Buh bye
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Agree with this assertion:
"I am not on board with the "buyout is imminent" train. Not logical at this stage."
Because:
"There has been no formal application for drug approval. No pivotal study results. No AXAL partnership. Nothing to strongly indicate imminent movements."
Now given the above, if some entity is willing to buy Advaxis right now, they had better come with a compelling offer. If the BOD sells now for cheap, i.e. a few billion or less, one would ask "why did they sell now, given what is in the queue? Is something wrong?"
We just need some more bake time. But when the oven bell rings, look out.
Nobody who understands the market will agree with you on this. Nobody.
DOC has been irrelevant since his departure. You might as well talk about peanut butter and jelly destroying Advaxis value.
It has the same effect and relevance.
I think that depends on EMA submission and events around that. If an entity is waiting for an approval, then it might move into 2019. Either way, it's near the end, relatively speaking.
I've stated earlier that if Advaxis gets to the process of EMA submission, it will be acquired in short order. Either:
1. Soon after EMA submission - within 3-6 months
2. Within 6 months post AA EU and/or FDA - this would command the best price.
I don't see the company existing beyond Q2, 2019.
I agree with you that it's possible it goes to zero. However, the data currently would indicate otherwise. Advaxis needs an EU partner to step, followed by EMA submission, and AA EU/FDA approval. From there, game over.
If your theory is correct, then they (the BOD) already had something in the queue prior to releasing DOC. And, if so, the conclusion to be drawn is that Advaxis is in process of being acquired (and at near closure given the conference withdrawal). So we could see news in September if this is all true. (I sure hope they get a great price if this is the direction they've decided to take)
However, I still see an acquisition as a remote scenario at this time, but I believe it's crystal clear that September will be a very, very interesting month for Advaxis.
Understood. I will admit that the current "silence" does introduce the possibility, albeit remote IMO, that an acquisition for Advaxis is in process.
If true, my bet would be BMS as the acquiring party.
I have NO idea. Your point being that Advaxis doesn't need approval to get big bucks in an acquisition?
If you really understand what has transpired over the last several months, and what is in the queue wrt EMA/EU, then you will recognize Advaxis is on the cusp of significant material events ranging from being acquired to securing an EU partner w/ EMA submission.
All of these events reflect a substantial valuation increase far beyond the absurdly low numbers projected by those calling for a sale of $20, $15, and even $10 pps, which equate to 800, 600, and 400 million valuation respectively. All obscenely and borderline ludicrous projections in an acquisition scenario, especially given that several of the major fund investors would potentially take significant losses in these contexts.
Having said this, I find it hard to believe that true long investors do not recognize the potential in front of us, which leads me to question understanding, among other things.
I will say this. Advaxis will not sell for anything less than 4 billion for a couple of reasons:
1. They are not for sale right now at that price
2. Their current priority is securing an EU partner as a requirement for EMA submission
3. Their current POR clearly indicates confidence in AA for both EU and FDA.
After item 3 transpires, you can forget about any valuations under 5 billion. And one more thing, for those individuals that can't get past the idea of going from $6 to $120 - "NEWS FLASH!", it doesn't work that way (unless some entity makes an acquisition, which is EXTREMELY remote right now). If Advaxis is to see it's valuation grow, it will be in increments as material events unfold. So, if, if, if Advaxis is heading in this direction, it's possible we'll see the following unfold:
First, EU partner announcement with upfront funding from the partner - this will result in a very significant rise in the pps for 2 reasons:
(a) The funding will remove dilution concerns
(b) Securing an EU partner will further validate future direction and set market expectations around imminent EMA submission (this will be HUGE)
Second, EMA submission - this will be the nail in the coffin for shorts
I expect these 2 events alone will push the pps well beyond a billion dollar valuation. And what we have NOT included are orthogonal, material events transpiring over the course of the next few months. Post AA EU and FDA, Advaxis could be sitting on a valuation in excess of 3 billion. From a 3B valuation position, an acquisition could easily see 6-7 billion (given the versatility of the platform), and this can all happen before 2019. That's one scenario, and it's a conservative one at that.
