low SP, low oil price environment.
Q&A
Budget still to come. Drilling will drop from 4 rigs today to one righ by end of second quarter. Have flexibiltiy to scale/reduce spending.
Lots of focus on EWTs for Amosing (6 zones) and Ngamia. Resutls by mid year.
By 3rd quarter they expect much better info on recovery rates and reserves as a result of the EWT and core analysis.
Volcanics. seems to vary from well to well. Always a risk. hard to see on 3-D
Engomo looks like Ngamia. String of prarls. Risk: source, reservir, seal. Very much a frontier well with high rish. Very large basin, 3x size of others.
Recent appraisal wells were significant step out distances. Hope for reserve increases. Ngamia 7 is a big step out, new pocket. Are seeing connectivity & pressure communication.
Big deal is the refining of recovery factor. now wide range from 16 to 35%. Hope to narrow the range via analysis.
Plans for Twiga 2a? Considering it but nto certain. First will do Eckales (?spell?). That one is a step down dip and away from edge. Eckales deep is next up.
Cap Gains. Lots of progress and much supporto including the Kenyan Sec of Energy. Keny to hold bid round this year, so CGT impacts that response. Expect bill introduced in June and maybe acted upon by Sept (timeline is from prior legislation).
Afe Costs: $12-$14m for Lokichar at 2500m. New basin $25 m, EWT - $8 m??. Completion $12 m.
Edosowan? Why not sidetracked? Had 3-D tah thoguth it woudl be big thick sand. Porosity ended up on 3-5. Somthing about nto wanting to sidetrack down dip. (didn't understand) Big area between Amosing and Ekosowan. Plant to step out Amosing 4 toward Ekosowan fist. Probably in 1st half this year. Still has large potential and they like it.
Pipeline. 2 routes. Either works for us. Up to govt. Study out in April. Are anxious to get it started.
Merger discussions. A partner with geographic Africa focus is desirable, but any partner is acceptable. Big issue is how shares might be dilluted. Will pursue all options.
If Farm out, what's CGT exposure? Farm out is the best scenario under present CGT. New legislation, Farm out is excluded from tax. Is a lower CGT a prerequisite for new parnter? No.
PSC renegotiation mentioned by Tullow. Didn't sound like it was a priority unless oil prices stay at $50.
Feild Development Plan (DP). Is it based on Ngamia and Amosing only? yes they're the core, but can be scaled . Hope to have FDP by end of 2015.
Possible for a rail line to move oil before pipeline. Kenya looked and isnt' economic, so focus should be on pipeline.
FDP timing? Hill said the most important milestone isn't the FDP (develop plan) instead it is the FID. (I don't know what the FID is!!). FID decision connected to pipeline route and hope for decison at end of 2015 adn the FID complete by end of 2016. (fuzzy translation as I don't know what the FID is)
Possible for a 3-way deal with Tullow, AOI and farm in? No, Tullow isn't looking for Farm in.
From here forward in 2015 the company focus will be appriasal and moving reserves from 3C adn 2C to 2C adn 1C. Keep building value.
Hope this helps.
dat
abbam,
Certainly market sentiment over the price of oil has impacted AOIFF's shareprice, but IMO spot oil prices are not the prime driver. The driver is success with the drill bit. Recently we've had three unsuccessful drills. Two of which were too clsoe to the faul line, the third was a dud.
AOI is an oil exploration company with two basin opener wells drilling now. Drilling success will drive the shareprice upward, IMO. Failure, well who knows if the shareprice can go much lower. Afterall we have already discovered net 2P oil at +/-300 million barrels - and those discoveries continue to grow and may very well double. Further, AOI has some 6 new basins to explore and many, many drill prospects to explore. Before you buy, be sure to closely read the January 2015 Corporate Presentation, just released. Also consider that the cost/dillution of raising $ to continue drilling looms ahead in 2015. Then decide on investing.
IMO at $2, AOIFF is a bargain hunters bargain. Disclosure: I averaged down somewhat with a purchase at $1.91 a couple weeks ago.
Just one person's opinion...I wish you good fortune.
dat
New Company Presentation out: http://www.africaoilcorp.com/i/pdf/2015-01_AOICP.pdf
IMO a must read as it has lots of updated/new info.
2015 will bring a turn around if we are successful with the drill bit, especially in new basins.
