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No, they really don't. They have a construct in PIII with SPA. It's a matter of time only now. BP is NOT needed anymore to get this to approval.
BP will be interested in buying or licensing HER2 and this construct will command a much higher price if cervical is approved first, but this just isn't in the cards. HER2 will most likely be sold or licensed in the near future to add to our cash position and fund other constructs.
This is ridiculous...you state as fact what you only assume. Did you forget already about the 2M+ share days in September when the stock tanked and short interest declined by over 2M?? That wasn't the street waking up and saying "Hey, Advaxis canned the CEO 2 months ago....company must suck....let's sell"
I keep reading that Advaxis can't continue without dilution, that big institutional investors aren't buying because of this fear. But TL already stated how he's moving forward without dilution - he selling or licensing HER2.
This construct alone should bring in enough dollars to carry us for a long while. Once this deal is done, and I hope it's soon, the sp should rise significantly. Add a partnership for the entire platform, as stated, and it goes up even more. Add good trial results and it's off to the races.
The volume change is totally insignificant, the dose did not change.
What is significant is that the trial is no longer recruiting. There were only supposed to be 30 patients dosed, so it seems they are on track. They are in a data collection period now, getting results from those already doses. This phase will complete by August 2018 and we can expect results in 2019.
Again, nothing unexpected.
I'm not really seeing HOT as bridging the gap. I see it more as a one or the other type of treatment. HOT can be used off the shelf in poorer countries/situations where insurance or payment is a problem. NEO will be used if outcomes are much better then HOT as it will cost exponentially more in wealthier countries or for those willing to shell out for it.
Also, bridging the gap would require clinical trials using both treatments and I don't see this as likely. Cancer treatments in particular are very concise, scripted treatments and doctors don't vary from established protocols for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that insurance companies won't pay for it.
Iggy - is this something that Noelle could clarify? Seems maybe she could since it's just a clarification of something already stated.
What is a clinical commercial partner? What role will they play in the advancement of Advaxis's technology?
If no one else will I'll call Monday and ask.
I don't believe they've filed yet. Material event, isn't it? I took it to mean the submission to final approval turn around time. A bit longer than my estimate of 12 months. As to the additional data requested, I don't think it means they've filed. Just that they're in talks, much like the FDA.
The comment "for the entire platform" I took at face value. One partner for everything, one announcement.
I agree, TL has had the time to get something done and is probably dotting the i's and crossing the t's now. I suspect he's been working on this even before DOC left. Secret meetings with the BOD, etc. TL know it was coming , that's for sure.
Sure hope we get a nice xmas present!!
Found this little gem on the facebook page just now. I haven't had a chance to listen to the presentation, so could someone confirm??
Bill,
I took a look at the FDA release, and if I'm reading the one you're referring to it's talking basically about stem cell therapies for regenerative medicine. Nothing to do with Advaxis. If I'm wrong please provide a link so we may have a look for ourselves. If I'm correct please be more careful with your interpretation of these types of things.
Someone putting out PR's in the form of science news. We hear of approval any day now.
Bourbon - If the tutes have resources to analyze and invest in stocks light years beyond what retail has, do you consider it wise to have a mechanical rule in place to sell the stock without looking at the factors the caused it to crash or to worse, ignore upcoming company events that will cause the sp to recover?
This is the consequence of what you say, and I find that hard to believe.
Well, I asked my question on the assumption you were correct FBG. Why don't you answer it on the same assumption?
So I was asked my take on why Fidelity got out. Interesting question, but the answer is always the same:
They got out because they think they can make more money elsewhere. But for anyone who needs to ask this question, on this board, I can think of a better one:
If you believe Fidelity is so smart, if they have the resources to value Adxs better than anyone else, if perhaps they have inside information that we don't that suggest Advaxis is a dead pony, then all who believe this and still own Adxs stock, warrants or options need to answer this question:
Why haven't you gotten out yet???
And frankly, I don't care if you answer me or not. But it may be important to answer it for yourselves.
And to anticipate the next question: I haven't gotten out because I still believe in the science.
-We have a construct in PIII. And 70% of all PIII new drugs are successful.
-And we have a construct for sale that is about to be approved in canine osteo, the best model for human pediatric osteo. Which is a solid tumor that expresses HER2, the same antigen in breast cancers. (Can you anticipate the press release??)
-And we have EU application submission by end of Q1 2018.
-And we have combo trial results in prostate to look forward to.
-And we have milestone payments for NEO.
-Etc, etc, etc.
So for all who believe Adxs is going nowhere I'd recommend putting your money where your mouth is and sell at a loss, like Fidelity did.