My gut tells me 2 things:
1. Advaxis might sell early, i.e. before 2017, if the price is over 4 billion.
2. More likely, if what I think about the platform is true and that it really does work, Advaxis must KNOW right now that they are sitting on a solution that will be worth 10's of billions one day.
MARK THIS POST.
If i recall correctly, H2 of 2017 was reiterated at Investor Day with some reference to Q4. This really isn't a change to their original H2 assertion.
Speak for yourself.
You're welcome and thankyou. ??
Good observation - more probable than getting acquired.
It's really weird. I personally don't think Advaxis should sell for anything under 8 billion, but the number 4.2 billion keeps coming to my mind when I think about Advaxis in a buyout. Completely irrational, but I thought I'd put it out there in case it actually happens for that price. Huh, maybe I know something.
Truthfully, I do not believe Advaxis will get acquired in 2017. Probably late 2018 or 2019. And will be for a lot, assuming they would have landed AA EU and FDA approval, among other things.
Definitely exciting times brewing!
Correct. Yes, you are {VERY} correct indeed.
----- one number -----
[FOUR POINT TWO BILLION]
----- I keep seeing this over and over and over -----
I guarantee that will not happen.
Mark this post.
If it is because of undisclosed things ongoing, this would favor a buyout scenario verses anything else
The revenue in the queue is nice and wets the appetite like fine hors d'oeuvres, but Advaxis needs to show conviction towards approval. An EU partner coupled with EMA submission would go a long way in conveying intentions.
I believe September will be a very busy month for Advaxis IR communications, assuming they are still on track for Q4 stated goals.
Delay? Until Advaxis communicates otherwise, Q4 has always been the most recently communicated timeframe for EMA submission. I fully expect we'll hear updates to the Advaxis plan in September, per recent IR communications. Given a recent response I had from IR, it can almost be 100% inferred that Advaxis EU partner courting is in high gear in prep for Q4 EMA submission.
I believe we'll learn all of this and more post September 6th.
Given that IR has indicated more plan communications are coming in September at conference time, it's possible they are just sitting on your question and will announce then. The EMA submission is slated for Q4. I do think many of their responses have been very "intentional" of late, and less boiler plate. This leads me to believe that material news is imminent. I wonder if they are close to getting an EU partner solidified?
Regardless, we'll learn soon enough.
Stock prices are at or above analyst targets at the end of 12-month prediction periods only 26% of the time. Stock prices reach analyst targets sometime during 12-month prediction periods only 35% of the time.
Stock price targets are more likely to be met when:
(1) market returns over the 12-month forecast period are higher;
(2) analysts have more experience; and,
(3) analysts are employed by the largest brokerage houses.
Analysts do not show persistent differences in abilities to forecast target prices. They do exhibit persistent differences in forecasting earnings and in picking stocks. The market does react to stock price targets but seems to understand that hitting stock price targets involves more luck than skill.
In summarizing the 12-month target forecasts,"it's all bullshit". So, if one builds a foundation of belief, it had better be on sound principles and logic or, like bullshit, when the <reign> comes it all washes away.
"We will not disclose."
-out
For those not aware of what is REALLY, REALLY going on right now, behind closed doors at Advaxis, I urge you to take heed on one thing and one thing only:
Pay close attention over the coming weeks.
Very, very close attention indeed.
There has been enough "undisclosed information" disclosed to form a clear story within the tea leaves.
"$20 per share", my ass.
<Filter>OFF</Filter>
Yes, do what's right for investors and sell the platform for $0.
Do the math.