Best,
dat
Here's what Mark Sommer said in reply to an email inquiry about the status of Kenyan blocks and financial condition of the company.
dat
12/17/2014
Hi xxxxx,
Thanks for your email and continued support in Simba Energy Inc. www.simbaenergy.ca
The company is still working diligently towards completing a farm-in (joint-venture) for Kenya and remains positive and encouraged that a deal can be reached very soon. If not before the end of the year, I am confident that a deal will be reached early in 2015.
There are currently several serious groups at the table in what I would categorize as “late-stage” negotiations for farming-in opportunities with Simba Energy. Simba’s management understands how valuable the Kenya acreage is and with the recently acquired FTG survey the geology has been proven to be highly prospective. This has also been confirmed by the independent resource estimate completed by Sproule two years ago!
With regards to the recent drop in share value, I believe that some of the pressure on Simba’s stock, that contributed to the most recent decline in price, is associated with tax-loss season in Canada.
Then there is the price of oil which has dropped from $100.+/barrel to $56./barrel in just a few short months. This has had more of an impact on Simba’s share value than anything. This is the largest drop in Crude Oil in the shortest amount of time, in the history of OPEC.
Otherwise there really is no material reason for the selling from a corporate stand point. None whatsoever.
The company’s cash balance from the most recent financial statements (ending Sept. 2014) was approximately $200,000.CAD
There are several options at the company’s disposal as far as funding the planned, future 2D seismic survey. One of which will be to have the farm in partner cover the costs or at least share the costs on a pro-rated basis, once a deal has been struck. For now the company is planning the program and accepting bids from vendors, there will be more news and information regarding the 2D seismic in the New Year.
There really are no issues with Simba’s Kenyan PSC. The company has completed its work commitments for the first 3 year exploration term and are in good standing with NOCK and the Kenyan government. (Vanoil unfortunately was in Kenya for 7 years + and was unable to drill its first exploration well.)
It is indeed very frustrating to see this recent drop in value, however the company will remain steadfast and focused until the farm out is completed and announced.
Please don’t hesitate to contact me if you have any other questions.
Best regards,
Mark
Crunching a few (ballpark) numbers.
So, AOIFF is near $2/share. We all agree that it's way under valued. Here are a few thoughts.
We have 300 million barrels proven with many more prospective. That oil is worth $4 today (guess) and when the pipeline is built in 2019, it will be worth $10 (keith hill said that a few years ago, if I recall). The market is valuing the proven oil at just $2 barrell and no value for the company's other assets, blocks, etc.
On top of that we have funding ($350 million last summer) to carry out the near term drilling campaign of 4-5 appraisal wells that will increase the number of proven barrels AND 4...that's 4!! new basin opener wells. None of this enterprise/exploration value is priced into the share price at $2 if you assign $2/barrel value to the proven. This crazy low price just doesn't make sense.
AOI is in a real strong position to move up. All's it takes is success with the drill bit and time. Here's hoping for one or two new basin successes and a quick recovery of share price....then KH will go out and secure the next round of financing, or bring in a JV partner...
The low share price is like a punch in the gut...but the game is still going very strong. Gotta be optimistic.... maybe buy some more???
dat
Right you are. While oil price affects investor sentiment, we're years away from it directly impacting the value of AOI. By the way, I just read that Tullow's Pres just interviewed and says production in 2019. Yikes, that's long way off. I hope we'll be long gone (sold) well before that date...? 2016??? Who knows. I still have a lot of trust in the Lundin family to sell out at the right time and price ... they're much smarter than me.
Best to you... and our investment!
dat
A1...I hope you're right, but the technical and chart folk that I follow suggest that there will be some oil price recovery...maybe to the $80s and then another price plunge...maybe as low as $40. It might be short lived, but don't be surprised to see lower oil prices.
All for the sake of discussion....
Still long AOI...underwater, but hopeful....and 300 million proven barrels give the stock a solid botton....300 million barrels x $4 (yes, a v. low est) = $1.2 billion / 330 million shares (top of the head #) = $3.64/share. That's not counting any value for the cash on hand, potential to increase the proven, any value for the other blocks we have, exploring new basins w/in the next two quarters, strong management, strong partners, etc, etc. IMO AOI can't and won't stay this low for long.