I can't recall if this has been published already. We knew they were working on some biomarkers. The title indicates they may have found a way to identify patients who will respond better to treatment with Axal. This is significant because the percentage of success will only go up, although in a smaller population.
You've made me see the light Dew.
Why would anyone pay for HER2?
Why would anyone pay for an antigen that is on the cusp of being approved in canine osteo, which happens to be the best model for pediatric osteo?
Why would anyone pay for a construct that has fast tract designation by the FDA?
Why would anyone pay for a construct whose target runs across multiple cancers, including breast cancer?
Why would anyone pay for these things?? They are worthless.
FBG - You really can't have it both ways, can you? You say "the market" like we're NOT being manipulated, but many of your post suggest we in fact ARE being manipulated.
Not sure I agree, though it is an individual preference.
It really all depends on what you believe will happen in the next few months I think.
Advaxis has a lot of potentially significant events coming up within the next few months, we hope. EU application submission I believe to be the biggest one, but good trial results, especially combo data can propel the stock as well as partnerships and possible licensing/sale of HER2. All very likely to cause the sp to increase rapidly with little notice.
Say for arguments sake the warrants are at 1 and the cs is at 3. Also say you have 10K to invest.
You can get 10K warrants or 3333 shares of cs.
IF events unfold as we would like and the stock goes to 20, your warrants are now worth 200,000 but your cs would be worth only 66,000. BIG difference. There is LOTS of leverage at these levels.
There seems to be some confusion about the warrants, so, since I've been in them since shortly after they've been issued, and they are all I own, let me explain:
The following is based on Advaxis warrants, with a conversion price of $5;
1. The market price of the warrants will NEVER rise above the cost of the common stock. It would mean buying something with an expiration date for more than the same exact thing without one. Won't happen.
2. The market price of the warrants will NEVER be more than $5 below the market price of the common stock. (Again, this is for Advaxis with a $5 conversion price). There are computer algos used by hedge funds or whoever to look for exactly this scenario to make a quick no risk profit.
This is best explained by example...
Say Advaxis stock is selling for $7. And for some reason the warrants are at $1. The algo sees this, snaps up all the warrants it can (raising the price as it does so), immediately converts to common stock by paying the $5. So cost so far is $1 plus the $5 conversion price = $6. Then the algo immediately sells what is now common stock on the open market for $7, making a nice $1 profit with no risk at all. I assume the folks who do this can make it happen at the speed of light, unlike us retail who are at the mercy of different laws and rules of our brokers.
3. The closer the warrant is to the stock price, i.e. the higher the premium, the more bullish it is for the company in general. It means folks are expecting good things to happen before the expiration of the warrants and are willing to pay more for them. For the record, I've NEVER seen Advaxis warrant premium above $3 until very, very recently. It's a good sign.
4. As the expiration date approaches, the premium will fall, as there will be less time to see any benefit from them. The warrant price will still NEVER go more than $5 below the common stock price, however, for reasons stated above.
5. If the company is sold, the warrants are locked it at the conversion price as common stock. So if Advaxis is sold for $50, the warrants will be worth $45. So you can see from this the leverage you can get at our current sp. Right now the warrants are selling for what 30% of the common, but if we get to $50 at worst it will be 90% of the common, but probably a little better.
6. When the warrants expire, they are worthless. My scottrade guy told me that they won't convert for me the way they would with options at the expiration. DO NOT LET THIS HAPPEN!! My plan is to start converting my warrants towards the end of January a bit at a time as events unfold. EU application should provide a nice boost to the sp, and I want that leverage.
I can't think of much else. This is my understanding - if anyone sees an error please say so. Likewise if you just have something to add.
GLTAL's
Go read my pinned post "What is Advaxis really worth if sold"
The first group of cancers, the one including breast cancer, are those cancers that express HER2.
Do a subtotal on it. And remember, that subtotal is only if 10%, only 10% of those patients ever get treated. That's the potential.
A few million??
A few billion maybe.....
A glimpse into the forward thinking of this management team can be seen in the current job postings:
- Senior Director, Procurement
- Director, Clinical Operations
- Scientist I
It's clear these positions are posted by a company who fully believe they will be in business a long, long, time.
It's clear anyone applying for these positions are intelligent and experienced. They will ask tough questions on the viability of the company and it's products. It's highly doubtful they would take the positions without doing their research and being convinced it's a long term deal.
I would add, though some may argue, that as a team that will have to look all new hires in the eye everyday, they wouldn't do so knowing, actually knowing, that Advaxis is doomed to failure. This is a team that believes in it's future.
