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I agree.
It could potentially go lower in the near term.
VST is a neat company.
Its sad that its value is being tethered to the value of Bitcoin. Sure they own crypto, but what they are doing really has nothing to do with the value of crypto currencies. Its more complicated than that.
Blockchain is such a nasty buzz word. Its encompasses so many things that its hard for the average person to understand. VST and Blockchain Assembly are just building future minded companies.
For a bad analogy- people still use gold and silver regardless of the price. Jewelers and Heavy Industry may have more demand if gold is cheaper. Gold Miners love higher prices. On average though those industries aren't going anywhere. A company like DeBeers makes money regardless of what happens to the price of Diamonds or Gold. They own part of the entire vertical.
In terms of the new economy, VST and BA can be in all 3 ends of the industry and make money regardless of what the associated crypto currencies are doing. The benefit of software is they don't need to be tied to any one currency or technology. They can also use their own where needed.
So the real value of VST is the portfolio companies and the people within them, not the hype of crypto.
Its still early in the game. I feel bad for the guy thats down 40% today, but its really a long term play everyone here should be looking at (seems like most do?). If the market gives them the opportunity to do what they're setting out to do- they'll be huge.
Obviously- only invest money you can afford to lose. Nothing is ever a given with these things. Market Makers naked short good companies into oblivion all the time. But all things being equal VST has a great shot at this thing.
I was never big on charts for companies like this.
Like I've bought ~3-4% of the common since August. I know of a couple others who have done the same. I'd get more but the SEC 5% rule is really annoying.
How do you account for random people that are interested in the company? Someone dropping 100k on common at this point (StockBarber stop rolling your eyes) would swing the price wildly- the average daily volume right now is only 10-40K. Tiny. Charts have no insight into that type of thing. Price could swing faster than you can flip the acquired shares.
The last year or more has been mired by a convertible mess, chart clearly reflects what that does to a company. Once the toxic debt guys are clear, it could spike, but theres no guarantee.
A reverse split is also not a guarantee. The company has a lot of ground to make up on its market cap, and it'd be foolish to do it right now. Maybe in 6 months to a year if things turn up? With the series notes out there factored in the common should still be worth 3-5X where its at now. Having the price at 50 cents would look nice but at 0.001 I feel like it'd be less volatile and safer right now.
Anyway- I hope a bunch of people here bought at 0.0002, if it goes to 0.0004-5 that'll be a good way to recoup earlier losses.
So in theory- if share count goes up 6X, but revenue goes up 8X, that would imply decent value was created.
But in application- its tanked the share price. Good lesson in supply and demand I suppose.
Cash position is getting stronger. They are almost done with cash payments for Connexum- that will free up a solid amount next year. Some of the losses are normal accounting tricks.
Barber is right though- doesn't matter until you can see it in the filings.
Ouch.
I started to write a long reply as to why I think the company is still good for the long term.....but...I remembered all the messages I got the last time I was actively posting.
99% of traders wont read the filings, don't understand the business and don't look at the situation closely. They just look at the board sentiment and get on the wagon if things are looking up.
Im starting to think penny stocks shouldn't be available unless you pass some kind of market awareness test.
I talked to Scott recently- and would love to share, but I'm worried that it'll inspire someone to ignore the rest of the situation.
What to do? I guess I'll go back to lurking.
Which one is that? I'm aware of a 400k consolidation not 1.5?
*waves*
I'll send you a picture of my E-Trade. Might be good for a laugh.
A family member of the CEO and myself represent the issued Series B. We haven't converted.
Of the Series C issued- the holders I know also haven't converted. The other 30% I can't speak for though.
I've been following the numbers on the OTC short report site and your daily dilution log. The gap between the two doesn't indicate true short volume?
If not I've made a mistake.
It doesn't negate my long term feelings or main motivation for buying. A short squeeze would have been nice though.
Next time I'll DM you before I say something...ha...
I've been getting shares the last few weeks bidding below the average.
Foolish or not- its a decent way to get shares right now. The short volume has been immense.
I'm one of the few people on here that believes GAWK should be in the 0.002 - 0.004 range, but by next week? Wouldn't count on it.
Another acquisition will help- but until people see that Scott and Chris can manage these acquisitions it probably wont do much for the market's perception of the company.
Maybe.
Go look at companies like Twilio. Even with the preferred Gawk is still undervalued.
Warts are warts. But the sector and tech in general have outsized valuations right now.
The possibility of dilution and a reverse are real- but its not correct to ignore how the sector is valued.
I was hoping for more from the call- but I imagine things are going to be extremely boring for a few quarters.
10 grand is a lot of cash. I'm deeper in the hole but still appreciate your pain.
I have some equipment with WebRunners, and a few of the Connexum phones. The fact that they have a good network and everything works is a big part of my positive outlook. Most penny stocks have no business at all.