Drill, drill drill.....esp 10BA, Lake Turkana.
dat
Here's an article says a drill rig is on it's way to Engomo 1 (a basin opener well in the Lake Turkana block...the block with 5 billion prospective barrels of oil) with results in early 2015.
Fingers crosssed. The share price needs a huge boost!!!!
dat
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000141423/tullow-to-commence-drilling-in-northern-turkana-basin
Question for you experienced Pink Sheet investors.
I've been bottom fishing for AOIFF shares the past week, so have been watching levle II price trades (don't have real time bid and ask...just the 15 min delayed data)
I see a lot...a whole lot of wierd quantity sales. Now I know there are urban legend tales of the market makers sending signals to one another via odd lot sales or small lot sales (ie 100, 200, 300 shares, etc) and I honestly don't know if that's true or not. One way or the other, look at these trades and if you really think you know what's going on, I'd appreciate your insights on what is happening. It looks fishy to me.
Thanks,
dat
Today's action:
Time & Sales
Price Size Mkt Time
$3.045 8 OTO 13:18:11
$3.045 7 OTO 13:10:09
$3.043 41 OTO 13:04:55
$3.048 400 OTO 13:04:55
$3.071 55 OTO 12:45:49
$3.076 44 OTO 11:34:26
$3.059 27 OTO 10:06:43
$3.07 1,000 OTO 09:48:38
$3.054 56 OTO 09:45:42
$3.064 700 OTO 09:43:43
$3.06 9,500 OTO 09:35:49
$3.0625 500 OTO 09:35:43
$3.12 20 OTO 09:30:01
$3.033 3 OTO 11/12
$3.043 3 OTO 11/12
$3.034 4 OTO 11/12
$3.074 6 OTO 11/12
$3.076 20 OTO 11/12
$3.10 400 OTO 11/12
$3.109 1 OTO 11/12
$3.102 95 OTO 11/12
$3.085 16 OTO 11/12
$3.085 200 OTO 11/12
$3.085 100 OTO 11/12
$3.085 300 OTO 11/12
$3.085 300 OTO 11/12
$3.085 200 OTO 11/12
$3.085 200 OTO 11/12
$3.085 100 OTO 11/12
$3.058 6 OTO 11/12
Knobias Headlines
Monthly Share Volume
Real Time News and Alerts
Thanks Doug for the past two postings - Tullow.
Nice.
Sharprice is unbelievably low. Just need some time and a new basin and we'll be up again. 300 million barrels discovered is a great base, IMO.
dat
A good place to begin your research on AOIFF is to go to the company webpage and pour through the most recent Corporate Presentation.
Good fortune to you.
My opinion...
Sure revenues from Block 9 natural gas would be great, but they are still at least 2 years away IMO. They need a pipeline (gas/oil) to get Block 9 revenues going and you don't truck gas short term for quick revenue, do they? (some oily folk can correct me if I'm wrong). Progress on an oil pipeline (that could carry gas too) would be even better, but that is just talk and paper MOUs. It's not desinged, not engineered or bid out, so again, IMO it will take a lot of time and probalby longer than any of we investors wish. Remember this is Africa and fast track isn't part of the culture and all of the materials, supplies have to be imported. So IMO with regard to gas in Block 9, I'd guess we sell all of B9 to Marathon or another buyer... instead of waiting for a pipeline and revenue.
IMO what will move the share price (now that the reserves report has come and disappointed...) is one or more of these:
1. One or more new basin discoveries... IMO this is the most likely price mover near term and what I'm banking on. KH said a week ago that we have two look alike basins to drill soon. I like look alike basins! Then we have Turkana 10BA with much potential...5 billion P-10 (see the presentations for the past two years) to drill late next year. So my money (literally) is on discovering new basins and success with the drill bit.
2. Serious talk or real offer to buy AOIFF or sell off a percentage. My hope is eventually, yes, we'll be sold, but we have another year of basin opening work to do. What price we get depends on where we are at with expanding out our recent successes and the new basins success or failure. I have a lot of faith in the Lundins. They are much smarter than I, so I plan to ride their expertise to the sellout point for most of my shares.