As I do. Because the science has never failed, not once.
Their tweets suggest that they're going to be pushing Cervical pretty hard. I was hoping for some combo data with psa, but it makes sense to push cervical since ema submission is early next year. I hope Lombardo under promises and over delivers. Submission between xmas and new years would be great.
Thanks for your reply Gantor. I confess I was thinking out loud, and you may be right. But for arguments sake (the good kind of argument, that is) I would suggest that Lombardo would not be working alone. He has plenty of people around him who can educate him on the potential of the company and it's science. He won't be in the room alone during any negotiations either. And everything will have to get approval from the bod. I'm sure there are people who are much much better at making deals than running companies, and vice versa. Great leaders do both well. It doesn't look like Advaxis ever had both qualities in the same person.
If you think he his really trying to sell Advaxis, can you give a reason why he wasn't named as permanent CEO? Could it be the bod doesn't want it to be that apparent Advaxis is for sale? Not that it matters much, but I would like to hear your thoughts.
Is not naming Lombardo permanent CEO a bit of a tell as to the bod's plan?
If the real plan is to sell Advaxis, why not just name him CEO, let him work his deals(s) and be done with it?
It seems to make some sense to suggest the bod doesn't want a new CEO interfering with any deals Lombardo might make, but don't want the company sold either. So a reasonable plan might be to make him interem CEO, let him work his deals but not sell the company, and make Advaxis mc rise to unprecedented levels while the trials progress and it becomes apparent Advaxis is the real deal, with a platform technology that can't be denied. Then search for a CEO.
If this is the scenario playing out I'd be they'd have their pick of CEO.
You know I agree Blue. It's so interesting to watch not just faith in the platform go out the window, but any associated logic as well, by some on this board. Yes, we've been hammered, but not once have we gotten bad news on any trial. And that is where the logic comes in. Best ever results in cervical per the GOG, and some want to give it away for peanuts. All because of a 40% destruction of shareholder value by a CEO who is now gone. Besides milestone payments, this company hasn't earned a penny, so in my mind the 40% destruction is a phantom, merely a paper loss at this point. (Unless of course you believe that the drop is due to leaked bad news, despite a falling short interest, which is bullish, but there's that pesky logic again.....) We don't have any reason to believe Advaxis is worth less than when we first bought in, and lots of reasons to think it's worth more - such as Neo, hot, dual, partnerships with combo regimens, etc.
Keep posting any insights you have from talking with others more in the know, we love it! (Well, as least those of us who don't want to sell for 20 but will be happy with 15....)
Advaxis has been investigated multiple times in the past, but not recently. While I believe some questionable things, perhaps illegal things, are going on, is Advaxis at fault? Or Adage? If it's both, working together, which is something I doubt, it will be difficult if not impossible to prove. People tend not to leave any paper trail when they engage in that type of activity.
A lawsuit may just drive the sp down further and get us nothing in return.
Anyone else notice that Advaxis is tweeting almost daily about the conference in Vienna? I don't remember them doing this for other conferences, but I could be mistaken. If I'm not, are they trying to send a signal?
I have to admit there is some truth to what you say. However, every once in awhile there is a nugget of DD that is of value. For example, someone on this board posted that one of our trials was put on hold. We didn't know why at the time, but it was literally days before it was announced. It eventually came to light that it was because of a patient death. And yeah, the stock tanked after the announcement. Savvy investors could have gotten out ahead of others, and I'm sure some did. (No, I wasn't one)
You opinion, to wait for PIII to be released, is valueless to people currently reading this board. You have to take big risks to make big money, but you know that already.
And PLENTY has changed over the last 4 years, but no, it's not reflected in the share price. But you don't seem too interested in the details, so I'm not getting into it for you. Most of us are interested in the details, and we're at a loss to say why the MC isn't much greater at this time. But we've done our dd and are sticking with it. I suggest you do yours.
FBG - with all due respect, if you didn't think we were a favorite to win when you first invested, surely you thought that somewhere along the way, like when we were at 30...
Just saying...
I feel you, but let me respond with an analogy:
You started the game as a favorite to win, at least everyone thought so. But the opposition paid off the refs, and it's been a struggle the whole way. But you fully believe you persevered, despite had a few miscalls (go have fun with that one!) but you stuck to your gameplan. You put in a new quarterback. 4th quarter now, within spitting distance of the goal line, if you cross you win.
Now, your most loyal fans are calling for you to punt?????