<Filter>ON</Filter>
Monday, November 6, 2017
16:00 -17:00
Hall B
NEW STRATEGIES FOR THE TREATMENT OF GYNECOLOGIC MALIGNANCIES
Symposium Organized by: ADVAXIS
CHAIR: Christian Marth, Austria
16:00 MOA OF THE IMMUNOTHERAPY AXALIMOGENE FILOSLISBAC (AXAL) AND COMPARISON TO OTHER IMMUNOTHERAPIES
Sandro Pignata, Italy
16:20 AXAL CLINICAL DATA IN METASTATIC CERVICAL CANCER
Bradley Monk, USA
16:40 PHASE 3 CLINICAL TRIAL OF AXAL IN COMBINATION WITH PD-1 IN METASTATIC CERVICAL CANCER
Christian Marth, Austria
I suspect that next week will be very, very interesting, prior to heading into the The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference...
Fit hits the shan in about 4-6 weeks.
Y'all ready?
Have you also heard that ADXS is worth $20 pps? or about 800 million? Which translates to "worthless" for their tech:
Consider the following scenario -
Purchase Price- 800 million
Less Amgen projected payments - ~500 million
Less Cash on hand, infrastructure, etc. - ~300 million
Leaves ZERO for the actual tech. ZERO. So, consider the source. Consider the source.
Then ask yourself, "do I believe?"
First my context - I believe the stock should be valued right now somewhere between 1.5 and 2 billion. Throw in an EU and FDA approval, and add some forward looking statements around multiple constructs that include Cervical and Prostrate, among others? 4X that will seem cheap.
What's your sell price? $30? $60? More? Less?
If they were to sell for anything under 4-6 billion, it would be complete and utter robbery.
Possible yes. Probable, near-term? Unlikely. If so, why go through the process of an EU partnership and EMA, when you can buy the company now?
The two, (EU partner, Acquiring entity) are orthogonal at best. So, a remote scenario that supports your theory is that in the process of evaluation of the Advaxis platform, current data, EMA submission, distribution, and EU partnership, the entity concluded that it would be more advantageous to acquire Advaxis now. And in doing so, decides to form an offer.
The problem with this scenario?
I don't think the price will be right because it favors Advaxis to get a very high valuation before ever submitting for EMA and/or gaining any sort of approval. I remain completely unconvinced that an entity is willing to fork up 8 billion or more now to acquire Advaxis. The offer would have to be that compelling to sell now because the potential is 10's of billions.
I believe the BOD knows this very well. If not, then the platform is not the "real deal" and it's a mute point.
I don't think so. I think it's more related to positioning around an EU partner and/or some sort of licencing, followed by EMA submission. If all of these events transpire, the valuation should land between 1.5 and 2 billion in short order.
Question: "As part of the EMA submission process can you share if Advaxis is required to provide a distribution plan, that includes a distribution partner?"
Answer: "We are not disclosing this information."
I believe the answer tells the entire story. They are in process of establishing a plan that includes a distribution partner. As you can see the answer is really binary, i.e. "yes the EMA requires X and Y." I believe the question was misinterpreted.
Thus my assertion that a buy-out this year is not in the cards.
Yah, I saw the impact on DNDN, and they cost about 100K per dose - crazy.
That was not my response from IR. Not even close.
What is your gut guess? Is it closer to 100%? 50%?
Then my next question is why do you think that?
Look, there has been a lot of BO/Acquisition talk on this board, since DOC left, and Lombardo was installed as interim CEO. But, what has really changed? Nothing.
Advaxis is announcing there plan in September and in process of EMA submission, etc. for Q4.
If there is an acquisition, it will be a complete surprise because some entity is going to have to fork over many billions.
The answer to the question was simple. An example response -
"As disclosed within the EMA process, requirements are outlined blah, blah, blah. You can learn more from their public domain here."
The answer given would have been a much better match to this type of question:
"Can you share your distribution partner for EMA submission?"
There is a difference.
There is enough contextual information outside of IR's response to make a more than reasonable supposition and assertion wrt an acquisition.
What do think the odds are that Advaxis gets acquired in 2017?
Hmmm, I wonder if they'll go after that 50 day moving average today?
Unless somebody is willing to pony up 8 billion or more, I don't think the BOD will consider an offer. They know what they have. They know what is coming. They know what is the potential.
Frankly, when you are talking about a platform that could very well be worth 10's of billions, 8 billion is cheap.