3. Certainty with the Kenyan Govt. and tax /takings laws. I sounds like some of the capital gains issues are settled (5%), but more ahead in national legislation - to be introduced next month some one posted a few days ago. IMO the Kenyans are getting greedy...just like we investors. The sooner the political uncertainty around Kenya's share is settled, the better for our shareprice. It would be nice to see some Kenyan Presidnetial leadership. IMO it is unlikely we get a buy out until this uncertainty is settled. Also, I don't trust the Oil Minsiter David Chirchir. He's a slimey one, with a big ego, IMO.
Disclosure. I'm not an industry expert,not a Kenyan epert... just a reglualr investor, long on AOI.
Best to you all and IMHO.
dat
Nice article from Seeking Alpha covering AOIFF and Taipan.
dat
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2496215-2-kenyan-oil-explorers-with-big-short-term-potential?source=email_rt_article_readmore
AOIFF's corporate conference call was recorded and can be replayed by dialing 1.800.408.3053, password 1251028.
Folks, this is a "must listen to call". KH and team answer many pointed questions: drilling new basins, appraisal wells, porosity, financing, Capital Gains, bringing in partners or sale, quarterly operations updates, 2x/year reserves reports, etc. If you have money invested here, then spend 45 minutes and listen in.
I sure wish I had more money to invest in this company. There is so much upside ahead over the next 18 months. The $6.20 value today reflects the value in the old reserve report (600 mm barrels). IMO the new reserve report due in 2-3 weeks will jump upward in a big way, based on our recent appraisals. The real big opportunity, however is in the potential to open new basins. 10 opportunities identified. 6 will be drilled in the next 18 months. Repeat that...6 basin openers. KH expects at least 1-2 new bains to be discovered. A couple are look alike cousins to Lokichar, which continues to get bigger and bigger.
Things are looking up!
dat
Operations Report and Reserves Report.
Reposting from Olsson on SH.
dat
Good news on it's way
Got some nice e-mails from AOI today.
They are adding new results into the reserv report, that why it's delayed.
New results can just mean one thing, more oil encountered!
Operation update this week, reserver report most likely couple a weeks from now.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.aoi/africa-oil-corp#64QMK8VVD4H51slk.99
Glass half empty or half full? (of oil and nat gas that is!)
The company hopes to soothe its shareholders with a Lokichar resource update expected at the end of the month or in early September, incorporating results from four new discoveries since the previous report. (Tullow said on July 30 that resources are currently over 600 million barrels and could be increased to one billion barrels.) Africa Oil is also scheduled to release its second quarter results on Aug. 8.
The Reserves Report (which was due in July, now saying August or Sept) could be a pleasant surprise. Reports on FOUR NEW DISCOVERIES....glass half full, IMO. Tullow said on July 30th - resources could be increased to ONE BILLION barrels....glass half full, IMO. It's all a matter of perspective.
All that said, to restate the obvious, the share price is in the pits ... and IMO it doesn't reflect the real value of the company. So...earth to AOI....get busy and tell our story! Time to dial up the promotion machine and get this company ready for sale in 2015!
Best to the long term investors, and all my opinion.
dat
Thanks Mailinrob... good info and sure hope he is right about craming more reserves into the report. I think we all agree that we need a BIG boost.
Like I said, my hopes are on a new basin, especially Lake Turkana, late this year/early 2015. I'm no oil guy but I can't imagine AOI selling out entirely before they drill that block. Pre drill estimates, unrisked (high estimate) for Block 10BA are around 5 Billion Barrels. Yowzer.
However, I could see AOI selling out just the Lokichar basin (10BB and 13T), but keeping the other blocks.....this is all pure specualtion on my part!
Long AOI
dat
AOIFF Reserves Report. Last week I emailed Sophia asking when the Reserves Report (due in July) was expected. She said she'd ask. No word back.
Emailed again this morning and Sophia is on vacation until the 11th. Guess we won't hear much until after then. (She's the staff who sends out the company news releases, etc, right?)
Depressing shareprice. Wish I had free cash to buy more, but all tapped out. We need a new basin with oil...Hope it's Block 10AB. Waiting for the sale of the company..... (PS like the rumor of Marathon at $16)
Also like TAIPF, SMBZF and Dualex (Tunisia).
dat
We should get some new reserve numbers later this month (per Sophia). I'm hoping for a nice bump up.
As others have said, we need a new OIL basin opening up. Still lots of drilling ahead and thats the business we're in with AOIFF. My best hopes are in 10AB later this year or early 2015. That's the most prospective block we have according to the Corportate presentations.