What number did you call?
1 million shares at 0.01? So 10 grand?
I believe the total from the convertibles that passed on the consolidation was a little over 200 million shares.
If it hits 0002-0003 I'll start buying again.
I think the near to medium term is going to continue to suck, but 2-3 years out things should be higher.
Definitely not for the the faint of heart or those expecting a quick return.
How much did you buy if you don't mind me asking?
I wasn't able to dial in using my Google Voice account, I had to use my cellphone.
Dont they call that a dead cat bounce? Didn't go very far.
I'll be happy if a small acquisition is announced.
They might show a profit in the next few quarters so I imagine they will talk about the road ahead mostly.
Any T-Trades today or yesterday?
Paying a premium for the space to be outside of town. They need to find a better Commercial Agent on the next one.
I pay less for my building in Irvine, CA. Way hotter Commercial market here.
If they start hiring B list guys for above market they'll never get ahead. Should be looking at remote developers nation wide while they're still in cash burn mode.
Good to see them acting like a real company though.
My IB and E-Trade accounts are showing a last trade of 0.008. Hopefully I'm not hallucinating.
Happy Friday :)
When they finish updating the look and feel of Connexum's flagship product the company should get more exposure.
They have a better reseller pitch than a lot of the big mid market providers. Normal IT guys will be motivated to put them in place over other solutions. Healthy commissions to channel partners should provide solid organic growth and in turn exposure on the stock side.
Looks like one of the "Market Makers" whose been collecting shares the last few weeks did a major end of day dump. Probably only made 3-4k.
Still feel like the company should have a higher market value. 2.5 - 3 mil would be fair, although privately worth way more. Might need a few more quarters at the current revenue without any C note conversions for things to start edging higher. 0.003-0.005 seems like a fair value in the mean time though.
But screw me though- what do I know? Baffles me that this company is worth nothing but things like CLOK are valued at 13MM.
FYI- Gawk's hosting business is 3% of their revenue. The datacenter is useful for the VoIP business but that's about it.
They are more in the space of 8x8, Ringcentral and Earthlink. Yea that Earthlink is still around and sells wholesale VoIP. Connexum has solid features in relation to that space. They have their own PBX software, they arent paying a company like Broadsoft so their margin per customer gets a boost over some competitors.
GoGrid was bought by DataPipe last year- wouldn't call that company a winner but they had great staff.
It'll be somewhere between 450M and 650M.
I dont follow- what does John McAfee's weird mix of companies have to do with anything?
I was able to talk to V Stock Transfer because of my prior relationship with Gawk. I have part of the Series B and haven't converted it.
With that said- if I told you the answer they gave me- would you believe me? Would it change anything? The answer is exceptionally boring and everyone will find out when the financials come out. The issue of 3 billion shares being allocated still looms, won't matter that 15-20% of it has actually be issued.
Everything public about Gawk sucks right now- the core business is solid though. If markets are truly rational then the market cap will catch up in time.
The people looking to day trade this need to look elsewhere. Scott is working on getting clear of past obligations and making the company profitable for 2017. His job is to provide value for shareholders not speculators.
Its worth noting that Scott didn't need to do the current pivot with Gawk. He could have bought WebRunners and Connexum in a new shell.
Doesn't change any of your concerns with the current share structure but at least he did the right thing for his investors. If they get revenue to 10-12MM/year the C holders will be less scary. In the mean time you're right and anyone looking to sell into a bounce needs to not get their hopes up.
Everything you said is right- but I believe they are actually building a company which is the X factor for this stock. If you have any IT friends have them try Connexum. Check it again in 3 months- they are constantly improving it. They're on par with RingCentral or 8x8 in features, the interface just needs some updates. I believe they have a timeline for that though. They also are exceptional for telemarketers. Providing services to political autodialers is "ugly" but the checks cash.
VoIP/Telecom is a huge space, and there are better/bigger companies. But there are also hundreds of small companies that have been around for close to 20 years. Most of these companies don't have an exit strategy, and the owners have them on auto pilot with long term customers.
Scott can issue the new series D to these companies. Taking the revenue of these smaller companies and upgrading their customer's experience with Connexum's software is a decent play.
Preferred D shares converting hurts in the immediate term- but if you look at that revenue over a 3-5 year span, you have decent share holder value for the exchange.
Also, to be honest- I don't think the average user on this forum is right for Gawk. Some of the people buying today may get the bounce they want, but the company is building long term value, so unless you want to gamble a few thousand long term your right that there are better buys.
Didn't know 14 of the Preferred C were issued.
As far as I understood it- 1 went to WebRunners, and 3-4 went to that early investor in Gawk. Doyle?