In the application process EMA gives itself 6 months to respond. The clock starts ticking the day the application is submitted. During this 6 months, the clock can be stopped twice, up to 3 months each, for the agency to request additional data. It looks like they've hired a consultant or are working directly with the EMA to avoid these "time-outs" as they're called. It would be ideal if we could get approval in 6 months or less after submission.
FBG - I appreciate your concern, really. My plan is to start converting to shares in January, a bit at a time depending on how events unfold. I believe we're at a turning point with Advaxis and you know I still have lots of hope. The science is sound, with best ever results in the GOG trial and the canine vaccine proving both HER2 and activity in solid tumors. While I agree with you that the company has been mis-managed, I still believe it's worth way more than the 1B you give it. You know I've tried to base my estimate on some sound principles using conservative estimates of likelihood of success to determine yearly revenue of constructs already in clinical development. Those numbers are pinned for all to see and comment on. If only 10%, just 10%, of those numbers come in yearly sales will exceed 3B. If Advaxis is sold you've said yourself 3-6x earnings is the norm. So yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree.
It's apparent you want out, and I get it, I really do. We've been here so long you're like the brother I don't get along with but love anyway. I believe I have a bit more patience than you (if you don't mind my saying so) because the science takes time. Clinical trials are hard to put together, hard to co-ordinate, hard to maintain, hard to recruit for and they take TIME for results to become apparent. I get this because I've read hundreds of trials some of which span decades. I believe Advaxis is so far along now that the BS that Adage has done, or is doing, won't matter in the end. If the trials prove good Advaxis will soar. I'm resigned to the fact that people like me and you and everyone else who takes the time to post here are merely along for the ride. Retail has no control, never has. We post to speculate and reassure each other, or to warn each other (again I appreciate you concern over the warrants), and some to just annoy.
Good luck FBG, and also to all true longs.
I do care iggy - I'm all in on the warrants exclusively and they have an expiration date - about a year from now. I'm as patient as they come with this company but I'd really like to see some material events soon so I can actually leverage those warrants. Good thing EU submission isn't the only thing on the radar.
Facts don't matter much to some on this board. You'll get a reply filled with run-on sentences referencing obscure and unrelated historical events from and entirely different company, from an entirely different era, topped off with some quote from someone most haven't heard of to make him sound smarter than we all believe he is all designed to make you think he's answered the question or concern but never actually doing so.
Useless and a waste of time.
Glad you agree it's conservative, though I know you believe these "wonderland" of antigens will rain down death and destruction on all warriors prepared for battle in the nuclear age, not to mention the Roman legions.
But should you take a moment to consider, even briefly, how you would evaluate the potential of Advaxis, since, you know, you've said publically you're an investor and have never shorted even one measly share of this stock - I'm sure the board would like to know, and the future of all soldiers on the battlefield are at stake.
So Terry, put up or shut up - What is the potential of Advaxis and how do you arrive at you're number??????????????
Best, mp
Mca posted a few months ago. It was great to hear from him!
I'm not sure we'll ever know the real reason(s) for the delay, and I have no reason to believe that Han wouldn't repeat exactly what he told Blue to anyone else who called. It makes sense and it certainly could be true. And it can also be the cover story, or the spin so to speak, especially if it's partially true. Let me postulate:
Sure Advaxis knows they're under pressure, but what if, just what if, they are in the middle of negotiations with an EU partner and don't want to submit before those negotiations are complete? They can't really say that, so they say what they can, the thing that's partially true.
I admittedly don't know how much data the GOG has or what it would take to put it in "working order" so to speak, but I agree it would be a bit nieve to think they didn't anticipate this. They do, after all, have people that have been involved in this type of thing in the past. So the delay may just be for another reason. Again, I don't believe we'll ever really know.
As for Adage and the tutes abandoning.... Well, it seems some certainly have, and not in a good way. It also seems there is some covering of short positions. But what doesn't make sense to me are all these large block trades that occur simultaneously. Everyone here should agree that these were pre-arranged, and in such a way as to not effect the share price. That doesn't smell of anyone abandoning, it smells of changing the numbers that are in certain boxes on certain forms. With the sole purpose of making money in the process.
Look, the last few weeks have seen Adage selling and shorts covering, all the while the sp is going down. Shorts covering should make the sp rise, but it hasn't.
Now Adage sells again...who doubts what the short interest will be the next time we see it? I'll bet anyone it goes down again. So is declining short interest bullish or bearish??
Certainly interesting times for Advaxis. And while management does play a key role it the success or failure, the science and the clinical trial results are more important. And we have had no significant news on that front in awhile. I'm looking forward to November to get our first glimpse of combo results.
Advaxis has stated EU submission by EOY. Last I checked we're only a few days into Q4.