Holding with the Lundins. They're smarter than I.
Best...
dat
Tam...you took the words out of my mouth. I'm tired of the phrase, "buying opportunity".
dat
Here's a translation of a "must read" KH interview. Got it from the AOI Blog and SH this morning. Very encouraging, IMO.
Holding strong.....
dat
RE:Lots of new info from Keith Hill today (July 3)
Great find, thanks Wallstreet1112. For anyone interested here is the translated article.
Hopefully we will see the updated resource report before the end of this month. GLTA.
Africa Oil's recentupdate of drilling results received mixed reviews by the market and analysts. Especially the fact that Sala deposit in Kenya were found to contain gas, ratherthan oil, got negative attention.
Exploration Company CEO KeithHill is not disappointed.
"Oil is normally better than gas, but in this particular case, I think that the gas can be very profitable," he says in an interview with news agency Direkt.
Kenya suffers from a lack of electricity and the country's government has pressed hard for new power projects to become a reality. It's one of the reasons that the time from discovery of the deposit to a positive cash flow will be shorter than if theoil discovered.
"We will meet with government representatives in Nairobi next week. The advance notice we have received indicates that we should be able to get permission and sign contracts quickly, "says Keith Hill.
Negotiations will now begin onprices and terms, while studies on the environmental and social impacts should be performed.
"That part of the process should take about six months. If the groundwork is done right takes construction work not morethan one year. We should be able to be in production within 18 to 24 months, "said Africa Oil chief.
A longer term project is the 150-mil-long pipeline for oilplanned to go through Kenya and Uganda, a project with costs of 2-2.5 billion dollars, equivalent to 16 billion. The planning goes forward.
"The authorities in Kenya and Uganda have now largely coordinated their interests andboth want to have this pipeline.On the financing side, institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, but also large conglomerates inAsia, showing interest, "said Keith Hill.
The most optimistic analysts have talked about a completionin 2017, whileAfrica Oil has been on the 2018 and aiming for 2019.
"The most realistic is perhaps sometime in 2018 or 2019., I think2017 would be very difficult to reach," says Keith Hill.
A more closely related reference point for Africa Oil's nextresource update, which the company is currently working on. Preliminary data have been obtained, butmore work is information from a couple of the biggest fields.
"It's important data and I have high expectations," said Keith Hill, who expects to publish the final report in the second half of July.
In the slightly longer term, Africa Oil one or more partners todevelop their discoveries.
Another option is that the entire company is bought by a bigger player.As recently as April, a pair of such corporate deals announced, when Glencoreacquired Caracal Energy for the equivalent of more than 9 billioninvestment fund Al Mirqab from Qataroffered even a little more for Heritage Oil.
"It shows that the interest in mid-sized exploration companies is large. Iget calls about acquisitions or partnerships every week, but during the past quarter, the intensity increased, "says Keith Hill.
He continues:
"We expect to be involved in any form of industry businessrecently in late 2015".
The Company's cash is calculated with current plans to last untilthe second quarter of next year. Exactly how long will depend on the rate at which drilling is performed.
"After that, some form ofbridge financing needed, but it's nothing I'm worried about. There are many options, "said CEO:n
Africa Oil traded since the turn of the StockholmStock Exchange's Large Cap list, where the largest companies listed. Now wait as road showson both sides of the Atlantic in September.
"It is important for us tobe among the big companies. It provides more institutional clients to investin us and we hope for some newowners, both inSweden and elsewhere in Europe, "says Keith Hill.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.aoi/africa-oil-corp#tHQ6sYySDKUDTpRx.99
Here's a repost of a blog enrtry summarizing Keith Hill comments to Pareto (Swedish financial house) about a month ago. I don't know if it is all true, but if it is, there is a LOT of news due out in June. We have just two more weeks left in June, if AOI stays on their predicted timelines.
From the blog:
a few snippets of information coming out of Keith Hill as he visited Pareto on their Resource Day today on May 21:
New/changed info:
* Sala AND Shimela results will be coming mid June (Instead of late May for Shimela).
- Each well will get a separate Press Release.
- Hill does not know which of these potential basin openers will be reported first.
* Reserve update due mid June.
* Test results from Ngamia and Agete due early June.
* Listing on OMX Nasdaq due end of June.
* Practically all Majors have contacted Keith Hill (even BP now).
