If you really understand what has transpired over the last several months, and what is in the queue wrt EMA/EU, then you will recognize Advaxis is on the cusp of significant material events ranging from being acquired to securing an EU partner w/ EMA submission.
All of these events reflect a substantial valuation increase far beyond the absurdly low numbers projected by those calling for a sale of $20, $15, and even $10 pps, which equate to 800, 600, and 400 million valuation respectively. All obscenely and borderline ludicrous projections in an acquisition scenario, especially given that several of the major fund investors would potentially take significant losses in these contexts.
Having said this, I find it hard to believe that true long investors do not recognize the potential in front of us, which leads me to question understanding, among other things.
I will say this. Advaxis will not sell for anything less than 4 billion for a couple of reasons:
1. They are not for sale right now at that price
2. Their current priority is securing an EU partner as a requirement for EMA submission
3. Their current POR clearly indicates confidence in AA for both EU and FDA.
After item 3 transpires, you can forget about any valuations under 5 billion. And one more thing, for those individuals that can't get past the idea of going from $6 to $120 - "NEWS FLASH!", it doesn't work that way (unless some entity makes an acquisition, which is EXTREMELY remote right now). If Advaxis is to see it's valuation grow, it will be in increments as material events unfold. So, if, if, if Advaxis is heading in this direction, it's possible we'll see the following unfold:
First, EU partner announcement with upfront funding from the partner - this will result in a very significant rise in the pps for 2 reasons:
(a) The funding will remove dilution concerns
(b) Securing an EU partner will further validate future direction and set market expectations around imminent EMA submission (this will be HUGE)
Second, EMA submission - this will be the nail in the coffin for shorts
I expect these 2 events alone will push the pps well beyond a billion dollar valuation. And what we have NOT included are orthogonal, material events transpiring over the course of the next few months. Post AA EU and FDA, Advaxis could be sitting on a valuation in excess of 3 billion. From a 3B valuation position, an acquisition could easily see 6-7 billion (given the versatility of the platform), and this can all happen before 2019. That's one scenario, and it's a conservative one at that.
My gut tells me 2 things:
1. Advaxis might sell early, i.e. before 2017, if the price is over 4 billion.
2. More likely, if what I think about the platform is true and that it really does work, Advaxis must KNOW right now that they are sitting on a solution that will be worth 10's of billions one day.
MARK THIS POST.