The ones I'm aware of are still holding and won't be converting. Doesn't preclude them from changing their minds. Thats why I've been comparing what I know to be the average value of private VoIP companies of the same size to the authorized. If it costs a PE firm 14 million to buy a similar company and the public market reflected that the stock would be 0.005 to 0.02.
The series D is for acquisitions. So in theory those being issued is a good thing, since it implies revenue growth. Assuming proper diligence in the acquisition.
The increase in authorized C is a function of the preferred for those that are asking. Need to have head room in case someone in the preferred decides to convert. I could be wrong though.
Has Gawk's TA ever shared this info?
Thats the thing. The product Cipherloc is building wouldn't have stopped Target's hack. Doesn't matter how well things are encrypted if the attacker can get the application in front of the encryption to do a dump of user's data.
Security is a brutal space. Target has an incredible team and they got hit hard.
If it stops at 100-150 million shares that will indicate its the convertible that didn't join the consolidation.
So far what is it at? $160K worth of stock?
Its potentially a huge need- but it has to be easy as f*** to use. Trying to be all things to all people is a death sentence. Focus on files, back end protocols or mobile protocols. Not all 3 at once.
Lets take out hacking for a second, and look at the issues of selling a tech product. I'll use file encryption for the example-
A lot of businesses still use paper credit card authorization forms. When you apply for insurance or a mortgage or rent a house a very high percentage still use paper forms. Where do those forms go when you are done? With a rental property it may end up in the drawer of the home owner and in the trunk of the agents car. An insurance office may have a few file cabinets that multiple people have access to.
Huge need for products to solve this problem. A lot of identities are stolen because of this physical paper trail. There's a global black market that will purchase stolen information.
When someone starts a tech company to go after this kind of issue, they tend to avoid high priced licenses and go with purely opensource systems. By the time a company would be on the radar of a sales team its already in production. The best person for them to sell to are new companies, they can avoid the entire integration and conversion issue of an already running company. But those companies need to know Cipherloc exists and want to afford the cost of the license.
So the sales cycle becomes a "wait and see". They need to be working a lot of leads for a long period of time before they start to see deal flow.
With all that in mind- I would want to be building an appliance or a direct to consumer product. I would make the encryption secondary to the pitch, and focus on how I could make the lives of small/medium companies easier and provide protection.
Let me know how I can clarify.
With high level technology claims it can be hard to avoid an "infinite regression". Generalities can be poked and prodded.
However- its been my experience that if you cant pitch a product quickly or simply its hard to sell. CLOK could have the real thing- but IT people are bastards. Getting in front of the right individuals and actually proving it has killed a lot of startups.
Touches on a good point- they really shouldn't be public in my eye.
If they truly want to create the product they say they do, and they can truly deliver on it- then good. However they should be doing it with accredited investors money and not random small cap individuals. So many things go into execution.
Startups can take years to incubate and get their legs under them. Enterprise sales deals like the ones mentioned can take years to close. I can name a dozen software companies that have terrible products and huge revenue bases- it would be easy to destroy them- if only someone was willing to spend the money on making it possible.
Fair enough. Great reply.
If they are making a C++ library that can be included in Java or C# that would be a good start.
I would disagree that building an appliance is over the moon hard, but their other reasoning for not doing it is valid. Chinese Companies like Tyan and Supermicro are actually great to work with for building appliances. Licensing to suppliers rather than end users is a harder sales strategy. Since the company is public I would say that their strategy does not fit the expectations of where their money is coming from. If they were private I would be more supportive.
#4 is valid- however if you're attacking/hacking someone for material gain I would say that puts you in the window breaking category. The quickest and easiest way in
#3 I cant agree that they are better until they release something. However if the product turns out well a sales team can get over this hurdle with time. As Jordan Belfort says- get off the phone with the ones that arent interested and find the people who are.
Last thought- quoting companies like BofA and Cisco is potentially misleading. The purchasing departments of these companies have strict processes and they would need to see adoption and better capitalization before touching a company like this. I would be more impressed if they said a smaller appliance company like Barracuda. Quoting Facebook is a joke- they are diehard opensource and build a lot of their own tools and systems. Examples you can find are their HipHop engine and the OpenRack / OpenServer initiative.
I look at public companies the same way I do private and startup. The pain points I mention are what I would tell a startup before I invest in a round. If I wouldn't invest in them privately then I wouldn't recommend small cap individuals with far more to lose invest in them publically.
The biggest weakness with any system are the users that use it. You yourself can be hacked. Doesn't matter how great your technology is if someone uses you or tricks you. Check out NLP, Social Engineering and Phishing / Keystroke logging if you'd like to learn more.
The second point to make is- it doesn't matter how good Cipherloc is, if the systems that are integrating with Cipherloc have weaknesses. Malicious hackers rarely waste time attacking protocols or have interest in individual files. Email servers, Database servers, websites, etc are more common targets.