* Not intending to sell AOI in the near future.
* Hopes to have a deal made for Horn Petroleum within 3 months (noting that many deals have “fallen on the finnish line” before)
Speaking of Marathon (Block 9) here's another rumor ...Sala 2?
dat
From Africa Oil blog...copied, bold added.
There is some interesting information found on the website of Norwellengineering that is a company described as: “Norwell have been providing independent project management and well engineering to the industry for 25 years. “
The information is as follows:
May 2014 – Kenya / Romania / Congo
“Well Engineering and planning commenced for Badada-1, onshore exploration well in Kenya. Ongoing operations for Sala-1 Exploration well, planning commenced for Sala-2. Conceptual Well Engineering commenced for Jack-up well, Romania. Pre-spud preparations ongoing for offshore Jack-up well, Congo.”
Info on Keith Hill's presentation in Sweden.
Got this from the Africa Oil Blog...some interesting highlights. It's from a blog, so the info isn't necessarily verified, etc.
Best
dat
Latest updates on AOI from Keith Hill´s visit in Sweden (May 21)
Posted on May 21, 2014 by adminLeave a comment
First of all there was an interesting day on First North (Sweden) for Africa Oil. A whooping 4M shares were traded during the day with MLI soaking up over 1M as the undetested biggest net buyer/seller.
…Now onto a few snippets of information coming Keith Hill as he visited Pareto on their Resource Day today on May 21:
New/changed inf0:
* Sala AND Shimela results will be coming mid June (Instead of late May for Shimela).
- Each well will get a separate Press Release.
- Hill does not know which of these potential basin openers will be reported first.
* Reserve update due mid June.
* Test results from Ngamia and Agete due early June.
* Listing on OMX Nasdaq due end of June.
* Practically all Majors have contacted Keith Hill (even BP now).
* Not intending to sell AOI in the near future.
* Hopes to have a deal made for Horn Petroleum within 3 months (noting that many deals have “fallen on the finnish line” before)
Ethiopia, Block 8, El Kuran 3 - From Afren (block partner, New Age is operator) report today. Will study commerciality of significant amounts of oil and gas. Sounds promising!
dat
http://www.afren.com/news_and_media/press_releases/
In Ethiopia the El Kuran-3 well has reached a total depth of 11,575 ft encountering a significant amount of oil and gas penetrated in several intervals. Commerciality studies have commenced to assess the optimal way of developing these reservoirs.
TGLEF added to Dundee's list of top picks.
fyi
dat
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/article18463639.ece/BINARY/DundeeTopPicks050514.pdf
Nice piece on AOI and TAIPF (borrowed from Kenya1 on another BB). Not sure if it's a real news article or promo piece...(it reads promo to me, IMO.) Still quite positive and adds to the exposure.
I find the section that talks about sale of the Company the most interesting. In reality the time and price for selling AOI (if it happens) is in the hands of time tested experts via the Lundin family and loyal staff. They're a lot smarter than me, so I plan to ride their coat tails.....and then semi retire!
Best,
dat
Big Oil Consolidates African Oil Assets
Vancouver, BC / ACCESSWIRE / May 8, 2014 / The recent announcement of the $1.35 billion Glencore Xstrata (GLNCY-LON) takeover of Chad oil producer Caracal Energy (CRCL-LON) and the $1.55 billion Al Mirqab Capital takeover of Heritage Oil (HOIL-LON) announced last week are the beginning of a big year for African oils consolidation.
GMP Securities analyst Tao Ly commented recently: “following Glencore’s bid for Caracal, we think the significance of this latest bid for Heritage again confirms that valuations in the sector are low enough to attract opportune M&A…”
In addition to low valuations, the key driver of further consolidation in the African oil space will be access to rift basin assets. These basins have accounted for almost all of the billion-barrel-plus oil discoveries onshore Africa in recent years with the Kenya rift basins currently ranked as the hottest onshore exploration jurisdiction in the world.
With significant industry interest, low valuations relative to resource potential, and large rift basin acreage positions, Kenyan rift oil companies Africa Oil Corp. (AOI-TSX; AOIFF-US) and Taipan Resources (TPN-TSX-V; TAIPF-US) are primed for potential takeovers.
The first major rift basin oil acquisition was completed by Tullow Oil (TLW-LON) in 2010 with the $1.45 billion purchase of the Heritage Oil Lake Albert Rift Basin assets in Uganda. Tullow then sold two-thirds of the Lake Albert assets to Chinese National Oil Company CNOOC (CEO-NYSE) and Supermajor Total SA (TOT-NYSE) in 2011 for $2.9 billion. Tullow estimates that there is 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Lake Albert Rift Basin and is going to spend billions of dollars developing this asset with its partners.
Tullow has also been a leader in the rift basin in Kenya where it farmed-into the Kenyan exploration assets of Africa Oil Corp. prior to the play-opening Ngamia-1 discovery that was made in 2012.
Early entrants into the rift basins In Kenya have had huge exploration success and stock market gains. The market cap of Africa Oil Corp. increased from $250 million prior to drilling to $2.5 billion after the Ngamia-1 well. There have been a number of follow-on discoveries in Kenya and Africa Oil Corp. now has 7 rigs operating in the region with partners Tullow, Marathon Oil (MRO-NYSE), and Afren (AFR-LON) and is drilling six new basin opening wells this year.
Over 368 million barrels of oil have been discovered so far in Kenya with expectations for the total amount of resources to be well above a billion barrels of oil. With large scalable concentrated rift basin assets, Africa Oil is firmly in the sweet spot to be acquired by larger oil companies like CNOOC and Total. The question is not if, but when and for how much.
It is likely that Africa Oil Corp. has already had a number of approaches from Big Oil and is waiting for the right time to sell. This is likely to be later this year after the company has completed further appraisal wells and well tests to better determine the value of its discovered resources in the Lokichar basin. The company is also drilling a number of potential basin-opening wells this year that it may want to complete prior to a take-out.
One of the other reasons Africa Oil is so attractive is that the company has a market cap of only $2.5 billion, making it an easy tuck-in acquisition for Big Oil companies. Most of the other companies operating in Kenya like Marathon Oil and Tullow have market caps of well over $10 billion, while mid-cap companies like Afren have an asset base that is too diversified.
Taipan Resources is the fourth largest acreage holder in Kenya and has a two well fully funded drilling program in 2014 targeting over $1 billion of resources net to the company. Sproule International has also independently assessed that on Taipan’s operated Block 2B alone, there is mean gross unrisked prospective prospective resources of 1.6 billion barrels based on 19 exploration leads. Taipan has a market cap of only $40 million, making the company the other likely takeover candidate in Kenya in 2014.
Big Oil won’t be interested in Taipan, they are willing to pay billions of dollars after a discovery is made. But mid-sized exploration companies can’t afford to wait and will take the opportunity to make a cheap acquisition with two high impact oil wells fully carried and funded. With 19 exploration leads Block 2B would also give a larger, cash rich oil company years of drilling inventory in the hottest onshore rift basin exploration region in the world.
While the market hasn’t yet fully appreciated the potential of Taipan’s assets, industry certainly has. Premier Oil (PMO-LON) is spending $30.5 million on one of Taipan’s blocks this year to drill the Badada prospect after agreeing to a farm-in deal in 2013, and Afren is spending a similar amount on Taipan’s other block to drill the Khorof prospect this year.
Paul Logan, who was the Chief Geologist at Heritage Oil that made the original Lake Albert Rift Basin discoveries, also joined Taipan late last year. Logan discovered the 1.7 billion barrels in the Lake Albert Rift Basin, drilling six discovery wells in a row with 100% exploration success.
At the recent Premier Oil investor day, Andrew Lodge Exploration Director of Premier also commented on Block 2B:
“the trick to this is to attempt to identify the Tertiary Rift Basins within the Anza Basin which are analogous to Uganda and the Lokichar discoveries. We think we've found that through farming into Taipan's acreage. We took a 55% interest. We have just done some prospective seismic survey, verified the main prospect and will drill that prospect, Badada this year. The ultimate resource potential in the block is over 1 billion barrels but the key to this, the key unlocker will be the Badada well...."
Taipan is now fully funded for the Badada and Khorof wells this year with an unrisked NPV net to Taipan of $1.34 billion. This equates to over $8 per share on a fully diluted basis. Taipan closed at $0.40 per share yesterday.
The risked value of Taipan’s two wells this year is $1.50 per share. This means that an acquirer could justify paying up to $1.50 per share pre-drilling.
At $0.40 per share Taipan is an attractive risk/reward proposition for mid-sized exploration company. If the market doesn’t close the Taipan valuation gap, industry will.
SOURCE: [Resource News Report]
Source: Accesswire IA (May 8, 2014 - 9:02 AM EDT)
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.tpn/taipan-resources-inc#osq0aJwPmZBCGYWq.99
Yes, TSX is the first step and next is a bigger board in Sweeden. Nothing said about US exchanges that I recall.
Best to the longs...
dat
Excellent article Z...thanks for posting.
I sure do like these words: "Commercial threshold resources have been exceeded in the South Lokichar Basin. We know we have exceeded the commercial threshold and that it is going to get higher and higher,"
Commercial threshold exceeded....Higher and higher...especially if/when a new basin or two are opened up. Go AOIFF!
dat
Interesting post by RionsRun on another board. He notes that Tullow's presentation shows the Sabisa well with oil shows and then suggests that if they'd use the oil based mud vs water based mud in drilling that Sabisa would have flowed oil. That would have allowed Tullow and AOI to declare the opening up of a new basin (second basin for AOI). Now that Shimela is drilling, the prospect for this second basin looks even better to me! Two basins likely now... possibly three + on the horizon by year's end. Yowzer!
2015 is going to be one great year once the drill bit brings results. Can't believe that the SP is where it is today. IMO $7 is pretty much the current value of the first basin alone... pretty much the floor to downside price risk... and not including the opportunity value for six or so new basins yet to be explored! We still have 90 plus prospects to drill.
Holding tight for the midterm.
Best,
dat
RE:April Presentation
slide 28 shows Sabisa in South Omo, Ethiopia as green with their other hits like Ngamia only they note on Sabisa 'oil shows'. If not for the mud problem which they have since fixed Sabisa would be flowing, imo. I really thought they had Sabisa, the oil shows if I remember correctly were on more than one level. Okay we have the new miracle mud and Shimela is drilling.
Thanks for the presentation. -Rion
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.aoi/africa-oil-corp#jt7ul04iAoChQWis.99
News on Sala this week? Maybe. Reposted from TAIPF Board, and poster Henrik. Hmmmm.....
dat
according to Upstreams Barry Morgan:
Africa Oil drilling on track
SHARE STORY
inShare
By Barry Morgan 04 April 2014 00:00 GMT
TORONTO-listed Africa Oil Corporation is participating in a busy drilling programme in east Africa that involves as many as seven land rigs on both operated and non-operated acreage, writes Barry Morgan.
“Africa Oil and partners are on track to drill six very exciting potential basin-opening wells in 2014 including wildcats in the Chew Bahir, West Turkana, South Kerio and Anza basin in addition to three exploration targets in the Lokichar basin,” said chief executive Keith Hill.
The Great Wall 190 unit is drilling ahead on the Sala prospect in Kenya Block-9 with partner Marathon Oil. Results are expected this week.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.tpn/taipan-resources-inc#lzV6A2afHyXtLA66.99
Doug,
Two weeks ago KH presented in Stockholm. Here's a cut an paste from another posters summary regarding listing. I look forward to gettin AOIFF onto bigger exchanges!
Price drop yesterday was a punch in the gut for me, but I'm invested here for the midterm....maybe until the co is sold.
Best
dat
Budget/Big Boards:
Canada: by 3/31 or early April
Sweden: 4-6 weeks after Canada.
AOI’s budget will allow drilling to 3Q 2015. Keith believes AOI and Tullow will strike up a partnership with a larger company when the resources are contingent if not reserves. They want a clear path to development.
Thanks for posting the new Company Presnetation.
The best parts, IMO: Production infrastructure will be built this year and production in Q1 of 2015...that's just one year out!
Continuing to drill #5 and #6, too.
dat
Yes, a nice week for AOIFF! Here's the press release issued today. Confirming news soon, IMO ....
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - March 21, 2014) - Horn Petroleum Corporation ("Horn" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:HRN) reports that in response to recent market activity and discussions with the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, the Company is pleased to provide the following update. As previously announced, Horn is actively reviewing several oil exploration projects for possible acquisition. The Company is currently in discussions over a potential project but cautions that there are no guarantees that such an acquisition will be concluded. http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/horn-petroleum-update-tsx-venture-hrn-1891261.htm